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Will Patriots attack the Cardinals like they attack the Steelers?

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There’s been a lot of talk this week of how much like the Steelers the Cardinals are in their scheme and style, and thus it’s been helpful to take a look back at the Pats games against Pittsburgh recently to get a sense of what the game plan might be.

The tough thing is that the Pats are one of the few teams not afraid to try and run on the Steelers. In 2010 the Pats averaged 4.3 yards per carry and went over 100 yards. But will they be willing to do the same thing against Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell, the unquestionable strongholds of the Cardinals D? Tough to say, especially since they lack a true power back like they had with Benjarvus Green-Ellis who pounded the Steelers in 2010.

Offensively the one element that has almost always been present against the Steelers is the use of misdirection and trick plays, most memorably the Brady-Moss-Brady-Gaffney TD bomb from 2007. This can be a good way to get an over-aggressive defense to hurt themselves, and it’s a safe bet the Pats will have some surprises ready for the Cardinals.

But the biggest element offensively to me seems that we should expect a lot of spread and hurry up. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to line up across from the Pats and have a drag-out fight, and what the Pats usually do against teams like that is never give them a chance to get settled.

Force Campbell and Dockett to be on their heels, spread their defense out and pick the best match-up. So for this reason I think it’s safe to say we’ll see a lot more of Wes Welker this week.

Defensively I think we’ll continue to see what we’ve seen all year from the Pats. Their Double Nose 4-3 was dominant against the Titans in every facet so there’s no reason to try and protect that from the Cardinals running or passing games.

The most interesting match-up of the day will of course be Larry Fitzgerald against the Pats secondary. We can’t forget New England was the worst team in the NFL last year against #1 wide receivers, so this is a real chance to show some improvement over 2011.

The question will be if they try to match up one DB the whole time on him, or maintain sides like they usually do and just try to execute regardless of who is on him.

There’s no question that Pittsburgh is a more talented team than Arizona, especially on offense, but the principals that have made the Patriots so successful against Pittsburgh (6 wins, 3 losses since the 2001 AFCCG) should remain in place. There’s a reason the Patriots have lit up the vaunted Steelers defense more than anyone else, they know how to play against them. It’s just a matter of execution, just like it will be Sunday.

Notes on a solid start to the Patriots season

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I don’t want to overreact so I’ve been putting off writing too much about yesterday’s Patriots-Titans game until now. If I get too excited at all below just please take it with a grain of salt. This is a young team and there will be growing pains but… WOW.

– Let’s start on the defensive side where the Pats seem very focused on keeping it simple. The biggest question we had was could this new nickel-front 4-3 base stop the run. Well Chris Johnson had 4 yards rushing. The longest run the Pats gave up was a 9-yard scramble to Jake Locker. I don’t know exactly what to make of it, but that’s a dominating performance and one that will certainly skew some pretty looking stats favorably for us as the season goes on. We knew the Pats would be physical, but no one was expecting that kind of run defense.

– You can say this run defense will be an anomaly, but the foursome of Wilfork-Love and Spikes-Hightower were absolutely dominant. For the first time in a long time this defense looks like they have the ability to be game changers, not just game managers.

– In the simplest terms the Patriots defense just looks like all the high draft picks they’ve made over the past four seasons are finally coming together. They’re just more talented. It’s no longer a defense of specialization, where there would be whole sale personnel changes between first and third down. Now the Pats are pretty much ready to handle anything with their base 11 guys.

– Pats starting defense: five homegrown first round picks, two homegrown second round picks, three undrafted free agents (one homegrown), and Ninkovich who was taken in the fifth round.

– Chandler Jones was the biggest missing piece. I am blown away by how good he’s looked, and the fact that he rarely came off the field shows the Pats have been blown away too. This looks like a defense ready to ascend and dominate for a long time, with Jones as one of the centerpieces.

– Spikes and Hightower split time as nickel linebackers, will need to take a closer look to see who was better. But I was really impressed with how well Hightower moves.

– On offense it’s a very similar approach to the defense. They’re keeping it extremely simple with their personnel, and letting the personnel’s versatility dictate what they do.

– Brandon Lloyd already looks like everything they need on the outside. They won’t miss a long pass like that one again.

– I was never overly worried about the offensive line. I still think they’ll have moments, and perhaps even games, of inconsistency. But overall they looked very good against the Titans, and it’s a promising sign considering how much changeover they had. Not many teams don’t miss a beat after experiencing all the juggling on the line that they Patriots did this off-season.

– I’m sure they’ll try to preserve Ridley a little bit, but wow was he impressive. The strange thing is how many negative runs he seemed to have. Law Firm never really had those, but he also never had the explosive second-level moves that Ridley featured that picked him up a lot of extra yardage. Overall it looks like the backfield will be in good hands. I expect Brandon Bolden to slowly get more and more of a chance to show what he can do. Who knows how Vereen will fit in when he comes back.

