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5 Keys for Patriots vs. Bills

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It would be hard deny I’m a little worried about this game in Buffalo. Yes, the stats look nice for the Pats vs. the Bills over the past decade, Tom Brady has only ever lost twice to them. But those who have watched the games know how close most of those have been, and it’s a pretty sure bet we’re in for another close one this weekend.

Now the Pats come into Buffalo at 1-2, with the closest thing resembling an early season “must win” in the last decade. And make no mistake the Bills are a team that have been constructed in recent years with taking down the Patriots in mind, and they’ve done it in a way that a Patriots uber blogger like myself can appreciate. If I was building a team to take down my beloved team, I’d do it the way the Bills are, though I’d surely still wish I had a couple more weapons on offense and maybe a slightly more consistent quarterback.

They can rush the passer with four, are not afraid to play press man coverage and they have a quick passing game that can eat the soft zone “bend don’t break” defense up. All of these things have given the Patriots fits over recent years.

So this should be an excellent game, and one that requires the Patriots turn in their most complete team effort of the 2012 season. Here are my weekly five keys as to what they’ll need to do to pull out the win and get back to .500.

1. Defensive Disguise: The thing that stands out most with Ryan Fitzpatrick is just how quickly he gets the ball out. He rarely holds it longer than 3 seconds and as a result he is barely ever sacked. He can however be fooled into making some bad throws, especially with such an accelerated decision process, so the Patriots must try to force those throws to the wrong places by disguising what they’re doing. From a personnel standpoint the Patriots have been fairly straightforward on defense, but this week we could finally see some switches, or at the very least, some guys in spots we haven’t seen before, especially from the usual edge rushers. Don’t be surprised to see Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich standing up and walking around. We saw the premiere of the “five and dime” defense against Buffalo a few years back and could see something similar this time around.

2. Interior Chaos: Another way to force Fitzpatrick into his interception-throwing ways is make sure his sight lines are not clear. This is done with an interior rush that can push the pocket and run stunts to keep the throwing lanes murky at best. It’s not something the Patriots have excelled at since losing Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, and they might be hard-pressed to find the personnel to pull it off this week but they’ll have to try something. Part of me wonders if newly-signed Terrell McClain was brought in just for this purpose. Even so expect to see a good dose Jermaine Cunningham and perhaps Brandon Deaderick to try and cause some disruption inside. And if Vince Wilfork could turn in a game like he did in last year’s AFC Championship that would be extremely helpful.

3. Believe it or not, a lot of Ridley: The Bills will run nickel personnel on defense as their base and that will tempt the Patriots to run on them, as it should. The Bills were built to combat Tom Brady’s aerial assault but can the Pats finally break through with their power running game and have that lead the way like the passing game usually does? It would improve their chances in Buffalo by not playing into the strength of their defense. The problem is that the Pats have lacked a significant push from their offensive line in the running game, and Dareus, Williams, and Williams are no pushovers. Still, if the Bills think they have the answer to Tom Brady it might be time to change the question. Ridley has an explosive playmaking ability that the Pats have lacked on the ground in recent years. If he can get going it will take the Bills out of their comfort zone and the Pats could roll.

4. Neutralize Kyle Williams: Anyone who reads this blog knows how much I covet an interior rusher and Kyle Williams is arguably the best penetrator in the NFL. I believe Solder and Vollmer will be able to hold down the edges from the pass rushers but it’s the inside guys of Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and (hopefully) Logan Mankins (who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) that concern me. The problem with an interior guy like Williams is he takes away Brady’s ability to step up, and we’ve seen numerous times when he can’t step up he’s not nearly as effective. If Mankins can’t go this becomes even dicier. Connolly has struggled, Wendell has been inconsistent, and Mankins is still getting back into form before sustaining a hip injury that has limited him. The success of the Patriots offense might very well rest in the hands of how well they deal with Kyle Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent Marcel Dareus.

5. Win: As always it’s the only thing that matters. This is arguably the toughest division game the Patriots will have this season (depending on where the Jets are at come Thanksgiving) and it comes at a critical time for the Patriots. The Bills know the Pats are on the early season ropes, and there’s no question what dropping New England to 1-3 could do for their confidence. The Patriots need to find their identity still on offense, defense and special teams. They’ve had their moments in all three phases but there is still an element of unknown across all of them. 1-3 is not an inescapable hole but things will certainly not get easier with Peyton Manning coming to town next weekend. The Patriots need to send a message to the AFC East and the rest of the NFL that they’re still a team that can win the close ones, especially against a tough divisional opponent on the road. This could really be the game that puts the 2012 Pats on the right track.

