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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 at Dallas Cowboys

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The Patriots are done with their early bye week and back in action against the injury-depleted Dallas Cowboys. Yes, this is far from the Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant matchup it might’ve looked like early last summer. Now it’s
Tom Brady
vs. Brandon Weeden
, Jason Witten and not much else on either side of the ball.

Still, the Cowboys took the Saints to overtime last weekend, and now hosting a Patriots team that is coming off their bye week could translate to a closer game than the Pats -8.5 line might indicate.

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Here’s the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

The potential loss of Sean Lee looms large in this one for the Cowboys as their defense looked in disarray after he left the Saints game with a concussion. The Patriots offense knows how to expose defensive miscommunication unlike any other team in the league, so the Cowboys must be prepared for the breakneck pace of the Pats.

There’s really no reason for the Patriots to do anything other than what they’ve been doing – attack through the air and don’t stop until a lead is established. That means rolling our Dion Lewis for a large role once again and then handing the ball off to LeGarrette Blount
to seal the win.

It’s the Rob Gronkowski
and Julian Edelman
quick-passing show, with Danny Amendola coming through with clutch catches when called upon. No one has had an answer for Gronk/Edelman yet and it doesn’t seem like Dallas has the personnel to come up with something innovative.

The answer isn’t hard to see, it’s just nearly impossible to execute. The cornerbacks must must must disrupt the timing of the offense by jamming Gronk and Edelman at the line.

The hot routes must be taken away with creative zone drops by the defensive front. And finally Dallas must then be able to generate some kind of pass rush with only three rushers. 

Or perhaps the Cowboys should load up against the pass early on and allow the Pats to run on them early. If Brady and the passing game don’t establish an early rhythm perhaps they will continue to sputter.

None of these are airtight and easily executable answers, they’re simply the only things left to possibly try against the Patriots’ offense outside of just hoping they come out flat and stay flat.

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This one’s for you, Greg Hardy.

Defensive Gameplan

Despite being somewhat of a punchline, Brandon Weeden looked decent in spurts against the Saints, but this one has all the makings of a “make Weeden beat us” gameplan.

Which means that the Pats might actually try to stop the run this week. Generally this would mean more of Siliga and Branch, while working in Brown and Hicks (maybe) while Easley might be reserved for third down pass rushing duties only.

Though Easley does make a pretty good impact in the run game, not with size, but with his disruption. He’s one guy to monitor but the other is Jerod Mayo, because if they’re going to be in more regular (4 DBs) personnel, that could mean a spike for his playing time. 

I’ve been tough on Mayo over the bye week because I just don’t see him moving like he used to. Maybe it will come back, but the clock it ticking. This week might be the first time we get a sense of how extensively they’re willing to use Mayo or if Jon Bostic was brought in because they don’t think they can lean on Mayo yet.

Overall the Patriots are just about fully healthy this week so we’ll also get a sense of any changes in the secondary they felt needed to be made after some self scouting over the bye. Could Jordan Richards start to see more time? Or how about Justin Coleman? Is Bradley Fletcher going to get another shot?

I’d expect a little more zone defense this week as this is where we’ll see if the new pass rush rotation and depth can pay off. That means Chandler/Ninkovich/Sheard generating push against a very good offensive line. It should be a good barometer of where the pass rush is at.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Pretty simple really, stop the run, make Brandon Weeden beat us by putting together long, sustained drives through the air without turning the ball over. Does he have that kind of a game in him? All NFL quarterbacks have one or two, even Mark Sanchez did, so you can never rule it out. But it should be a tall task for him, especially if the Pats take away Jason Witten.

2. Keep the Offense Rolling: I used to think there were games where you’d want to come out and “establish the run” but those days are gone. What you need to establish is moving the ball and getting points. There’s little gained by running LeGarrette Blount into a primed defensive front seven only to see him gain 2-3 yards. Wait to roll the Blount until the defense has been loosened up and is on their heels a bit. Get the ball out quick, establish the lead and put even more pressure on Weeden to throw.

