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Thursday Patriots Regroup

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Few things to talk about this morning as we get ready for the last Patriots football-free weekend until the bye week (hopefully).

Cannon/Vollmer

Headline news of Wednesday was the return of Cannon, Vollmer and Jackson, reinforcing an offensive line that badly needed it. Now we wonder how they organize things now. They can reevaluate who goes to LT. Remember we didn’t see much at all of Cannon there for any length of time. Feels like a chance to reset and move forward. But props to Cameron Fleming for doing a solid job being thrust from practice squad, to third tackle to right tackle to starting left tackle. The second-year player handled it as well as could be expected all things considered.

Jamie Collins

Holy Hoodie, what the hell did Collins contract? Ian Rapoport said yesterday that he’s over the illness, now he’s just being nursed back to health. You can imagine how much weight (and strength) he lost, but it seems like there’s still a chance he will play Monday night. All things being equal I hope they don’t rush him back, but his absence has certainly leveled off Dont’a Hightower’s play as well.

Injuries

Seriously though, remember at the bye week when the whole team was healthy and it seemed like we’d never lose again? Well it still seems like we MIGHT never lose again but it’s hard to remember a worse injury year outside of 2013 and even then I think this one is in the running. Starting left tackle, two biggest playmakers on offense, and probably the most talented defensive player. Now it’s been almost every week they lose someone important for a significant period of time, if not the year. Can we just have one game without an injury please?

Coleman/Melvin

Part of the Belichick defensive philosophy is to take away what you do best, which often means the key matchups when playing the Patriots are third and fourth receivers against the slot cornerback. So that’s often where the Patriots live or die. They lived in the Super Bowl because (except for one miracle catch) Malcolm Butler came on for Kyle Arrington and played well. So when looking down the road, it’s teams with great receiver depth (or even just a third/fourth receiver with great speed or size) that will give the Pats problems. The Bengals are one team that concerns me for this reason.

Chandler Jones

I was a little too harsh on Chandler in my initial reaction to the game. Overall I think he played pretty well against the Giants. Eli deserved more credit because he did well targeting receivers not named Beckham or Randle. Still, the third down defense concerns me and I’d like to see big games this week from Easley and Sheard.

Malcom Brown

The rookie just keeps getting better each week, standing out at the end of the Giants game with great effort and pursuit forcing Eli to take a seat on third down at the goal line. Brown has good lateral quickness and is very stout. He’s really embraced the interior role and along with Alan Branch is doing a great job against the run. I’d love to see more of Easley and Brown together as the last two first-round picks. Seems like they’d be a good compliment to each other.

Vince Wilfork

We were scared the run defense would struggle without Vince, but it’s actually been better. I wonder if part of the reason is because they’re not running one guy into the ground any more. Instead they use a solid four-man run stopping rotation inside, along with mixing and matching Easley.

Dane Fletcher/Chris Jones

 The Pats have until next Wednesday to activate Fletcher and Jones off of PUP and I wonder what they will do. For Fletcher the need is obvious if he’s the same player he was a couple years ago. If he is, he might be the third best linebacker behind Hightower and Collins immediately. As for Jones I look at him more in the Easley role. Perhaps he unseats Ayers or Siliga, but both have better size. Not sure how he’d fit given the great tackle depth we have right now.

He’s Not D-Edelman

The big question this week is how the Pats make up for the loss of Edelman and how Keshawn Martin/Aaron Dobson/Chris Harper might fit into things. While I do think Amendola remains as the slot/third receiver, the important thing as I see it is not who plays the second WR spot with LaFell, but who makes plays on third downs. That was where Edelman was huge and I think we should expect Amendola to be out there on every third down passing situations.

Rex n’ Bills

Rex just won’t die. Here he comes once again, full of confidence after beating the Jets and ready to give us another game. Without Edelman, this game is a huge challenge and I think the Bills will be ready. They finished strong against the Pats earlier this year.The key will be the offensive line and how well they pick up Rex’s schemes. But when Rex drops eight into coverage who will get open like Edelman does so well?

