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Victory Monday! 20 thoughts as Pats squeak out another one vs. Broncos

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Once again the new balanced attack from the Patriots paid dividends this week against the Broncos, just as it had against the Bills. There’s no question, the Patriots offensive machine is looking as balanced and dangerous as it’s ever been. 

And this is without what many are calling our best weapon on offense? And I mean Aaron Hernandez of course, not Julian Edelman. The addition of an explosive element in their backfield, along with the outside-the-numbers threat in Lloyd, has taken this offense to new heights.

But ultimately just having a hard-to-defend offense isn’t enough to get to the Super Bowl alone. What matters more is that it’s a clutch offense, that is consistent and makes it’s biggest plays in the biggest moments of the game.

How clutch is this ‘12 Pats crew? We still got a way to go.

As for the defense it’s looking more and more like the 2010 version but with a better pass rush. They’re getting turnovers in bunches while the defensive line has been consistently stout in the run game, and porous in the pass game. The pressure has been decent, but notably absent for long stretches in Baltimore.

Nothing about this Broncos game makes you really think anything entirely new about this year’s Pats. They are what they are so far. But if opponents don’t turn the ball over, and get a little pressure on Brady, it starts to get a little dicey.

That said, it’s certainly a roller coaster style of football to watch, which can be fun, but often unnerving, especially at the end ,when the games not in hand and the opponent only needs 80 yards for a touchdown, which usually takes about four plays until they’re in our red zone, anyway…

20 quick hit thoughts about the game:

  1. Dennard showed me enough that I’m curious about his potential at outside corner. He has a unique, almost squatty, body type, but plays with good tenacity and has some quick.
  2. Dennard deserves credit for the pass break up on Thomas. Chung wasn’t in position to make a play.
  3. Ras-I looked lost playing the Money spot, previously occupied by Tavon Wilson.
  4. I continue to be impressed with Wilson. He’s a good tackler, plays aggressive but under control. As Frenz pointed out, he could be the Pats best defensive back.
  5. Curious to take a closer look at McCourty’s performance. The PI calls were obvious. I think this was probably a down game for him all around. 
  6. Props to Ninkovich, the guy is playing out of his mind. If he can maintain this kind of play, stopping the run and getting after the quarterback, the Pats defense will really be able to feed off of that.
  7. Seems like Trevor Scott is starting to see a little more time. In for Chandler Jones first this week. I can see why with the way Ninkovich is playing.
  8. It’s kind of been fun seeing Jermaine Cunningham doing better as an interior rusher. He’s not always perfect, but I think he’s brought some good pressure at times. 
  9. Myron Pryor could add another interesting interior rush dynamic if he’s healthy enough to come off PUP. 
  10. Let’s just get Gregory back and try to continue to work him and Chung back there. I think those two are still our best chance.
  11. What can you say about Tom Brady that hasn’t already been said? Another lights out performance from him. Nothing forced. Consistent. It’s a joy to watch and I love every minute of it.
  12. Ridley’s got some power, got some shimmy, he’s elusive but powerful. It’s nice to finally have a young running back we can get really get excited about. Feels like it’s been all vets, undrafteds and busts since Curtis Martin.
  13. Brandon Lloyd doesn’t have to do a lot to be effective. But the tough catches he’s making have to inspiring more confidence in Brady.
  14. Love having Deion Branch for third downs. He just knows how to get open and is a great thing to have instead of throwing someone like Matthew Slater out there.
  15. Vollmer’s been pretty lights out this year, but I have a  feeling this ones going to grade out as his lowest of the year.
  16. Hope everyone out there is enjoying Welker!
  17. I think I’ll be seeing Hernando suit up in person next weekend in Seattle.
  18. Shane Vereen is such a tease. We all heard what great wheels and hands he has, is he ever going to flash them in a game? It seems clear the coaching staff is trying to give him the chance to show what he can do. The opportunities are there, but they won’t be forever. Especially with Bolden and Ridley running so well.
  19. Storyline to start following now: Is Ryan Wendell the long term answer at center?
  20. Good win. Always feels good to beat Peyton. I want to be able to say we never lost to him again after the 4th and 2 game. So far that’s still intact and who knows how many more times our paths will cross.

