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analysis

Patriots vs. Steelers All-22 Review: Defense Edition

September 14, 2015 by Mike Dussault

All in all, not a great night for the Patriots’ defense, but they’re a lot better than they showed in this one. Generally it was the same old early season problems they usually have – not playing on the same page, not getting off blocks, missing tackles. It’s really how it looked vs. KC last year, but there’s no reason to panic. 

The Pats were willing to concede a lot in the running game. Once Easley went down it was telling that they went to Grissom for most of the rest of the night. If they were worried about stopping the run it would’ve been easy to put Siliga/Branch/Brown in there in some combination. No, they wanted to have athletes to pass rush in there, for better or worse. Doesn’t mean it will continue and I think Easley is a much better option for this kind of defensive philosophy than an undersized rookie like Grissom. The Steelers took the bait and ran over and over against the defensive right side.

Defensively not much changed from last year in terms of coverage. It was almost all man except for long situations where they’d play it safe in zone. They were slightly less aggressive off the line, pulling back to off man more often than we saw last year. But for those of us who thought they were going back to zone, they didn’t here and thank Hoodie they didn’t because playing man defense in today’s NFL is vital. I’m still not sure how well they’ll be able to do it against the deeper passing teams, but we’ll see.

The pressure was mostly non-existent and it was clear they were missing a dominant inside player like Wilfork. Overall I thought Siliga was probably the best DT followed by Brown and then Branch, who looked slow to me out there. Hopefully he really didn’t drop off the cliff that much, but he looked like he could be gone if that play continues. 

Each of the LB/DEs had their moments good and bad, but generally they were all pretty average, and some of that is because one guy was doing too much. Hightower, Collins, Ninkovich are all a lot better than they played in this one.

Here’s my notes on each defensive possession while reviewing the All-22 film.

Drive #1: 9 plays, 54 yards. Missed Field Goal

This one was about how you might expect the first defensive series of the season to go. Guys overplaying, not getting off blocks nor defeating blocks at contact. They used a fair amount of three safeties, with Chung in the box essentially playing linebacker covering the tight end. Mixed in some Cover-2 Man, Cover-1 Robber Man, and Cover-2 zone on third-and-long. Easley showed good penetration before getting hurt, glad he’s only supposed to be out a week or two, though I’d rest him until Dallas.

Drive #2: 6 plays, 24 yards. Punt

Branch in for Brown, Grissom in for injured Easley and it would seem to indicate that instead of the “double nose” the Pats are now more interested in having a one-gapper defensive tackle in there. Grissom showed some strength, despite being undersized for this role. It would be Easley or Chris Jones probably down the line. On third down the went Cover-1 Man, a popular coverage last year and not one we expected to see much of this year. We were wrong. Up front there was no defensive tackle really, unless you count Grissom as one. They’re really going athletic with things. Nice sack on second down by Hightower. Once again the coverage is Cover-1 Man with High on a delayed blitz where he just juked the center and finished Roethlisberger off. On third down they drop everyone into zone and get off the field.

Drive #3: 7 plays, 52 yards. Missed Field Goal

Sheard in for Nink (yay on getting him some rest), Siliga and Grissom the DTs now. Grissom gets some pass rush to force an incompletion on second down. On third down, Siliga comes off, Nink comes on. This is a pure pass rush front we’ve all dreamed about, but no one gets pressure. 42-yard pass to DHB. Wasn’t horrible coverage by Fletcher, he ran well with DHB despite not getting a jam on him. Just enough separation and a great throw from Roethlisberger. Harmon was favoring Brown’s side and had no chance to get all the way over to break up the pass. Sheard losing contain on the next down was surprising, he seemed a little flat compared to what we saw in preseason. Him and Siliga make up for it next down, stuffing a run for minimal game. Siliga has popped the most of Brown/Branch heavy DT spot so far. Good double-A gap pressure as they send 91 and 54 forcing a quick throw on third down. They sent 5, dropped Nink in the hot read. 