3. Take Away Witten: Not a secret that Witten is the best weapon left at Weeden’s disposal and while I don’t like sticking Jamie Collins in coverage too much, he’s the best tight cover guy the Pats have so he’ll see plenty of the reliable veteran tight end. I’d prefer it’s not a blitz game for Collins, instead it would be better to see how well we can generate pressure with just the front four, in whatever combination.

4. Stay Healthy: Maybe I shouldn’t put this as a key but it’s been almost all I can think about this week. The injury bug has hit the NFL iron hard this year and it seems like thus far the Pats are the only team to avoid its wrath. We’re hitting a point in the season where we usually get whacked with an injury too – Wilfork 2013, Mayo 2013/2014 are just a couple that jump to mind. Really I don’t think it’s a stretch to say if the Pats stay healthy there almost no AFC team that can stop them from getting to the Super Bowl, but there’s still a long road to go.

5. Win: How fast will I turn the page from the Cowboys to the Colts if the Pats get an injury-free win? Almost immediately. We all know how much hype there will be over the next week and I can’t wait to get on it. Still the Pats have been almost flawless for the first three games, and they’re somewhat due for some flat play. Maybe they’ll be like the 2007 team and avoid it or be able to overcome it, but I won’t be surprised if this game is closer than everyone thinks.

Where my NFL go?

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Maybe the bye week has gone to my head but is anyone else finding the NFL completely unenjoyable these first few weeks (outside of the Patriots’ games of course)?

Last night’s debacle by the refs is just the cherry on top of what has been a gross start to the NFL season. Big name players getting hurt, teams that were traditionally good are sucking, the new PAT rule is totally in the kickers’ heads and just generally the product on the field has been overwhelming dog shit.

Add in the constant appearances of DraftKings and FanDuel everywhere you look or watch, and now they’re under investigation just four weeks into the season. I don’t know what’s going on but it feels like the NFL is starting to collapse under the weight of their own arrogance and mismanagement.

I’d like to think it all relates to Deflategate. That that controversy was the straw that broke the NFL’s back and now seemingly every team that came out against the Pats or for the NFL is having a run of bad luck, including the overall NFL itself. Despite a ton of weird coincidences, even I can’t truly believe that.

But this is the course the NFL set and really it started in 2004 when every rule change began to be aimed at helping the offense and scoring. This also fed into the fantasy football explosion, but as the years have passed and college football has produced fewer and fewer quarterbacks who are ready for the pro game, the league has become about one thing – having a great QB and really nothing else matters.

We can even look at the 2010 Patriots as an example. They had one of the worst defenses in league if not for all the interceptions they grabbed and they still ended up going 14-2. Think about that, the crappy quarterbacks they faced essentially handed the games to them because they couldn’t stop themselves from turning the ball over.

Now the Patriots travel to Dallas this weekend and while I’m always excited for any Patriots game, this one looks a million times more of a mismatch than we ever thought it would be.

As recently as last year, a Lions-Seahawks games on MNF would have been a well-anticipated matchup. Instead it was largely unwatchable, especially when Detroit had the ball, and then it ended with a great defensive play getting overshadowed by a blown call that decided the game.

I obviously am not a fan of the NFL management and what they’ve done to the game, but it was always something we just went along with because the product on the field was competitive enough across the league that it was enjoyable. 

But now it seems like something has changed. Maybe it’s karma coming around, and not just because of Deflategate, but because of all of the NFL’s duplicity over the years when it came to concussions, domestic violence and its heavy-handed punishments that were consistently tone deaf and only made worse when the NFL had the chance to correct them.

What I do know is that if this course around the league continues and the Patriots stay healthy it’s unlikely any team is going to stop them on the way to San Francisco. They might have a hiccup or two in the coming weeks, but in a weird down year like this, it’s hard not to think it’s just setting the table for another Lombardi run.

At least the Super Bowl will probably be good, assuming it’s the Patriots and either Green Bay or Seattle. Otherwise it will be a snoozer.

