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Patriots musings at the start of Dolphins week

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Big game this weekend for the Pats, with a divisional win over the Dolphins they’ll maintaing at least a one game lead over the Jets. Jets are playing the Bengals, that should be a good one.

Taking a look at the point spread on NFL action this weekend and the Pats are favored by seven. Sounds about right. I think this matchup with the Dolphins, a team many though might overtake the Pats this year, is coming at the perfect time. It’s a division game so there won’t be many surprises, but the Pats also know how important these games are, so they’ll be no lack of focus.

I liked what I saw out of Jamie Collins getting a chance to rush the QB a bit against the Jets. Belichick seemed to like it as well, saying today: 

“We know he’s athletic, but I thought other parts of his game showed up. I thought he played hard and made some plays, played aggressively and played with good power. He’s getting better every week.” 

Collins could be a real wild card in the second half of the season.

Really like the Andre Carter signing. He should bring some good calm leadership to the defense. Not sure how much he has left but he did have 3 sacks last year with the Raiders and was generally solid against the run (2.4 rating from PFF). He’ll ease the burden on NInkovich and Chandler a bit, and help out on passing downs especially. He was a beast in 2012 and really, losing him to injury might’ve cost the Pats the Super Bowl.

Sounds like Vereen is close to practicing and Amendola was out at practice today. If these two can get back in lineup (and stay in the lineup) the Pats offense is going to have a completely different complexion in just a couple weeks. 

I feel the same way about Armond Armstead and Tommy Kelly. Their impact on the defense will have a hugely positive trickle down effect. Not to mention that Joe Vellano and Chris Jones have played far better than I ever thought either would. Both could stick in Foxboro for a long time. Jones is already getting me hot and bothered with some of his timely interior rushes. If only Wilfork and Kelly had stayed healthy, the Pats might’ve never been in the position of need to pick Chris Jones up, but I think he’s quickly becoming a building block for the defense.

Pats must win at least one of these last two before the bye. If they win both they will be in great position, but neither will be easy games.

The Morning After: Thoughts on a Pats loss to the Jets

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Took a bit of a break from the internets after the loss yesterday. Not because I found it all that distressing, but because I knew the Chris Jones penalty would be argued and lamented non-stop. It happened. I’m not going to get into what was or wasn’t called or what the rule book did or didn’t say. We’ve had plenty of good calls and bad calls go our way over the years. 

The Jets were the better team yesterday. Barely. So hats off to them, in my eyes they won the game by being better on both sides of the ball on third down and totally overmatching the Patriots offense for their first three possessions of the second half. That was frighteningly similar to the 2009 and 2010 losses.

Did the Pats find enough in the tank at the end to make it interesting? Sure. They always seem to, and even when they’re as shorthanded as we’ve ever seen them and not playing their best game in a hostile environment, it still took until overtime to put them away by a (controversial) field goal.

Let’s keep some perspective. The AFC is wide open this year. Look at all the devastating injuries around the league that happened yesterday. Reggie Wayne. Brian Cushing. Doug Martin. Every team is dealing with that and it’s going to level the playing field even more.

So the Pats aren’t going to waltz off with another division title by late October. Does anyone really think the Pats have been good enough that they should be 2-3 games up in the division? I don’t. And they’re still in pretty good position.

So what did we learn yesterday? Gronk is back, but isn’t an instant fix. The Pats need Amendola and Vereen back because they’re still struggling to find any consistency moving the ball.

But there were glimmers of hope yesterday, and let’s remember that’s a Jets defense that is playing very well right now. It’s not often you can point to one area to fix coming out of a loss, but third down is that one area as I see it.

The middle of the offensive line needs to be better. Brady can’t get too locked into Gronk. And the defense need to re-establish a new identity without Mayo and Wilfork. Getting Tommy Kelly back and adding Armond Armstead could be just the boost they need. Vellano and Smith have been better than I thought they might be.

Otherwise, it was a hard-fought game and I look forward to pouring back over it to see exactly what the Pats were doing on defense and just what went wrong on all the third downs.

The 2013 season very well could be a dogfight down to the end, and those can be enjoyable. This great “re-healthening” has begun. Let’s hold on for two more weeks, get to the bye and see where we’re at then.