Excited to plow through this week and get up to Seattle. The week of the yearly pilgrimage is here.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Broncos

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It’s time to begin a new chapter in the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning annals, and personally I’m glad that the scheduling gods lined things up just so it would happen. There are only so many times these two legendary quarterbacks will face each other again so we should take a moment to enjoy what we’re seeing.

Of course having Peyton on the Broncos certainly gives it a new flavor and the fact that the Patriots torched Denver in the playoffs has to give New England an underlying confidence.

Still, the Pats have not seen many quarterbacks with the skill of Manning in recent seasons so he should provide an excellent test for a secondary that remains the only major question mark for this 2012 edition of the Pats.

Even if a lot of Manning’s balls wobble, they still get to where they need to be.

Here are my Five Keys for the Pats to heehaw the Donkeys.

1. Secondary in Sync: The defensive line and linebackers are really starting to come into their own but Peyton knows how to get rid of the ball so you can’t count on the pass rush to be what slows him down. So it comes down to is Pats secondary all being on the same page, disguising their coverages, and most of all not making mental errors. The pass defense is giving up more deep passes per game than they have in a decade plus, so it’s hard not to look at the safety play first and foremost. Devin McCourty, despite a few bad plays, has really bounced back. Now the rest of them need to pick it up. Kyle Arrington finally has been able to move inside to star in nickel packages, a spot he seemingly is perfect for. He’s been in the system for a while now, yet his inconsistent play is continues. Sterling Moore surpassed Ras-I Dowling as the outside corner in nickel and dime. Ras-I remains an enigma more baffling (due to his 32nd overall draft slot) than Shawn “Crazy Legs” Crable. The Patriots pass defense could prove a lot this week, or they could show they’re the same old squad that gives up passing yards by the bushel.

2. Take our “Ridlen” (h/t @DanteSterling): Last week’s emergence of the run game was extremely positive, though I wouldn’t call the Pats a ground and pound team just yet. They won’t be afraid to run when opponents play them with DB-laden defenses, but whether or not they can exert their will, like they did against the Bills, against a top notch front like Houston or Baltimore remains to be seen. With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil they’d love nothing more than to be able to pin back their ears and get after Tom Brady in the pocket, so you’ve got to get them on their heels a bit. The Pats had 280 yards rushing in their two games against the Broncos last year, so “Ridlen” and Woodhead could really do some damage this year, and if they do look out.

3. Brady goes deep to Lloyd: While the run game should be effective the Broncos can be susceptible to the pass as well, and the deep ball especially. As Greg Bedard has been saying all week, the shots down the field should be there, just like they were there for the Texans, now it’s just a matter of Brady and Lloyd finally connecting. This is the last missing ingredient on offense, a couple caught long balls would add another dynamic for opposing defenses to worry about. We haven’t seen a 50+ yard touchdown this year. It’s time for that to change. And you can’t tell me Lloyd and McDaniels would enjoy anything more.

4. Finish him!: As we’ve seen in the last five Pats games against him you have to finish Peyton Manning, and finishing is something the Pats have struggled with in recent years. So regardless of a lead or deficit, it’s going to take four quarters, and ultimately pounding the final nail in the coffin when the opportunity is there. Whether that’s picking up a gotta-have-it first down, or getting a critical third down stop, players will have to step up and end the game on the Patriots terms. If they do not they could face yet another horrible last minute defeat that we’re all too familiar with, especially against the Manning brothers.

5. Win: As always this is all that matters, especially in a conference game against an opponent you could see again down the road. There is little doubt the Patriots should be able to move the ball, the question is whether their defense can make enough stops to put some distance in between them and Manning. Personally I relish the chance to have one of our greatest weaknesses tested by an excellent quarterback. He might still not be full capacity, but he’s a lot better than most of the schmoes we’ve seen around here lately.

If the Pats want to get back to the Super Bowl they’re going to have to knock off some combination of Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, or even Peyton again, and getting lucky again with a sub-par pass defense is unlikely to happen for a second year in a row. The time for the secondary to start improving is now, and getting a win against an elite passer would be a big first step and a confidence-boosting sticker on the helmet.