– Need to take a closer look at Welker’s snaps but I wouldn’t really read too much into him playing a reduced role. That’s a benefit I think, not a sign of decline.

– Haven’t given enough props to Julian Edelman this season yet. Seems like he really did make Branch, Gaffney and Stallworth expendable, and he’s getting his chances on offense now.

Overall it’s hard not to think that top to bottom this is the most talented team the Patriots have had. That might sound ridiculous considering how good the Pats have been over the years, but they’ve never been this loaded with young talent.

In year’s past there was always something to overcome, whether it was a lack of weapons (dynasty years through 2006), or an aging and/or rebuilding defense (2007-2011). This year’s team looks like they should be more balanced than ever on offense, and are flashing the kind of talent of defense the likes of which we haven’t seen since the early part of last decade.

Why are the Patriots stockpiling tight ends?

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No one can seem to get over how many tight ends the Pats have on the roster this year, but if we take a closer look at the players and what they can do it starts to make a little more sense.

Really, “tight end” is a generalized positional name now. They can be a traditional tight end, a wide receiver, a fullback, an extra tackle or as we’ve seen in Hernando’s case, a running back.

Even in specific offensive schematic terms you’re really talking about two different positions: the Y (Gronk) and the F (Hernando). We can all agree that while both of those guys are “tight ends” their skill sets are a lot different. I don’t think you’ll ever see Gronk taking a hand off in the backfield, nor will you want to see Hernandez blocking in a short yardage situation.

You also have to take into account that the Patriots are light at tackle with only three, so it makes even more sense to carry a Y that might be a better blocker than receiver (Hoomanawanui). Meanwhile Fells can do a little of both positions, though he might just be filling in until Shiancoe gets back.

It’s really not that crazy to envision a short yardage/goal-line package that features Gronk and Uh Oh in line, Hernandez split out wide and Fells playing fullback.

But aside from that the collection of tight ends on the roster signals some interesting things to me. First, that they’re fully committed to their tight end offense and want to be prepared should injuries strike. Second, with the lack of an experience power running back they wanted to take steps to aid their young guys and short yardage package. And finally third, they won’t have to rely on Gronk as heavily for his blocking. This can help preserve him in the long run.

Don’t get me wrong, Gronk is a great blocker, and his diversity is one of his biggest assets, but having Hoomanawanui and Fells can help ease some of their reliance on Gronk in every situation.

The interesting question to me is why the shift to more power? We all know the Pats struggled to attack the perimeter of the field last year, and with all the wide receivers they brought into camp it seems like they were determined to fix that. Brandon Lloyd should be part of the solution there, but it’s still clear they want to dominate the middle of the field, perhaps even moreso this year.

It will certainly be interesting to see how the offense will change this year, and how they’ll employ all these large, versatile players. This is the most physical group of weapons Bill Belichick has ever assembled. Will they be able to take advantage of smaller defensive back-heavy defenses looking to stop Tom Brady and the spread attack? We’ll start to find out on Sunday.

A Patriots fans drinking game for dealing with the Giants stuff tonight

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One of the worst parts of losing a Super Bowl is the opening game of the following season when we have to relive all the misery that we just spent the last six months burying deep inside.

So the Giants will probably have fancy Super Bowl champs patches tonight, and we’ll get a bevy of not only Super Bowl 46 lowlights but also some Super Bowl 42 ones sprinkled in too. Yeah football’s back but first us Patriots fans have to relive a bunch of misery. Great.

So if you’re like me it will help to be drinking heavily throughout. Here are the official rules for the “Patriots fans guide to drinking heavily during the Giants victory lap” game.

Manningham Sideline Catch: just one tiny sip, they’re gonna show this one at least 50 times and we don’t want to lose anyone.

Tyree Helmet Catch: finish your beer. They’ll show it a couple times and we might as well get the party rolling.

Bradshaw falls into the end zone: fall over yourself and take a sip of your drink.

Cruz salsas, highlights or real time: Scream “learn a new dance” and take a sip.

“Eli” and “Elite” mentioned in the same sentence: Take 3 sips for the 3 Super Bowls Brady still has to Eli’s 2.

Michael Strahan makes an appearance: yell “where’s Kelly Ripa, gap tooth!?” and drink.

Shot of any Giant getting Super Bowl confetti’ed: pour your drink out on the closest Giants fans face.

Any shot of Brady getting decked in either Super Bowl: punch yourself once in the face then drink.

I don’t know about you guys, but I sure feel like a Cowboys fan tonight. Feel free to add some of your own in the comments below.

