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offense

It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

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As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

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Patriots Off-Season Football Review

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The 2018 offseason was workmanlike for the Patriots, sticking the same philosophy they’ve mostly gone with over the last 18 seasons. There wasn’t a seismic free agent pickup like Randy Moss or Darrelle Revis,, nor did they roll the dice on a former star veteran in search of a title like Chad Johnson, Albert Haynesworth, Fred Taylor and others.

They watched some steady and beloved players walk to lucrative contracts and traded their way out of having to watch the same thing happen next offseason with Brandin Cooks.

The subtractions, including Nate Solder, Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler and Danny Amendola stung on multiple levels and will leave the 2018 Patriots with significant questions about who will replace them, but there is good overall depth that should make for good competition for those spots. There is a lot of potential in this 2018 Patriots roster that has not been tapped.

The additions and draft picks were surgically targeted at places of weakness but now those new players must take advantage of the opportunity and that all starts Thursday. There are still questionable areas, but with the best coaching in the league and high standards there will certainly be some new faces that excite us.

For those of you who checked out during the offseason, or just want a clean and easy football-only review of the comings and goings, here’s a quick run-thru of the Patriots’ offseason.

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Third-Down Offensive Personnel Deep Dive

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It shouldn’t be a surprise the Patriots’ third-down offense suffered without Julian Edelman in 2017, they fell from 4th to 10th in the league. Now they’ll be without Danny Amendola as well.


Using the impressive Sharp Football Analysis, I took a quick deep dive into how the offensive personnel changed between 2016 and 2017. How they compensated without Edelman…what worked, what didn’t.

Here’s what I found:

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Brady’s Favorite Receiver (The Open One) Is Back!

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When Julian Edelman was lost for the season the first question on my mind was who was going to make the tough catches on third down. Brady had grown to depend on Edelman in the toughest spots. From 2013-2016, Edelman had 135 targets on third down, 40 more than second-place Rob Gronkowski.

If there was a player for defenses to key off of on third down, it was clearly Edelman. But now, without Edelman, the Patriots are spreading the ball around, with Brady becoming reacquainted with the days when his favorite receiver wasn’t Edelman or even Wes Welker, it was the open one.

Now the Patriots have a balanced third-down attack that has seen little regression from where things left off in 2016 with Edelman still tearing up the field.

Here’s how the 2016 season looked for third down targets.

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Breaking Down Patriots Renewed Offensive Balance

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The Patriots locked up the top seed in the AFC Sunday with a 35-14 dispatching of the Dolphins, giving New England home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, an essential piece to the Patriots Super Bowl puzzle. The win was the Patriots 14th on the season, and while much of that success has been (rightfully) credited to the incredible resurgence on defense, a large component of this triumphant 2016 campaign has been the renewed balance between running and passing offensively. We know that Tom Brady has the ability to drop back and pass 50 times without much help from the run game and still will the Patriots to a win (see Divisional Round, 2014), but we have also seen just how vulnerable the Patriots become when Brady is asked to win the game by himself (see, 2016 AFC Championship Game). The lack of balance was one of the biggest factor that contributed to New England’s early exit last January, which is why instilling a consistent balance between run and pass will prove to be crucial as we head into the postseason.

Last season, according to Kevin Duffy of MassLive.com, the Patriots had their worst run/pass ratio in recent years, passing the ball 62% of the time and rushing on only 38% of plays. Coincidentally, the Patriots rushing attack ranked 30th in the NFL, which allowed teams like the Broncos to drop numbers off the ball and flood Brady’s passing lanes, without needing to give much thought to the run game. Granted, part of the lack of success running the football can be attributed to losing LeGarrette Blount to a hip injury in Week 14, but even with him, the rushing attack was still on pace to finish near the bottom in rush yards. The Patriots called upon the corpse of Steven Jackson and special-teamer Brandon Bolden to take the bulk of the carries in the AFC Championship Game, and as well as know, it did not go well.

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The Brave New(ish) World of the Patriots Offense

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Earlier this week on PatsProp, both Sam and Adam set the table for the “real” season. Go read their articles if you’ve missed them, they’re great. With the table set, let’s pass some hors d’oeuvres:

We’ve been here before. It’s week 13. The Patriots are 10-2, and in the drivers seat for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as long as they take care of their own business (ICYMI: The Chiefs beat the Raiders Thursday night). Tom Brady is putting up MVP calibur numbers. Bill Belichick made a trade several weeks before that made everyone’s head spin. and the Patriots offense is loaded with guys that have played together for years, make the same reads, think the same thoughts, and answer questions ambiguously.

Wait a minute…who is on the offense?

Or, more accurately, who played a major role in this offense exactly one year ago, and what has changed?

