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Patriots vs. Dolphins All-22 Review: 3rd Down Defense

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Last week in my All-22 review I took a look at the atrocious 3rd down defense against the Jets, so this week I’m following that up looking at how the defense turned things around against the Dolphins on the money down, giving up conversions on just 2-of-11.

The headline is of course pass rush, which was non-existent against the Jets but suddenly great against Miami. If they play like that consistently in the playoffs if won’t matter who’s in the secondary.

Also want to focus on how Collins and Hightower are used on each down.

Here’s a look at all 11 third downs and what the Pats did.

1. 1Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-11,  Matthews 15-yard catch. FIRST DOWN!

The first third down of the day was the worst one as the Pats defense picked up where they had left off against the Jets, giving up a third-and-long.

Pats show Cover-2, but it’s actually Cover-1 with McCourty coming down as the “Robber”. Hightower blitzes off the edge, Collins is in man on the running back. Easley is double teamed and can’t split it. Chandler tries a move back inside but is stood up, while Ninkovich soft rushes and appears to be spying Tannehill. Ryan does get a hand on Matthews, but it’s a good route and a perfect throw. Here you just need Hightower or Jones to win and neither did.

2. 1Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-8, Chandler Jones SACK!

Pats are in Cover-1, Collins in man on the RB, McCourty on the TE. Hightower is off for a three safety/three corner, speed front with Grissom and Easley inside.

This was a designed screen that was blown up by Chung reading it perfectly and Grissom getting after Tannehill with his hair on fire. But it’s Chung that makes Tannehill pull it down. Chandler gets the sack but the play was completely broken down by that point so it’s hard to really say it was all him.

3. 2Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-10, BAD SNAP SAFETY!

Same three-safety/three-corner package as before without Hightower. Cover-1 Robber, with Chung on the TE and McCourty coming down. Collins on the RB. Bad snap makes it easy.

4. 2Q, Pats 9-0, 3rd-and-10, INCOMPLETE!

This time we’ve got three-safety/three-corner but Hightower on for Grissom. Cover-1 Man, Ryan is in off-man coverage and is in perfect position for when the ball has to come out due to the pressure. This time it’s McCourty in coverage on the running back as the Pats rush five. Both Chandler and Ninkovich win inside and Tannehill just has to chuck it. Full credit here to Chandler Jones for a great move.

5. 2Q, Pats 9-0, 3rd-and-10, Chandler Jones SACK!

Interesting package here with four safeties, three corners, two LBs and two DEs. Harmon took the deep middle, while McCourty and Richards played an underneath zone. Chung had the TE (who stayed in to block) while Collins took the RB. But this was all Chandler Jones as he splits the TE/LT double team and gets the sack.

6. 2Q, Pats 12-0, 3rd-and-13, INCOMPLETE (Chung pass defended)

Same four-safety/three-corner look from the last third down with no defensive tackles. Collins is on the RB leaving just 50/54/95 to rush the passer. Was a pretty quick throw, but neither Chandler or Ninkovich made much of an impact on it. Chung plays it perfectly, and Richards helps from his under-zone coverage spot. Really he probably could pick this one.

7. 3Q, Pats 22-7, 3rd-and-1, Miller -2 rush!

Finally a third-and-short and the Pats go to their regular package with 4 DL/3 LB. Nothing technical here, simply Siliga exploding into the seam between the blockers and making the play in the backfield. Hicks also does a good job on his side, as does Freeny who fills well. This is the kind of short yardage play the Patriots have not made enough of in the last two years. Positive sign.

8. 3Q, Pats 22-7, 3rd-and-3, Matthews 4 yard catch FIRST DOWN!

Patriots break out a new look here at the end of the third quarter with Collins and Hightower on the edges, Easley/Grissom in the B gaps and Chandler Jones head-up on the center. Nink comes on a delayed blitz but the Miami OL does a good job pushing the entire pass rush to Tannehill’s right. Matthews gets just enough separation on the drag route and converts the second third-down of the day.

9. 4Q, Pats 29-7, 3rd-and-28, Gray 3-yard catch.

After back to back sacks Miami is in a huge hole. Dolphins just concede with the checkdown and the Pats snuff it out.

10. 4Q, Pats 36-7, 3rd-and-10, Matthews 5-yard catch.

Pats are working in their backups at this point (Hi Jerod Mayo!). Quick throw by Tannehill but good toughness by the defense to fight off blocks and hold him to just 5 yards off the WR screen that Matthews look less than enthusiastic about running.