Drive #4: 11 plays, 57 yards. Field Goal

First play of the drive and the Steelers run the Super Bowl INT play (you know which one), right at Butler but he’s just a moment late. That would’ve been a game-winning Super Bowl touchdown had that been February. Brown back in at DT, Grissom still at the other DT spot, showing how much the Pats were daring the Steelers to run. Steelers pick up a first on 3rd down with a 37-yard pass to Brown. Butler just whiffs on any jam and then can’t catch up. Pitt runs the same Super Bowl pick play again on 4th-and-3 and again they pick up the first down. On the third down stop before the field goal the Pats went to Cover-3 man, something we haven’t seen much of before. Seemed like it helped confuse Roethlisberger who pumped then threw incomplete.

Second Half

Drive #5: 7 plays, 80 yards. Touchdown

Tone on this drive was set immediately with a 28 yard run up the defensive left side, the side the Steelers rightly targeted most in the running game. Not a great look from Alan Branch who was slow off the ball then easily pushed out of the way. Not Ninkovich’s best game either, struggled getting off blocks quickly enough. Defense fought down to third down at the goal line but couldn’t hold. Just a sloppy first defensive possession to start the half. Needed one of those “do your job” speeches from BB because the entire defense was out of sync.

Drive #6: 13 plays, 67 yards. Field Goal

Another 12 yard running play to the defensive right. Pats not adjusting to this makes you think they wanted the Steelers to run. One adjustment though here comes moving Siliga to 0-tech NT, Sheard and Chandler playing DT. This allows Siliga to control the A gaps and puts reinforcements on the B/C gaps. Wheaton’s 26-yarder was good coverage but no pressure from the three-man rush. Despite being so ugly, getting the red zone stop here was a highlight of the game after Chung’s PI set the Steelers up 1st-and-goal fro the 1. First down – McCourty/Collins recover from play action to break up pass. Second down – Siliga with a nice slide move around his block. Third down – shift forces false start. Third down again – draw snuffed out by Sheard.

Drive #7: 3 plays, 7 yards. Punt

The goalline stop must’ve helped spark this possession because they looked a little better here, playing within the defense. A shift to Cove2 Off man was a bit of a twist here, as the Pats backed off the crossing routes underneath and it helped them force two incompletions.

Drive #8: 2 plays, 18 yards. Interception

Simple corner route to Wheaton was a good start on this drive with the Pats again going Cover-2 Off Man. Harmon was the deep safety on his interception play but was running for the route at the snap. Great break on the ball that looked to be a little underthrown. Fletcher had great technique to totally cover this pass as well.

Drive #9: 12 plays, 70 yards. Touchdown

Patriots only rushing three guys here and it wasn’t very effective, but the two deep safeties only allowed passes underneath so they were okay. Sheard finally gets a sack coming off the edge. Classic Patriots last drive, good thing they were up by two scores. The effectiveness was in draining the clock.

Filed Under: Film Review, Uncategorized Tagged With: all-22, analysis, new england patriots

Pats Posits: A win is a win in September

September 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Had hoped to have these posted a lot sooner today, but unfortunately one of my little Pats padawans woke up immediately after the end of the game with the croup, which sounds like your kid can’t breathe. A trip to the ER and a sleepless night later he is totally fine and I’m finally able to process last night’s win. 

Obviously plenty to talk about, but it’s important not to overreact in September. Not that that will stop most of you because overreacting and complaining is what we Patriots fans do, but there was plenty to like and build upon last night so let’s stick with the positive.

I just can’t get over how good Brady/Gronk are and I don’t know how you go into a game against the Patriots without saying we won’t let Gronk beat us. At least that’s what I know Belichick would do if he was facing the Patriots offense. But the thing is I’m pretty sure Gronk is unstoppable no matter what you do.

Easing Mayo in – Not sure why I just assumed Mayo would hop right in and play a ton, but it’s clear they’re going to bring him back slowly and that makes a ton of sense. I don’t think we’ll truly know the defense’s potential until they’re fully comfortable using Mayo a ton, but I also think there will be more of a rotation against heavy passing teams.