Patriots pass defense continues scary trend against the deep ball

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One of the major problems for last year’s Patriots defense that seems to be rearing its ugly head again this year is the number of plays over 20-yards given up.

With the help of the Pro-Football-Reference.com play finder I took a look back over the last decade, since the first Super Bowl win, to see what the numbers have looked like since the rise and fall of the dynasty defense.

Granted the game is a bit different now, and passing offenses are far more dangerous now than they were when the Pats were winning Super Bowls, but I still found the numbers to be somewhat shocking.

Here are the numbers on plays over 20-yards given up since 2001, broken down per game to give a bit more context. Playoffs are included.

  • 2001: 70 = 3.7/game
  • 2002: 47 = 2.9/game
  • 2003: 53 = 2.8/game
  • 2004: 62 = 3.7/game
  • 2005: 64 = 3.6/game
  • 2006: 69 = 3.6/game
  • 2007: 51 = 2.7/game
  • 2008: 50 = 3.1/game
  • 2009: 55 = 3.2/game
  • 2010: 65 = 3.8/game
  • 2011: 93 = 4.9/game
  • 2012: 22 = 5.5/game

As you can see the numbers were the worst they’ve been in a decade in 2010 and have only gotten worse in the last two seasons.

One thing that is clear is that it’s the pass defense that is the problem. Even in 2011 they gave up just 6 runs of over 20-yards, leaving a staggering 87 passes over 20-yards. Since 2001 they’ve never given up more than 14 runs of over 20-yards and that happened in 2002. So the run defense has been basically unchanged. The issue is defending the deep ball.

Given that the Pats put up their highest sack totals (a somewhat flawed stat to be sure) in 2011 since 2007 you have to think at least a bit more of the focus for this problem has to go on the coverage. Of course the easiest place to start when you’re giving up a lot of long passes is the play of the safeties.

Now you can never read too much into one stat, but these numbers show a clear trend that illustrates a major part of the problems for the Patriots pass defense over the last few seasons. It’s an area to keep track of as 2012 progresses, and hopefully a trend they can reverse.

Patriots quarter pole re-group

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After a quarter of the way through the regular season it’s a good time to take some inventory of what we’ve seen out of the Pats through the first four games. It’s important not to overreact too much about anything, rather we just want to make sure everything is on the right track to start playing our best football as we hit Thanksgiving.

Here’s what has stood out to me so far…

OFFENSE

It’s especially hard to get too over-analytical with the offense because really they’ve been without arguable their best weapon for more than half of the four games. While the Pats should no doubt improve once Aaron Hernandez returns, they’ve adjusted fairly well without him, especially when you look at how they were clicking in the second half against Buffalo.

I hope that Josh McDaniels is starting to find out what works for them now, and can avoid the unnecessary trickeration that he seems so fond of. As he discovers what works best he’ll be able to game plan more around that, rather than his preconceived notions of what the offense should be able to do.

There are three major areas we can touch on when it comes to the offense:

1. Brandon Lloyd – though it’s not quite Brady-Moss 2007, Lloyd and Brady have been clicking as expected. At the very least it’s clear that Brady is developing his sense of trust with Lloyd but it seems to be growing with each game. Lloyd has been able to put a true threat on the perimeter, giving defenses something to consider that they didn’t have to worry about last year.

2. The emergence of “Boldley” – okay, maybe that’s a bad nickname for Bolden and Ridley but after the performance in Buffalo it’s hard not to be excited about what these two young backs can bring. In recent history the Pats have run when they’ve needed to, but it was never a featured weapon of their offense. It was more just to open things up for Brady and the passing game, or pick up the short yardage needed for first downs. But now they have at least the threat of a legitimate ground attack that must be taken into account. Between Lloyd and the running game this is definitely not your 2010/2011 Pats offense.

3. Bravo, Dante Scarnecchia – How many teams can plug an almost entirely new offensive line in and not skip a beat? Especially for a high octane offense like the Patriots? It’s pretty much unheard of but that’s exactly what has happened. Every summer people worry about the o-line and every time, regardless of who they put in, it all works out okay. This season has been a testament to the talent of Dante Scarnecchia, especially on the inside of the line. If Sebastian Vollmer continues his current pace he could have a Pro Bowl season. I am also very interested to see if Ryan Wendell can cement himself as the long term answer at center. So far he’s been pretty solid all things considered. Connolly and Mankins just need to get fully healthy and that should continue to elevate the line. Nate Solder has been quietly solid as well, no small task for a left tackle in this league.