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Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” Defense in One Simple Chart (2001-2015)

Much has been made over the years of Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy on defense. Now it is an easy excuse when the defense gives up a ton of yards but still win the game because Tom Brady scored more points. 

But as we can see this has always been Belichick’s philosophy, even going back to 2003 and 2004, years everyone remembers as the prime of defense in New England. 

The chart above breaks down the Bend side, including yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive, and the Break side, including points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive.

As you can see the Patriots are rarely in the top-10 for the yards (twice) and plays (three times) they give up every drive. But when it comes to the points and turnovers, they’re almost always in the top half of the league, and usually top five or ten.

Even last year’s over-romanticized defense gave up sustained drives but when it came to the red zone they closed the door.

This speaks to Belichick’s philosophy of playing disciplined but not over-aggressive defense. They might not get off the field as quickly as we all might like, but by forcing the offense to earn every yard, more often than not they get a stop or a turnover.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/bill-belichicks-bend-dont-break-defense-in-one/

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Patriots Football Outsiders DVOA Update (going back to 2001)

Usually I wait until the fourth game of the season to post any long-term stat perspective but since the bye week comes early this year I’m putting this up now. Remember these numbers are reflective of how three games unfolded and each’s specific gameplan. So the ugly run defense numbers aren’t really quite as horrible as they look. 

But clearly the offense picked up almost exactly where they left off last year and gasp, the pass defense has been top-10 so far. Yes against Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles but there was a time not so long ago when EVERYONE threw for 300 yards on the Pats.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-football-outsiders-dvoa-update-going/

Hump Day Pats Posits

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Plenty to talk about here on the bye week as we reset a bit. It’s a weird season because there’s not much to complain about yet and that has the Mazz’s and Volin’s of the world floundering. (Seriously Volin didn’t like the defensive gameplan that gave up 10 points that could entirely be connected to one blown play and two third-down stops that were negated by a fumble and a penalty.)

Personally I think you can be a homer and support your team but still be critical of their performances. And there’s more to be a fan/blogger etc. than being critical… there’s understanding the schemes and how the coaches are attacking and defending. So while there hasn’t been a Kansas City game for everyone to freak out about there’s still plenty to analyze.

First, there’s been plenty of can the Pats go 16-0 and as I said earlier this week I really don’t want to. I think it makes it harder to win the Super Bowl and I’d prefer to have a motivating loss that exposes some weaknesses and ignites a fire for the team down the stretch.

Again, the NFL season is as much about attrition as anything else. And unfortunately the chances are slim that the Patriots are still as robust as they are right now. 

And yeah, the schedule looks manageable but think about all the losses or near losses to inferior teams over the years. The 2004 team’s loss to Miami sticks out. Not to mention near losses in 2013 to the Browns and Texans. And the Pats finish at Jets/at Dolphins. Those places are never a slam dunk regardless of what the teams are playing for.

So you won’t hear much 16-0 talk around here. We’ve been there, done that and all it taught us was that it’s only the Super Bowl that matters.

I continue to be impressed by Jordan Richards
 in his limited duty against the Jags.  Yeah, Mazz thinks you can’t learn anything from a game like last weekend’s but I think Richards is a prime example of learning something. He reminds me a lot of Patrick Chung
 with his aggressiveness, but the big question is whether or not he has the speed to play on the back end to bump Harmon. We could be seeing more and more of him.

Speaking of rookies, can you believe we’re still waiting on Trey Flowers
 to make his debut? He was possibly the best rookie in the preseason  but has been under wraps the first three weeks. Defensive end depth is really good right now but sooner or later they have to get his feet wet and I’m excited to see what he can do.

My thoughts keep drifting to Dominique Easley
 and just how much he could elevate this defense. His burst off the snap is back and he’s flashing the kind of disruption I’ve been dreaming of since this blog started in 2010. But what has me wondering is how to truly harness his potential. They had him in his best spot – three technique – vs. the Jags, but his burst seems most effective not when it’s clearly a passing down but when the OL is trying to stunt. That opens the gaps for him and he totally screws their entire operation up. But when he’s asked to go one-on-one and the OL gets set it seems like Easley has trouble getting free and getting to the quarterback. That could change and he’s technically still green, but it’s an area to focus on in the coming weeks.