11. 4Q, Pats 36-7, 3rd-and-23, Incomplete

Last one of the game and the pass rush isn’t exactly rushing like it’s the Super Bowl anymore. Ryan is in off man and plays the in cut well, although I don’t think he got a hand on the ball.

Final Thoughts: It was interesting to see Hightower come off the field on third down in a couple situations. The 4 safety/3 cornerback package was a new twist I don’t recall before, but in tracking all the third downs you can see how they throw new curves in each quarter to keep things fresh. This was a great game for Chandler Jones, and I’d love to see him put three games in Jan/Feb together like this. If he can, the Pats could win the Super Bowl. He’s such a big key because they can scheme him to get one-on-one matchups. Same thing for Sheard once he returns.

Pats Posits: We’re not even halfway yet

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Despite getting thrown off my usual schedule by the Patriots’ Thursday night game, I don’t mind a full Sunday of the Red Zone Channel and no stress. Lots of great games yesterday, capped off by the Broncos knocking the Packers off in a game that I think most everyone believed would result in Denver getting smacked.

So now the Pats’ game in Denver certainly looks a bit more intriguing, but I think it’s worth reminding everyone out there thinking about 16-0 and making reservations in San Fran for early February that the season is not even halfway over yet. So many things can still change. Even I’m guilty of imagining what might be possible if the Pats can avoid the injury bug for the next two months. They got off to a great start and then got whacked with the Brown/Solder/Cannon/Sheard hits in weeks 5 and 6.

As I’m sure you’ve heard the trade deadline is tomorrow. I would never rule anything out but I just can’t play the trade speculation game. Everyone has a certain player that makes sense, but when it comes down to it I think the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender as currently constituted. Again, it’s just a matter of staying healthy. But making a trade for a starting corner or tackle seems like a longshot to me at this point.

One thing I noticed this morning was that Brandon Browner is once again leading the league in penalties and I don’t think this is something we can dismiss when considering the Pats letting him walk.

Truth be told, I was more annoyed at letting Browner walk than Revis at the time last spring, because that sparked everyone to say the Pats were going back to a more zone based defense. That was unthinkable to me because quarterbacks are just too good against zone defense now to make that your bread and butter. I was ecstatic when the Pats continued to stick primarily with man defense even if the personnel didn’t totally scream man-to-man. And really I think it’s paid off, in good part because the front seven has been fresher and better for 60 minutes overall than they have been in a long time.

Lot of love out there for Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon this week, with Harmon and Chung both begin chosen as PFF’s top safeties this week. Belichick mentioned that in his first stint with the Pats, they used Chung more in Cover-2, whereas now he’s basically playing linebacker 90% of the time. His coverage of tight ends has certainly improved over the last two years, and he certainly had his struggles facing more wide receivers from 2009-2012.

The guy I’m most curious about though is Jordan Richards, who continues to impress me each week as his role continues to grow a bit each time he takes the field. Richards will replace Chung at some point, and my early impression is that his ceiling will be even higher.

Despite Chris Ivory’s injury, the Pats’ run defense has been as good as we’ve seen it the last two weeks against two very tough running teams. The inside defensive tackle rotation is really working well and I wonder if not having Wilfork to rely on has helped the front deliver a more consistent performance.

What I’d like to see most is for the defense to show their full potential against the Broncos. How would the defense look once Sheard and Easley hit their stride alongside Collins, Hightower, Chandler and Nikovich? That’s when things might get scary good and hopefully that’s what we’re building to in Jan/Feb.

Stop me if I get annoying but I can’t get enough of Dion Lewis. The offense was already a bunch of impossible choices when it was mainly Gronk and Edelman leading the way while LaFell and Amendola filled in with timely clutch catches. Now the third dynamic that Lewis brings is what is truly making this new version of the offense unique and potentially as unstoppable as we’ve ever seen. Lewis doesn’t just make something out of nothing, he makes amazing out of nothing. And when there is something there he has yet to fall short. I’m not sure there’s a defense out there that can match up with Gronk/Edelman/Lewis.

After this lackluster Redskins game there are four interesting games in a row – @NYG, BUF, @DEN and PHI. These will be the best, and likely only remaining tests on the schedule, unless the Jets find a way to bounce back after losing to the suddenly dangerous Raiders.

It’s hard not to just think about the playoffs this year with the light schedule and overall dominance so far, but I still believe there will be more adversity to define this team. I just hope it’s not a critical injury because it still looks like that might be the only thing that can stop the Patriots from getting back to the Super Bowl.