The offense will evolve again once Hernandez returns, but this period without him should certainly be valuable as it’s given a chance to really explore the other areas of the attack. So yet again the Pats have an elite offense, but the main concern will just come down to executing in the prime pressure moments in January and February.

DEFENSE

The biggest word that comes to mind with the defense so far is inconsistency, and nothing sums that up more than Brandon Spikes’ performances over the first four games. At times the defense looks elite, forcing punts and turnovers, getting pressure, but too often they still resort back to the swiss cheese pass defense that has haunted them for the better part of two seasons.

After seeing what Joe Flacco did to them, it’s hard to not still wonder if they can clamp down on elite passers when it’s all on the line. Still, the pieces seem to be place now. The Pats have 14 core defenders and that’s pretty much who they roll with.

The important thing is that they’ve been able to stop the run with their new lighter 4-3 that features Ninkovich at left defensive end. That is the key to running this defense and enables them to keep more athletes on the field who are better suited to attack the pass on any given down.

They’re 22nd on third down (41%) which isn’t as bad as we’ve seen it, but it’s still not where you want to be. And after being 31st in pass yards in 2011, they’ve ascended to 20th. Though it hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet of elite QBs. Things have looked improved over last year, but they still have a lot to prove.

Many said the biggest thing the Pats D lacked recently is talent, but it looks like their plethora of high round draft picks are finally catching up with them. Now it’s a defense loaded with hand selected high round guys who rarely leave the field. This bodes extremely well for the future, short term and long term. They just need to keep this group playing together which they’ve been doing.

The biggest question area through four games remains at safety. The Pats are giving up too many long chunks of yardage. The average opponent touchdown drive this year (except for the 2 yard one by the Cardinals after the blocked punt) is 7 plays for 68 yards.  That’s nearly 10 yards per play, and shows that teams are eating up the coverage down the field.

Patrick Chung is healthy and has flashed, but he still has trouble covering big tight ends. He still hasn’t proven that he can be the kind of impact strong safety Rodney Harrison was. As always I love his playing style, he just needs to start making more positive plays.

Steve Gregory was average at best until his team-worst outing against the Bills. Tavon Wilson could be headed to the starting lineup sooner than later.

Jermaine Cunningham has been slightly better than average as an interior rusher, though it will be interesting once Myron Pryor comes back. If he can emerge on the inside it could have a real positive impact on the defense.

Chandler Jones has already exceeded expectations and already looks to be a favorite of Bill Belichick. He rarely comes off the field now. Dont’a Hightower has flashed some big potential as well. The linebacker trio of him, Spikes and Mayo could develop into one of the best in the NFL in a short time.

For everyone else it’s just a matter of consistency. This is the most talent the Patriots have had on defense in a long time, but they’re still young so it’s not unexpected that they don’t always play up to their potential. That should come as they get more experience together, still the back end and interior rush remain areas to monitor where personnel changes might be necessary.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Like the defense this group has been inconsistent as well, starting with the obvious struggles of Stephen Gostkowski. Personally I’m not too worried about Gostkowski and expect him to bounce back to his usual solid self. But I will be a little more nervous than expected if the season comes down to him making a tough kick. He still needs a defining moment like that. His career has surprisingly lacked one to this point despite all the big games he’s played in.

Matthew Slater and Marquis Cole have been standouts on special teams, with especially impressive performances against the Bills. Special teamers don’t often get a lot of notice but those two guys are making an impact.

The biggest problem I have is the kick return. They did nothing to address this area in the off-season and now it looks like we’re rolling with Devin McCourty back there. He’s been slightly below average, which is about what we’ve come to expect since Brandon Tate left. It’s seriously a pleasant surprise to start beyond the 20 these days. I’d say it’s highly unlikely we’ll see a Patriot return a kick for a TD anytime soon.

CONCLUSION

The Pats are 2-2 but are a missed kick from 3-1 and another play or two from 4-0. I actually like that they’ve faced a little early season adversity for the first time in quite a few seasons and overcome it.