Butler has huge potential – Yeah, Butler gave up some catches to Antonio Brown but I really like him as a cornerback and is unquestionably the most promising young corner we’ve had since Asante. Even on the completions he gives up he’s right there and the ball just somehow sneaks through. That’s the same thing we saw with Revis. Not that Butler is Revis, but to go man-to-man on a receiver like Brown right out of the gate shows what the Pats think of him.

Pass rush? – If there was one thing that was a little disconcerting last night it was the extended periods of no pass rush, especially in the third quarter. In some ways it reminded me of last year’s infamous Chiefs game where defenders were in position they just couldn’t get off blocks. So it will improve. But it was strange watching Sheard/Chandler/etc. get easily handled at times.

Easley – I’ve been Team Easley since the first time I saw his college tape, but this new injury really took the wind out of my sails with him. I don’t subscribe to “injury prone” very often, but with all the surgeries and rehab you just have to wonder if his hip was weakened during the process somehow. Didn’t look like any kind of hit to it or anything, he was just engaged and crumbled. Not a good sign and I think he’s probably out for a while. This is a headline bummer from the game and while I can’t call him a “bust” just yet, he has a long road ahead of him to prove we can rely on him.

Red zone stops – Say what you will about the Patriots defense, but they looked like the Patriots defense last night, for better or worse. And that boils down to red zone stops. The goal line stand was a game changing sequence, so you have to love the fight they showed. 

Dion Lewis – You could just tell in the preseason that Lewis had the confidence of a veteran and a shifty explosiveness that resulted in a lot of yards-after-contact. I had a feeling he’d get thrust right into the passing back role and he looked right at home. He’s going to be a big part of the offense this year, but I’m curious how Cadet and White will fit in as well. Nice to see a 33 out there again too.

Edelman so good – Edelman is so relentless and such a tough cover. He looked like he just played the Super Bowl last week and picked up right where he left off. Really praying he can stay healthy because with him/Gronk/Brady this passing offense will be unstoppable for long stretches this season.

More coming in the next few days as I review the All-22 and pick the GIFs that defined the game. For now we’re officially on to 2015.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Preview and Prediction

September 10, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Preview and Prediction

My preview of tonight’s game is up on Athlon.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots

NFL Films’ Do Your Job Review

September 10, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I didn’t think NFL Films would ever top the Bill Belichick episode of A Football Life where they followed Belichick for the 2009 season and got all kinds of behind the scenes access. 

But Do Your Job did just that.

Most all, after months of the Patriots being called cheaters, it was nice to see what really makes the Patriots so good. Not giving opposing team’s warm Gatorade or stealing playbooks, but old fashioned hard work and unparalleled preparation and anticipation.

While BB’s A Football Life gave some glimpses behind the curtain, we often felt like a fly on the wall. In Do Your Job we weren’t flies, BB and the coaching staff were actually talking to us and telling us what happened with the kind of candor you’re never in a million years going to get from the everyday media that follows the team.

Maybe it’s wrong to start at the climax, but the entire last act built around Malcolm Butler’s interception was purely amazing. Not only did Ernie Adams hold up his diagram of the last play the Seahawks would run, but they showed the practice footage of the Patriots running it and Malcolm getting beat on it.

As Adams said, it doesn’t always work out quite so perfectly but this is one time it did and the fact that it happened when the Pats were just one yard away from another horrible Super Bowl defeat is astounding.

This is the real Bill Belichick we saw, not his stonewall-the-media persona, but the brilliant coach who has such an innate feel to the game he seems to know what they’ll need for a game well before the game happens. And oh yes, he also has a biting sense of humor.

His uncanny ability to know what the Pats might need to win was on display with the segments on the tricky formations they ran against the Ravens as well as the double pass.

Most of all, it showed what an art form playcalling really can be not only within a game, but over the course of a season. Imagine if the Pats had burned the double pass in a meaningless second half against Kansas City with the game well out of reach! Luckily Amendola had the foresight to tell Edelman not to show it when they knew the play was going to LaFell.

Another talking point that Do Your Jon destroys is that Belichick has too many “yes men”. Now this was also destroyed in David Halbertam’s Education of a Coach, but once again we see how Belichick takes input from everyone and isn’t afraid to be challenged.

