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Super Bowl win for Pats in 2012 would cement Brady/Belichick legacy

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A couple of days ago I finally for the first time willingly watched some of Super Bowl XVI. It was the Sound EFX episode, and though I turned it off as soon as Welker didn’t make that catch and watched a lot of it on mute, I once and for all put the 2011 Pats to rest.

Going into the Super Bowl I really saw no way the Pats would lose. Up to that point every game seemed to have its own poetic justice (except that first Giants loss). Brady beat the Jets in New York for the first time since the Spygate, and ended the seasons of both the other teams that had ended his in 2005 and 2009.

Peyton as a Colt vs. Brady was over. And hey, we even let the Steelers finally win one! I knew you had it in you guys! 

Add all that with Myra Kraft’s magical presence over the team and I just didn’t see how we would possibly lose that game. It was just too perfectly all lined up. The Pats would cap off the season by beating who else but the Giants, and avenge the biggest and worst defeat of the Belichick era.

Forget about the Perfect Season, that’s the Perfect Decade.

To be honest it even scared me a little bit in the week leading up to the game. Half the fun of the NFL season is avenging past losses and trying to right wrongs. There would be no one left to beat.

And had the Pats won the Super Bowl my ultimate nightmare could’ve possibly come true. It would seem as good a time as any for Belichick call it a career. And that is something I don’t want.

Well it must’ve been too perfect for the football gods because they decided to tear our heart out on a grand stage yet again, and here I am, left really hating Eli and the Giants a good deal more than I hated them starting in February 2008, and general apathy towards everyone else.

The Jets will always be the Jets of course, and I’ll always respect and enjoy the games against the Ravens and Steelers, but outside the Giants it’s all just slightly less meaningful. 

Still, there should be some great games this season. Getting a shot at the Texans and 49ers should be interesting, and going into Baltimore should be a dog fight. But new rivals must emerge.

Perhaps Buffalo or Houston are ready to give us a run in the AFC, but as things are lining up right now  the Pats should be favorites to secure homefield advantage for the third straight year.

Being a Pats fan has been quite a ride for the past decade. It all seemed easy early on, but lately no professional sports team has fallen just short of championships more than BB and TFB. Yet again the pieces are in place to make a run at another Lombardi which would definitely cement the Brady/Belichick combo as the best of all time.

Another win would tie Brady for most Super Bowl wins with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana, not to mention that he’d stand alone having gone to six. Another MVP would also tie him with Montana with three.

For Belichick another Lombardi would give him a tie for most Super Bowl appearances with Don Shula (who only won two of six), and would tie him with Chuck Knoll for most as a head coach. Overall another win would give Belichick six total Super Bowl rings, putting him second all-time, pretty much undeniably the greatest coach of all time.

And one more shiny silver football for The Hall at Patriots Place would certainly put a different gleam on the two Super Bowl losses to the Giants. I just doubt we’ll ever get another shot at them in the big one.

No matter how it ended, 2011 was a fun ride and there’s plenty of reason to believe the 2012 Patriots can be even better. There might not be a lot of teams who we still owe a pounding to, but there’s still a lot to play for.

Patriots defensive improvement hinges at one position

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Mike Wright was one of the unsung heros of the Patriots defense from 2008 through a good part of 2010 until his concussion problems started. His numbers from that time frame won’t jump off the page at you until 2010, when he put up an impressive 10.7 pass rush rating (via ProFootballFocus.com) through the first eleven games.

Wright never missed a game in that three year span before the concussion in 2010, and provided a reliable and versatile back up to Vince Wilfork, while also supplying the necessary push up the middle of the pocket. Wright’s presence helped covered up what were lean years at linebacker and defensive back due to turnover from the dynasty defense.

Ever since Wright went down the Patriots have struggled to replace him, especially the way he caused havoc on the line of scrimmage. The lack of a real interior rush threat has been a major reason the short passing teams have torn the Pats apart and wracked up historic yardage against them.

How will the Pats bring pressure up the middle this year?

The first option has to be former Bengal Jonathan Fanene, even though even he is not really an interior rush specialist. Myron Pryor might be another option, he fits the exact mold of what New England needs, but he has battled injuries for the past two seasons and still hasn’t been back on the field yet.

Perhaps this is why a lot of reporters from training camp have been mentioning undrafted rookie Justin Francis as a dark horse to make the team for his quickness off the ball.

A little more on Francis….

He seems too slow to be a rush OLB or full time 4-3 DE, and too small to be a full time DT. But he has nice agility (7.05 3-cone), burst (1.6 10 yard split), explosiveness (36" vertical) and long arms (34.5") in addition to his versatility, and a good motor.

Sounds like just the kind of guy who could hold up inside but also get off the ball and get through centers and guards.