Malcom Brown has been somewhat underwhelming out of the gate, not that it’s a cause for major concern because he has made a couple plays and looked strong in spurts, but I’d like to see a splash play sooner than later from him.

The scary thing for the rest of the NFL is how well the Pats’ drafts since 2010 have turned out. They’re on a crazy roll and the trio of Andrews-Mason-Jackson is exactly what the Hoodie ordered this year. 

New podcast coming tonight as well as a some All-22 Offensive thoughts from the Jags game. And also Frenz and I will be reuniting for a podcast this weekend. Looking forward to talking to my old podmate!

Patriots All-22 Defensive Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

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In some ways the Patriots’ moves on defense this season have made my life a lot easier because of how mix-and-match they’ve gone. Yes we could keep track of every defensive front combination they’re using but that loses the forest for the trees.

The big picture view is that the Patriots defense is finally about generating pass rush with athleticism. For all the talk of how much of step backward the Pats would be taking without Revis and Browner, I think they “additions/progression” of Easley, Sheard and Malcolm Butler will actually make this a better overall defense by the end of the year.

The top photo is a third down that came against the Jaguars, but very well sums up the personnel and disguise the Patriots are using now in passing situations. Chandler Jones
 is the one with his hand down shaded over the center. Some combination of Sheard, Collins, Hightower, Ninkovich and maybe Chung are blitzing, but through three games we’ve seen just about all of the drop into coverage as well.

As I wrote in yesterday’s Posits, Easley is almost too fast off the ball sometimes. This isn’t entirely different than Jamie Collins
’ rookie year where he needed to learn to be patient because his world class athleticism would allow him to make plays that he let come to him. 

I’m not sure what the answer is with Easley other than experience and knowing when he needs to be in the backfield asap without opening up a crease in the running game.

Maybe this is too bold of a statement but I don’t see any universe where I’d rather have Darrelle Revis over Malcolm Butler
. Butler isn’t as good as Revis yet, but don’t tell him that. The sky is the limit for Butler who is constantly around the ball. He still overplays some throws at times, but how many potential interceptions could he have this season already? Six? Seven?

Jabaal Sheard has been everything we thought he could be for this defense. He allows them to pull back on Ninkovich and Chandler Jones a bit, but through three games he’s been better than both of them and played more snaps than both of them against the Jags. He’s got two sacks but has drawn four penalties.

Coverage-wise the Pats are slowly getting a bit more complex, but remain a base man defense team. Against the Jags we saw some significant steps in disguising coverages, one that almost led to a Butler interception.

Overall, it all goes back to great coverage can only help a pass rush so much, but if you had to choose between the two, you have to pick pass rush every time and it’s clear that that’s what the Patriots have done this season.

Yes, we’ve seen some all LB packages at times over the years, but it’s never been as dedicated as this. And it’s not like you can just run on them when they go light because they’re all big and tough and able to hold up against offensive linemen.

What we’re seeing right now is a defense starting to hit its prime, just as we saw in 2003, where there was the perfect mix of experience and youth with talent at all levels.

Compare the personnel now to 2010 and there is no comparison. It’s an easy talking point to say things like Tom Brady has to carry this team, but that’s really not the case anymore. Brady has overcome a full turnover on defense in 2008-2009 and now they have a number of high-round picks who are incredibly talented.

It’s time for this defense to enter the conversation as one of the most talented groups in the NFL.

Pats Posits: 3-0 and on to the Bye Week!

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The New England Patriots are off to one of their more impressive starts of recent memory, pounding the Jags and moving to 3-0 as they enter their early bye week of the 2015 season.

The Pats’ often look a little choppy early in the year but this season they’ve come out of the gate picking up right where they left off winning the Super Bowl last season. Now the comparisons to 2007′s 16-0 squad are starting to pour in and I think it’s another case where we need to Ignore the Noise.

