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5 Keys for Patriots vs. Jets

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The Patriots are coming off one their most embarrassing losses in two-plus seasons, and who better than to help them refocus their efforts than the good old Jets? A solid win over a divisional rival could be just what New England needs to get on track. And once they do get on track they’re going to reel off a lot of wins and be very tough to beat. Just the kind of game the Hoodie ordered!

Our Five Keys to taking down Rexy’s crew after the jump…

1. Be ready for the kitchen sink – If I’m the Jets I’m not holding anything back and going with the most aggressive game plan I can put together. They’re not going to win this game by taking a conservative approach. They need to take shots down the field. They need to use every little Tim Tebow trick they’ve been saving up. They need to go for it on 4th down. Fake punts. Onside kicks. All of it. And the Patriots need to be ready in all three phases. The way to counter aggression is to turn it against your opponent. Stop them on 4th down. Don’t bite on fakes. Be ready for whatever they might throw at you. Just do not let them get rolling with all the tricks and gimmicks, because if they do this is going to be a game.

2. Three 20+ pass plays or less – I’m not so much of a blind homer to believe the Patriots pass defense will suddenly go air-tight on us, and I fully expect the Jets will actually let Mark Sanchez air it out multiple times (look out those sitting near the field). And why shouldn’t they? It’s the Patriots biggest defensive weakness. But instead of the 6 or 7 long passes the Pats have been giving up, let’s just keep it to three. Maybe we could even pick off a couple of them? Regardless the Patriots defense has to be doing a lot of back end coverage work this week, because it doesn’t happen often, but every now and then Sanchez has his deep ball working (see playoffs, 2010). They need to start showing improvement this week back there, things have been stagnant or worse since the Ravens game.

3. Fast and Furious on offense – With all this talk of the evolution of the speedy no-huddle you might remember that the Jets were a major influence on the Patriots desire to play faster on offense. In week two of 2009, with Wes Welker out, the Patriots resorted to putting play numbers on sideline signs to quickly communicate the calls to their offense. Belichick knew Rex Ryan’s style of defense, and that if you give them time to disguise their defense it played right into their hands. The answer? Play fast, force them to react and not dictate, and this should be on full display on Sunday. The Jets defense is sprinkled with youth and inexperience, and on our homefield it’s the perfect recipe for the Blitzkreig.

4. Throw it where Cromartie ain’t – AntonioCromartie has elevated his play since Revis went down, but the depth after him with Kyle Wilson leading the way, is lacking. They’ll move Cro around depending on the situation, but I’d expect to see him on Lloyd for the most part. Welker is the kind of receiver that gives Cro problems. This will likely open things up for Hernandez, who could have a big game. Perhaps the most interesting match-up will be Gronk vs. the new Jets safeties. They were brought in to stop him, let’s see how they do. But with such a talent disparity in coverage it would probably be best to generally avoid Cro whenever possible.

5. Finish – “Finish” will henceforth replace “Win” as the final key each week because that’s how the Patriots are going to start winning these close games they’ve been losing. I’m not going to point fingers at either side of the ball, it’s a team-wide problem and the only way for it to change is for playmakers on both sides of the ball to start stepping up and making plays when the game is on the line. There has not been enough of this yet from the 2012 Patriots and it’s time to re-establish that part of the team’s identity. When an opponent is on the ropes, and the opportunity is there to finish them off, the Past must do so. Whether it’s the defense getting a stop, or the offense getting that final first down or score to seal it. Finish them!

Pats playmakers need to step up in crunch time

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There’s something disturbing about the fact that the Pats are 12-12 since 2009 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

But I think there’s some context needed.

Let’s also point out the Pats have lost just 5 games in that time span by more than 7 points, and that includes an 8-point loss to the Steelers in 2011.

The other four:

2009: Loss to Saints (38-17), Loss to Ravens in playoffs (33-14).

2010: Loss to Jets (28-14), Loss to Browns (34-14)

So yes the Pats are average in close games, but they also haven’t lost by more than one score in almost two years.

We can go round and round with whether the offense or defense bears more responsibility, but what it comes down to is playmakers making plays in crunch time. A single defensive stop or offensive third down conversion could’ve made the difference in any of those 12 close losses.

In past years they got those plays, especially in 2010 when they didn’t lose a single close one until the playoff game against the Jets.

What it comes down to this year is that the Patriots need their playmakers, old and new, to start stepping up at the end of games. If they do there’s no limit to how far this team can go.

How the Patriots defense can turn it around

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The Patriots have lost three games in 2012 by a combined four points, and despite the thin line between 6-0 and 3-3, having a .500 record in mid-October is uncomfortable for a fan base accustomed to ruling the AFC East with an iron fist.