I truly believe that the Patriots defensive improvement in 2012 is heavily dependent on finding a defensive lineman who can get interior pressure,  while also spelling Wilfork. It’s stupid to try and run Wilfork into the ground, especially as he gets older. Losing him would be a tough blow to deal with.

It should be an interesting competition to observe in training camp, but someone must emerge and stay healthy if the Pats defensive fortunes are to improve this season.

Pressure up the middle. Preserve Vince. It’s just that simple.

20 things we learned from Patriots OTAs & Mini-Camp

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After pouring over all the reports from mini-camp and OTAs we’ve compiled a list of the things we know now that we didn’t know just a couple months ago. All of this sets us up as we head into the void with a little more Patriots knowledge to chew on for the next six weeks.

  1. Brandon Lloyd is as advertised and should have be an excellent addition to the offense.
  2. Ochocinco was never going to get it.
  3. Tom Brady is just as hungry now, if not moreso than he was earlier in his career.
  4. No one knows for sure what to expect out of Ras-I Dowling.
  5. Alfonzo Dennard is “stumpy” but surprisingly effective and often making plays on the ball.
  6. Sterling Moore continues to show he’s a versatile asset.
  7. There’s a good chance Logan Mankins will be ready to go at the start of the season.
  8. Sebastian Vollmer is still not healthy.
  9. Has anyone seen Ron Brace?
  10. Myron Pryor is still not healthy either.
  11. Jonathan Fanene could play a big role in the heart of the defense next to Vince Wilfork.
  12. It looks like the Pats might go even lighter in their nickel package this year with someone like Ninkovich replacing someone like Shaun Ellis.
  13. Jermain Cunningham had a good off-season, but he got hurt again.
  14. Bobby Carpenter is surprisingly playing a large part in the defense early on.
  15. Stevan Ridley knows he has to work on the fumbles.
  16. Shane Vereen is getting a lot of  passing situation reps and looks fast.
  17. Tavon Wilson can play some nickel linebacker.
  18. Aaron Hernandez is likely the only healthy tight end who will still be on the roster come opening day.
  19. Markell Carter wasn’t as good as we hoped he might be.
  20. Marcus Cannon might be more valuable that anyone realizes.

Top 3 improvements of the Patriots off-season

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It’s hard to believe that training camp for the 2012 season opens in just six weeks. I haven’t even taken a voluntary look at any of the Super Bowl yet! Through free agency, the draft and now OTA’s the Patriots have made some positive moves that should pay dividends in the fall and winter.

As we close the book on another Pats off-season and enter the longest and worst football void of the year let’s take a look at the top 3 improvements the Patriots have made since the disappointment in Indy.

1. Defensive Versatility and Depth: By the end of last season injuries began to catch up with the Pats. That’s not something you can plan for but this year the Patriots re-stocked their defense with a number of versatile defenders who can do multiple things.

Free agents like Will Allen, Steve Gregory and Trevor Scott all have experience in multiple roles, as do rookies Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Tavon Wilson. What we’re left with is a defense that should be more “amoeba”-like than ever. This should give the Patriots the ability to keep offenses guessing, and constantly shift players into spots where they can be successful. The defense had to improve this off-season and there’s little doubt that they should be better despite losing 10-sack guy Mark Anderson.

2. Outside Wide Receiver Threats: Brandon Lloyd was the slam dunk move everyone expected the Pats to make, but what they didn’t expect was a 2007 receiver reunion outside of Randy Moss. Along with Lloyd the Patriots added Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth, all of whom are well-versed in Josh McDaniels offensive system. With Deion Branch and Wes Welker also back, the Patriots should have a fierce competition at the position in training camp. Ultimately New England will challenge defenses outside the numbers in a way they were unable to in 2011. This should not only open things up for Wes Welker, but also make the match-up nightmares with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez even harder to deal with.

3. Shifting Offensive Backfield: While Joseph Addai could be a significant contributor the opportunity is there for second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen to become important parts of the offense. Danny Woodhead also should be a significant part. The Pats were content to let solid, if unspectacular Benjarvus Green-Ellis leave for the Bengals, replacing him with the lower priced Addai.

One of the less heralded moves of the off-season was the focus on finding fullbacks. Both Tony Fiametta and Spencer Larson were acquired, giving the Pats their first true fullbacks since Heath Evans in 2008. Just what the Pats are thinking with these fullbacks remains to be seen, but it’s another new twist on an offense that was already incredibly versatile.

Putting the Patriots defense in any kind of box is futile

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As Pats bloggers and pundits try to pull water from the rock that is the draft-training camp void you’ll find a lot of tire spinning over the Patriots defense.

Will Devin McCourty be at cornerback or safety? Is Steve Gregory the answer at starting safety? Will the Patriots run a 3-4 or 4-3 base defense?

Well we’ve hit the point where trying speculate anything about the Patriots defense is pointless, not only now in the dog days of the off-season, but even once we get to season itself.