The Patriots Aren’t Going Undefeated (and it’s a good thing)

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Does it go against my homer blog motif to say that the Patriots aren’t going undefeated? After 2007 I’m surprised if anyone still wants to. All anyone did was complain for seven years about the 16-0 banner, and now people are endlessly debating doing it again?

I get that it’s a talking point every season, especially for a team that hits 9-0, but realistically the Patriots are going to lose at least one game, and probably to a team that no one really expects.

No one thought the 2007 Patriots would lose to the Ravens but they should have. And really, a loss like that would’ve alleviated some pressure and probably would’ve helped the Pats get over the hump against the Giants in the Super Bowl rematch. Think about that. No pressure-packed season finale. Eli and Brady probably sitting out. The Giants getting no bead on what the Patriots were doing. Etc.

Obviously that was a specific opponent and things just happened to work out that they met again in the Super Bowl, but if you don’t care about hanging a 16-0 banner again what does one loss matter as long as it doesn’t cost a playoff seed?

The Patriots are not a perfect team. Injuries have cemented that and though Vollmer and Cannon returned to practice this week, it’s still very possible the offensive line have an off game that even Brady can’t overcome.

The third down defense has been the weak link for the defense in recent weeks, and though a lot of their struggles have been overstated, if they continue to be up around 50% on third down it won’t be long before a team makes them pay for it.

I’m not trying to rain on the Patriots parade, I prefer to be leading it, but I also think if 2007 taught us anything it’s the value of a loss. Of getting some weaknesses exposed. Of getting dragged through the media wringer a bit instead of only hearing how great you are and what your chances are of going 16-0.

There’s a good chance that loss is coming. And whatever weaknesses are exposed or revealed doesn’t suddenly mean that Patriots still aren’t Super Bowl contenders. We might have learned more about the Patriots in their last loss to the Packers than we did in most of the games last season. But it was also apparent that the mistakes were correctable and even on an off day in a tough place to play against one of the best teams in the NFL, they still hung tough and didn’t give up a second half touchdown.

Those are the games where you learn the most about your team. Not by blowing the doors off someone like the Redskins every week.

The Patriots will feel the impact of losing Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman at some point, but that will only help them evolve new methods of attack, methods that will be needed to take down the best teams in the playoffs.

Whenever it happens just remember, losses are a good thing for a team like ours.

Patriots vs. Giants All-22 Review – Offense Edition

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Got a chance to look at the offensive side of the ball on Tuesday, albeit briefly and on my iPhone but I picked up a few interesting observations to pass along.

– I thought Brady had an up and down game. There were some great throws. There were some that were off that he usually makes. And there were some bad mental decisions he usually doesn’t make. Still, the Pats won the game, but he doesn’t seem entirely lights out right now whether it’s due to the offensive line, the loss of Edelman/Lewis, or what. The bomb to LaFell was the best deep ball he’s thrown since last year’s GWTD vs. the Ravens to LaFell. The TD to Gronk was nails. The goal line interception is a throw he makes, like in the Super Bowl to LaFell for instance. 

– Now Brady has to face a Rex Ryan defense without his best anti-Rex receiver and a rag tag offensive line. If ever there was a week to get Cannon and Vollmer back, this would be a good one.

– James White didn’t flash like Dion Lewis did but he was solid in a limited role. They certainly aren’t ready to thrust him into the fire. Rather they’ll work him in and he’ll go off in one of these random late-season games. He blocked well and came through with a clutch catch in the fourth quarter that everyone seems to be forgetting about.

– Amendola played another heck of a game, sparking the team yet again with a  big play (punt return) then making the clutch catches at the end that Edelman usually does. I’m excited to see what he does in an expanded role over the last seven games.