Pats Posits: Fins Down, Way Down

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The Patriots are leaving no doubt this season as they steamrolled the Dolphins, proving completely capable of rushing the passer and shutting down an offense that looked very sharp (in the first half) in last week’s game.

Some want to label 2015 as a revenge year for Brady and the Pats, but to me it seems like the pressure if finally off for Belichick and Brady to get that elusive number four. Brady seems more relaxed and poised than we’ve seen him since 2010, and maybe even all the way back to 2007.

The Dolphins stopped the Patriots offense quite a few times, but Brady and his offense were patient and relentless.

Then there’s the defense who finally flashed a ferocity we’ve been waiting for. There are five 1st rounders playing prominent roles and all are coming into their prime.

2014 1st Dominique Easley and 2015 1st Malcom Brown are both getting better each week and it they’ve filled some weaknesses nicely.

But it’s Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins that are the key pieces and when Chandler Jones plays like he did against the Dolphins his contract size after 2016 next gets a little higher.

The Patriots defense has shown they can stop the run, with Alan Branch being a big key, and when their pass rush is clicking they can cause havoc. That’s the kind of defense that wins Super Bowls, no matter who’s in your secondary.

Exciting.

Now the Pats get a short extra break to rest and refuel. 

Here are the Posits:

Dion Lewis. Dion Lewis. Dion Lewis. I don’t know what else to say anymore. This guy blows my mind every single game and once again he was playing with his hair on fire. What a new element Lewis has added to this team. He is a nightmare, and so so hard to tackle in space. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen. I can’t get enough!

I don’t want to sell Brady, Gronk or Edelman short. Those guys were all once again clutch throughout the game and unstoppable as always. They’ve been doing it so long now it’s almost expected and we’re spoiled for that.

Nice to see LaFell getting some catches as we knew he would.The back shoulder fade is his bread and butter with BRady. I’m not so sure about those screens unless he’s on a smaller DB, but he’s getting into a groove.

Now we will see the power of a fully operational Patriots offense, assuming that…

The offensive line wasn’t great. Brady still could get the job done, but it was a little scary a few times and he took a couple good shots. Hopefully Jackson is not gone for long. Luckily Stork and Wendell are coming back at the right rime.

But I’d really, really, really like to get Marcus Cannon back and I can’t believe I just typed that.

Anytime Ninkovich and Chandler Jones combined for three sacks and five QB hits the Patriots defense will be okay.

I really don’t know who I like better – Collins or Hightower, and I’m not going to make myself choose, I can just love both of them the same and by the same I mean a lot.

I think Butler, Ryan and Coleman did a pretty good job. It wasn’t perfect but it was better and that’s all you can ask for. Coleman has been breaking up passes every game, and tough ones too. Butler is aggressive and always on his man. Ryan has found some consistency.

Around now is when you know what you’ve got and I think this defense is absolutely one that can win a Super Bowl. The secondary, or more specifically cornerbacks, are not a fatal flaw. If they’re defense is going to break it will be because Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Sheard and Hightower have a quiet game.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Miami Dolphins

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These Thursday night games sneak up on you fast, especially after my whirlwind trip to the Pats-Jets game last weekend. If the Pats can just get through this one with a win they’ll get their final small break before the drive to the playoffs really begins. These couple extra days of rest can make a big difference, especially for guys like Jabaal Sheard
 and Marcus Cannon
 who we’ll definitely need down the stretch.

This is the Dolphins team everyone thought we’d see in 2015. Yes, they started off terrible but since Dan Campbell took over during their bye week they look like a new team. 

The most interesting part of this game to me is the coaching matchup. It’s a short week. It might be a little wet out. Guys are still sore. For a coach like Belichick, he knows how to handle this. But Campbell is getting his first taste of it and after ramping up the physicality in practice, the Dolphins won’t be hitting this week.

But it’s more than just game prep, it’s about in-game adjustments. These new Dolphins want a street fight, which the Patriots are more than capable of playing, but what happens when the Dolphins have to adjust to the new twists the Patriots will throw at them? Will Campbell and his staff know the answers and be able to implement them? Because playing the Patriots puts as much pressure on a coaching staff as it does the opposing players.

Campbell has been praised for simplifying the Dolphins approach on both sides of the ball, so it seems a stretch to think he has any major curveballs up his sleeve for the Patriots. More likely, Belichick knows exactly what they’re doing and what is needed to stop it. 

It’s a big opportunity for the Pats to move to 7-0 overall, 3-0 in the division and essentially put a stranglehold on the division crown.