A Pats-Jets Q & A with Joe Caporoso of TurnontheJets.com

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As has become tradition, each Pats-Jets week we do an email back-and-forth with Joe Caporoso of TurnontheJets.com. You won’t find a better football blog or more knowledgeable writer than Joe and it’s always insightful when we pick his brain.
First up, Joe’s questions to me, Mike D about the Pats….
How have New England’s rookie wide receivers been coming along since their struggles in week 2 against the Jets?
There’s no other way to describe them than up and down. Dobson had his best game of the season against the Saints, leading the team with six catches for 63 yards. Still, he had an offensive pass interference and a couple drops, including a really bad one on fourth down late in the game that probably should’ve meant a loss for the Pats.
Thompkins has had 21 catches and four touchdowns on the season, but last week was the first time he’s played less than Dobson. Obviously the game-winning touchdown stands out from last week, but there was also one catch where he basically just fell down after making the catch. 
Both have had their moments, but it hasn’t been a clear “each week they’re better” progression. Really, they’re inconsistent from snap-to-snap, much less game-to-game. Still, the Pats continue to put them out there and the good plays are starting to outnumber the bad ones, but each snap is an adventure and I think that will continue vs. the Jets.
How do you expect the front seven to hold up without Wilfork and Mayo? Who will New England be looking to step up in their void?
Let’s throw Tommy Kelly in there too because it doesn’t look like he’ll suit up this week if his absence from Wednesday’s practice is any indicator. So now you’ve got two undrafted rookies in Joe Vellano and Chris Jones playing defensive tackle. They held up okay against the Saints, but the problem is holding up against the run, especially late in the game. Both seemed to lose some steam at the end of last week’s game.
Now you take Mayo out of the equation, your defensive captain who plays every down, and it’s impossible to not think the defense will be affected negatively. Replacing Mayo will be a group effort with some combination of Dont’a Hightower, Dane Fletcher and rookie Jamie Collins filling in. None of them are as versatile as Mayo, so there’s no simple fix.
But here’s the thing…the Pats pass defense with Mayo and Wilfork has been pretty bad the last three seasons. And Vellano and Jones are actually more suited to penetrate than Wilfork necessarily was. Mayo was good, not great in pass coverage, so I don’t think we’ll see a huge pass defense drop off. Of course they could be without Aqib Talib as well and that would be probably the biggest blow of all.
Do you think New England is going to run away with this division yet again? Who do you think is the biggest threat?
I guess we’ll find out in the next two weeks as the Pats play the Jets and Dolphins back-to-back.  On one hand you look at the injuries and inexperience and it’s hard to say they’ll run away with the division. But on the other hand they’ve been winning games without playing their best football and without their best offensive players. That’s usually a sign of a good team headed for the playoffs. Only time will tell how well they’re able to overcome the injuries and how soon they can get back up to full strength. But I think one thing that’s definitely true is that regardless of personnel, this is another Belichick Patriots team that will fight down to the end and play sound, tough football. At a certain point the lack of talent at key spots will likely catch up with them, but it’s hard to imagine them having a total meltdown and falling into what some might call a “rebuilding year”.
Is Rob Gronkowski going to play this season? If so, when? 
I’ve just about given up speculating and everything seemed to reach a fever pitch last weekend with all the back-and-forth about Gronk and the team putting the decision in Dr. James Andrews’ hands and he determined Gronk was not ready. Now there are reports he’ll be back this week, but it’s hard to take those as fact after all we’ve heard in the last three weeks. I just don’t see how one week makes that much of a difference if Dr. Andrews thought he wasn’t ready last weekend.
Even when he does return, I think we’ll all be on pins and needles that he’ll break it again. There are plenty of people out there suggesting the Pats just IR him and let him get fully healthy for the first time since halftime of the 2011 AFC Championship. Still, reports are that he’s practicing like a beast, so that’s the only glimmer of light.
When he does return there will be much rejoicing, and much trepidation.
And now, Joe answers our questions about the Jets.
What have the Jets done since their ugly loss in Week 2 to the Patriots? 
They’ve been a roller coaster. The following week they had a monster offensive showing in a win over Buffalo. Geno is rookie of the year! Then after that, they were blown out by Tennessee thanks to four ugly turnovers. Bench Geno, Start Simms! Then they upset Atlanta on Monday night in thrilling fashion. Geno is the future! And then finally last week, they scored 6 points at home against the 0-4 Steelers and lost. We need to draft quarterback next year! 
What did you take most from that game that can be used in the rematch?
The Jets should run the football more frequently against New England’s front seven, particularly now with Wilfork and Mayo out. Chris Ivory had some success in the week 2 match-up but they went away from him too much in the second half. I’d like to see both Ivory and Bilal Powell in the 15-20 carry range this Sunday, to help keep Brady off the field and protect Geno from turnovers.
Which players have emerged in the last four weeks and will play a key role on Sunday?
Darrin Walls has moved into the starting line-up at corner and has been gradually improving. Stephen Hill has also been gradually improving since his ugly week 2 game against the Patriots. With Santonio Holmes and Kellen Winslow Jr out, he could be the team’s primary target in the passing game along with Jeremy Kerley, who didn’;t play in the previous game but has played well against New England in the past.
The Patriots could be without Aqib Talib, Jerod Mayo, Danny Amendola and Dan Connolly, all of whom left Sunday’s game vs. the Saints and did not return, but Gronk might be back (we’ve said that before). Is it now or never for this Jets team if they want to be a contender this season?

I do think this is a pivotal game in their season, similar to last year when they were 3-3, choked away a game in New England they should’ve won and then basically went into a tailspin. If the Jets have any desires of competing for the AFC  East or a wild-card spot, they are going to have to win a game like this. They are currently only 1-3 in the AFC and 1-1 in the division.