Could Patriots make some defensive changes vs. Bills?

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One of the most interesting things about the Patriots defense three games into the 2012 season is how straight forward their personnel groupings have been. If you look back at the last couple years (2010, 2011) you’d find almost wholesale changes from week to week and even down to down.

But this year the Patriots have morphed into a lighter, nickel-front 4-3 base defense that is better equipped to defend the pass on all downs. The result is that while in 2010 and 2011 the Patriots were trending toward nearly two-thirds of the snaps in their sub-defense, this year the trend is going back down toward fifty percent (52.9).

Through three weeks we’ve seen minimal changes on defense. The only notable exception being Sterling Moore passing Ras-I Dowling on the depth chart at nickel corner. But outside of giving guys occasional rest what we’ve seen is:

Ninkovich-Wilfork-Love-Jones

Hightower-Spikes-Mayo

McCourty-Chung-Gregory-Arrington

In the nickel either Spikes or Hightower comes off and Moore comes on. In the dime Spikes, Hightower and Love are replaced by Moore, Tavon Wilson (money position), and Jermaine Cunningham (interior rusher). And that’s pretty much it.

As someone who has been tracking the Patriots defensive personnel and packages extensively over the past three seasons I can tell you it’s never been this straightforward and simple.

But Sunday night’s defensive performance was a nightmare, so could that prompt the first real significant changes to this simplified defensive approach? Unlike the Ravens, who like to take shots down the field, the Bills get the ball out in a hurry, so perhaps some tweaks are needed to better defend them.

Here are three possibilities as I see it:

1. Moore in for Arrington –  Arrington was picked on early and often against the Ravens and perhaps he would excel if he could just focus on nickel back duties. Moore has had a knack for making plays and seems to be on the rise since the start of season. Maybe it’s time to give him a shot at starting on the outside.

2. Tracy White in at nickel linebacker – Spikes and Hightower have been rotating at this spot, but both really struggled in coverage against the Ravens. This could be where the Pats miss Dane Fletcher the most, and an area where everyone assumed Bobby Carpenter was going to help out before he got cut. The Pats threw White into this spot in the Super Bowl, along with a couple other times late last season. He’s not ideal, but against the quick-throwing Bills he could have a quickness and experience edge that could helpful.

3. Newly-signed Terrell McClain in for Cunningham at interior rusher – The interior pass rush was a position we talked a lot about this off-season and Cunningham was somewhat of a surprise to win the spot. So far Cunningham has one sack, and no QB hits or pressures despite showing some flash in the preseason. Perhaps McClain, who is known to have some get-upfield burst and is a more traditional inside pass rush presence, should get a shot. Against the Bills the Patriots must cause some interior disruption even if they don’t get to the quarterback. If there’s one area we could see some changes this week I think this is it. Perhaps even Trevor Scott getting a chance, or Brandon Deaderick if he can get healthy.

Young Patriots defense must learn to close out the close ones

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If Sunday night’s Patriots loss to the Ravens felt familiar there’s good reason. Since the start of the 2011 season the Patriots have been in 10 games that were decided by one score or less, and in those games their record is 4-6, with the majority of the six losses being decided on the final drive.

Here’s how those ten games break down:

Of the four wins, two should be credited to the Patriots offense. Against Dallas in 2011 Tom Brady led the offense on a touchdown drive that stole the game from the Cowboys, and against Miami the Pats offense was able to hold on to the ball long enough to run out the clock to seal a 27-24 win.

Of the other two wins both have credit going to special teams. I’d chalk the AFC Championship game to a failure by the other teams special teams, or at best a success of the Pats special teams. Either way, the Pats defense didn’t do much to stop the Ravens on the final possession, and had Sterling Moore not knocked the ball from Lee Evans’ grasp it would’ve been a decisive defensive failure.

The other win came against Indianapolis in 2011 and it was a Pats-recovered onside kick that preserved the tighter-than-it-should’ve-been victory over the Manning-less Colts.

That brings us to the six losses. One goes to special teams failure (missed field goal two weeks ago against the Cardinals) and one goes to offensive failure (a Patriots safety that killed any chance of a comeback against the Steelers in 2011).

But the other four of them were defensive failures on the final possession of the game, just like we saw Sunday night. And let’s remember the Patriots have only lost six games total since the start of the 2011 season. That’s right, four of the six came on what amounted to the final drive by the opposition.