They’ve played two tough road games in hostile environments and been able to play well, at least for stretches, in both. They haven’t put together a full sixty minutes yet but what team has.

All in all the Pats look as primed as ever to make a run at the Lombardi, but as always it will just come down to making the critical plays at the critical times. Something they’ve failed to do since February 2005.

Few more thoughts upon the Patriots-Bills re-watch

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It’s always amazing to me how much more you can pick up after watching the game already knowing the outcome. I guess it’s obvious that your brain works better when you’re not all stressed out.

Few more things I wanted to share based on last night’s re-watch:

– When you really boil it down the Pats offense should’ve scored even more than they did. Take away the two missed field goals and two fumbles and this one could’ve been ugly.

– The defense didn’t handle the quick change after Gronk’s fumble well enough. They should’ve seen a quick shot down the field coming. Chung had decent position but was just short enough that he couldn’t make the play.

– The Pats struggled against the Bills screen game more than I thought they would.

– Both of Spikes’ forced fumbles were him scraping down the line of scrimmage, lower his shoulder and exploding into the ball carrier. This is a switch from how we usually see him coming down hill at attacking. Future opposing ball carriers will have to be aware of where Spikes is at all times.

– The Fred Jackson catch over Jerod Mayo reminded me of the Manningham one in the Super Bowl. Just an absolute perfect throw and catch. Hard to be too miffed at Mayo for that one.

– Wow, did Mario Williams look lost out there. I didn’t even notice him once on Sunday and after focusing on him a bit more closely I can see why.

– Brady and Lloyd weren’t connecting early but it’s a great sign of the trust Brady is developing with him that he kept going back to him. As we saw with Joey Galloway and Ochocinco, Brady will give some guys a chance early but if they don’t make the play they might not see another one.

– Still hard to take too much away from this one as far as our defense goes. Forcing multiple turnovers is a great sign, but the ones at the end were more Fitzpatrick just chucking it up there. The secondary is going to need their best game of the season against Peyton.

Quick hit reaction to the Patriots 52-28 win over the Bills

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Things sure looked bleak when the Pats were punting on their first possession to open the second half and then the defense proceeded to watch a 5-play 83-yard touchdown that put the Bills up by two touchdowns. But after that it was all Pats as they scored touchdown after touchdown from there and never looked back.

Here are some quick observations and thoughts…

– There’s no question Vince Wilfork is the MVP of this defense, and enough can not be said for his inspiring play. His fumble recovery to prevent a 21-7 halftime lead for the Bills was a season-changing play.

– Brandon Spikes forced two fumbles and had a pass defensed, and though he had some issues in the passing game, made a big impact. If Mayo is the brains on defense, Spikes is starting to show he’s the heart.

– Hats off to the offensive line. What a job well done. We’ve kind of come to expect it but they were opening holes in the running game that haven’t been there all season.  I doubt the Pats will be able to gash everyone like that, but at least the threat of it will give teams something new to prepare for.

– I thought they were pulling a sneak attack with Vereen when he was in there immediately and had a pass come his way. Looks like they just wanted to give them something to think about because I didn’t see Vereen the rest of the day.

– And the Pats strike gold with another undrafted running back. Brandon Bolden has had his fans since training camp, Greg Bedard being one, and he showed why today. It’s exciting to think what he and Ridley can do together. They both run hard, but they’re just different enough to compliment each other. But wow we’re both of them getting down hill in a hurry.

– Brandon Lloyd and Brady were off early yesterday but it’s clear that he has brought a major element that was missing last year, giving Brady a consistent outside the numbers threat.

– The times when Fitzpatrick ate our defense up were times when the pressure was lacking. Starting to wish Kyle Love was making a little more noise in the pass rush department.

– Tavon Wilson is having an extremely solid start to the season. He is probably getting overshadowed by Jones and Hightower but he’s been making plays on the ball, and the on the catches he does give up he’s a sure tackler with minimal YAC. It won’t be long before we see him get a chance to start. Especially with Gregory potentially dinged/not playing so well anyway.

