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New England Patriots Offseason Review

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It’s hard to believe that in just a little over two months training camp will open. Since the Pats bowed out to the Ravens in the AFC Championship game we’ve written plenty on where we thought the team should go, how they should evolve schematically and the kind of weapons needed to take them to the next level.

Here’s our review of the things we prescribed and what the team has done regarding those prescriptions.

1. Let Wes Welker Walk

Obviously this was not an easy conclusion to come to. Wes was an outstanding player, but ultimately it came down to:

It’s time for the Patriots to evolve their offense again. We’ve seen the peak of the Welker-based attack, and it was great, especially in the regular season against teams that were ill-equipped to defend it. But if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse, and making another large investment in Welker will only delay the inevitable—at a detriment to the long-term viability of the team.

It’s unfortunate that Welker ended up with Peyton Manning, but it was the right move for the Patriots.

2. Rookies I Liked – Mock Draft Number One (2/4/2013) &  Mock Draft #2 (2/27/2013)

This might make me re-think all the draft research I do because in this first mock I nailed two of the Pats picks:

Aaron Dobson

On paper, Dobson seems to be the wide receiver the Patriots have been missing for both his ability to take the top off a defense as well as his size. 

Josh Boyce:

If the Patriots let Wes Welker walk they should likely bring back Julian Edelman for the slot receiver role, but with his injury history it would be smart to have some insurance for him. Boyce is a quick and physical wide receiver, and unlike Edelman or Welker, weighs over 200 pounds, so he should have the frame to hold up. Again, the biggest thing with the Patriots and receivers is whether or not they’re smart enough to play in the system, but Boyce is described as “competitive and a savvy route runner.”

We got progressively worse with our three mock drafts, but still nailed Logan Ryan in our second one.

Logan Ryan

Ryan excelled in a few of the events the Patriots like most. While his 4.56 40-yard-dash was average, he had the second-best defensive back time in the three cone drill and 60-yard shuttle, and the fourth-best defensive back time in the 20-yard shuttle. Couple those standout stats with his physical play, intelligence and association with one of Bill Belichick’s favorite college programs, and you have a prime Patriots draft target.

3. Improve pass rush on base downs

In one of the pieces I’m most proud of this offseason, I made the case that upgrading the starting defensive tackle spot next to Vince Wilfork with a better pass rushing presence would make the quickest impact on the defense.

The Patriots shifted to more of a traditional 4-3 end in Ninkovich this year, so why not switch to a more traditional 4-3 defensive tackle next to Wilfork?  They might give up something in run defense with such a player, but it’s not the run defense that is lighting them up in the middle of the field. The defensive tackles have the shortest path to the quarterback, so a real get-upfield disruptor would have a positive impact against quick passes to the flat on early downs.

Now with the release of Kyle Love it is certain that the Patriots will have a new defensive tackle starting. While some might just blame this on cold-hearted Bill Belichick and Love’s diabetes, it seems likely it’s also related to the scheme shift I prescribed.

From CSNNE:

The Patriots have signed Armond Armstead and former Raider Tommy Kelly this offseason. Additionally, they have Marcus Fortson back. All those players are leaner and faster than either Love or Deaderick. The Patriots are transitioning defensively from a team that plays a base 3-4 defense to a 4-3 team. They first made the switches on the outside last season. Now it appears they are working on the interior defensive line.

The other issue with the defense we saw was their inability to cover the middle of the field:

It’s also fair to consider if Brandon Spikes is really the right fit at middle linebacker.  There’s no doubt Spikes is a dominating presence against the run and brings an intimidating attitude to the defense. The Patriots had their best run defense of the last decade in 2012, but the trade-off was the coverage in the middle of the field against tight ends and slot receivers was atrocious and has been for the the last two seasons.

This leads us to number five:

4. Finding a coverage linebacker

When the Pats drafted Jamie Collins, most assumed he was a defensive end, but when Bill Belichick said he’d start out as a linebacker, it seemed to make sense they could use Collins’ freaky athleticism in pass coverage.

Chris Price of WEEI.com had this great piece, with this quote from Collins’ coach:

“I’ve seen him cover running backs and tight ends and wide receivers in the slot,” Duggan said of Collins, who 18 passes defensed and three picks (two returned for touchdowns) over the course of his career at USM. “He understands pass coverage assignments, and he’s so strong that when he gets his hands on you, you aren’t moving. But he also has really good speed and good bend, and he can cover with the best of them. Tight ends, he can match up with them. He’s really fast and really athletic and really strong.“I think that when he gets to the NFL, he’ll be able to match up with the tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. Heck, he spent a lot of time matched up on wide receivers when he was here at Southern Miss.”