In order they were:

2011:  Bills 34, Patriots 31 – Defense allows 17 points in the 4th quarter including an 8-play, 70-yard drive for the game winning field goal as time expires.

2011: Giants 24, Patriots 21 – Defense allows 14 points in the 4th quarter including a 9-play, 64-yard touchdown to effectively end the game.

Super Bowl 46: Giants 21, Patriots 17 – Defense allows a 9-play, 88-yard touchdown drive that left only 57 seconds on the clock, ultimately giving the Giants another Lombardi Trophy.

And finally our newest entry from last night…

2012: Ravens 31, Patriots 30 – Defense allows 10 points in the final 7 minutes, including an 8-play, 92 yard touchdown drive and a 7-play, 70-yard drive for the game winning field goal as time expired.

As you can see all four of these games feature frighteningly similar endings with the Pats defense allowing long drives late in the fourth quarter that sealed the loss. Of course the offense can shoulder some of the blame too, but as soon as the Patriots failed to convert their final third down against the Ravens, history made it pretty clear how the game was going to end.

If the Patriots are ever going to win another Super Bowl their defense is going to have to learn how to close out games again. We can only imagine what might’ve happened against the Eagles in Super Bowl 39 if it was our current defense out there. Instead of a Rodney Harrison interception we might be looking at Donovan McNabb raising the Lombardi.

What it comes down to is playmakers making plays when it’s all on the line. This is still a young defense and this is the final step in their maturation. As we saw on Sunday night they are so close. If McCourty or Arrington just holds on to one of those interceptions the Patriots likely win the game. They’re not far off, but the question is can they turn that last corner this season?

The only time in 2011 the Patriots defense got a stop when they needed one most was when Jerod Mayo intercepted Rex Grossman to seal a 34-27 win over the Redskins. And that was after the Redskins had drove 71 yards and looked poised to tie the game from the 9-yard line.

The last time before that the Patriots defense closed out a game was Peyton Manning’s final time facing the Pats as a Colt in 2010. Wow, it’s been a while.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Ravens

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We all had this game circled when the schedule first came out and now here it is, the AFC Championship rematch. Amazingly one of these teams will be sitting at 1-2 come Monday and facing a lot of questions. Here are my keys as I see it to what the Pats need to do to avoid that being them.

1. Make Haloti Ngata Problem (see what I did there?) – The Patriots offensive line generated little push against the Cardinals and the Ravens have a similarly stout front led by Haloti Ngata. What the Patriots cannot afford to do is become one dimensional and that starts with the offensive line opening up holes for Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead. Woodhead actually had an impressive day against the Ravens in 2010, putting up 63 yards on 11 carries. He could be a sleeper this weekend. But that’s dependent on the guys up front generating some push that they didn’t generate last weekend. Dan Connolly played well against Ngata as a center last year, the Pats will need him back and healthy at right guard to hopefully do the same thing this year. If the Pats can make him Ngata  factor they should be able to control the ball.

2. Unleash the Gronk – Gronk was underutilized against the Cardinals, while  Brent Celek was tearing up the Ravens for 157 yards. The Ravens still just don’t have an answer for tight ends, especially when it’s Dannell Ellerbe. Of course this would be far more exploitable with Hernandez playing, but Gronk is enough of a weapon in his own right. He should be the main focus of the Patriots attack, whether it’s Ellerbe, Ray Lewis, or the dreaded Bernard Pollard covering him.

3. Defending “Bombs Away” – There’s no secret about the Ravens style of offense.  They’re going to line up in 21 personnel and throw/hand the ball to Ray Rice a bunch, and take at least a few shots down the field. Stopping Rice is of course the primary key, but that’s obvious and I expect the Patriots should be adept at doing so with Wilfork and Spikes leading the way. What is concerning to me is not getting shredded through the air. Yes Devin McCourty seems back on track this season, but this is the first legitimate test he’s faced. The key guy that could make a real impact is Steve Gregory. Patrick Chung was awful in coverage in the AFCCG, but now it should be Gregory who’s on the back end providing over the top help. An explosive play for the Ravens could really break this thing open for them. The Pats must prevent that and force Joe Flacco to take his check downs.