While the offense and defense share the blame for the up-and-down start, it’s been the defense that has re-established itself as the primary weak link. Tom Brady and the offense have had their moments of shaky play, but for the most part few would argue they lack the personnel or scheme to take this team far in the playoffs.

The defense though continues to struggle in ways we’ve seen for the better part of three seasons. Whether it’s the secondary or the pass rush the Pats just can’t seem to put it all together consistently for sixty minutes.

But there’s still much football to be played, and I haven’t given up hope that this is a defense that can win a Super Bowl. There certainly needs to be improvements in a few different areas, so here are three keys as I see them to solidifying the Pats defense.

1. Steve Gregory & Patrick Chung – Health & Consistency

We’ll start on the back end because the Pats have been the worst in the NFL for the second straight season at defending the long ball. Neither Chung nor Gregory are the second coming of Ed Reed, but if both can get healthy and put together a string of games together they’re both bound to improve.

Let’s not forget the Pats were worse through 6 games last year on big plays (37 20+ pass plays given up compared to 33 this year), and that was a less talented group. Now with Chung, Gregory and Tavon Wilson the Pats just need to string some games together with them all on the field. In a defense that relies on communication, disguise and intelligence you can’t understate the importance of experience.

If all of them can get back on the field the back end should tighten up, and just a couple less big plays per game would make a big difference. And at this point I believe Gregory and Wilson might be the best starting options.

2. Myron Pryor – The Great Unknown

Myron Pryor hasn’t played a full season since 2009 so it might be foolish to even attempt to count on him for anything, however he is exactly the kind of player the Pats need on the defensive line right now. In the 2011 opener against the Dolphins Pryor was a pass rushing force, grading out with a team-leading 3.9 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus.

What the Pats have struggled with is finding an interior rush presence; a disruptor who can get up the field. Mike Wright was the last good one they had, and the signing of Jonathan Fanene this past off-season was an attempt to fill that role, but that didn’t work out. With Pryor starting the season on the PUP list the Pats have been forced to use Jermaine Cunningham as their top interior rusher, a role that he has not excelled in.

If Pryor can somehow come back and live up to the pass rush flash we saw at various times over the 2009-2011 seasons it would add a much-needed dynamic to defensive front.

3. Dont’a Hightower and the Blitz

Hightower was praised for his versatility coming out of Alabama, which included rushing the passer with his hand down in passing situations. There’s no question the Pats are a conservative defense, but they must find a way to utilize Hightower and his skill for getting after the quarterback.

We were just starting to see some of it when he sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick on the play he was injured. He has a burst that helps him stand out and if Pryor is not the answer I’d look at trying Hightower as an interior rusher instead of Cunningham. He has the size to hold up. Or at the very least just start sending him on blitzes more often.

Bottom line, Hightower’s not especially needed in coverage so they should unleash him in a variety of ways to get after the quarterback.

Conclusion

Yes, the recurring theme here is that the Pats just need to get healthy, most importantly with Gregory and Hightower. The good news is that they seem close, and once they’re back out there it’s just a matter of them staying healthy and getting reps.

As for Pryor it might be a little pie in the sky thinking he’ll come in and be the interior presence they need, but I’m still holding out hope for it. He’s unlike any other defensive lineman they have.

A little health and experience will go a long way. The Patriots defense always improves and if these factors can all come together there’s no question in my mind they’ll be a better group than the one that fell just short of the Super Bowl last season.

Notes on PFF’s Patriots grades: Week 6 Seahawks

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ProFootballFocus.com’s grades are out and here’s what stood out to us.

Best Offensive Grade: Ryan Wendell (3.3)

Worst Offensive Grade: Nate Solder (-2.7) and an especially horrid -4.9 in pass protection.

Best Defensive Grade: Devin McCourty (2.1)

Worst Defensive Grade: Kyle Love/Jermaine Cunningham (-2.1)

First things first, I think fans need to lay off of McCourty a bit. He’s not without his flaws, but he’s closest thing to a real professional defensive back that we have. He remains a building block as I see it, and would benefit immensely from a safety that he trusted over the top of him. He was targeted 3 times covering Baldwin and didn’t give up a catch to him.

Vince Wilfork was graded in the red for the 4th time in the last 5 games with a -2.0, including a -1.9 in run defense. We always take this ratings with a grain of salt, but by PFF’s measurements Wilfork is having a bad season.

Jermaine Cunningham played his most extensive snaps since 2010 but was still tied for worst graded defender. Myron Pryor could potentially compete for his role as a sub package interior rusher if he comes back this week. Cunningham does not seem to be excelling there and I’m starting to be unsure if he’s got a long term future in New England.