Here’s the gameplan…

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Offensive Gameplan

I’ve really enjoyed writing the offensive gameplans this year because they’re really quite simple. Do what you do, Patriots, because no one has stopped it consistently yet.

Obviously having Dion Lewis back would be a huge bonus. I’m surprised that no one really seems to mention how useful he would’ve been against the Jets. He is the lead back now for the Scalpel (fka Dink and Dunk) as the Patriots will spread out the defense, see how they want to play and then go to work exploiting the matchups that favor them.

There aren’t many defenses out there that can match up with the Dion Lewis we saw the first four games of the season and the Dolphins certainly aren’t one.

I do have some concerns about the lessened athleticism at the tackle spots. Neither Vollmer nor Fleming move particularly well, but both are strong once they get their hands on rushers. Still, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are going to make some plays here. They just can’t be allowed to unravel the gameplan because both tackles need help.

The Dolphins are third in DVOA covering tight ends, so that adds some intrigue to a team’s latest attempt to slow down Rob Gronkowski.

But perhaps the biggest area I’m curious about is once the Pats feel the defense is loosened up enough to put LeGarrette Blount in. If there’s one statistical area Miami has been light years better at with Campbell it’s run defense. Before Campbell they were giving up 160.6 rushing yards-per-game. In the last two games they’ve give up 134 total.

Their defense is playing up to their potential now. Ndamukong Suh and safety Reshad Jones looked outstanding against the Texans and are just the kind of players who, on the right night, can give the Patriots problems.

The Dolphins are better now, but it’s still a huge task to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, especially on a short week. If the Dolphins defense wins the physical battle in the trenches, they could pull off the upset. The Patriots must keep the Dolphins on their heels and hopefully in their own heads trying to adjust to what twists the Pats are throwing at them.

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Defensive Gameplan

Ryan Tannehill was in the zone last week against the Texans. Every pass he calmly threw was perfectly placed, hitting his receivers in stride and allowing them to turn short catches into long runs.

Can Tannehill be that good week in and week out? I’m not convinced of that, but he is certainly the second-best quarterback in the AFC East right now and could enter the conversation as one of the brightest rising QBs in the league if he can continue to play with that kind of effortless accuracy.

But the Patriots have a way of making opposing offenses play left-handed so to speak. The throws that Tannehill was making last week had to make Belichick smile, because in many ways it was a lot like what Brady and the Patriots offense do. Find the right matchup, get the ball out on time and let the playmakers go to work.

So this means the defense will need a gameplan like the ones we usually see against our offense – taking away the short passing game. Forcing Tannehill to hold the ball and make the deeper throws. Whether this is done with playing tight man coverage like the Pats did against Fitzpatrick last week, or loading up the short zones is something I’m interested to see.

But perhaps more important is tackling. That sounds simple, but that’s really what killed a Texans team who put together what might be the worst half of football I’ve seen in a long time last week. So much of the Dolphins’ damage was done after multiple missed tackles, and on a short week of rest with guys still banged up, there might be less desire to get down and dirty when it comes to tackling. 

Tannehill is making the tough throws right now, and unless the Pats’ pass rush wakes up after their slumber against the Jets, it’s hard to see them totally taking him off his game. So limiting the yards-after-catch is vital with good, sound tackling. When you’re playing on short rest the fundamentals can be the first things to suffer, that can’t happen against Miami.

But the other problem is Lamar Miller who has 288 yards rushing in his last two games. The Patriots proved that they could stop the run when they wanted to last week against the Jets (and spare me the “Ivory was hurt” line, there was nothing there for him even if he was healthy) but can they commit seven or eight to the box with the way Tannehill is throwing the ball? That leaves less margin for error on tackling and puts a lot of pressure on Devin McCourty on the back end.

It will be an interesting balance for the Patriots defense this week, but this is a very similar passing offense to the one they see every day. 

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Tackle – I mentioned this before and I’m mentioning it again because I really think the Patriots defense will be as good as they tackle in this one. If Dolphins receivers are catching quick passes, breaking tackles and getting big gains, the Patriots could lose. Completions will happen, but if the receivers are wrapped up and put down right at the catch, like the Pats defense usually does, it will force Tannehill to continue to execute and I don’t think he has the patience that Brady does yet. That will lead to mistakes and incompletions.

2. Stop Run in Sub – Last week the Pats focused their attention on stopping Chris Ivory with a heavy box, but this week the Dolphins passing offense scares me more than the Jets’ did because the excel in an area that always gives the Patriots defense trouble. That means there will be more need to stop the run with the sub defense, an area that often gets pummeled when the Patriots lose games. Alan Branch has been getting better and better, as has rookie Malcolm Brown. They’ll be big keys along with Dominique Easley on those 2nd and 3rd downs with intermediate yardage to go.

