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Top 5 surprises of Patriots training camp

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Tomorrow is the last day of Patriots training camp that will be open to the public and from there on out we’ll be left with only game action to dissect.

It’s important not to get too carried away when analyzing the preseason or practices. Offenses especially take time to come together and just because the process is a little choppy at times doesn’t mean it won’t all come together once the bullets are real.

With that in mind, there have still been a lot of interesting and unexpected things that we’ve seen over the last few weeks so let’s take a look at five things that have surprised me most this year in camp.

1. Chandler Jones looks ready to make an impact – This has to be the most obvious one but Jones has shined early and often and looks like the player that Patriots fans have been waiting for ever since Willie McGinest left. While we don’t want to get carried away it’s hard not to get overly excited thinking about what Jones could finally bring to the defense-  an edge presence that truly make offenses take note when preparing for the Pats. That said, I’m sure there will moments of inconsistency with Jones, but his performance thus far has to be a surprise to even the Patriots. Coming out of the draft many thought Jones would need a red shirt year to get stronger, but so far he’s looked stronger than expected and has held his own at the point of attack. The fact that he’s also flashed explosion and a variety of pass rush moves are just icing on the cake. It looks like Jones is legit and the benefit should trickle down through the entire defense.

2. Nate Solder struggles – I’m not one to hit the panic button too early but reports of Solder’s consistent problems in camp are a bit worrisome. Matt Light protected Tom Brady’s for a decade and it became easy to take it for granted, but let’s not forget there were plenty of times over that decade that the offensive line looked shaky in the preseason. Perhaps it was foolish to just assume Solder would take over such an important position and it would be a simple and smooth transition, but there’s no question that there’s now a spotlight on Solder and the bar that Light set for him is extremely high. The third preseason game, always the one where starters play the most, will be a chance for Solder to really put the worries of Patriots nation to rest.

3. Ras-I Dowling is still healthy!! – Sorry, had to do it, but Ras-I has made it through three weeks of training camp and hasn’t missed one practice! It’s a miracle!! (Knocking on wood of course). Ras-I looked strong to me against the Saints in the second half, and seems to be putting together a solid training camp where he’s starting to get comfortable and make plays on the ball. It sounds like how the Patriots plan on using him is as the third cornerback, coming in on the outside while they slide Kyle Arrington inside to the star position. Who know, by the opener he might secure the starting outside spot all together. Regardless, he’s healthy and given himself a chance to contribute.

4. Ryan Wendell at Center – Going into camp we all thought it was going to come down to Dan Koppen vs. Dan Connolly for the starting center spot, but lately Wendell has come on and looks to be a real contender for the spot. Wendell has gotten a lot of praise from Greg Bedard and looked solid in the game against the Saints. If Wendell does emerge at center it could mean the end of Koppen who can only play center, and allow a little more flexibility with Connolly and that could be especially important if Brian Waters does not return. Koppen has come on lately so the competition is far from over, but Wendell is someone to keep an eye on in the coming preseason games.

5. Rob Ninkovich to defensive end – We got a glimpse that Ninkopoop might be moving down onto the line from his primary strong side linebacker spot from mini-camp and he’s continued to do so in training camp. I’m sure he’ll be back standing up frequently but it is interesting to see a 260-pound player at LDE in what is probably the base nickel front. I doubt we’ll see him in this spot against run-heavy teams like the Jets and Ravens, but this illustrates that the Pats are not returning to the traditional 3-4 defense as their primary personnel package on defense. They are now more interested in getting as many athletes on the field as possible to challenge the passing game on all three downs. The question becomes how well can this sub-front hold up when teams try to run on it which they most certainly will. Jermaine Cunningham’s solid camp is another surprise and he could be an interesting player at this spot should injuries strike or they want to move Nink back to strong side linebacker.

Jets and Dolphins offenses will attack Patriots much differently

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One of the things we’ve learned this preseason about the Dolphins and Jets is just how polar opposite their offensive philosophies will be. The Jets will feature a return to the ball-control ground and pound, including using Tim Tebow in a variety of Wildcat and short yardage situations, while the Dolphins are going with the no huddle and trying to play fast.

