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Pats-Jets Preview Q & A with Turn on the Jets

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In what is becoming a yearly tradition, we’re excited to do another Q & A with the fantastic Jets blog Turn on the Jets’ Editor-in-Chief Joe Caporoso. You won’t find better insight on the Jets anywhere else. 

First, I pick Joe’s brain on the Jets…

Mike D.: We saw Pettine’s Bills defense give the Patriots offense problems and his experience with the Jets clearly gave him an advantage. Rex knows how to play Brady, and how to mix man and zone coverage to make him hold the ball that extra second. Who are the new and returning impact players in the front seven that will be coming after Brady?
Joe Caporoso: The Jets have assembled one of the best young defensive lines in football. Muhammad WIlkerson is an elite 3-4 defensive end and rookie Sheldon Richardson looked terrific in his debut, showing athleticism and versatility. They are missing Quinton Coples as a presence off the edge but newcomer Antwan Barnes has added some juice there. A pleasant surprise has been the emergence of second year player Damon Harrison at nose tackle, who looked like a strong compliment to Wilkerson and Richardson in week one. The Jets still lack overall speed at linebacker but they generate pressure up the middle with their defensive line. 
MD: What were you most surprised and disappointed with in the regular season debut against the Bucs?
JC: Surprised? I’d say Geno Smith. He exceeded my expectations by improving dramatically in the second half and playing with an encouraging amount of confidence and intelligence. Smith is going to have to rookie growing pains and will make his mistakes but he is going to make his share of plays as well. Disappointed? Chris Ivory and the running game, which struggled all pre-season and was very weak in week 1. The Jets need a consistent running game to support Smith and we’ve seen no signs of it yet.  
MD: Brady and the Pats have lost to a Jets rookie in Week 2 before. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Geno Smith’s game, and how do you expect the Jets to play to his strengths?
JC: Strengths – Very good arm strength, a good feel when to take off and run and a natural in the screen/short passing game. Weaknesses – He still locks on to his primary receiver too frequently and is prone to turnovers. He is going to struggle with more exotic coverages as of right now .Marty Mornhinweg has played to his strengths by keeping him in the shotgun and allowing him to throw plenty of screens, which he did all the time at WVU. 
MD: We saw quite a few Wildcats from the Jets against the Bucs, but we all know the way to beat the Pats defense of late has been through the air. Does it look like the Wildcat will be a permanent fixture this year?
JC: Unfortunately, yes. The formation has been figured out by the NFL and provided really nothing throughout the pre-season and in week one. I understand the Jets trying to get creative to boost their running game but Bilal Powell isn’t the type of back who is going to rip off big plays, particularly out of that formation. Mornhinweg also had some shaky play-calls using the Wildcat last week, including a foolish third down boot pass by Jeremy Kerley. I’m sure we will see some Wildcat on Thursday, hopefully not too much though. 
MD: Who are your biggest X factors for the Jets to pull off their first win in Foxboro since the 2010 AFC Divisional Game (hold on while I go dry heave for a second remembering Braylon Edwards’ backflips)…
JC: If the Jets are going to win, which I’d consider a major upset, it will be because Rex Ryan draws up a scheme that beats up and flusters New England’s inexperienced targets. The loss of Amendola and Vereen is a big deal because both of those guys would have been nightmare match-ups for the Jets defense, so maybe the Jets keep New England in the 17-21 point range and then get their running game going, which allows Smith to hit a few big plays down the field against a somewhat shaky Pats secondary. Smith is the true X-Factor, if he plays well on a short week, against Belichick, in a hostile environment it will be a VERY encouraging sign.
And now Joe picks my brain about the Pats…
JC: What exactly happened in week 1 that allowed a young and inexperienced Buffalo team to nearly pull off the upset against New England? Were you concerned by the overall performance?