3. Weather the Dolphins DL Storm: The Dolphins defensive line is too good not to make some plays in this one, but the Patriots must make sure those plays are isolated and don’t compound upon each other. They’ve done a good job dealing with Suh in the past, but he’s never been paired with edge rushers like Wake and Vernon. For the second week in a row the Pats face a DL specifically built to attack them. The quick passing game can mitigate a lot of the DL’s potential impact, but staying focused through the ups-and-downs will be critical.

4. Curveballs: Belichick must throw some curveballs at Dan Campbell and see how he adjusts. The Dolphins want this to be a street fight. They don’t want to be forced to think and adjust on the fly. That will put them into a place where they can exposed and beaten. So giving them things they haven’t seen before will be the best route to get them there.

5. Win: I don’t want to say this game is effectively for the AFC East division title, but it’s pretty close. The Pats won’t see the Jets or Dolphins again until the end of the season. That means they’d be one home win over Buffalo away from being 4-0 in the division and that would probably lock things up. But we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. A win and then getting a couple days off would be just what the Patriots need right now. They need to cut loose with one more good performance and then they can regroup and put all their focus into the late-season surge to the playoffs.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

Patriots vs. Jets All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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Third down defense was obviously the headline in this one so today we’re just going to take a closer look at some of the more interesting ones. The Jets converted 8-of-14 third downs and really, that’s why this was a ballgame. 

It was frustrating because they executed the early-down gameplan so well. The run defense was truly impressive and that bodes well for the defense long term. But really, pass rush on third down is vital and in this game it was virtually non-existent.

Couple that with some softer man coverage and the Jets were picking up first downs on numerous 3rd-and-longs.

Let’s review the damage…

1. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 24 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 2 Man. Decker motions across formation then runs an in cut across the open flat. Pats rush 3, with Hightower spying Fitzpatrick. Throw comes in rhythm as Easley/Nink are held up. If Hightower drops a bit he might’ve take this throw away, as the MOF is wide open. Butler stumbles at Decker’s stem, and can’t recover.

VERDICT: Quick play, Butler needed better patience as Decker reached the stem of his route. But knowing the MOF was open he should’ve anticipated it was an in cut.

2. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 1 Man. Butler is off Decker but steps toward him at the snap to get a jam but misses and is in recovery mode the rest of the down. Decker stops and turns, blocking Butler out with his size. This time it’s a traditional pass rush with Collins/Hightower dropping into the flat.  Pocket holds just long enough.

VERDICT: Needed more disruption from one of the front four as Collins/Hightower dropping out did nothing to confuse anyone. That’s where you need Easley to truck someone. Still, Butler was sloppy with his technique and couldn’t recover. Tough gamble on the jam, if he had gotten a hand on Decker the timing might’ve been thrown off.

3. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 2 at the Pats 2. Incomplete. STOP!!

Pats in goalline, the Jets try to iso Chung on tight end Cumberland. Probably a touchdown most times, but Chung might’ve gotten a hand in there. Tough to tell from the All-22 view. Pats hold for a field goal.

VERDICT: Get ready for more of these kind of targets, Chung.

4. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 4, Decker 17 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man. Butler is playing off and this time Decker beats him with an out route. Pats send 6 this time but everyone is picked up and Fitzpatrick makes a quick and perfect throw. 

VERDICT: Every pass rusher is blocked one-on-one and Butler’s coverage is just soft enough for Fitz to throw it in there.

5. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 10, Kerley 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man as Jets run a sort of screen pass into the middle of the defense. Kerley cuts in, Coleman gets picked (probably illegally) and then Fitzpatrick sidearms it to Kerley who makes his way through the middle of the field avoiding tackles from Flowers and Chandler Jones.

VERDICT: Nice play design by the Jets to attack the vacated middle of the field. Perhaps a little better awareness from the defensive line could’ve stopped him short, but no one had a clean shot.

I’d just like to pause here to point out we just ended the first quarter and the Jets have already picked up four of five third downs and three of those were from 3rd&10. Unacceptable and really set a crappy tone for the game.

6. 2Q, Jets 10-3, Jets 3rd & 2, Incomplete.

The Pats are in Cover-1 Man and have six in the box, rushing four then dropping out Ninkovich and Hightower. It looks like Jamie Collins gets a hand on the pass, but Logan Ryan has a solid jam and Marshall can never get going anyway.