Kyle Arrington had a -1.2 in pass coverage, an area he’s graded negatively in every game. He’s finally been playing a role we thought he’d excel in (nickel slot) but his struggles continue. I also don’t think he’s got much more of a future with the Pats past this season unless it’s as a dime back.

Average outing for Brandon Spikes, really good in run defense/pass rush (1.4/1.2), bad in coverage (team worst -1.6).

Tavon Wilson got a 0.0 score in pass coverage. Not sure how that happens. The 46-yard game winning TD was the only credited catch on him.

Kyle Love has scored progressively worse and worse every game this season, except one minor spike up to 0.0 last week before falling to the team-worst -2.1 this week. Need more of an impact out of him.

Woodhead had a solid day and has stacked two solid back to back green scores for the first time in his Patriots career.

Mankins struggled in run blocking (-1.9), but was solid in pass coverage (1.4).

Brady was 3-for-3 for 101 yards and a TD throwing to the deep left. Rare.

Awful game for Ridley who was in the red in both the running game (-1.3) and passing game (-1.5).

Dan Connolly had an average score, but has been slowly improving in each game this season. Hopefully that trend continues and he’ll be in the green this week.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Seahawks

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It’s been hard this week not to develop quite the little crush on Seattle’s defense, and I’m excited to see how the Patriots offense responds to the challenge. The Seahawks do all the things that have given our offense fits over the last few years, and in a difficult environment it should be very interesting to see how our offense responds.

Here are our five keys for the Pats to get a win in Seattle.

1. Lloyd beating Sherman/Browner – One of the things that is so entertaining to watch with the Hawks, which is foreign to Pats fans in recent years, is their secondary. They’re all long and fast, and force turnovers just like the Pats do. The Seahawks like to play press man coverage, a technique that has worked in the past to disrupt Brady’s timing, especially on short routes. The thing about man is that if you can isolate someone in coverage it can make big plays possible. Brandon Lloyd should see plenty of balls thrown his way if he’s able to win at the line of scrimmage, something that you want to see out of your X-receiver.

2. Slow spread – I don’t think we’ll see a lot of hurry-up this week, but I do think we’ll see plenty of Brady in shotgun, spreading the field and choosing his best match-up. Communication in an environment like Seattle is tough enough as it is without trying to yell across the field, even with the vaunted one word play calls. The Pats can take their time, and find the match-up they like and exploit. But the key to making sure they can run the spread is…

3. Prove the ground game is elite – This week we’ll truly see how good the Patriots run game is. The Seahawks feature Football Outsiders’ 3rd ranked run defense, and as much as the Pats would like to avoid that strength it doesn’t get too much better with their 5th ranked pass defense. Still, they will have to get some movement on the ground to prevent the skilled Seahawk pass rushers from teeing off on Brady. If the Pats do run a lot of spread it could be Danny Woodhead that’s the lead back. Screen passes with him could be huge, especially with a linebacker on him. Kam Chancellor is big and talented, but covering a small quick back like Woody isn’t his strength.

4. Bait Wilson into two turnovers –  I’m pretty positive about what we’re going to see from the Pats defense on Sunday; their straightforward 4-3 defense with not a lot of blitzing. Russell Wilson will complete some passes, but he’s still young and will make at least a couple head scratching throws. Belichick never likes to get too aggressive on young quarterbacks, which can be maddening to watch, but ultimately it will lull Wilson into a sense of security and that’s when he’ll make mistakes. As we wrote about earlier this week it all comes down to turnovers. If Wilson makes two bad throws that are picked the Pats are a near certainty to win. My biggest question though is whether or not the Pats will give up another slew of 20+ yard pass plays to a rookie quarterback. I’d like to think they won’t but I’m not going to be surprised if they do. But if they keep him in pocket, and force him to throw into small windows it’s highly unlikely he’s going to put together the perfect 60-minutes needed to put up more points than the Patriots.

5. Win – Anytime you face a confident, hot defense on their home turf you learn a lot about your football team. The Patriots offense has been the toast of the NFL world for the past two weeks, and surely Seattle’s capable defenders would like nothing more than to bring them back to Earth. They have the ingredients to do so, but even if their defense shuts down Brady and the Pats offense, it’s all ultimately going to come down to the turnovers. It should be a fantastic test, and I’m excited I’ll be there to witness it in person.

Check out all our 5 Keys articles!

Patriots defense lives or dies by turnovers

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Though there is always a correlation between forcing turnovers and winning football games, the Patriots defense of the past two-plus seasons is an extreme example.