– The offensive line competes hard, but they can’t avoid some tough breakdowns at times. All of them had instances of missed blocks and failed assignments. Again, Cannon and Vollmer asap please.

– I continue to believe Blount is better served in an early rotation as he never really got fully going against the Giants. I don’t know if there’s really an answer to that now with the roster decimated, but if they can’t get some quality carries out of Bolden or White, the run game could be vulnerable.

Patriots vs. Giants All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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There are plenty of specifics I’ll dive into a bit later this week, but for now the All-22 viewing is allowing me to process the minutiae of this game a bit better without all the nerves involved.

I think this game was better than a lot of us want to admit, with it really just boiling down to poor third down defense. The imminent return of Jamie Collins will help that.

Otherwise the run defense was stout, the tackle was good and the edge setters did their jobs. The pass rush just couldn’t cause enough problems to get Eli into bad throws on third down. 

Here are my thoughts on the defense after review:

– As usual it was a mix of mostly single high safety man coverage, with some Cover-2 Man mixed in. They went right at Eli which is a nice change from 2011.

– I don’t think the biggest talent problem on the defense is at cornerback, it’s at linebacker after Hightower and Collins. The Giants made a number of plays picking on Jonathan Freeny, especially in the first half. Neither Jerod Mayo nor Jonathan Bostic can do much either. Mayo looked a little better in this one, but overall he still lacks any pop in his game. If Hightower and Collins are healthy and on the field through the playoffs the defense will be a lot better than they were in this one.

– Justin Coleman was clearly playing with one hand, but I’m still not sure if he got yanked because of that or because he had a growing target on his back throughout the first half.

– Even the All-DE pass rush front was failing to generate much disruption. Eli was getting the ball out quick, but he had a good feel for the pocket and even when they flushed him out of it he was able to complete easy checkdowns.

– The run defense was excellent, as the Giants averaged just over 3.5 yards-per-rush on first and second down. The longest run they gave up was 10 yards on the day. 20 runs went for five yards or less, just three went more than five yards. This bodes well for the Bills game. One that went for six yards only had Easley in as a down linemen. Easley should’ve had him in the backfield too.

– The crazy thing to me is that I continue to feel like Easley makes more plays against the run with his burst than he does against the pass. He pushes back his blocker into the backfield and that forces the running back to make an early cut. But on many passing downs he just doesn’t cause the same kind of disruption.

– Interesting to see Chung effectively playing WILB in the 34 above. 

– Couple pressure plays by Hightower and Ninkovich that I missed live and picked up this time. Part of hold their opening second half drive to a field goal.

– PI calls on Chung and Butler on the first drive of the second half were head scratchers. Especially Butler’s where it looks like he didn’t even touch Beckham.

– Sheard just rotated in at defensive end, in the first half, then got some pass rushing snaps in the second half. Didn’t seem like the ankle was an issue, but he wasn’t quite back to where he was early this season. He should make a splash on MNF I’d bet.

– In a lot of ways this felt like last year’s defense, where the outside corners were doing a great job but the slot guys and linebackers were the ones getting picked on. Getting Collins back should help on both fronts due to trickle down and just how much ground he can cover.

– There’s nowhere to go:

– I know a lot of people were running to McCourty’s defense after this one but he missed a few plays in this one. Once he was doubling Rueben Randle under the route and still got beat. Just want to see him make more plays that he should make and has made in the past.

– Seeing more pressure than I remember again, this time Easley forcing Eli off the spot but Eli does a great job with a subtle slide then throwing a strike.

– Yes, this was a blah defensive performance overall but there were some impressive moments, none more than the defense forcing a punt after Brady fumbled on their own 34-yard line. Game was hanging by a thread.

– Ninkovich’s sack that moved the ball back 13 yards was a big part of this, but that sack was helped by great coverage as Eli had to pull it down on two reads before Nink got there.