The question is which philosophy is the right one to take down the Patriots? Everyone knows that the division has gone through New England for the last decade so if you’re not specifically trying to take down the Pats you’re not really trying.

There’s no question that the Pats pass defense has been a weak link over the past few seasons. Though the Dolphins don’t feature an elite quarterback at the moment, and have a collection of, in the words of Jeff Ireland, “a lot of 3, 4, and 5 receivers” but no clear 1’s or 2’s, there have been quite a few no-name offenses including back up quarterbacks who have thrown all over the Pats D, just look no further than Dan Orlovsky and the Colts last season.

But there’s also no secret that the Pats have gotten away from their run stuffing 3-4 base defense personnel. They will still use the 3-4 as they did on the fly against Tebow the first time they saw him in 2011, but there’s a clear lack of run stoppers like Richard Seymour and Ty Warren on the roster now. Could the Pats transition to more of a nickel-front base expose them to teams who want to run it down their throat?

In my view both teams have flawed lines of thinking. Even though the Dolphins lack talent, let’s say they’re able to execute the no-huddle and put up yardage. Even then I have doubts they’ll be able to keep up with Brady and the Pats many talented weapons. It’s like asking for a shootout with the most heavily armed guy on the block. Or bringing a hand gun to a machine gun fight.

As for the Jets it appears that for them to beat the Patriots things will need to go exactly according to their game plan. They can’t get behind. They can’t turn the ball over. And they’ll have to dominate at the line of scrimmage and put up five-yard carries at will. Are Shaun Green and Bilal Powell the kind of backs who are ready to carry the load like that? I’m not sure.

Tebow can be a valuable threat inside the 10-yard line, and provide some Wildcat runs of his own, but again those things are predicated on A) Mark Sanchez getting them inside the 10-yard line, and B) the Pats forgetting how they shut down Tebow for 7 of 8 quarters in 2011.

And we didn’t even mention the Jets lack of depth at wide receiver. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again that I love Rex Ryan as the coach of the Jets and I hope he remains there for a long time because I enjoy what he brings to the rivalry. But from a personnel stand point it’s hard not to think that since Rex took over there’s been a steady decline in talent for the Jets. They’ll need to see a good chunk of their young guys emerge this year or time could be running out on the Tannenbaum-Ryan regime.

If anyone is on the right track offensively to face the Patriots I have to go with the Bills. While they aren’t exactly loaded at wide receiver or tight end their quick passing game and the presence of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller give them a number of ways to not only move the ball but also control the clock.

As someone who has studied the Patriots defense closely I know the quick-passing game is the thing that can kill them, since they’re fond of the bend-don’t-break style. Of course then it comes down to a matter of consistent extended execution, which is the biggest hurdle, but Ryan Fitzpatrick could be just the quarterback to pull it off.

The Patriots defense should be better this year. Well, let’s put it this way, it will be hard for them to give up much more yardage than they did last year. The other teams in the AFC East will need bold game plans, fearless play-calling, and flawless execution for not one, but both games against the mighty Pats if they want a shot at the division, regardless of what their offensive strategy will be.

Reading the tea leaves on the Patriots defense

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One of the areas that I’ve been paying closest attention to during the past few days of camp is of course the defensive personnel and it seems that were starting to get a clearer picture of what the plan is.

As we’ve said all off-season, nickel is really the new base defense. The 3-4 defense that Belichick has been known for will still exist in certain situations, but the days of a pure 3-4 on early downs is gone.

You could say the Pats are now more of a 4-3 team, but the reality is that their base defense is really now closer to a 2-5-4 defense, in terms of really only having two strict linemen. The defensive ends have all stood up at some point in their career. Here’s how things have been breaking down:

The top six ends (Jake Bequette, Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Francis, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott) and the top six interior players (Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick, Jonathan Fanene, Kyle Love, Gerard Warren, Vince Wilfork) have been really getting after it, giving fans some hope that the pass rush might show more consistent signs of life.