Since 2010 the Patriots are 32-9, including playoffs. Over that stretch the defense forces an average of 2.69 turnovers in their wins, and just .92 turnovers in their defeats.

Only twice over that time period did the Pats win a game where they didn’t get a turnover, against the Ravens in 2010 and the Jets in 2011. And of the other 30 wins there were just 8 times where they only forced a single turnover.

That means in 69% of the Patriots wins since 2010 they’ve forced multiple turnovers.

Of their 9 losses they failed to force a single turnover in 3 of them, which includes both the AFCDG loss to the Jets in 2010 and the Super Bowl loss to the Giants in 2011. Clearly the defense picked the wrong time to suddenly stop their ball hawking ways.

Just twice have they forced 2 turnovers and still lost, against Buffalo in 2011 and the Cardinals this year. Both of those games came down to a field goal kick as time expired to determine the Pats fate.

The Pats defensive formula for success is pretty simple. They’re going to give up yards, and especially long passes, but if they can just force 2 turnovers they’re probably going to win. They’re 22-2 when they get 2 turnovers or more.

So if opposing offenses can just keep the ball safe they’ll give their team a chance to win, regardless of how unstoppable the Pats offense can be at times.

Somehow the Pats defense needs to find a way to become less dependent on getting turnovers, because most of the time they require mistakes by the offense. Punts are something the defense should be able to do on their own simply by executing. Unfortunately that’s easier said than done.

Three plays that defined Kevin Faulk’s Patriots career

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When a player like Kevin Faulk retires it’s hard to go through the stats and numbers to sum up what that player meant to the franchise. You can look through Faulk’s career numbers and maybe say his best seasons were:

  • 2003 – 1,351 all purpose yards
  • 2008 – 1,161 all purpose yards

But there’s so much that those numbers don’t cover. Faulk was the patriarch of the swiss army knife in the Belichick Pats offense. He could run, he could catch, he could return kicks and punts, and he could even throw a bit (2-for-4, 21 yards career, including one to Tom Brady). On that side of the ball he summed up everything the Patriots ask of their players like no one else.

If you want an accurate depiction of what Faulk meant to the Patriots I think the best way to do so is to look at three specific plays that really sum it up.

Game One: 2006 AFC Divisional Playoff: Patriots @ Chargers

The Patriots had been sloppy all day but managed to make just enough plays  to stay in it against a Chargers team everyone thought was headed to the Super Bowl. Late in the fourth quarter the Patriots trailed by 8 until, just five plays after Troy Brown had saved the season by stripping an interception from Marlon McCree’s hands, Tom Brady found Reche Caldwell in the end zone to pull the Pats within two points.

With under five minutes to go the Patriots needed the two-point conversion to tie the game and save their season. The play? A direct snap to Faulk that worked more than a few times in his career.

In a gotta-have-it playoff moment it was Faulk the Patriots turned to, and he came through.

Game Two: 2007 Patriots @ Colts

After losing the 2006 AFC Championship in Indy, then returning to the site of the crime with an 8-0 record the next season, the Patriots wanted to make a statement vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts.

The Colts were the first team to shut down the Pats explosive offense, holding a 20-10 lead with under 10 minutes to go in the game. After a Welker score the Pats trailed by three, until a short dumpoff was turned into a 13-yard game winning touchdown by Faulk after he sliced through the Colts defense.

Nothing about Faulk’s numbers stand out from the day, 29 yards rushing on 7 carries and 20 yards receiving on 3 catches, but in the most important moment it was Faulk who made the play to seal the win for the undefeated Patriots.

Game Three: 2009 Patriots @ Colts

Sadly I’m going to end this one on a play that didn’t turn out the way us Patriots fans wanted it to. We haven’t rehashed 4th and 2 much in these parts recently but in hindsight it really says a lot about Faulk.

We all know what the situation was. The Pats led 34-28 late in the fourth quarter when they faced a 4th and 2 at their own 28. They decided to go for it in one of the most controversial coaching decisions of Bill Belichick’s career.

With the game on the line, and Wes Welker seemingly open, it was still Faulk that Brady threw to. And it was a tough catch, but one that he held on to. Unfortunately he was spotted just short, though I’m sure plenty of Pats fans still think he got the yardage for the first down.

It’s hard to truly describe what made Kevin Faulk one of the key cogs in the Patriots dynasty, but those of us who watched the games know that when we needed a play number 33 was a go-to guy. His leadership and versatility are woven into the foundation of the Patriot way, and helped set a standard that is still being lived up to today.

Even in failure these plays show the kind of player Kevin Faulk was for the Patriots; the kind of weapon you could trust to make the biggest plays in the biggest moments on the biggest stages.