MD: To be honest it was kind of what I expected, as it was reminiscent of both the 2006 and 2009 openers against them. Sloppy games marred by turnovers and penalties. That said, the Patriots’ rookie receiver Kenbrell Thompkins, who shined all summer, looked very much like the undrafted rookie that he is. Really, when you consider the Pats put up 450 yards of offense, and had Stevan Ridley’s fumble not been returned for a touchdown or had the Pats gotten in the end zone on 4th and 1 instead of fumbling the snap, this one could’ve been a blowout for New England. The offense certainly looked disjointed at times, but considering the turnover it’s not all that surprising. They’ll continue to be inconsistent early in the season, but the hope is that by throwing the young weapons in the fire early, it will pay dividends in the winter. All the young weapons flashed at points during the preseason, once they put it all together they’ll be dangerous.
JC: Who is going to fill the void of Vereen and Amendola in the Patriots offense Thursday? Which lesser known player should Jets fans be worried about torching our defense?
MD: It starts with Julian Edelman, who likely will play every offensive snap, and Kenbrell Thompkins bouncing back. Thompkins was remarkably consistent all summer and had great chemistry with Brady before looking off against the Bills. It looks like 2nd-round pick Aaron Dobson should play this week as well, and fellow rookie Josh Boyce should see some snaps as well.
As for Vereen it could be your old friend Leon Washington. He was just re-signed late last week after spending all of camp with the Pats, but has been battling a thigh injury. Stevan Ridley, who was benched after fumbling against the Bills, figures to get a shot at redemption and LeGarrette Blount, who looked slow against the Bills, should get some carries as well. It’s notable if Washington doesn’t play that neither Ridley nor Blount are very good catching the ball. That could really take an element of the Pats offense away. They also don’t have a tight end receiving threat, especially if rookie Zach Sudfeld, who is battling a hamstring problem, can’t go.
JC: What is your overall feeling on the Patriots defense? Are the concerns about their secondary being overblown?
MD: For the first time since 2007 the Pats returned nearly their whole defense, including their full secondary. I like the continuity and they looked fast against the Bills, not giving up a 20+ passing play for the first game since 2009. The Pats played very vanilla defense against the Bills and were in nickel nearly the whole time. Overall I think they have the chance to be the best secondary we’ve seen since the late 00’s, as all three starting corners (Talib, Dennard, Arrington) are pretty good playing man-to-man. The Pats have lacked that ability since the Ty Law days.
JC: How big of an advantage do you think New England has on the short week and with homefield advantage? We saw veteran QB and HC combos thrive on TNF last season. 
MD: I think familiarity erases a big chunk of any advantage they might have, though New England’s experience on defense might give them a little bit of an edge. But I also think the inexperience at receiver against the Jets defense, which does such a great job disguising blitzes, will really give the Jets an advantage with their blitzes. They’d be smart to force New England’s rookies to decipher where the blitzes are coming from and where the hot zones will be. Regardless of the short week it’s always hard to beat the Pats in New England, Geno Smith will have to do his best impression of Mark Sanchez in the 2010 AFC Divisional Game.
JC: Do you agree with me that Belichick has a ton of love and respect for Rex Ryan and would be one of the people who’d consider hiring him if he gets fired after this season?  
MD: I do, and I also have a ton of love and respect for Rex. I’ve always said I think he’s the perfect ying to Belichick’s yang in the rivalry. Belichick respects pure football coaches and that is what Rex is. His defenses are aggressive and well-prepared, and I think more than anything, Belichick respects any coach who can consistently come up with ways to give him problems. I think there are a ton of teams who should be chomping at the bit to have Rex as their defensive coordinator, but most interesting to me is how different Belichick and Rex’s style of defense are. Both work, but Belichick is more conservative and prefers to play sound coverage and force mistakes. This can be maddening to watch and drives Pats fans up a wall until the opponent throws an untimely interception. The problem as been when teams don’t make that killer mistake as we’ve seen in each of their recent playoff losses. I enjoy Rex’s attacking style that’s loaded with deception, and it’s clear he knows how to give Brady problems every time they play.

Patriots’ injury issues mean defense must step up

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This offseason I had two mantras to the 2013 Patriots:

1. There would be growing pains with the offensive turnover, but in the long run they would be better set up, both short and long-term, to be more explosive and unpredictable.

2. It was time for the defense to go from one that just didn’t lose games, to a defense that wins games.

Now here we are in week two, and these two things are truer than ever, yet because the offense didn’t look unstoppable many are ready to hit the panic button.

There’s no question, losing Vereen and possibly Amendola hurts, but both should be fine in the long run. So let’s look at this game for what it is, an excellent challenge against a divisional opponent who always plays us tough early in the season.

What we saw from the Pats offense is exactly what was expected. Inconsistency, and, gasp, an undrafted rookie actually playing like an undrafted rookie in Kenbrell Thompkins.

But let’s look at the positive. Julian Edelman played arguably his best game as a pro. If the preseason was any indication, Thompkins should bounce back, and Aaron Dobson said this morning he’s expecting to play.

Are they the 2007 Pats offense right now? No. But come on, it’s not like we need to hang 50 on the Jets to get the win.

So that makes me turn the page to the defense. This game is all about them as I see it. This is their chance to prove they can control games.

They’ve got a rookie quarterback, making his first road start and likely missing a significant weapon of his own in Jeremy Kerley coming into town. My expectation is for the defense to be the difference and shut Geno Smith completely down.