4. Patience – If there’s one negative defining characteristic that has carried over from the Billick regime to the Harbaugh regime it’s that the Ravens can and will implode if things don’t go their way. 2007’s game was a prime example when you had Bart Scott firing a ref’s flag into the stands. We even saw evidence of it last week with all the complaining the Ravens did about the refs. The lesson is to be patient and stick to the plan. The Ravens are good and will make their share of plays, but as soon as the Patriots start to gain momentum it’s time to put the peddle to the floor and not look back. The more things snowball on the Ravens the worse they’ll react to it.

5. Win – As always it’s the only thing that matters, and it seems like just about every pundit out there (except Mike Ditka) is picking against the Patriots. One thing about the BB reign is that whenever the tide seems to turn against the Pats, and everyone is picking against them they always seem to put together their best football. The 2010 Steelers game is a prime example. That’s no guarantee, and the Ravens have as much motivation and fire power as anyone to take us down, but it’s in games like these, against tough, physical opponents on the road that you find your true mettle. A first round bye could possibly hang in the balance Sunday night, and if the Pats want one of those for the third year in a row they’re going to have to go into Baltimore and take it.

One final key: Avoid Bernard Pollard at all costs…

Is it plausible the Pats are saving Welker?

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One of the theories floating around out there about Wes Welker is that the Pats are simply trying to preserve a valuable asset and make sure he’s still deadly for the playoffs. I’m not sure even a overly-optimistic homer like myself believes that’s the case but let’s take a look at why it might make sense.

The first question that must be analyzed is why is Julian Edelman playing in 2-WR sets over Welker? There have been reports that Edelman outplayed Welker in training camp, so why not find out once and for all, if given the chance, can Edelman be a legitimate Z-WR in the Patriots offense. With Welker likely gone next year finding out if Edelman can take over for him now is in the long-term interest of the team.

There’s no question Tom Brady has been over-reliant on Welker at times over the past few years, and the quick decline of slot receivers like TJ Houshmanzadeh and Wayne Chrebet has been well documented. If Welker is on board with it there’s no question cutting his snaps a bit early in the year could pay dividends down the road.

However this goes directly against what we’ve come to know about Bill Belichick. Risk of injury rarely ever plays into his thinking. Could this signify a change in Belichick’s thinking?

With or without Welker on the field the Pats were planning on being a two tight end team. Could this also be a sign of them wanting to move more towards a power game than a move-quick spread one? An evolution that could possibly relegate Welker back to a simple “slot receiver”?

The book on the Pats offense with Welker, Gronk and Hernando as the center pieces is out, and we saw a game plan from the Cardinals from that book: Man coverage, flood the middle of the field. But by holding back on Welker it takes away arguably the biggest key for that version of the Pats offense. It also forces Tom Brady out of his Welker comfort zone and to adjust to some new weapons like Edelman and Brandon Lloyd.

It’s hard to fully believe the Pats are holding back on Welker to save him for the end of the season. There are some undoubted benefits in the long-term for the Patriots by doing so, but it seems very much out of the ordinary from what we know about Belichick. Usually “the best players play” and he throws caution to the wind when it comes to injuries.

What bears more research is how much Welker has declined over the course of the past few seasons? We know some obvious plays that he didn’t make, but what about his overall explosion? Or better yet, just how dinged up has he been in January and February? We’ll probably never know that for sure.

Regardless this is an interesting development for the Patriots and one that we’ll probably have to close the book on until Aaron Hernandez is healthy again. Whenever that may be…

Quick hit reaction to the Patriots 20-18 loss to the Cardinals

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I’m a big picture guy so I hope no one’s expecting me to overreact to today’s stinker. In simplest terms the Patriots lost Aaron Hernandez to an injury and seemed unprepared to alter their game plan accordingly. In the first half especially they looked disjointed on offense.

At one point it felt like Stevan Ridley making something out of nothing was the only offense they were getting. 

Brandon Lloyd made some great catches but I wouldn’t call him and Brady “deadly” just yet. Still, he seems to be getting it, and is showing that he can be a threat outside the numbers that we so badly need.

The defense had some patches on inconsistency but ultimately they made enough plays to still keep the offense in it. This is a positive sign. Spikes’ forced fumble is a big play to build on.

Special Teams was somewhere in between the offense and defense. Gostkowski made four field goals but the only one we’ll remember is the one he missed. And obviously the blocked punt, was a huge play that basically won  it for Arizona.

We’ll have all week to speculate about why Edelman is playing over Welker. Is Welker dinged? Are they just trying to manage him? Or is Edelman simply outplaying him? I’m sure we’ll get plenty of this over the next six days.

Sterling Moore looks to have overtaken Ras-I Dowling for the time being as the third cornerback. That could just be a game plan thing though I’m not sure how much we saw of Dowling.