Titans will go to the air against Patriots

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With a second-year quarterback making his first start and a missing top receiving target it might be easy to see only Chris  Johnson when scouting the Titans offense. Especially after Bill Belichick lays the praise on him like he did today:

“His production speaks for itself. He’s really an outstanding player with the ball in his hands. In the passing game, in the running game, inside runs, outside runs, draws, screens. Everybody is at the point of attack because he has the speed to start one way and go the other, to get back to the cut back, backside of the defense or bounce out in either direction. Really everybody is at the point of the attack when he has the ball.

The Patriots might be tempted to write off the Titans aerial attack and focus on Johnson, but our research over at FootballOutsiders.com tells us they should be prepared to have the ball thrown on them early and often.

Over the past three seasons the Titans have gone from 27th (2009) to 6th (2011) in offensive formations featuring three-plus wide receivers. Even with Kenny Britt out for this weekend, it would be foolish to ignore this statistic, especially considering the amount of yardage the Patriots gave up through the air in 2011.

The first game of the season always presents a great deal of unknowns. Teams have shown little in the preseason of their actual schematic plans for the regular season. The Patriots defense showed a fairly straight-forward defense that featured more of a nickel front with two large space eaters inside at the tackle positions. That will change. Expect Vince Wilfork to align somewhere over the middle of the Titans offensive line, a spot where Tennessee struggled last year and re-built in the off-season by bringing in a still solid Steve Hutchinson.

Johnson will get plenty of touches, but expect the Titans to move him around as they really started to do in 2011 when they had him split out wide 41 times compared to just 3 times in 2010.

Jake Locker lacks experience, but there have been plenty of green quarterbacks who have moved the ball against New England in recent seasons. Look for the Titans to use a lot of three-receiver sets featuring Nate Washington, Damian Williams and Kendall Wright, and try to exploit the Pats traditional bend-don’t-break style with a lot of quick passes.

A big part of their game plan should be to get the ball to Chris Johnson in space rather than sending him up the middle into the teeth of the Pats defense where Wilfork and Brandon Spikes will be waiting. A huge key to the game will be the pass coverage on Johnson, most likely by Jerod Mayo, who now seems like the only linebacker on the Pats roster with the speed to have a chance covering backs.

The way to beat the Patriots has never been ground and pound (hello Jets?), and with a full off-season to prepare it’s doubtful that the Titans will suddenly return to their Jeff Fisher-esque ways of running the ball nearly 50% of the time. The trajectory for what the Munchak Titans want to do is clear, and the Pats pass rushers and secondary better be prepared.

PatsPropaganda’s non-biased NFL Uniform Power Rankings

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I am biased for the Pats on the field and in my blogging but I can be somewhat fair and balanced on the issue of uniforms and “look”. Really. Here’s how I see the NFL 1-32:

