It shouldn’t be a surprise the Patriots’ third-down offense suffered without Julian Edelman in 2017, they fell from 4th to 10th in the league. Now they’ll be without Danny Amendola as well.
Patriots will be in an interesting spot to start the season. Played only 3 games in past 4 years without Edelman and Amendola.
— Kevin Duffy (@KevinRDuffy) July 3, 2018
Using the impressive Sharp Football Analysis, I took a quick deep dive into how the offensive personnel changed between 2016 and 2017. How they compensated without Edelman…what worked, what didn’t.
Here’s what I found:
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In 2016, the Patriots used three wide receivers (11 personnel) 73% of third downs (4th in NFL), with a success rate of 47%.
In 2017 it fell to 67%, well below the league average. Their success rate also dropped to 37%.
The 2017 team compensated for less three-wide-receiver sets with an increase in 2RB/2WR (21 personnel), from seven percent up to 12. But the success rate dropped, falling from 61% to 56%.
Two- tight-end/two-wide-receiver sets were up four percent and were more successful, from 42% to 56%.
BOTTOM LINE
The Patriots need to get more production out of their receivers this year. They have one of the most intriguing wide receiver depth charts that I can ever remember going into training camp. Not to say this will be a 2007 offense but going in there were too many targets to keep track of.
Now, between Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Britt, Patterson, Matthews, Dorsett, Berrios, and even McCarron maybe, Josh McDaniels should be able to find a three-wide-receiver package that can move the ball on third down. Those are the critical catches and it’s time for someone new to step up.