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Will the Black Unicorn mean the return of the 1,000 yard Rusher?

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That’s idiotic, you say, the Patriots haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher in 4 years, that’s not how their offense functions. BB and McDaniels never feed the rock to an RB enough for that to happen and the short passing game is essentially the running game. The additions they made in their offense (Hogan, Bennett, Washington, Lewis back from ACL) are in the passing game not rushing. And for God’s sakes, the offensive line was atrocious last year, they can’t put on Sunblock, let alone run block (you’re right that was a lazy joke). And now Jimmy G is starting, they’ll load up the box. You’re a dickhead, Conway.

All of those things can be true and there will still be a 1,000-yard rusher on the team.

A bit of history: the last time the Patriots had a 1,000-yard rusher was 2012 with current Detroit Lion and failed Jets experiment, Steven Ridley. Before that, the last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2010 with out-of-the-league Benjarvus Green Ellis. How did those two deadbeats gain 1,000 yards. I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “Baron Fernandez and Slob Bonks-out-see”.

That’s right it’s the return of the 2-tight end sets with 2 elite tight ends!

At least on paper, the “Bennett and Gronk” 2 TE set has a fair chance of being better than “Hernandez and Gronk“ (i.e. the most-efficient offense in NFL history according to DVOA). But even if it doesn’t match those levels, it all but guarantees that the Pats running attack will be elite. With Gronk and the Black Unicorn (best nickname in the NFL), the Pats will have dynamic playmakers that also happen to be complete and total football players. They can run block, pass block and run precise routes. BB favorites. Also this creates the perfect set of training wheels for Garropolo.

The reason why this is so important is Garropolo now has options at the line of scrimmage, lots and lots of options. For obvious reasons, two-TE sets with two good-to-great tight ends create more offensive mismatches than any other formation. You can leave both in and run with seven blockers or you can send them both out and have essentially a 4/5 WR set, or you can leave one in to block, send one out on a seam route. This forces a huge decision for defenses pre-snap because they have to declare how they’re going to defend the match-up with their on-field personnel 15 or so seconds before the play begins or risk an incredible mismatch.

Tom Brady eats this type of fear like dripping kale Froyo, Jimmy will eat them like deep dish pizza (he’s from Illinois). And because NFL coaches are a bunch of risk-averse checkers players, they will show their hand and likely bring in safety help.

An extra safety sprints on the field, then another. Very few safeties in the league can handle Gronk or Bennett one-on-one in run blocking. Or if a bolder coach, like Rex decides to leave an extra linebacker on the field to try to maintain some strength against the run, Brady and Garropolo have options: run the ball away from the linebacker, play action to freeze him, or attack him with one of the 20 quick release receivers currently on the roster. And if defenses actually show respect for the run and leave two extra linebackers on the field, Brady and even Garropolo will eat and eat well. Hell, even, Tim Tebow would eat well if he could hit Buzzards Bay.

The last concern is the O-line. 2012 had Solder and Vollmer at the Tackle spots (sound familiar?), Mankins at LG was an upgrade over whoever takes over, but Wendell and Connolly at C and RG are both downgrades to Stork or Andrews and the crew at RG. Scar’s back and the team will run block well. But the truth is that defenses will be so worried about getting burned that running lanes should amply open up. Scar will be declared a genius and he is, but not because of how well the Pats run this season, that will all be because of Bennett’s addition.

So all of this boils down to the question: who gets those touches. Who better to follow in the footsteps of Green Ellis and Ridley than LeGarrette Blount? In fact, that’s the kind of runner he is, he will have a hole at the line of scrimmage and we all know he has straight line speed that can take it 50 yards. Talk about hot takes: LaGarrette Blount on the docket for a cool g.

A few Residual notes: a.) 25.7% of Green Ellis’ 3,914 career yards came during the ’10 campaign! #FeelTheBenj!

b.) Steven Ridley has rushed for 2,907 yards in his career. He gained 1263 in 2012. 43% of his career happened that year.

c.) If Isaiah Crowell becomes available, and by all accounts he will, the Pats should pounce. He’s a perfect compliment to their RBs and would allow them to move on from Blount. He’d likely have 1,500 All purpose as a competent receiver as well.

1st POST MEA CULPA: I’d like to apologize to my family. I had a goal to quit the NFL and I fell off the wagon, barely made it through training camp last year, Goddammit I was right back in the mix to hear Mike Tomlin bitch about communications systems. Helped that TB beat Goodell in court. I love football and hate the NFL. Anyway, I’m back I understand that makes me some kind of hypocrite, but I’m good with it, I hope you are too. Gonna be a great season! And now we get to evaluate Jimmy.

Just more fuel to Brady’s fire.