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Notes on the Patriots-Bengals Re-Watch

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Had a chance to take a quick look back at the game this morning and it was about what I expected. Came away even more impressed with the Bengals front. Couple them with a flat Patriots offense and the result fits.

Here are my notes, though they speak more to the big picture…

– Gotten a lot of messages from people ready to give up on the receivers, but I think that’s a decision for after the season. No question it was ugly, and though Amendola was back, he joined in on the drop parade. What I don’t like most is just that both Dobson and Thompkins continue to not catch the ball with their hands, often double-catching it or letting it hit their chest. This is something both of them really have to work on.

– If you told me we’d have to go to Cinci without Wilfork, Ridley, Vereen, Gronk and a rusty Amendola this summer I probably would’ve thought a 13-6 loss would’ve been too optimistic.

– The Pats always have a stinker early in the season. Most NFL teams do. And the stupid thing is to fly off the handle and give up. The Giants shutdown the Pats even when they had Moss and Welker with the same kind of play we saw from the Bengals yesterday. That’s what it looks like when the Pats lose, but in the long run, when the Pats get healthy, they should be better prepared to deal with games like that. Vereen would’ve been especially useful.

– I know everyone has fallen in love with being universally praised, always being in the top 5 of power rankings, and at least a couple times per game shredding a defense, but the Patriots are no longer that team. And really, how often does that team win the Super Bowl? Most had the Ravens dead and buried last year. The Giants were 9-7 in 2011. I’m not really interested in going 16-0 every year now. What interests me is using the regular season to build a resilient team who has faced a variety of challenges.

– Here are two facts: The Patriots offense will only get better this season. The Patriots defense is the best we’ve seen in years and even got by okay without Vince Wilfork. If you don’t think that could possibly be a good combination for a playoff run then you’re not paying attention. I’m not saying run over to Betfair and put money on the Pats running the table, but this team still has the mark of don’t-get-blown-out Patriots of old.

– And really, there’s not that much wrong with losing a few games. It wouldn’t hurt to get up in to the teens in the draft to get a shot at a good defensive tackle, or possibly an elite wide receiver. Not at the expense of making the playoffs of course, but consistently drafting in the low-20s makes things harder.

– This second quarter of the season will be the toughest one of the year i think. The key? Beating the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 7 and 8. That would put a steel grasp on the division and get them almost to the Week 10 after which I expect we’ll have most everyone back.

Some game-specific notes…

– For me the play of the game was the 3rd and long conversion by the Bengals from their own two yard line. That kickstarted the only touchdown drive of the day. It still took a fourth-down attempt by the Bengals to get that touchdown. This defense might give up plays, but they have a short memory and make you earn every single yard.

– The Pats’ short-yardage offense is concerning to me, Blount just can’t seem to plow for those critical 1-2 yards. Need Ridley back for those. Or even give Bolden a shot.

– I give up on Leon Washington. He finally started as the kickoff returner, something I’ve been waiting all year for, then promptly leaves the game with an ankle injury. 

– Brandon Spikes proved his value yesterday. He won’t get a new contract in-season, but I think he’s worth giving another deal to. He’s an impact player. Period.

– Credit to Mayo for balling out yesterday too. Best I’ve seen him play this year. Hope it continues.

– Praying Tommy Kelly is at practice Wednesday. I just don’t know how they’d get by without him.

– No question Brady missed some open guys yesterday and had that bad old look he usually gets in games when he’s “seeing ghosts”. The lack of reliable receivers only exacerbated it. Outside of Dobson’s long gain I didn’t see very mean times where the ball came out in rhythm, was caught cleanly, and the receiver turned up field to collect some YAC.

– What a test the Saints will be. We’ll get a true sense of what this defense is without Wilfork (and maybe Kelly, eeek), and the offense will have to show they can put some points up. Gronk and Ridley back would be a huge boost. The whole team should play with something to prove.

Thoughts on the Pats losing Vince Wilfork

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I’ve been letting it sink in all morning that Vince Wilfork is likely done for the season after tearing his achilles. In some ways losing Wilfork like this almost felt inevitable. One of the big themes I hit on all offseason was bringing in more defensive tackle help to ease the burden on big Vince.

Let’s look at the percentages of snaps Wilfork has played over the last four seasons:

2009: 51.8 percent 
2010: 69.8 percent 
2011: 86.8 percent 
2012: 81.3 percent 

That’s a lot of wear and tear on a man of his size, and it’s hard not to wonder if all that playing time finally caught up with him. It was clear that Wilfork was already playing with some kind of injury this year and that diminished his effectiveness. How much that had to do with this final achilles year is hard to say right now.

So where do the Pats go from here? There’s no question of Wilfork’s value to the defense and his ability to dominate the interior of the line. The lack of depth at defensive tackle has also been well discussed.

Tommy Kelly becomes the main guy inside, which I feel a lot better about than I would’ve had it been Kyle Love or Brandon Deaderick last year. Joe Vellano has held up pretty well inside, and it seems likely that Marcus Forston will get the call up from the practice squad. Rookie Chris Jones could contribute as well.

I don’t necessarily think the Pats are immediately looking to the free agent market to find someone to replace Wilfork. I especially doubt Love or Richard Seymour will be back (as much as I’d love to see Big Sey back). The Pats are usually about “next man up” and that’s probably the approach they’ll take.

