An Independent Patriots Blog
As I updated everything on the big Pats stat page I keep, it occurred to me that most of the important numbers I track supported what I thought I saw with my eyes.
This wasn’t a dominant offensive team, but it is an underrated defensive one. Inconsistencies on special teams also fed into what set this edition of the BB/TB Pats apart.
Let’s dive into five key stats that defined the inconsistent-but-hopefully-peaking 2018 Patriots.
[Read more…] about 5 Patriots Standout StatsAs a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.
Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.
There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.
Let’s dive in!
It shouldn’t be a surprise the Patriots’ third-down offense suffered without Julian Edelman in 2017, they fell from 4th to 10th in the league. Now they’ll be without Danny Amendola as well.
Patriots will be in an interesting spot to start the season. Played only 3 games in past 4 years without Edelman and Amendola.
— Kevin Duffy (@KevinRDuffy) July 3, 2018
Using the impressive Sharp Football Analysis, I took a quick deep dive into how the offensive personnel changed between 2016 and 2017. How they compensated without Edelman…what worked, what didn’t.
Here’s what I found:
Maybe this is a little too deep for a pregame read, but I dove into the long-term defensive stats of the Patriots under Bill Belichick and found the results really interesting.
Belichick has said in the past that the key stats for a defense are points, third down and red zone, with points being the most important. Entering today’s game, the Patriots are 2nd in points, 29th on third down and 27th in the red zone. The disparity is fascinating, and those stats are fueling the latest debates about how good the Patriots defense is or isn’t.
But when you look back since 2001, the picture that these stats paint isn’t much different than what we have today. In that time the Patriots have averaged 20th in third down defense, 17th in red zone defense, and 8th in points. As you can see from the charts, the third down defense is all over the map, while the points have been a model of consistency.
The media (and yours truly included) have been hammering the third down defense in recent weeks, but maybe it matters just a little bit less than we all think it does. The Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams weren’t always lock down on third down – 2001 (15th), 2003 (7th), 2004 (21st) and 2014 (16th).
When you compare those rankings to points allowed — 2001 (6th), 2003 (1st), 2004 (2nd), and 2014 (8th) — the latter seems far more important, even though the Patriots have only dropped out of the top-10 in points allowed in three seasons under Belichick (2002, 2005, 2011).
Obviously you always want to get off the field on third down and to prevent touchdowns in the red zone, but maybe we (I) should stop obsessing over those two stats like they’re the end-all, be-all of statistics.
Stats are for losers, right? Far be it from me to disagree with BB, but stats can give us a bigger picture. I always wait until four gams into the season before I jump into the stats. Anything before that is just simply too small a sample size.
As most of you know, the Patriots defense has been my long term pet project here on the blog. When you line up the 2016 stats and compare them to recent years it becomes even more clear that while the Patriots defense is good at preventing points, they’ve been pretty terrible at everything else.
I know there are plenty out there banging the “points allowed are all that matter,” but I disagree. Football is a complimentary game. Points allowed is certainly an important stat and the one at the bottom line, but the rest of the stats paint the picture of a defense that isn’t forcing turnovers, isn’t getting off the field and allowing far too long opponent possessions. That isn’t holding up their end of the bargain with the offense and special teams.
That said, it’s four games in. With Tom Brady back we can expect far more out of the offense going forward. That should help the defense. But still, every time in the first four games the Patriots have needed the defense to step up, they have failed to do so.
Let’s hope that changes in the coming weeks.
[Read more…] about A Closer Look at Patriots’ Advanced Defensive Stats
I don’t know how your Sundays during football season go, but mine typically revolve around football, food, and booze. Well, definitely more than just Sundays, but I digress…if you’re not feeling your regular football viewing place one weekend and want to mix it up in a big way, do it with the help of Uber and their new ride sharing program, “uberPOOL”.
uberPOOL allows you to share your ride and split the cost of your trip with another Uber rider headed in the same direction. The average time added to an uberPOOL trip is less than 5 minutes and each uberPOOL rider can bring one additional passenger along. And the best part? Take $5 off your first uberPOOL ride with code “PATSPOOL”!
Here’s a 5-stop bar crawl on steroids to get you and a friend locked and loaded for game day all around town:
[Read more…] about Use uberPOOL for a Boston Football Sunday Bar Hop!
One of the things that I think gives this blog a unique perspective is the long-term stats that I focus on. This time of year, when the 2015 Patriots’ regular season is in the books, I love seeing how this team stacked up against the rest of Belichick’s teams.
Despite an incredible amount of injuries this season, the Patriots didn’t drop off a whole heck of a lot from last year’s Super Bowl team. They certainly had an easier regular season schedule, but despite all the key departures of last offseason plenty of guys stepped up and that bodes extremely well for the direction of the franchise.
Let’s start with the DVOA of the offense, defense and special teams.
As you can see, this year’s team and last year’s we almost identical as far as the efficiency is concerned. One major place the Pats had significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball was:
It shouldn’t be surprising that the season Belichick finally got a legit third defensive end (Jabaal Sheard) and had a pure interior rusher (Dominique Easley) for most of the season, that the third down numbers were top 10.
Here’s a closer look at how the Pats did against individual receivers:
We can’t really say these rankings reflect directly on Butler or Ryan as they weren’t always on specific threats.
The real concern I have, and it’s reflected here, is at the slot corner position where Leonard Johnson had a huge target on his back the last two games. This also follows how teams generally beat the Belichick philosophy of taking away what you do best. That results in guys like David Tyree or Chris Matthews (SB49) having big games. That could be where the playoff games are won or lost if Johnson (or Justin Coleman) isn’t up to the challenge.
Finally we look at the “Bend Don’t Break” chart:
Lots of interesting stuff happening here, starting with the Yards-per-Drive taking a major step forward, while Turnovers-per-Drive dropped to their worst rate in a decade.
The Patriots have had fewer interceptions the last five years in a row since 2010: 25-23-20-17-16-12. Yet the defense has gotten better in each of those years generally. What gives? Why would getting less turnovers and specifically interceptions be the sign of a better defense?
I relate it to the shift away from zone defense to more man coverage. The Pats D of the early ‘10s didn’t have much talent, so instead they played conservative zone defense, waiting to break on poorly thrown balls or deliver big downhill hits that forced fumbles.
Now, the secondary is in man coverage, so instead of sitting back and waiting to pounce, they’re running around tracking their receivers. It’s a lot easier to drop into zone then break on the pass than it is to be running stride-for-stride with a receiver, turn around, find the ball and pick it off.
All of this points to positive trends with the Patriots defense and I give the front seven a lot of credit. They’re as deep and talented now as they were during the first three Super Bowls, and good news, everyone of importance comes back next year.