How Does Pats’ 2017 Bend-Don’t-Break Defense Stack Up Historically?

For the last few years I’ve quantified the Patriots maddening-yet-effective Bend-Don’t-Break style of defense as such: Points-per-drive and Turnovers-per-drive measure the “Break” element, while Yards-per-drive and Plays-per-drive measure the “Bend” element. It’s not perfect, but it at least gives me the ability to get a sense of how bendy and breaky each defense of the Bill Belichick era has been.

How does 2017 stack up? Let’s take a look.

Couple things really jump out here. Let’s start with the positive, the Pats have been top-10 in points-per-drive, the most important column on here in each of the last five seasons. For as maligned as this year’s defense has been, they were still better than a far healthier, and some might say talented, defense in 2014. So the rest of the negativity I’m about the break down should all have this giant disclaimer: It was as hard as ever to score points on the Patriots defense.

Now let’s dive into the bad. Yards-per-drive the Pats were last in the league for the second time under Belichick, the first being 2011’s team that did make it to the Super Bowl. Same goes for Plays-per-drive, where they were 31st just like they were in 2011 as well. That defense was far less talented at all levels, especially in the secondary, so this is a little surprising to see that much regression.

Perhaps more surprising is how the takeaways fell to the second-worst level under Belichick. Overall the Pats were 11th in turnover differential with a +6, and that is the third -worst under Belichick. It’s one area that hasn’t gotten much, if any attention this year, that the defense is simply not getting interceptions or forcing fumbles at a rate we’re used to.

Overall the Pats were 25th in league in takeaways with 12 interceptions (t-18th ) and 6 forced fumbles (t-23rd).

But the good news is that the bottom-ranked defenses of 2010-2012 were largely takeaway dependent. Their points-per-game were not in the top 10, but as long as teams made mistakes the Pats defense would give them a chance to win. When teams didn’t make those mistakes like the 2010 Jets, 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens, the Pats lost.

So if there’s a silver lining to all this, it’s that the Pats don’t need to depend on turnovers. They hold teams to low point totals without them.

It’s also worth noting that the Pats led the league in average starting field position, something that is hugely impactful on the Bend-Don’t-Break since you’ve got a lot more yards and plays to give up when opponents are starting deep in their own territory. Perhaps that should be another element of these BDB stats.

The defense in 2017 had major turnover even before major injuries hit. Imagine how different things might look if Ninkovich, Hightower and McClellan were still out there. Or even if you threw Sheard or Long in there instead of say, a rookie off the Buffalo practice squad. That’s life in the NFL though and the Patriots defense proved once again that with good coaching and disciplined play they can still get it done no matter who is in there.