Why? Because this is a Patriots defense that was built to do any and everything. McCourty will likely see time at cornerback AND safety. Gregory will be part of a safety rotation regardless.

And the 3-4 or 4-3 debate is now completely moot in terms of base defense. Nickel is the new base. The four defensive back packages  are now used when the Pats want to stop the run first and foremost. Those games will be in the minority, and if the Pats jump out to a lead it’s likely the opponent will abandon the run anyway.

The things that do matter are who wins the position battles and makes the roster. After that it’s pointless to speculate who will be playing where. It will not only change game to game, but play to play.

This is not by accident. In the modern NFL the offense has so many advantages that a defense can take some of that away by constantly morphing where their personnel line up and what their responsibilities are.

Take this video of Mangini talking about what they tried to do with Brady by not giving him pre-snap information. This is now what the Patriots are trying to do to every QB they face.

Patriots have a second dynasty defense in the making

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The biggest focus of my last five years of blogging about the Patriots has been Bill Belichick’s chance to rebuild his defense from scratch and with total authority. While Belichick deserves a great deal of credit for the Patriots defenses that won three Super Bowls, ultimately those defenses were not hand picked by him.

Sure, he took the draftees of the previous regime like Bruschi, McGinest and Milloy, along with a collection of castoffs from other teams like Vrabel, Phifer and Harrison, and put them in positions to succeed, but those years just proved his coaching genius. Those players were not going to play forever, and now Belichick has a chance to prove his scouting and development genius.

It’s rare that a coach has the kind of control and vision that he gets to construct a defense from scratch, but that’s exactly what Belichick began doing in 2008 with the selection of Jerod Mayo.

Thus, one of my most favorite times of year is the draft, especially when Belichick takes defensive players. So you can imagine my excitement after this year’s haul, and in fact it’s taken a few days for it all to actually sink in. It’s safe to say it left me speechless. Until now.

The Patriots struggles with pass defense over the past few seasons are well documented. It’s ironic that on the offensive side of the ball they were one of the teams leading the charge for the new pass-dominated NFL, but on the defensive side of the ball they’ve been continually lit up through the air.

I’ve often joked that I can’t imagine what it has looked like when Tom Brady went up against the Pats defense in practice, but quite frankly it was frustrating. Belichick knows football evolution, and usually he’s ahead of the curve, but on defense they just couldn’t seem to solve the problems that have haunted them for the last two seasons.

We can talk about how they still won a lot of games and didn’t allow a lot of points despite giving up a lot of yards and third down conversions, but the simple truth is this: The Patriots have not had a dominant defense since the dynasty years. They didn’t have a defense that could take over games. They didn’t have a defense that made quarterbacks uncomfortable. They made some big plays at times, got some key stops at times, but consistently week in and week out they were at best an average defense that needed more talent, specifically more game breakers in their front seven especially.

In that regard the 2012 draft was the one we were all waiting for. At least on paper. The Patriots traded up to take two front seven players and spent three more picks on defensive backs, leaving just a single offensive selection with their last pick.

As we’ve been saying this whole off-season the great 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate is moot. The nickel defense is the new base. If you cannot pressure the quarterback with four rushers in today’s NFL you are going to get torched. If you have trouble stopping the run well…you’ll probably still be able to outscore them so who cares. Pondering the 3-4 vs. 4-3 is like pondering what their goal line defense will look like. It really doesn’t matter.

This Patriots draft could be best summed up as “Defensive Diversity”. Every player they selected specifically for their defense can do a number of things, meaning the days of over-specialization are done. Remember 2010 where there would be whole-sale substitutions on defense whether they were playing pass or run? There will be no more of that.

First and foremost this will be a defense with a number of new players who can get after the passer, but also with enough athleticism to play in space, in zone or man-to-man, or anything else that Belichick wants to do to exploit an offense. It also means that opposing quarterbacks are going to have a lot harder time deciphering pre-snap what the Patriots defensive intentions are.

It’s impossible to predict how everything will flush out in training camp this summer. And even then we’ll still have no idea who will be where on a week to week basis. But there’s reason to be excited that the Pats not only replaced the 20 sacks they lost with Mark Anderson’s departure and Andre Carter’s uncertain future in the short term, but that they have diverse pass rush and coverage solutions lined up for the long term.

The Patriots have gotten off the “one year and done” cycle with pass rushers. They now have quite a few edge players that they can develop and nurture within the system, who also aren’t restricted to being one-trick ponies.

I’ve always had a long term view on the defensive rebuild. While it was somewhat of a surprise to get back to the Super Bowl in 2011, I think the real story to be told is how the major elements are in place for this to be a dominant defense until 2020.

And one day I think we’ll look back and see the 2012 draft as the one that was the final major piece in the second Patriots dynasty defense.