So many out there want to diminish what the Patriots have accomplished over the last 15 years, but Do Your Job makes it abundantly clear the reason for their success is they are a finely tuned football machine from the head coach (who has full support of his owner and full control of the team) right down to the 53rd man on the roster.

Belichick not only knows what it will take to win each week, but he has the tools in his coaching staff and players to execute it. One moment I liked was Josh McDaniels mentioning that putting in a play the night before a game in a hotel ballroom is no problem for the Patriot players who never blink. Yes, the Super Bowl-winning touchdown play was one of those last-minute additions.

Some quick hit other thoughts:

– Great credit for the unreal play by Hightower on first-and-goal just before Butler’s interception. 

– Loved BB really opening up on what he thought of Arrington being “streaky”. Guess after the Super Bowl they were done with that streakiness.

– Nice to hear every Patriots coach sum up that they were feeling exactly the same thing I was feeling after the Kearse catch. Especially Mr. Kraft’s “we have no f’ing luck.”

– Yes, I studied the Pats’ depth chart and was proud that it looked very similar to the one I keep. Though I certainly didn’t have Tyler Gaffney as the top pass-catching running back at any point.

– Great credit to Browner for the Butler interception as well. He knew what was coming and never let the receiver off the line. That interception doesn’t happen without Browner.

I could go on for thousands of words about this special. There are so many interesting moments, none of which was more interesting than actually hearing Ernie Adams speak about what he does. And it wasn’t just Adams but all the Patriots’ assistants who are rarely more than just faces we see on the sidelines during games. All of them came off incredibly focused and intense about their jobs, and it’s easy to see why they are where they are.

If this was the offseason I’d break down this whole special shot-for-shot, and maybe I still will someday, but it’s game day and time once again for the New England Patriots to DO THEIR JOB!

You can see the entire Do Your Job special here, password pinkstripes.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, bill belichick, do your job, nfl films

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

September 9, 2015 by Mike Dussault

New England Patriots football is finally back and which also means I’m back with my gameplan articles (CHECK OUT LAST SEASON’S HERE).  The first game of the season is always pretty ugly and there are plenty of unknown elements that cannot be predicted. That’s what makes it fun and scary.

Missed tackles, blown assignments, and just a general lack of rhythm tend to always be present in week one, and often into weeks two and three as well.

Complicating matters is how the Patriots love to experiment in the early part of the season. Throwing random guys into random roles to see how they do and if they flash any potential.

So what we’re left with is hoping the Pats can hang on to the ball and stay frosty no matter how up and down their performance is. 

Here’s the gameplan…

image

Offensive Gameplan

Let’s start at the areas of uncertainty headed into this first game. The biggest one is along the interior of the offensive line where Bryan Stork will be out with a concussion. So what does that leave the Pats with? Maybe Mason-Wendell-Jackson. Maybe Kline-Wendell-Jackson. Or maybe, as Greg Bedard said on Felger and Mazz Wendell-Andrews-Jackson. Any way you slice it, there’s at least one rookie in there and very possibly two and that’s a major area of concern. Personally I’d go the veteran route with Kline and Wendell.

Second comes the weaponry and what combination they’ll go with. LaFell is out, so that means you’re looking at Dobson or Amendola starting with Edelman. I’d expect a rotation of the two. Mostly I just want to see them unleash the Twin Towers of Gronk and Chandler, because that should give the Steelers a ton of problems. 

This isn’t the Steel Curtain anymore, their pass defense has been getting lit up since last year.

Then we look in the backfield, where they’ll likely give Brandon Bolden some action to start but expect Dion Lewis to be the guy who gets a lot of touches early on. Or could they unleash Travaris Cadet, who is fully healthy but played zero preseason games. He’s unique, more of a receiver than running back and I think the Pats have something special planned with him. Might be a week or two too early for Cadet, but he’ll have a big game in September.

The Pats liked to spread out LeBeau Steeler defense, will anything change now on either end? Because the Pats have pretty much had their way with the Steelers defense almost every time Brady’s faced them.