VERDICT: Keep up the solid jams.

7. 2Q, Tied at 10, Jets 3rd & 8, Decker 7 yards. PUNT!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as the Jets have a bunch formation to the right. Butler seems leans the wrong way and that’s more than enough for Decker on the out route. Pressure is right there should the throw not be there but it is.

VERDICT: Butler just didn’t seem to close ground as quickly as we’ve seen in the past and took some false steps that he couldn’t recover from. Still, he tackled well enough and held the Jets a yard short.

8. 2Q, Pats 13-10, Jets 3rd & 3, Fitzpatrick sacked by Collins. PUNT!

Pats in Cover 1-Man with the Jets having two stacked receivers on either side of the formation. Hightower makes this play by blitzing from his off-line linebacker spot and pancaking Mangold into Fitzpatrick’s feet just as he sets. Collins shows good patience and finishes Fitz off as he tried to scramble.

VERDICT: Someone made a play on third down and they’re off the field. Shocker.

9. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Smith 7 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as Smith runs a drag across the field and Fitzpatrick finds him off his back foot at the last second. This one was close as you can see from the pic below. Easley does a good job and that in turn opens things up for Ninkovich as well. Just a half a second too slow or else this one is a sack, and an ugly one.

VERDICT: Almost doesn’t count in pass rushing. Tough play for Coleman navigating all the traffic.

10. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 5, Marshall 13 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man, Jets motion Marshall out of the backfield, Ryan gets hands on him but doesn’t disrupt him. No pressure on Fitzpatrick.

VERDICT: Jets could make this all day with that kind of pocket and he could’ve throw to Kerley as well in the flat.

11. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Decker 23 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man, Decker goes in motion and gets knocked off course by both Butler and Chandler Jones off the snap. Still he recovers and runs a post. Fitzpatrick is unpressured (Pats only rushed 3) and sticks a perfect pass in there. Huge play.

VERDICT: Even with Hightower and Chandler lurking in passing zones Fitzpatrick still found Decker who got back on course quicker than Butler did after the jam at the line.

12. 4Q, Jets 17-16, Jets 3rd & 7 from NE12, INCOMPLETE! 

The third down stop that saved the game, this was a critical one. Pats are in a Cover-2 Man and rush 4. Marshall seemed to push Logan Ryan away and that in turn seemed to unsettle him for the back shoulder throw. Probably should’ve been a touchdown, but there was a bit of pressure coming with Hightower.

VERDICT: Not great, but the Pats kept the points gap manageable. 

Overall I think the headline for all these third down mostly-failures was just no one making plays up front. The only disruption caused by anyone was one Hightower blitz. Otherwise there was limited disruption. 

Coverage-wise Butler seemed to lack his usual anticipation and burst. I think this might’ve been his flattest game this season and he paid the price for it. 

Still, the Pats won the war and their gameplan was generally effective. If they could’ve just gotten off the field on a couple more third downs their margin of victory would’ve been certainly higher.

Pats Posits: 30,000 Feet Edition

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Greetings from somewhere over America! It was quite the whirlwind weekend for me, but a hard-fought Patriots win (and time with family) made it all worth it. 

Our seats were in the low 300s and I was reminded how much I enjoy watching football from up above. I was also reminded how much easier it is to track personnel when you’re at the game and can see who comes on and who comes off. 

The Jets are rightly getting a lot of respect out there and they deserve it. They did almost everything you need to do to beat New England at home. Just one turnover that resulted in only three points. Clutch third down plays. They were just a few plays away.

The pressure here was on the Patriots to hold serve at home. They did. Now the Jets need to build off this loss and stay on the Pats heels. That second-to-last game of the season in New York might mean something.

But enough about the Jets, ON TO THE POSITS!

The headline on defense is third down with a sub-heading about the red zone. It’s not complicated. They executed exactly what they had to on early downs – they shut down Chris Ivory (17c, 41yds). But on the third-and-longs Fitzpatrick wasn’t throwing picks, he was throwing to open receivers.

For the offense it’s all about the drops. Like all sane Patriots fans, I give LaFell a pass. I might’ve starting going to Dobson around drop number four, but we all LaFell in love with him for a reason – he’s good. He just needs to get up to game speed.

This is what the NFL has decided they wanted and the Patriots are giving it to them –  the ability to completely ignore the running game. It’s not just the “mobile” quarterbacks that are leading their teams in rushing! Handing off just five times in the game was a sign of respect for the Jets’ run defense. Belichick won’t run into a brick wall.