Here are some of the issues to ponder. The model is physicality up the middle, athletes on the perimeter. This defense puts a huge responsibility on the interior linemen and middle linebacker in shutting down the run. If the defensive ends can be isolated they are possibly too light to hold up at the point of attack.  There’s no question teams will try to run off-tackle a lot when they see the Pats in this kind of formation.

Vince Wilfork is a big key, but so are the other tackles behind him, especially in the starting spot next to him. With Ron Brace putting a few good days of camp together it’s hard not to imagine Brace and Wilfork, two brick walls dominating the interior line. Jonathan Fanene has been another stand out so far, and with both Deaderick and Love in the mix as well the Pats have some diverse options depending on what kind of designer game plan they want to go with.

The plus is having a player like Brandon Spikes who can dominate the A gaps by coming down hill hard. Spikes’ ability in pass coverage has been questioned in the past, but with the extra athletes on the edge, I think it’s okay to give up a little bit in the pass coverage department with Spikes. And really he was looking pretty good in coverage last year in the playoffs.

Add in the blossoming physicality of Dont’a Hightower and the speed of Jerod Mayo and this defense is suddenly not the hapless bunch of no names and cast offs it has been of late, it’s a hand picked group of first and second round selections, most of whom come from the SEC.

Now of course you’ve got Nink who can play either DE spot or the SLB position. He’s not going anywhere with that kind of versatility. And you’ve got Trevor Scott who just might make a red shirt year for Jones very possible. But in the long term this would be a defense that would be together for a long time, and be peaking during the Brady turnover years.

Random Patriots musings as we count down to camp

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Here are some things I’ve been thinking about in recent days as we get ready for another run at the Lombardi trophy…

  • I finally rewatched the Super Bowl earlier this week. Yes, I really have to wait until football is right upon us before I can come to terms with yet another horrible finish on a grand stage.
  • Players I was most impressed with in the game upon watching it again: Patrick Chung, Sterling Moore, Brandon Spikes and Danny Woodhead.
  • Moore is almost a lock to me to make the team now. Including his performance in the playoffs he was neck and neck for the best defensive back on the Patriots in 2011 with Arrington. He gets his hands on a lot of balls and clearly is not intimidated in big games. He’s versatile as well, and I’m excited to see what he can do with a full off-season.
  • The media is spinning the Bills and Jets should challenge the Patriots this year but if the Patriots had “the worst defense in the NFL” last year and neither team could overtake them, so what makes anyone think they’ll do it this year? Because I certainly don’t expect the Pats D to be that bad again in 2012.
  • The offensive line is more concerning to me than the secondary right now.
  • The issue that became apparent to me for the Patriots in 2011 could be summed up in execution. On the offensive side it was the “death by a thousand cuts” way of moving the ball.  At times they’d be unstoppable, but when they weren’t clicking they could go cold as they did in crunch time of the Super Bowl. More explosive plays could really help them not be so dependent on continually executing so many plays to move the ball down the field. Brandon Lloyd should help this.
  • Conversely on the defensive side they were the most egregious example of “bend don’t break” in NFL history (per Football Outsiders Almanac). They forced teams to do the same thing they were doing offensively themselves: consistent execution to sustain long drives.
  • Defensively they relied on lesser QBs not being able to put together enough perfectly executed plays to keep up with Brady. It’s almost as if the defensively philosophy came down to “your QB can’t keep up with our QB, so we’re not going to be overly aggressive, we’re going to force you to beat us”.
  • Eli Manning was able to beat us. He executed in crunch time. The Patriots did not. It was there for the taking and we couldn’t take it. It’s just that simple.
  • For all the yards the Patriots gave up in 2011 this philosophy was largely successful. They lost four total games, none by more than eight points.
  • The question is whether or not this philosophy is sustainable as Brady gets older?
  • Ultimately the point is that it doesn’t need to always be this hard. If the Pats offense is able to challenge the outside and deep portions of the field better, along with some more explosiveness from the young running backs it should help them move the ball quicker and require less dependence on consistent execution.
  • This will also help the defense, but I don’t know if we can ever expect a Belichick defense to be overly aggressive and attacking. The Pats were 5th in the NFL rushing just 3 defenders, 15th rushing 4, 27th rushing 5.
  • Still, if you have better players you can rush fewer of them and still get pressure and force mistakes. That’s the key for them as I see it.