With the release of Jonas Gray and no LeGarrette Blount, it’s a good bet the Pats are going to throw the ball 50 times in this one. The quick throws should limit the pressure put on the interior offensive line, so expect Edelman and Amendola to play a big part in those throws. Pass protection from the inexperienced running backs will be a big factor.

image

Defensive Gameplan

Oh, am I excited to see this defense take the field! It’s just become more and more clear with each week how many different things this defense can merge into. Their front seven is dripping with athleticism and nearly impossible to decode at the line of scrimmage. Who’s two-gapping? Who’s blitzing? Who’s dropping? Who knows. And each player presents a unique problem whether you’ve got to block them or outrun them.

So the big question here in week one is predicting what they WILL do. Antonio Brown has to be the first focus and with Matavis Bryant out, there should be extra man power to deal with him. But you’d think Malcolm Butler with occasional safety help makes the most sense.

This is a good game to get a sense of the man/zone balance the Patriots will play this season. Expect some of the Nick Saban-esque zone on early downs, man on third down unless it’s long.

The biggest thing for this defense is winning one-on-one matchups. That’s what the Patriots defense hasn’t been able to consistently do since 2007, but now they have the pieces where they better start doing it. They have the size guys to eat up two blocks, but that puts the pressure on players like Easley/Hightower/Collins/Chandler/etc. to beat their single blocker. That’s what makes a great team pass rush.

Expect a healthy rotation of all four defensive tackles and don’t be surprised to see Ninkovich come off the field in passing situations for a front like Sheard-Easley-Chandler-Hightower, with Mayo and Collins at the linebacker spots.

Most critical to the defense is tackling. They haven’t been doing a lot of it before now but if they can consistently wrap and tackle they’ll force mistakes.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Play clean – Making tackles and not turning the ball over is usually 75 percent of winning but in week one it’s closer to 90 percent. There will be ugly plays. Brady’s gonna get sacked. Roethlisberger will hit a long pass. None of it will matter if they just don’t make the last critical mistake. 

2. Get Gronk’d – We can talk for hours about all the different things the Patriots might try to do, but the only one that really matters is getting Rob Gronkowski involved. He’s the best offensive player on the team now and getting the ball in his hands as much as possible will only help open up all other avenues of attack. Most interesting will be to see how Scott Chandler compliments Gronk and stresses the defensive coverages.

3. Disguise > Blitzing – Belichick is never a big blitzer, in fact they’ve been blitzing less and less since 2010 and that’s a good thing. The ideal is to win with four rushers and if you can do that consistently, you’ve got a great defense. One of the holdovers from the old 3-4 scheme they used to use more frequently, is the ability to disguise which linebacker is blitzing. The same principal is true and applies to not only the three linebackers, but the two defensive ends as well and sometimes even a defensive tackle. Send Hightower, Mayo, Ninkovich, Collins, Chandler, Sheard, Flowers, Easley after Roethlisberger at random times. Never let the Steelers get a bead on who the main rushers all. Keep them guessing and take advantage of the overall athleticism on the defense.

4. Contain and Tackle Roethlisberger – We’ve heard it plenty of times from Belichick that you must keep Roethlisberger contained in the pocket and then you must finish him off when you get hands on him. This isn’t easy of course but explosive plays happen when Ben is able to get out of the pocket and create after initial contact.

5. Win – With ten days before the next game in Buffalo and a late bye, getting a win and then a couple extra days off should do a lot of good for this team on a number of levels. The roster can then also be re-jiggered a bit as their current personnel seems directly aimed at Pittsburgh. Conference victories are always valuable in the grand scheme of things and knocking of a respectable Steelers team is just the sort of win that will put Deflategate and (unfortunately) the Super Bowl win truly behind the Patriots and focus them on 2015.

Filed Under: Gameplan Tagged With: 15wk1, 2015, analysis, gameplan, steelers

We’re on to… Spygate? Again?

September 8, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I took it slow over Labor Day weekend. With Deflategate appearing to be in the rearview mirror until at least after the season and the Patriots about to kickoff another season with a Super Bowl banner-hanging, it was nice to take a little break when it felt like there was non-stop Patriots news all offseason. 