I’m sure there were some hiccups but gotta tip the cap to the offensive line, especially Cameron Fleming who is hanging in there strong. That was no easy feat against the Jets.

It seemed to me like the Patriots defense were playing mostly the Cover-1 Robber they played with Revis and Browner last year. I for one am glad they stuck with this aggressive coverage. You have to in today’s NFL.

Rookie cornerback Justin Coleman is another player who has hung in tough after being thrust into action. He really fits the mold and seems to be making progress each week.

They really missed Jabaal Sheard’s presence on third down. After what we saw out of Miami yesterday it would be good to have him back on Thursday.

Gotta give Tom Brady his due. Never want to take that guy for granted. But such a tough, gritty performance by 12. This game felt a lot like last Super Bowl, with Brady suddenly clicking on fire in fourth quarter.

The Seahawks SB comparison sticks with the third-and-17 the Pats converted on the drive to take the lead. The game was in the balance right there and once again Brady-to-Edelman came through.

Didn’t even realize that Gronk caught that many balls – 11/108/1. Lot of them felt like dumpoffs that only went 3-4 yards.Pryor was doing a good job on Gronk before he got hurt. Then things opened up.

James White left me wanting a little more but had a bit of elusiveness like Lewis. But clearly Lewis is better and now I wonder how things would look if we never found him.

One of my big keys was having Dont’a Hightower
 for this one and he showed why he was needed. I can’t wait to watch him a little closer on the re-watch. Him and Collins are in their third year playing together and are just a lethal pairing that covers the physicality-athleticism spectrum.

Danny Amendola
, I’m ready to extend him right now. His cap hit next year at $6.8 million is too big, and it would only be a $2.7 hit to cut. But what an amazing cog he has become. Over and over again he’s come up with clutch catches in big spots. Acrobatic catches. If there’s a way to tack on a couple years, spread his cap hit out a bit I say keep him around!

Quick turn around on the Dolphins, will get into the immediately. But from the sounds of it there won’t be much time to geel good about beating the Jets, this Miami team is coming in confident.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. New York Jets

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The Patriots are back in the division this weekend as the Jets come to Foxboro riding high with a 4-1 record. Things are never dull with the Jets and this game is no exception despite the lower amounts of chatter without Rex Ryan involved.

It’s an especially exciting weekend for me as I’ll be making my yearly pilgrimage back home to Massachusetts to attend the game. I’ll also be visiting tailgates with some swag to give away, so if you’re going to be there (and you have free food/drinks) please drop me a line! The grand prize will be finding a set of Patriots-Jets fans there together and then giving them tickets to the rematch in New Jersey in December.

Without Rex Ryan I’m having a little trouble adjusting to the new Jets under Todd Bowles who sounds a lot more measured than Rex ever did. That scares me a bit, because often you could count on Rex’s Jets to psych themselves out or get too caught up in the Patriots mystique. Still, Rex’s Jets always played us hard and close and while Bowles’ defensive philosophies are similar, we’ll see if he can get the same kind of effort Rex always did.

This is the kind of game that the football season is all about. The Jets have a great defense that will test Brady like he hasn’t been tested before this season. And on the other side of the ball, they have enough balance to really make the Patriots defense prove how good they are. These are the matchups I blog for!

Here’s my gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

There’s no denying the Jets have as talented a front four as you’ll find in the NFL, and their secondary, led by old pal Darrelle Revis, can play any kind of game. The Jets will bring pressure in this one, so Brady’s presnap reads are a huge key.

That said, if the Patriots are “on time” with their offense, the offensive line isn’t going to have to worry about prolonged blocking of the Jets’ front. The ball will be out in two seconds. But if the Jets are able to surprise Brady by taking his first read away and making him hold it an extra second or two, things could get dicey.

Personally I think the best gameplan for the Jets will be to load the field with defensive backs and use a rotating combination of Richardson, Williams and Wilkerson as the pass rushers, leaving Harrison in a reduced role. Dare the Patriots to run, but don’t allow short passes without punishment and sure tackling.

The key is making Brady’s protection hold up against just three rushers and forcing him to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. The big hope with this gameplan is stopping the run with a reduced number of bigs in the box. 

Lots of questions this week about how the Jets will match their corners, but I think it will be mix and match depending on the down. Some are curious about Revis on Gronk, but I think that’s something the Jets will want to avoid. Forcing him to tackle Gronk is not going to be ideal. More likely is Revis on Edelman, as they’re very familiar with each other.