I’ve just never felt comfortable criticizing an offensive coordinator for play calling, but I will say a lot of Josh McDaniels calls left me scratching my head. It was like without Hernandez they lost 80% of what they wanted to do.

In my game preview I thought the Pats would move fast and try more hurry up. It seemed to work later in the game, but where was it early on?

I just can’t get caught up in debating the replacement refs calls. We’ve had good calls and bad calls for us and against us over the years, it’s up to the players to adjust to how the game is being called.

Losses like these will happen early in the season. We see them (almost) every year. Jets in ‘09, ’10. Bills in ’11. It’s a little troublesome that this happened at home, but in the long term an out of conference loss in week two isn’t going to have overwhelming ramifications.

I have no doubt they can overcome the loss of Hernando, they’ll just be a little more conventional. I don’t think there’s any reason to be overly concerned that this offense is in trouble long term. They still need to figure out how to beat teams that aggressive man with them, but it seems like they have the pieces in place to challenge it better this year. Things just went wrong from the start and kept going wrong, and they couldn’t get the ship righted.

The main issues to focus on now:

  1. How long is Hernandez out for?
  2. How will the offense adjust without him?
  3. Can the defense continue to build on these two games?

Now we move on to an AFCCG rematch with the Ravens in Baltimore. Both teams are coming off losses, as if it wasn’t going to be a total war already. Hard to believe us or the Ravens will be 1-2 by next Monday. 

Hats off to the Cardinals for a well-executed game plan. There’s no doubt they were the better team today, but there’s still plenty to be optimistic about in New England.

5 keys for Patriots vs. Cardinals

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As required by the NFL blogger code of content here are our five key areas to watch this weekend when the New England Patriots take on the Arizona Cardinals.

1. Challenge the edges of the Cardinals defense – There’s no question the strength of the Cardinals defense is along their defensive line, but their outside linebackers struggled in week one. Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield are inexperienced and haven’t seen a precision offensive attack like the Pats’ blitzkreig. The Patriots were extremely successful against the Titans running Stevan Ridley at the edges and I’d expect that to continue this week. So whether it’s on the ground or through the air, challenging the outside linebackers looks like the way to go, especially if we can get them matched up on Gronk or Hernando. What they’ll want to avoid is trying to run right into the teeth of Calais Campbell, Dan Williams, and Darnell Dockett.

2. Jam Larry – I’m most looking forward to seeing how the Pats take away the Cardinals top weapon, Larry Fitzgerald. Regardless if they have one cornerback on him regardless of where he lines up or just roll coverage to him it will be important to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage. A common strategy against the Pats defense is to attack them with short passes and with Kevin Kolb’s experience in the west coast offense in Philly I’d expect we’ll see a good deal of this from the Cardinals. The Patriots defense cannot allow Fitz to make quick catches and then make plays with his feet. Force Kolb to hold the ball, and allow some time for the pass rush to get there. If Larry is given a cushion he’s going to eat us alive.

3. Spread and Dead – The Cardinals defense cannot be allowed dictate what they want to do. Going to the no-huddle will allow the Pats to counter the defense’s aggressiveness, while also testing the conditioning of the Cardinals d-line and the communication amongst some of the more inexperienced players.  I’d expect this means a little more of Woodhead than we saw last week, but Ridley should still get his fair share of touches. This could also be where we truly see how close Brady and Brandon Lloyd are to being on the same page. Don’t be surprised to see Wes Welker with 8+ catches either.

4. Protect our Tommy – Yes, this is somewhat of a generic key but it’s really true for this weekend. Campbell and Dockett combined for 10 QB pressures and 4 sacks against the Seahawks. Using the no-huddle can help keep them at bay, but the Patriots offensive line must play up to the task. There’s no secret that when teams get to Brady the Pats offense becomes very ordinary. The Cardinals will throw a fair share of blitzes as well so the communication must be airtight. The entire key to the Cardinals game plan should be to get to Brady by any means necessary, and it’s up to the o-line to make sure that doesn’t happen. It’s a new group, and Dan Connolly may or may not be out there. This will be an excellent test for them, against an experienced and physical three-man front.

5. Win – As always, this is all that matters. The Pats have always been tough to beat in Foxboro and the last thing they want to do is allow an NFC West team to come in and push them around on their turf. We know they’re probably due for a dud sometime in September but with a challenging three weeks ahead the Pats can’t afford to slip up against a team they should really beat.