A lot can happen over the next four months and I don’t need to tell anyone how the NFL season is as much about attrition as it is about talent. Yes, the Pats have looked like the AFC favorite through three games, but there’s just such a long way to go and so much can happen. 

Honestly, 16-0 was exhausting for the the 2007 team and had they broken the pressure with a loss, like one they should’ve lost in Baltimore, it might’ve had them a little fresher once they got to the Super Bowl. Put it this way, we’ve been there, done that with 16-0 and I don’t really have much interest in doing it again. Let’s just worry about homefield advantage in the playoffs and the rest will take care of itself.

On to the Posits…

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First, congratulations to Tom Brady on TD pass number 400. I haven’t missed a single game since 2005 so I’ve seen the vast majority of his TDs and I feel lucky as a fan to root for a player who has been so dominant. Now if we can only understand what Danny Amendola was thinking giving the ball away to a random fan. And to think he almost looked ready to launch it into the 300s after he initially scored.

I just don’t know what else to write about Dion Lewis, has there ever been a player who’s kicked around the league and then suddenly looks like the best third down back in football? He’s incredibly slippery and almost always makes the first defender miss. Not to mention he always gets at least two more yards than he should. Such a fun player to watch and if he can stay healthy for all 16 games he’ll be the perfect addition to the Gronk/Edelman aspect of the offense.

One of my bigger concerns (and it wasn’t even a major one yet) was the run defense and I thought they looked a lot better yesterday against the Jags. Simply put, guys were getting off blocks and winning one-on-ones. Encouraging to see them make progress in this area.

Thank Hoodie they benched Bradley Fletcher (it was much deserved), but they also gave Tarrell Brown the day off which meant Logan Ryan saw a lot of snaps and rookie Justin Coleman made his debut. Ryan continued to look up and down as he has throughout his career but Coleman stepped right in and didn’t look out of place in is first action of his career. I’d expect to see him get some time in the slot over Ryan after the bye.

A lot of the lower end guys on the depth chart saw action yesterday and none impressed me more than Jordan Richards who was active and physical in his first extended snaps on defense. I always laugh at those who think the Patriots had a guy rated too high on their board. The simple fact is that a thinking defense like the Patriots’ needs thinking players and sometimes when you merge the two you see a player who is much better than he was in college where it’s more about physical talent.

Dominique Easley was once again flying off the ball but watching live I felt he was almost more effective against the run, though he had his moments against the pass. A strange problem is that sometimes Easley is so fast off the ball it creates creases in the running game and leads to big runs. But can you really tell a guy to not get into the backfield so fast?

Easley has been incorporated in a very useful way, generating disruption on early downs. The Pats used to get killed when teams tried to pass on 1st and 2nd down because their linemen were two gapping and got no pressure. Now they put Easley in there and he offsets that problem. Meanwhile on third down they’re now going with all linebackers to rush the passer. Only thing I wonder is why it took Belichick this long to go pass-rush happy. It should pay dividends.

The picture is a lot clearer to me now as far as the run game goes. The short passing game with Lewis and the slot receivers is now the early-down running game equivalent.

LeGarrette Blount is instead the hammer to bring in once the lead is established. But I don’t think we’ll see a lot of Blount early in games unless the Pats really think the opposition’s run defense stinks.

Malcolm Butler had one bad play yesterday but otherwise continues to look like a top flight NFL cornerback. I kind of enjoy that he keeps making one inconsequential mistake per game that will keep the pressure on him. The job he’s done stepping in as a starter has been remarkable and far above what even the most positive Patriots fans might’€™ve expected.

Big question right now is what happens to David Andrews once Bryan Stork returns and I’m trying not to spend too much time worrying about it. But I’m very curious to see if Andrews can play some guard after working there a bit this summer. If he can make that switch the Pats suddenly have four very, very good young interior offensive linemen, a spot they badly needed depth in recent seasons.