5. Drafting an X-receiver

I was never a fan of bringing Mike Wallace in for a huge amount of money, nor was I really even that high on the Emmanuel Sanders potential move. I thought all along the Pats had to bite the bullet and draft an X.

There are a number of players who seem to fit the physical mold you’d look for in an X-receiver and should be available in the late first round and into the second round, such as Justin Hunter, Da’Rick Rogers or Aaron Dobson. It might be risky because none are the slam dunk that Jones and Green were, but it’s the only way they can get a potential X-receiver in the system without taking a huge financial risk on a veteran who may or may not work out.

Overall, I’m extremely impressed with what the Patriots have done this offseason. They have addressed every area I believe they needed to this offseason. They weren’t all easy decisions, losing Welker and letting go of Love and Deaderick will challenge the team’s depth and new players.

But when it comes down to what they struggled with most last season, they’ve taken aggressive steps in each area to address each area.

Brady Faces Toughest Passing Test of Career in 2013

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Brady Faces Toughest Passing Test of Career in 2013

Our Friday column is up and it’s all about Tom Brady and the impact of the revamped passing game on his legacy. Found some interesting stuff looking back at the number of top receivers other long-term elite quarterbacks had. This is really a chance for Brady to put the final nail in the greatest of all time debate.

2013 Patriots NFL Draft Board

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POST DRAFT ANALYSIS: Of these 50 prospects I had Logan Ryan and Aaron Dobson. Also had Chris Jones though he wasn’t drafted by the Pats, but I’ll give myself a check for that one. Should’ve had Josh Boyce too but he was left off for some reason. More impressive is that of my three total mock drafts for B/R I nailed Dobson and Boyce in the first one, and Ryan in the second. Got nobody on the third, but I’ll take it. 3 out of 50 on the Big Board, 3 out of 15 on the mocks. Not bad.

For the past two years I’ve put together a Patriots-only big board, which is a collection of prospects that I think fit the Patriots. The goal is to nail as many Pats picks as possible on this board, so it’s less about the order of them, and more about who’s here and how they fit the Pats style. It’s heavily skewed toward what I see as the biggest needs, WR, CB, coverage LB, and then OL and S to a lesser level.

In 2011, I had four (Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen) out of their nine. Including picking both Solder and Dowling in our one and only Patriots mock draft. Let’s hope I can get back to that kind of performance this year.

In 2012, I had just two (Chandler Jones, Alfonzo Dennard) of the seven picks. Debated long and hard over D’onta Hightower but ultimately left him off because he was too similar to Spikes, and really I think the Pats paid a little bit for having him and Spikes both out there together this year.