Let’s remember what happened in week two last year. The Pats lost to the Cardinals when they had Welker, Gronk, Lloyd, and Branch. The first couple weeks of the season are always flukey.

I think that Brady with Ridley (yes, Ridley), Edelman, Thompkins, Boyce, Dobson and whoever else they throw in there are good enough to put more points on the board than Geno Smith and the Jets offense IF the Patriots defense comes to play like an experienced veteran defense loaded with high-round draft picks should play in this situation.

For the offense, this will be nothing but a positive learning experience whether they win or lose. The young receivers will be thrown into the fire against a Jets defense that knows how to give Brady problems. 

For the defense, it’s time to live up to what we talked about all offseason.

Patriots vs. Bills: Takeaways from New England’s 23-21 Win over Buffalo

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Patriots vs. Bills: Takeaways from New England’s 23-21 Win over Buffalo

Here are my takeaways from the game, including how impressed I was with Amendola’s toughness and ability to make tough catches in crunch time.

Amendola recorded a whopping seven catches on third down that converted for the first downs, including two huge ones on the game-winning drive. He finished the day with 10 catches for 104 yards. That right, seven of his ten catches were on third down, accounting for seven of the Pats’ 11 total conversions on the day.

Amendola might be nursing his groin injury for a while, but there’s no question how tough he is as a player and his willingness to go after the tough catches in the key moments of the game. That’s something the Patriots lacked the last few seasons.

5 Surprises of the Patriots roster

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While the moves at the bottom of the roster continue (bye James Develin), it’s time to take a look at some of the biggest surprises at the top of the roster.

5. Brandon Bolden sticks.

I’m glad, I’ve always liked how he’s run and he’s actually better at catching the ball than Ridley is. I’m excited to see if he can return to the form he had in early 2012.

4. The Pats kept 7 linemen, and are still auditioning rookies at the backup spots, now having two that were not even with the team in camp.

Svitek and Cannon are the only back-ups so any kind of injury, especially on the interior, will cause a lot of juggling. The Pats need Dan Connolly to have a good and healthy season.

3. Undrafted Joe Vellano and new guy AJ Francis are the top two backup defensive linemen. 

This is a bit scary. I liked what I saw out of Vellano in spurts of the preseason. He’s undersized but uses it to his strength when anchoring. There were also plenty of times he ended up on his back. I’m still not sure how much he or his college teammate will see the field. 

2. Jake Bequette and Michael Buchanan are the top two backup defensive ends.

I’m both a little surprised and a little excited. Both should see a lot of snaps and it will be interesting to track their ups and downs. Who’s the first one in for Nink or Chandler? Is it the same one who comes on in the pure pass rush packages? These will be some of the most interesting things to see vs. the Bills.

1. Ryan Allen beat out Zoltan Mesko. 

Like most of us, who’s focusing on the punter battle, aside from maybe Bedard. Cheaper and maybe a higher ceiling put Allen over the edge.

Final Patriots Preseason Thoughts

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Let’s start with the good news – the Pats made it through a training camp and preseason without a major injury! That in and of itself is a reason to feel good, eventhough there was a tense six hours when Brady had his knee scare.

Tomorrow comes the cutdown to 53, but here are some thoughts on the last preseason game and who is trending up and who is trending out.

– Aaron Dobson was up and down last night, but I think he needs time. He’s still a raw player and needs to learn how to play the pro game. The biggest thing is learning to use his strengths (height) to his advantage. He’ll need to progress over the course of the season.

– I’ve been hard on Ryan Mallett but he showed some pretty good stuff last night. Don’t know if he did enough to entice a team to go after him in a trade next offseason, but I feel well enough that he wouldn’t be a total disaster if he had to fill in for TFB at all.

– Kenbrell Thompkins is good at football. I’m excited to see what he does with Brady and the impact he makes, which should be immediate. Reminds me of Deion Branch with his secure hands and ability to win at the line with quickness.

– Leon Washington played a lot last night, and had a fumble. Kind of surprised he was even on the bubble to begin with, but still think he makes it.

– Jake Bequette and Michael Buchanan both played well last night, and the timing couldn’t have been better. Something tells me both could make the team, and with Jermaine Cunningham missing yet again, I think his time in New England might be over.

– Logan Ryan will play a lot next week and I’m sure he’ll be targeted and have his share of mistakes. But I like him as a player, he’s physical and has improved consistently over the course of camp.

– Duron Harmon seems pretty solid to me as well. Definitely has had his lapses, but overall, like his Rutgers mate Ryan, he’s a solid player. I’ll be looking for him to improve as the season goes along and perhaps push Steve Gregory at some point for safety snaps.

– Thursday morning I was leaning toward Adrian Wilson making the team. This morning I’m leaning toward him not making it.