But the biggest problem for the Jets might be Dion Lewis. As we saw last week, Gronk and Edelman can be taken away, but the Jets don’t have a clear answer for Lewis, especially if the Pats spread them out, forcing Davis or Harris out into space to cover the shifty running back one-on-one. You might recall Danny Woodhead having some big games against the Jets for similar reasons.

The other two big keys are Amendola and LaFell (as signs are pointing to him being activated for his first game of the season). No one is talking about them, but they’ve both been clutch compliments to Gronk and Edelman. If Buster Skrine is out (which it looks like he will be) the Jets corner depth will take a hit and open up chances for Amendola especially.

But what it all boils down to is patience for the offense. The Jets will make some plays, but if Brady can extend plays in the pocket while the Jets are rushing three and dropping eight, he’ll make his share of throws. If they get him off balance early it could be a grind for the offense this week.

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Defensive Gameplan

We’ve seen plenty of Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for a bunch of yards against a passive defense waiting for him to throw interceptions, which he always did.

Brandon Marshall has 37 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns already, but my primary concern is Chris Ivory and the running game. That’s why I believe it’s key that Dont’a Hightower plays this week. The dropoff in run defense with Freeny and Mayo is too severe and puts so much pressure on Collins.

If Sheard can’t go it certainly hurts as well, but that could open the door for Trey Flowers to make his debut. Pass rush isn’t the issue this week, it’s about stopping the run on early downs and forcing third-and-longs. That’s prime Fitzpatrick interception territory.

The size of Marshall and Eric Decker against our cornerbacks does concern me and it makes me wonder if we’ll once again use physical safety Patrick Chung in more of a cornerback role this week. Butler should go hard at Marshall and give him problems. Logan Ryan saw some of Decker in 2013, that experience should help.

The wild card is my boo Dominique Easley because the Jets haven’t had to deal with a Patriots defense that had an explosive defensive lineman like him before. Easley’s so disruptive and is just hitting his stride. He made a number of key plays last week in big situations and this is a chance for Easley to take it to the next level.

Most of all I just hope the Patriots coverages stay aggressive. For the most part they’ve been a man team again this year and I’d prefer to keep that going rather than sitting back in zone and giving Fitzpatrick the quick easy passes he thrives on.

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Win First Down

The Jets offense is going to be severely limited if they’re not picking up yardage on the ground with Chris Ivory early. But if Ivory is ripping off five or six yards on first down they’ll start rolling. While this points to more Siliga/Branch inside to start, the progression of Easley, Brown and Hicks was showing up last week so there’s no need to get away from the interior rotation. The question might be if Ninkovich and Chandler Jones can hold up all day without Sheard to spell them a bit. If Sheard can’t go, getting Trey Flowers into his first game action might be a necessity and he could bring some excitement with his physical play. How soon we forget he was the best defensive rookie in the preseason.

2. Put The Game On Fitzpatrick

This of course is directly related to winning fist down but the other way to accomplish this is to get an early lead. The Jets offense is far more effective playing from in front. If they’re forced to throw the ball 40+ times chances are they’re going to lose. In a way it’s the same gameplan the Jets should try on Brady. Take away the quick throws, make him digest the defense and put the ball downfield. That’s not Fitzpatrick’s game so that’s the game we have to make him play.

3. Patience On Offense

The Jets defense is talented and is going to make plays, but what makes the Patriots so tough is how patient and relentless they are. It might take some time to lock in on what the Jets are doing. They might get to Brady a couple times. Maybe even force a turnover. But it’s always just a matter of time before the Pats offense starts clicking. While an early touchdown drive would be ideal to put pressure on the Jets offense, countering the Jets aggressiveness over the course of the game is a big key.

4. Don’t Forget to Run

The Jets have the best run defense in the league, so it might be tempting to just spread them out and let Brady go to work with the scalpel. But with the Jets likely to go with a defensive back-heavy gameplan, it’s important to keep handing the ball off to Blount and Lewis. Even quick screens on the perimeter serve the same purpose – keeping the Jets from dictating. Force them to adjust. And when the time is right, pick up the tempo and take away any attempts at complex blitz schemes they might want to employ.

5. Win

This is always my fifth key because it’s the only thing that really matters. This game is really important for the Patriots because if they don’t win now the odds are higher that the division will still be in doubt when they have to end the year with back-to-back road trips to the Jets and Dolphins to end the year. We want those games to be meaningless, but holding serve at home in the division is the number one goal heading into the season. The next two games will tell us a lot about the 2015 season, and putting down a worthy rival like the Jets would be a good way to silence the crowd saying the Patriots haven’t played anyone good yet.