So here it is, our favorite 50…

  1. Shariff Floyd (DT, Florida): Could do it all, and make an immediate impact inside. Too bad he’ll be gone in the top-10.
  2. Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri): The best get upfield defensive tackle in the draft who plays mean. Some character concerns, and unlikely to drop anyway, but he’d be fun in the PAts system.
  3. Datone Jones (DT, UCLA): Versatile fit who could fill a number of spots along the defensive line, including interior pass rusher. Seems like a great value pick, a very popular target in Pats mocks.
  4. DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson): Tough, explosive receiver that can do it all. As always, the question is does he have the FBI to play with Brady?
  5. Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama): Huge mass of a man who’s still learning the game. Would be an ideal partner for Wilfork if the Pats continue to run the “double nose” defense. Haloti Ngata-type size.
  6. Keenan Allen (WR, CAL): Prototypical size, can play inside or outside. Injury issues, but that could put him in the Pats range. Good compliment to the WRs the Pats have now.
  7. Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington): Confident and competitive, lacks ideal size and physicality, but knows what to expect in the NFL and should make a good pro.
  8. Robert Woods (WR, USC): Classic outside receiver with the size the Pats like. Another popular receiver option who could play outside.
  9. Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech): Tough runner after catch, with size to play outside. Smooth. 
  10. Johnathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State): Smooth athlete with ball skills and versatility. Potential to start on the outside immediately.
  11. Johnathan Hankins (DL, Ohio State): Another versatile guy who could play in multiple spots, more hold ground type. Connection to Vrabel/Meyer cannot be discounted.
  12. Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers): Aggressive, solid all-around football player with good size. A popular fit given Belichick’s connections to Rutgers.
  13. Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State): Excels in downfield man coverage, and plays aggressive.
  14. Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina): Quick and disruptive, but in a traditional 4-3 tackle mold. Selection would signal departure from double nose defense.
  15. Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, UConn): Tall corner with all the intangibles.
  16. D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina): Violent hitter, team leader who can play man-to-man in the slot.
  17. Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State): An elite disruptor before getting injured, Carradine would need time, but could add a pass rush force in time.
  18. Chris Harper (WR, Kansas State): Former quarterback, with a great build, and strength. 
  19. David Amerson (CB, NC State): 13 interceptions in 2011, down year in 2012. Huge upside if he takes to coaching. Great second-round value.
  20. Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State): Lacks size and measurables but simply makes plays. Special Teams experience.
  21. Alex Okafor (DE, Texas):  Better fit at left defensive end than Ninkovich, could be a long-term replacement.
  22. Margus Hunt (DE, SMU): Developmental, but again, a Ninkovich replacement for 2014. Great size, could be an intimidating bookend with Jones once he develops.
  23. Cobi Hamilton (WR, Arkansas): Elite work ethic and experience in a similar system to the Patriots. Perhaps the safest receiver pick?
  24. Aaron Dobson (WR, Marshall): Physical, and acrobatic with good size, would need some time to develop in an NFL offense.
  25. Aaron Mellette (WR, Elon): Small school, but good size to play outside. Rumored Pats interest already.
  26. Stedman Bailey (WR, West Virginia):  A little undersized but competitive and physical in his routes. Another potential safe pick.
  27. Leon McFadden (CB, San Diego State): Undersized but experienced and competitive. Good fit for slot.
  28. Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State): One of the best press corners in the draft.
  29. Brandon Williams (DT, Missouri Southern): Big, athletic and versatile. Might need time to develop. Good value pick with a lot of potential.
  30. Jelani Jenkins (LB, Florida): Dime linebacker in the Patriots system, with potential at Will.
  31. Zaviar Gooden (LB, Missouri): Blew up the combine, special teams potential, linebacker who can run. Projects to Will in the Patriots system.
  32. Jordan Hill (DT, Penn State): Solid character with quickness off the ball. Projects as specialty interior rusher. Bill O’Brien connection should shed light on him.
  33. Montori Hughes (DT, Tennesee-Martin): Large, powerful inside presence.
  34. Sean Porter (LB, Texas A&M): Highly respected player who could play special teams and bring some third-down pass rush specialty, while potentially developing at Will. 
  35. Brent Russell  (DT, Georgia Southern) One-gapper who could immediately compete in the inside.
  36. John Simon (LB, Ohio State): Intense and competitive, would be a great fit in a matchup defense like the Pats.
  37. A.J. Klein (LB, Iowa Sate): Strongside Linebacker has work ethic and versatility.
  38. Josh Boyd (DT, Mississippi St.): Great motor and strength, could make impact inside.
  39. Jamoris Slaughter (SS, Notre Dame): Tough, explosive and versatile, lined up all over the defense. Achilles injury.
  40. Tony Jefferson (S, Oklahoma): Solid football player with a lot of experience, could develop into effective two-way safety.
  41. Philip Thomas (S, Fresno State): Leader of the secondary, athletic and quick. Gruesome injury in 2011.
  42. Emmett Cleary (RT, Boston College): Smart, tough and versatile.
  43. Rick Wagner (L/RT, Wisconsin): Strong and tough with great size and length.
  44. Brandon McGee (CB, Miami): Good quickness, could project inside to slot, or even outside.
  45. Reid Fragel (RT, Ohio State): Former tight end who plays hard in multiple roles. Similar size and movement skills to Solder, could back-up both tackle spots.
  46. Eric Herman (OG, Ohio): Huge and violent.
  47. Josh Johnson (DB, Purdue): Three year starter, strong and tough enough to play special teams and compete for time in dime.
  48. John Boyett (DB, Oregon): Plays and works hard, loves football. Special Teams while finding a role on defense.
  49. Hugh Thornton (OG, Illinois): Versatile, overcame tough circumstances.
  50. Chris Jones (DT, Bowling Green): Try-hard interior defensive lineman who’s extremely productive.