– It seems like the center of the field was a big target area, but McCourty and Arrington held down the outside fairly well. Will have to take a closer look at that on the re-watch, especially Chung/Gregory.

– The inconsistency of the defense is a major area I’ll be focusing on this week. It’s maddening because they’re seemingly flashing more and more that they can be a very, very good defense, yet the last two games they’ve gone full retard for large stretches.

– Again the Pats stuck with their simple packages/personnel on defense, and while there was a little moving around, things were generally straighforward with no changes from what we’ve seen in past weeks.

– Tracy White did see some coverage linebacker time, but that was probably more due to them playing it careful with Hightower than it was dissatisfaction with Spikes/Hightower in coverage roles.

– Chandler Jones stepped up and made some big plays and that’s what it’s all about for the Elephant. What a player this guy is going to be. And I didn’t even see it coming. You can have off days if you’re Ninkovich as long as you hold the edge, but Jones needs to be a playmaker and that’s exactly what we’re seeing out of the rookie. If he’s not in the running for DROY by the end of the year I’ll be upset.

– Make no mistake, despite the score, the difference here was clutch play late in the game. That is what they’ve lacked in the games they’ve lost over the last two years. So to dig themselves out of that kind of hole, on the road, after an extended run of poor play and bad breaks, down by two touchdowns, it’s bodes very well for the complexion of this year’s edition of the Pats.

Week four always a proving point for Patriots

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Week four of the Patriots season has always seemed like a proving point where we get a sense of just what kind of team we’ve got this year.

Let’s take a look back at all the week four games since 2005, the last time the Pats closed the first quarter of their season out with a loss.

2005 – Pats are mauled at home by the Chargers 41-17, coming off a costly win in Pittsburgh that saw them lose both Matt Light and Rodney Harrison for the season. This set the tone of inconsistency as the Pats would go on to lose three of their next seven. This was arguably one of the worst Patriots teams in the Belichick era.

2006 – Coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Broncos 17-7 in what was supposed to be a “revenge game” the Pats had to go to Cincinnati to face a 3-0 Bengals team that had just beat the Steelers. Many were predicting this was the end for the Pats, but New England responded with a 38-13 beatdown of the Bengals, who had looked like an offensive juggernaut up to that point.

2007 – In hindsight it may be easy to overlook the 2007 Pats 34-13 win over the Bengals in this week four, but in the lead up to the game there were quite a few pundits who thought the Bengals would hold their own at home. Still, the 2007 Pats tend to be outliers regardless, but this was a big win on Monday Night Football that kept the undefeated train rolling.

2008 – The Pats had a bye in week four but they needed that extra week to regroup after the Wildcat coming out party that handed them a shocking 38-13 pounding at home from the Dolphins. The Pats played well enough to win, but it was clear that the Pats were just not the same without Tom Brady. The following week they looked listless in a 30-10 loss to the Chargers.

2009 – The Pats were coming off a home win against the Falcons, but the Ravens were undefeated and looked like the class of the AFC. The resulting 27-21 Pats win showed a toughness not demonstrated very often in 2009, but it was proof that the talent was there if they could just put it all together. Which they never did. If there was one year where week four wasn’t a sign of things to come, this was it.

2010 – The Pats looked really vulnerable in the three prior games. They squeaked out wins against the Bengals and Bills, and had looked lethargic in a 28-14 loss to the Jets. Going into Miami on Monday Night looked to be a tough match up, especially with the 2-1 Dolphins playing the Jets tougher than the Pats had. But the the Pats rolled on the back of their special teams and defensive play, coming out with a dominating 41-14 win that reminded the NFL they weren’t going anywhere.

2011 – The Pats were coming off game in Buffalo where they blew a 21-3 lead and the 2-1 Raiders had put up 69 points in their last two games. Raiders fans were confident as they always are, knowing Oakland is never an easy place to play. The Pats showed great focus and the kind of perseverance that would become a trademark of their 2011 season, pulling out a 31-19 win.

As you can see the Patriots almost always lose a game and/or have some shakiness in the first three weeks of the season, which has set up some pivotal battles in week four that more often than not reveal some of the characteristics of this year’s team.

In most cases the Patriots have responded, but either way we should have a better sense of just who the 2012 Patriots will be come Monday.