– The Pats then forced two three and outs with impressive play from Malcolm Butler along with a timely blitz from Patrick Chung. The defense picked the right time to wake up on those two drives with the game in balance, but then came the final drive.

– Pats started rushing three on the first third down. On the second third down with just one yard to go Easley and Brown didn’t give an inch inside, but the Giants still found the yard. Good stoutness up front anyway.

– On the next third down the Giants got 30 yards with the Pats rushing just three again. The rotation on this drive was apparent to keep the pass rush fresh but even that couldn’t get three guys home. Eli easily slid and threw a strike as Melvin got beat in coverage.

– This is what bugs me. Three third downs and they couldn’t get a stop on any of them. I don’t love the rushing three guys here and it killed them on two of them.

– Still the goal line stand was impressive and once again the Pats were prepared for what the Giants were doing down there.

Was this the ‘85 Bears D? No. But this is what the Patriots do. Really what it boils down to was that the pass rush just wasn’t quite firing like it should be. How much can you complain about bad calls, your slot receiver getting picked on or incredible throw-and-catches? We’ve see this before this season against the Jets. When the third down defense doesn’t get off the field they’re in trouble. But in almost every other facet they played well.

And if you can’t be excited about Malcolm Butler after this one I got nothing for you.

Pats Posits: Breaking the Giant Curse at a Cost

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There hasn’t been a more emotionally draining football game since the Super Bowl, and to find its regular season equivalent we might have to go all the way back to the 4th-and-2 2009 game. Wow. What a ball game.

Early on it looked just like the last three Giants games have looked. Eli and his bottom-of-the-depth-chart receivers making magical plays and moving the ball seemingly at will.

But this time it was Eli and the Giants who left just a little too much time for Tom Brady, and he made them pay the same way the Patriots had to pay the Giants the last three times.

So much to digest from this game, with Julian Edelman’s injury, one that will keep him out at least until the playoffs, if not longer, being at the forefront.

But for now here at the Posits on how the Pats finally beat their Giant mind block.

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First, with the Broncos losing again the Pats are sitting in good position for a top two seed and the bye that comes with it. Honestly if this means we’ll have an almost-healthy Edelman for the playoff run it’s not the worst thing in the world. Better this than a Week 17 Welker ACL tear.

They’re paying Amendola plenty of money, he should be okay filling Edelman’s role for six weeks. He’s a much better option than rookie Edelman was filling in for Welker in 2009. I think we all generally trust him a lot more down than we did early in his Patriots career. He’s made a ton of clutch plays since mid-2014 and a big reason why the Pats not only won a Super Bowl, but are currently 9-0.

Big picture for the offense, they just need Vollmer and Cannon back and then we’ll see where we’re at. What this patchwork offensive line did against the Giants deserves a ton of credit. We still must wonder how healthy they can get, and then just how good that group is. We haven’t even seen Cannon at left tackle much at all. Obviously Vollmer’s return will settle things. Hopefully that’s not too bad of a concussion.

Now there’s another chance for Aaron Dobson
, who should find himself on the field more frequently. But I still think LaFell, Gronk and Amendola are a very experienced and tough trio. 

Big picture on the defense, the pass rush was too quiet against the Giants. But overall they didn’t have as bad of a game as some on my twitter feed thought. They didn’t allow a touchdown in the second half. Yes, the long drive at the end was dreadful, but in the end they bent but didn’t break enough for Brady to pull it out.

This is what they do. No one should be surprised.

But overall what a gutty road performance by the 2015 Patriots. We might’ve lost Edelman for a bit but we learned a lot about this team. Every year is unique but this is another edition that will fight down to the last man.

Now, the small stuff:

This is just the kind of game I’ve been talking about with Chandler Jones and he had the nice sack at the start, but a relatively quiet day when the Pats were often only rushing a few guys. Would’ve liked to have seen more out of him, NInkovich and Easley. 