Predicting the Patriots PUP’ers

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The first buzz kill of a new Patriots season is always which guys open up camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. While players can come off the list at any time, and oftenit is just a case of not passing a physical and/or conditioning test, it puts a damper on things to not see important guys out there.

Let’s begin with who wasn’t practicing during the final OTA on June 13th (via Greg Bedard’s roll call).

Not present: TE Daniel Fells, TE Jake Ballard, DT Jonathan Fanene.

Rehabbing: TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle), RT Sebastian Vollmer (back), DE Jermaine Cunningham (undisclosed), LG Logan Mankins (knee), LB Brandon Spikes (knee), LB Tracy White (hernia), WR Matthew Slater (leg), Myron Pryor (shoulder).

Watching: OL Mark Zusevics, RB Brandon Bolden.

Injured: CB Alfonzo Dennard had his left leg examined and didn’t return from practice. DT Vince Wilfork walked off the field on his own.

Just about everyone on the list above could possibly open up on the PUP list, but we’re going stay positive and assume Dennard and Wilfork were fine.

My top five biggest question marks are:

  1. Gronk – has he completely recovered from off-season ankle surgery? We knew the timeline would make it close, but it will be excellent news if he’s out there from day one. But even if he isn’t we need him long term so there’s no need to push it. Him being active would be an uber-positive development and given his off-season activities I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t fully rehabbed.
  2. Vollmer – as I mentioned earlier this week the Pats really need Vollmer healthy this year. It’s one thing to replace one tackle, it’s another to replace both of them. He was still battling an ankle injury at least this spring, and I have a feeling they’ll bring him along slowly as well.
  3. Mankins – we’re assuming Mankins is going to be out there from day one, which is assuming the remarkable, but hey, he’s “super tough”. If he’s not out there it will mean it’s time to really start considering how Robert Gallery looks at guard. Maybe I’m crazy, but just opening camp on PUP would totally change my expectations for Mankins being ready for the opener.
  4. Myron Pryor – Pryor is one guy I’m really pulling for this year. The Pats need the kind of presence he brings, an active, get-up-the-field interior defensive lineman. He’s battled injuries for two years, this could be a make or break year.
  5. Cunningham – Cunningham struggles last season we well documented, and starting out on the PUP list would not be a good way to say good bye to his sophomore slump. He needs to be healthy and dominate in camp to win a roster spot.

Reports were that Fanene dodged a bullet with his minor injury in OTAs, hopefully that report was correct and he’s out there from the get go.

Spikes had to have surgery this off-season, he’s another one that needs a full camp or risk falling behind Dont’a Hightower on the depth chart. Stilll, if Spikes is out it will force the Pats to immerse Hightower even further.

Slater should have a roster spot locked up regardless if he’s PUP’d or not, but Tracy White will be in a fight for his life and needs to be out there.

Finally the most fun question of all, can Ron Brace finally open a training camp not on the PUP list? Seems like he’s healthy, but the conditioning run has been known to haunt him. If he can’t pass that he might be cut before training camp even starts.

New England Patriots Off-Season/Pre-Camp Awards

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As we wind down into the final week of the dreadfully long Patriots off-season it’s time to give out some awards and make some camp predictions. Let us bid the off-season of Gronk a fond farewell as we are proud to present the PatsPropaganda Patriots Off-Season/Pre-Camp Awards.

Best Team Move: Locking Up Gronk Long Term

Ensuring that Gronk is a Patriot for the prime of his career was a move that will ensure long-term offensive success. He could be the biggest piece in aiding the inevitable transition from Brady to the next guy.

Worst Team Move: Failing to Lock Up Welker Long Term

It takes two to tango, but failing to come to a long term agreement with Welker makes it likely this is his last year in New England. We’re used to contract battles like this, and sadly this will just be the latest indispensable Patriot who gets dispensed of before we the fans are ready.