But let’s look at it this way, for the past three seasons we’ve had a defense with an elite defensive tackle and a sub-par secondary, and the result was a defense that was routinely lit up through the air.

So now perhaps we’re looking at a defense with average-at-best defensive tackles, but a possibly elite secondary. Hopefully that can ease the loss of Wilfork and really, it does little to hurt the Pats’ effectiveness against the pass, all things considered.

I’ve long wanted Wilfork’s passing down snaps reduced, and I think Vellano, Jones, and eventually Armond Armstead can do just fine replacing him, and likely improving the level of pass rush.

The problem will be against the running teams when the Pats can’t take away the opposition’s favorite run hole with Wilfork. This will put some more focus on Brandon Spikes in games like those, where his job to shut down the run game will be even tougher.

Another huge problem area could be on runs against the Pats’ sub-defense. Wilfork might not have been an elite pass rusher, but his presence in the sub-defense certainly discouraged offense’s ability to run on them.

I’m not sure if we’ll ever see big Vince get back to the level he was at the last few seasons. This could be a tough injury to overcome and could signal the beginning of the end of his time in New England.

There’s no question he will be missed on and off the field, but the Pats have built up enough talent on their defense that it is not the same kind of devastating blow it would’ve been from 2010-2012.

It’s early enough in the season, they’ll just have to overcome.

Notes on a quiet domination: Pats efficiently take out Bucs

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Had a chance to briefly look back at the game this morning and there weren’t too many new things that stuck out to me. Looking forward to taking a closer look at the defense once the all-22 comes out, seems like they amped up the complexity this week a bit. Otherwise, here’s what’s on my mind this morning.

  1. There’s no question I really like what this defense has done in three weeks, and really, it’s just living up to expectations. They’ve been torched by so many sub-par QBs in recent years, it shouldn’t be understated that despite the lack of strong opposition, they’re getting it done now. Bigger tests are coming, but this group should have some confidence.
  2. Nice to see some of the rookies getting worked in on defense as well, with Jamie Collins starting to see the field in pass defense sub-packages. From the early snaps I saw, he was solely covering the middle of the field, a place the Pats have struggled in recent years.
  3. Have to take a closer look at Kyle Arrington, but it certainly seems like he got benched in this one, giving Logan Ryan some quality snaps in his place. 
  4. Brandon Spikes was back and it seems clear he was not himself the first two games. He was once again blowing up oncoming blockers and making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Didn’t seem like the Bucs were able to attack him in coverage either.
  5. Can’t say enough about Aqib Talib and the performance of the defensive backs. Looked to me like almost all the sacks were because of the coverage. Even when there were completed passes on them, the tackles came immediately.
  6. I’m still a little worried about Vince Wilfork. He was better against the Bucs, but has yet to really flash his usual dominance.
  7. Brady was off a bit for sure, but it’s all part of the process. I don’t think you can make any major judgement of Brady separate from the receivers he has, even if there were open throws he missed.
  8. Props to Gostkowski. There was some buzz around him this offseason, but he’s played as well as a kicker can play thus far. The impact of putting Ryan Allen in at holder has had zero effect.
  9. I still don’t love LeGarrette Blount and would be happy with a Ridley/Bolden rotation.
  10. Hopefully Gronk is back this week, they need him in the red zone especially and then things should really start to click.
  11. All in all it was an old-fashioned win. It’s tough for the Pats because they’re always judged against the high standards of past teams. But judged alone this looks like a team that will really improve and be a tough out once winter comes.

Patriots Must Weather Early Season Storm

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The start of the regular season is always filled with uncertainty and sloppy play, with teams headed for disastrous seasons often looking pretty good, and teams headed for the conference championship losing at home to teams that wouldn’t win another road game all season.

Couple this uncertainty with the amount of injuries that the Pats have had to deal with and it’s obvious that the 2013 Patriots are still very much an unknown.

By winning their first two games, regardless of the lack of style points they got in doing so, the Patriots have set themselves up to overcome their litany of injuries. Now they’ll face NFC opponents in three of the next four weeks, games unlikely to have a major impact on the AFC playoff race down the line.

The Patriots now have a cushion, at least in the division, to continue to force feed their rookie receivers as reinforcements slowly pour in.

The first expected to return is Rob Gronkowski, whose impact in all aspects of offensive football is undeniable. 

Re-incorporating the tight end into New England’s offense will provide a huge boost in both the passing and running game. Add in rookie Zach Sudfeld’s return from a hamstring injury that kept him out Week 2, and the Pats should have an entirely new dynamic to their offensive attack.

Danny Amendola will not require surgery for a sports hernia, putting the time table for his return around “a few weeks”. The ideal target return for him? When the Pats return to the division, traveling to the Jets in Week 7. That would give Amendola four more weeks to recover and give the Pats a boost in the Pats’ back-to-back divisional games with them facing the Dolphins the following week.

After an important Week 9 matchup against the Steelers, the Pats get their bye week, the first week running back Shane Vereen would be eligible to return. With that additional bye week to heal, the Pats should be fully healthy heading into the last two months of their season.

Their young wide receivers will have gotten plenty of experience, not only as third and fourth options, but as the primary weapons in the offense. That kind of experience is hard to come by and should pay dividends down the road.

Of course there will be other injuries the Pats must contend with, but no matter how ugly things looked in the first two games, they should be back to near full-strength for the stretch run, and not face a single divisional game as shorthanded as they were for the first two.

Get your Patriots tickets!!