But what do I wake up to? Both ESPN and SI.com drop new articles that both rehash Spygate, but also play up every single silly rumor of anything the Patriots ever might’ve done. 

The bottom line, the Patriots are firmly entrenched in the minds of every other NFL team.

But it’s extremely curious that two major outlets come out with essentially the same story, rehashing the same details, without any real new information, at the same time. 

With all the NFL’s leaks during Deflategate, this certainly feels like their handy work in some part, because when you can’t attack someone’s argument, you attack their credibility. The NFL lost in court and now it’s a hard tack to “HERE’S EVERY RUMOR WE COULD EVER FIND ABOUT THE PATRIOTS MAKING THINGS HARD ON THEIR OPPONENTS”.

The ESPN article would almost have you believe it’s about how Deflategate was payback for Spygate. That’s interesting, and not surprising. But instead of really hitting on that, instead the focus is all the rumors that have built up over the years.

Now, there’s no actual proof nor are any of them technically against the rules, but that doesn’t mean everyone can’t cry about them? No one questions that the Patriots are ALWAYS competing. Always. Whether it’s at the scouting combine or Wednesday’s injury report. Everything they do has purpose toward winning.

Now where’s the line between gamesmanship and cheating in professional sports? It’s easy to get the hyper competitive asshole out of your men’s pickup basketball game, not so much in the NFL. To lose a job in the NFL you have to lose, and the Patriots don’t lose very often.

I really don’t want this to now take away from the start of the Patriots season. I worry that the team might be as tired of these media firestorms as I am and that it could affect their play. But there’s also some fun in being the big bad wolf.

None of the items mentioned in either article won any games for the Patriots, but the perception of them, a perception which these articles will cement in everyone’s minds, has certainly caused opponents to spend more time worrying than preparing and that’s what their effectiveness is. 

Once again it feels like things are coming full circle. I started blogging roughly because of Spygate, and my first published article was about embracing the dark side. Here we are eight years later and not much has changed.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, deflategate, spygate

Pats Posits: More on the roster, the week ahead and needed number changes

September 6, 2015 by Mike Dussault

– The line between linebacker and safety seems to be disappearing. Linebackers used to only need to be slightly more athletic than offensive linemen, but now they must be able to run and cover tight ends, running backs and sometimes wide receivers, all of which run the gamut of size and speed. Belichick has long experimented with big safeties in the dime linebacker role, but that has seeped into many of the subpackages. 

– This speaks overall to the total athleticism of the defense now. There are just four defensive tackles, each a little different than the other, but generally where the only size exists on the defense. The defensive ends, linebackers and strong safeties all have plenty of crossover in coverage and need to be able to play in space at times.

– The Patriots have always been a gameplan defense but it’s going to be extreme this year. You simply can’t pencil in anyone in a particular side or position. The defensive tackles will be mixed however best fits to attack the offensive line whether it’s having two space eaters inside or using Easley to attack gaps.

– Then there’s the cornerbacks who I think will be in more man-to-man than any of us anticipated, but it will be about matching features, not just Butler on the left/ on the best receiver, etc. The safeties will factor into this as well. Put it this way, tracking the snaps and coverage is going to be a headache this year.

– With Stork back at practice I really have no idea what the OL looks like Thursday night. Although Jackson looks a little better than Mason, I wouldn’t rule out Solder-Mason-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer.

– Travaris Cadet is a wild card because there’s no tape on how the Pats plan on using him. He’s receiver-like in his route running and I think the Pats are going to use him to create a lot of favorable matchups.

– Remember September is always about experimentation, even to the point of losing games unfortunately. Guys are going to get chances in the first four weeks that don’t represent how good they actually are. Guys could be seen in September, get their chance, and never be heard from again if they don’t seize it. So don’t read too much into the lineup week one especially.

– Wouldn’t mind some number changes for Tre Flowers (74), Rufus Johnson (70) or Geneo Grissom (48) today. 52, 58, 59, 90, 98 are open.

– Dion Lewis is the RB to watch vs. Pittsburgh I think.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, new england patriots

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