Player Addition Most Likely To Bust: Chandler Jones

The sudden and over-the-top love for Chandler Jones in the final days before the draft surprised more than a few pundits, even coming from respected voices like Mike Lombardi and Mike Mayock. Even today some fail to see what made Jones a first round pick. He should be brought along slowly, but he’s going to need to at least flash something this year. I am most curious to see Jones in pre-season action, because from what my uneducated eyes have seen I’m not sure he’s a true impact player.

Player Addition Least Likely To Bust: Brandon Lloyd

Things are never a slam dunk with the Patriots until they did what everyone thought they would and acquired Brandon Lloyd. So far in OTAs Lloyd has been as-advertised, drawing praise from Tom Brady and flashing in ways Ochocinco never did. If he stays healthy he will be a deadly addition and fill a major need by challenging defenses on the perimeter.

Best Under-The-Radar Addition: Trevor Scott

Scott is your prototypical Pats free agent signing. Flashed some versatile potential for a perennial loser before getting set back by an injury. Now he’s healthy and plays a position of need. He’s one of my favorites to be a major impact newcomer this year.

Undrafted Rookie Most Likely to Make 53-Man Roster: Justin Francis

There’s always at least one and I have to go with what the beat guys observed in OTAs, especially Bedard, on this one. But from the sound of it, Francis has a lot of what the Pat lack. Most obvious is his ability to rush the passer on the interior, but also the versatility he has to play in multiple spots along the line.

Most Likely to Get Injured in Training Camp: Joseph Addai

I refuse to believe the guy who scored the game winning TD in the 2006 AFCCG against us is going to be a Patriot this year. Let’s just go the safe route and have him get hurt the second week of camp. Plus I could never give a Patriot I actually like this award.

Most Likely to be Most Improved: Stevan Ridley

I think Ridley puts the fumblitis behind him and becomes a back who can play any down. Without much of any off-season last year he did pretty well. Now with a full off-season he should really blossom.

Worst Off-Season: (tie) Gronk’s Shirts/Brady’s Hair

Hard to pick one or the other here. Gronk’s shirts were consistently disregarded and destroyed, while Brady’s hair kept making odd choices that put it in the line of fire. I look forward to hearing nothing more about either of these things.

Most To Prove: Jermaine Cunningham

It’s well documented how Belichick had his eye on Cunningham for a long time before drafting him. He showed some potential in 2010 but last year it was a Murphy’s Law year. Scheme change, injuries, and poor performance put him in a rough sophomore slump that has some calling him a long shot to even make the roster. I still think he has something to add to this team, but he’ll have to stay healthy and take a big leap forward.

Player Most Needed Healthy: Sebastian Vollmer

It’s one thing to replace one tackle, and Solder should have that covered, but if Vollmer is banged up again this year it’s going to put some serious question marks along the Pats offensive line. Marcus Cannon isn’t a disaster and could possibly be pretty good, but suddenly having two second-year guys on the edges of your o-line is never something you can be totally comfortable with. A healthy Vollmer would give the Pats a level of continuity that they’ll really need for an offensive line facing significant changes/questions.

Biggest Question Mark: Ras-I Dowling

Can he stay healthy? How good is he really? No Patriot has more questions surrounding him than Ras-I. First and foremost is he just needs to stay healthy, which is easier said than done. But if he can do that he has a chance to make the entire Pats secondary better. He could be starting game one, or end up cut or on IR again. I have no idea.

Tightest Camp Battle: Donte Stallworth vs. Deion Branch

When you break it down I think these two guys are neck and neck for a roster spot. Stallworth’s a little more of a burner, Branch is a little more savvy. I give a slight edge to Branch unless he’s lost any more of his quickness.

Breakout Star of 2012: Stevan Ridley

Ridley finally should give the Pats a homerun threat in their backfield, something they really have never had during Belichick’s reign. We can expect Brandon Lloyd to do great thing, but Ridley should be the player that everyone is talking about this year.