  1. Steelers – I respect their dedication to continuity both in football philosophy and look. I even like the yellow helmet/number alternates.
  2. Packers – It’s hard to make green and yellow look good. Traditional. Iconic. Perfect.
  3. Raiders – It’s kind of easy making badass uniforms when you’re working with silver and black but I like that they’ve kept it simple and effective. The badass logo is still ahead of our time. Just ask teams like the Jags and Titans.
  4. Cowboys – The star is simple, effective and the logo of what was once America’s Team. Pretty much perfect if not just a tad bland. And I love how we made them wear their blue uniforms last year, which in my book actually look better anyway.
  5. Jets – Here’s a secret, I really like the Jets uniforms. Well I love to hate them, but they’re unique and throwback-y. Helmet logo could use a little work, but the unis are green and white done right.
  6. Patriots – Just because I put them sixth makes this a non-biased list, right? But I really do think the Pats have the best modernized uniforms in the NFL. Red, blue and silver can’t be beat. With just a hint of tradition. Also one of the only teams to pick a good number/letter font when they went modernized.
  7. Bears – Old school yes, but I still hate having to remind myself they’re navy not black.
  8. 49ers – It was a great move going back to the old numbers and getting rid of the “try-to-be-3D’ Terrell Owens era ones.
  9. Bills – Great move last year going to these throwback look ones they have now, but I agree with ESPN in that the new Nike fly collar hurts them overall. Glad Pats said no to those. Would’ve avoided the white helmets if it was my call but bravo for the change that got them out of the low 20’s.
  10. Redskins – I always enjoy when they experiment with their uniforms and no matter what they do it always seems to work. Are they a little racist? Sure. But we all mind a lot less because they’re aesthetically pleasing.
  11. Chiefs – They’re only here at 11 because they’ve stuck with the classic look and I don’t mess with tradition, but red and yellow alone should have them in the 20s.
  12. Browns – A friend of mine used to call out girls who were like the Cleveland Browns… great uniform, bad helmet. And it sure ain’t easy to make brown and orange look good.
  13. Buccaneers – Probably the second best modern uniform update but it still looks a little too busy to me. Light years better than those Archie Manning disasters.
  14. Colts – Boring but traditional so respectable, kind of like Peyton Manning.
  15. Ravens – The have an over-reliance on black to look cool, and I wish I could change their number font but they definitely look intimidating. Maybe that’s just Ray Lewis in them.
  16. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers unis just work for me. The light blue and black without an over-reliance on black, works well. That doesn’t mean I like Cam Newton wearing number one.
  17. Chargers – They were in the top 5 for me until 2007 when they went to these horrible modernized ones. White helmets? No. That number font? No. When they move to LA let’s get them back in the powder blue throwback ones full time.
  18. Dolphins – I have never been intimidated by anyone in teal in my life. Nor anyone who calls himself a Dolphin. But they’ve stuck with it even though they’re 70s through and through, so that earns them something.
  19. Giants – Boring, and the lower case "ny” just seems wrong. Hard to be that bad when your blue and white with red trim and old-school though. Now if we can just talk to Justin Tuck about his facemask.
  20. Texans – Similar to the Giants in their scheme, just don’t love their logo, but I like how they look “fake-traditional” almost. Actually think the fly collar helps them in this case.
  21. Saints – Again an over-reliance on black to look cool but the helmet has been and always will be a classic icon. Solid and simple, but not iconic.
  22. Broncos  – One of the first bold updates, I think if any one could be qualified as a “riser” it’d be the Broncos, they’re slowly growing on me over the past 15 years. These things take time.
  23. Eagles – Just get a new number font and you’ll jump about 10 spots.
  24. Falcons – I’m always partial to red and black, and I like they they’ve kept their helmet logo largely the same but there’s something missing for me with the unis. Too corporate and over-modernized.
  25. Cardinals – Red and white can keep you off the bottom five but like the Falcons there’s just something too polished about their look.
  26. Titans – Do better Titans. They miss the mark in almost every category, especially with the computerized number font.
  27. Vikings – Opportunity missed here. Their throwbacks are perfect, if they just went with those all the time they’d be in the top 15. But their modernized ones just don’t work. Nice fit, but too sleek.
  28. Bengals – The Bengals have always been a new helmet away from the top-15 but they just refuse to do it. Orange and black has such potential yet they just continue to ruin it with no logo and tiger stripes.
  29. Rams – Possibly the most boring and forgettable uniform in the league. It’s not too modern, it’s not traditional. It’s just “here’s our uniforms, we don’t put a lot of thought or effort into them, so don’t love or hate them”.
  30. Jaguars – This shade of teal doesn’t scare me either, even when it’s with black. Bad logo too. The only team with black in their scheme to totally fail.
  31. Seahawks – I don’t know whose idea it was to ruin a good thing but now it looks like there’s an arena league team in the NFL. Last year they would’ve easily been top-15, now they’re almost bottom of the barrel if it wasn’t for…
  32. Lions – Honolulu blue burns my retinas, and it ruins a good helmet and a color scheme that should be easy to work with. Send Honolulu blue back to Hawaii. It’s just so overwhelmingly horrible to look it gets them right to the bottom. This is football, not a black light party.

Couple thoughts on the Fanene and Andre Carter

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Couple tidbits broke this morning, let’s start with Jonathan Fanene:

If you’re familiar with this blog you know that I’ve been banging the “Fanene’s gonna be a huge help with the interior rush” drum so this is definitely unfortunate news. Well, perhaps the unfortunate part is just that Fanene couldn’t get healthy.

The good news is that Ron Brace, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick and Jermaine Cunningham all look like they could provide a much-needed boost to the inside rush this year. However there’s no question that there’s still a need for Myron Pryor to get back on the field. At this point it’s starting to look more and more likely he’ll remain on the PUP list and sit out the first six weeks of the season. Almost hard to believe he hasn’t been able to play in nearly a year, guys come back faster than that from ACL tears.

Ever since fans saw Chandler Jones play well against the Saints the calls to bring Andre Carter back have gone nearly silent, and now he’s meeting with the Raiders. For most of the off-season it just seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Pats would wait for Carter to get healthy then sign him. Despite some reports that the Pats and Carter couldn’t agree on a deal it still seemed like things would come together.

But once Jones flashed it seems like Carter became the forgotten man. Add in Trevor Scott and Jermaine Cunningham also showing up in practices and games and it made it seem even less likely that the Pats need Carter. There’s no question he was one of the MVPs of the defense last year and everyone loved what he brought to the team on and off the field. But it looks like the youth movement is in full swing and Chandler Jones needs to be on the field as much as possible.

Still, Carter was a lot of fun to root for even if it was just for that one season…