Though Ninkovich did come through with the big sack that set up a punt near the end of the game. That was a game-saving play. 

Easley and Hightower were also quiet on the pass rush front, while Sheard gets a pass in his first game back.

The run defense was once again excellent, one of the most pleasant surprises of the first Post-Wilfork season. Credit to Branch and Brown, Siliga and Hicks.

Malcolm Butler was on the end of a tough play to start the game but he bounced back extremely well. This might’ve been the best full game of his career. Take away Odell Beckham’s 87-yard touchdown and he had just 3 more catches for 17 yards. And that’s with 12 targets! Butler had three passes defensed.

I understand the thought to try to get Blount going with this makeshift line we’re running out there, but I still think he’s the kind of back that needs someone in front of him to soften the defense up before downshifting to Blount.

I wanted to see more of White, but they seemed to put away the Lewis portion of the playbook as far as he was concerned. There were a couple with Brandon Bolden, but the Pats passing down back offense hasn’t been ignored it was in this game very often.

This was a big third down game, neither team did much on first or second down. The Pats finished 7-14, the Giants 7-15. That one third down stop was literally the difference in the game. The pass rush can and will be better, and once that happens they’ll be fine. 

Don’t think McCourty’s had his best season. There was the miscue on first touchdown, but there’s been a couple of those kind of plays from him this year. Not picking up a fumble earlier in the season and getting a “you’re a better player than that” from BB springs to mind as well.

For the second time this year I’ve thought that Matthew Slater
was done for the year only to see him return. Can’t imagine what his body is going through right now.

Rough penalty game with a lot of bad calls in key situations going the wrong way. Eli even Flacco’d us a bit.

Justin Coleman got picked on and eventually replaced by Melvin. I like Melvin’s size and that’s about it. Still think Coleman is the better player. As many catches as they gave up the tackling was pretty solid and there wasn’t much YAC.

The defense is different without Jamie Collins. Obviously. And Hightower has had a couple down weeks. Unfortunately the dropoff to Freeny and Mayo is huge. I don’t know how quickly Dane Fletcher can get up to speed, but they could use a guy like him.

Losing Dion Lewis
hurts man. This is one of the worst breakups I’ve gone through in some time. I’m trying to just not think or post about him, but wow did they miss his multiple first-down-outta-nothing plays against the Giants.

Amendola’s punt return what was really sparked the comeback, but Brady almost gave it away there a couple times. Really, they should’ve put them away much earlier than they did, but overcoming that is still pretty impressive. They know they can’t get away with that in big games against good teams.

I turned my TV off after I thought Landon Collins intercepted Brady on the final drive. Only one last look at twitter saved me from missing the real ending. Could you imagine?

What else is there to say about Tom Brady. This one felt good. It came at a price, but it was a warm feeling to finally give Eli a last second loss, even if it doesn’t mean anything as far as those Super Bowl losses are concerned.

Let’s get Vollmer and Cannon back this week!

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 at New York Giants

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It’s hard to believe that the Patriots haven’t beaten Eli and the Giants since they clinched 16-0 in December 2007. I remember that night especially well because the next morning my wife and I found out we were going to have our first kid. Yes, that was quite the 24 hours.

Now that zygote is a seven year old and has never been on the Earth for a Patriots win over the Giants. Crazy.

We all remember the Super Bowls, and I think Eli phrased it well this week when he said they just caught the Pats on the right days. Let’s be honest, the 2011 Patriots probably didn’t have much business winning the Super Bowl, especially with Gronk on one leg, so it’s still amazing to me how close that team came when you consider just how bad their defense was.

It seemed though like everything had lined up for the 2011 Pats. First they knocked off the team that ended their season in 2005, the Broncos. Then they got revenge on the team that ended them in 2009, the Ravens. Finally came a chance to beat the team that killed their perfect season. It just seemed like fate that Brady and Belichick would get their fourth against the the Giants. But alas it unfolded in almost the same exact excruciating fashion as Super Bowl 42.