Comeback Position of the Year: Fullback

There’s no guarantee that either Spencer Larson or Tony Fiametta will make the roster but it’s nice to see some traditional fullbacks back on the Pats roster.  I don’t think it signifies any real philosophical change for the Pats (as much as I wish it did), but both guys are interesting players that would bring a new wrinkle both in short yardage situations and even in passing ones.

Most Needing to Stay Healthy: Patrick Chung

There’s a lot on the line for Chung this year as he enters the final year of his rookie deal being the de facto leader of an oft torched secondary. No doubt he’s the Pats best safety, but just how much will the Pats be willing to spend to lock him up long term? Staying healthy is key, and not an easy thing to do for a player who plays where and how Chung does. His health could go a long way toward determining how much improved the defense is. Let’s remember every year Rodney Harrison stayed healthy the Pats went to the Super Bowl and that’s where Chung is playing now.

Best Rookie: Dont’a Hightower

I don’t know how Hightower will be used but I think he’ll be used a lot and give the Pats a lot of flexibility in their linebacking corps. Look for him, Ninkovich and Spikes to have a battle royale in camp to determine who plays where, but I think when the dust settles we’ll see more and more of Hightower. It’s hard not to be excited to add one of the best players off one of the best defenses in college football. He has to help, right?

Guy Not Named Brady We Can’t Afford to Lose: Vince Wilfork

I considered almost not writing this but it has to be said, I’m not sure what happens if Big Vince goes down for any period of time. He’s the key to the entire front 7, and where the defensive game plan starts. How well could the Pats get by with Gerard Warren, Kyle Love, Jonthan Fanene and Brandon Deaderick? I shutter even thinking about it. Let’s stop even talking about it.

The “No Expectations” Award: Shane Vereen

We forget Vereen was drafted before Ridley. No one knows exactly how he fits in, though it seems clear he’s fast and can catch. Is he good enough to make Woodhead irrelevant? That remains to be seen, but no other player has more limited expectations that Vereen, which is insane for a second round pick.

The “Super Tough” Award: Logan Mankins

As I’ve said before, if Belichick calls you “super tough” I don’t expect a little ACL tear to prevent you from coming back for the opener. I think Mankins should be out there day one and hopefully it’s not a down year for him because we certainly can’t afford that.

Face value Patriots tickets: The Impossible Dream

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This morning Patriots tickets went on sale on Ticketmaster, and excited Pats fans with multiple browser windows open began their quest to secure face value tickets at 10am EST.

What followed shortly thereafter was a collection of responses like these from Twitter:

Even an informal twitter poll by yours truly failed to turn up one single fan who was able to get tickets this morning. This is nothing new, and there has to be a better way for regular fans to get tickets before they get bought up by the bots and resold at an increased price.

Here’s my proposal: why not go back to the old fashioned way? You know, have actual hard copies of tickets that real human beings can wait in line for and purchase?

The Patriots could even make an event out of it. I know more than a few people willing to drive down to Foxboro in early summer to wait in line with other fans. Put Pats highlights up on the jumbotron, play some music, get Coach Belichick to come out and shake hands, maybe cut some sleeves off (okay maybe that’s a little much). What a great way to get people pumped for the season!

And think of all the business it would drive to the Hall and Patriots Place! That’s money that goes back to the organization and not to ticket brokers like Stub Hub.

At least it would certainly be better to stand and wait with other passionate fans at the stadium than sitting in front of a computer, frantically refreshing multiple browsers only to find yourself screwed by Ticketmaster yet again.

It should not be this hard for average fans to get tickets at face value. Game day experiences are expensive enough without having to deal with all the increases the ticket brokers stick on them.

Ticketmaster is completely broken for sales days like today and it has been for a long time, yet it is still pitched to the fans as a chance to actually get tickets to a game, which rarely happens for anyone who’s not a ticket bot.

If the Pats are serious about getting tough on ticket brokers they should really look into new methods to get their tickets into the hands of their passionate fans who want and deserve them most. Ticketmaster is completely corrupted by online technology, and it’s unfair to continue to act as though getting tickets is as easy as logging on when the sale starts.