I’ve only seen Tom Brady
 lose two games live in person, and the 2011 regular season game against the Giants was one of them. We had a great pregame tailgate with Nick Stevens (aka Fitzy), Erik Frenz and the mystery man himself @PatriotsSB49. It felt like we were exercising some demons that day, but again it was the same kind of result with Eli tearing our heart out with a last minute drive.

None of the Patriots will say it this week, but I’ll say it: A win over the Giants this weekend means something. Yes, they are almost completely different teams than the last time they met, even if the quarterbacks and coaches are the same. Yes, winning Super Bowl 49 took some of the stink off of SB42 and SB46, but still, beating the Giants in their own stadium will put a final nail in those losses, at least until we see the Giants in the Super Bowl again, which I’m not holding my breath for. 

Here’s the gameplan to finally take down Eli and Coughlin.

Offensive Gameplan

Now things are starting to get a bit interesting. The last few weeks I slipped into a “just do what we do” mode with the offensive gameplans, but now, with injuries to Sebastian Vollmer and Dion Lewis, there has to be some management going on.

You look at the Giants defense and it’s a shadow of what it was in those Super Bowl years. Yes, JPP is back and should help their pass rush but if you turn on any of their games this year, especially the Saints one, they’re just getting torched.

That might lead you to think this is a ‘spread ‘em out and eat ‘em alive’ gameplan, which is probably what they’ll do, but that begs the question of how will they replace Dion Lewis?

Let me start by saying Brandon Bolden is a valuable player to this team. He is an excellent special teams player and that shouldn’t sound like a backhanded compliment because the Patriots have built their dynasty on great special teams as much as (almost) anything. However Bolden is not a playmaker as a running back. He’s going to get what’s there and then he’s going down the first guy who tries to tackle him. 

So I think James White
 plays a ton in this one, at least early on. He’s not going to be as good as Dion Lewis was, but can he be a close proximity to what Shane Vereen was? Yes. Can he develop enough confidence and experience over the last eight regular season games to do what Vereen did in last year’s playoffs? Yes. He just needs the chance, but I think just as Lewis defined the new evolution of the offense in the first half of the season, White can define it in the second half. He’ll just need some time and experience to really find a groove, but the Pats really have no other options at this point and he does have the talent to make the plays necessary in this major role in the Pats’ offense.

The other issue will be at tackle, where I’m guessing Bryan Stork
 gets the start at right tackle? Yes this is scary, and he’ll likely have Michael Williams next to him to help on many downs. But what about Cam Fleming at left tackle? How much help is he going to need? Does that mean Gronk has to stay in to block more, thus limiting the Pats offense even further? 

I still hold out hope that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon and the offense can find some continuity down the stretch to the playoffs. But for now it’s just about surviving. That means doing whatever is necessary to help give Brady enough time to carve the Giants secondary, which he should do.

Maybe the answer is to use more empty sets, reducing White’s role at least in this one so that two guys can be kept in to protect the edges, but still keeping three wide receivers in the game to challenge the secondary matchups. 

Either way, getting by with a makeshift line is the key in this game and if they can keep it together like they did against the Redskins, the Pats should move the ball. If they don’t this game could look a lot like the Giants games we’ve become accustomed to the last three times.

Defensive Gameplan

Not much of a surprise here that it all starts with Odell Beckham Jr. One key thing I remember from Super Bowl 46 was that Belichick keyed on taking away Nicks and Cruz and forcing Eli to beat them with Manningham (and guess what, he did).

The question is whether or not you stick Butler on him or Ryan. I tend to think Ryan might be the better choice, as he can then get some help from Duron Harmon over the top. Of course the double team will be a rotating cast of characters, but generally I think Ryan/Harmon is the way to go. That leaves Butler for Rueben Randle.

The real x-factor is old pal Shane Vereen, especially if the sick Jamie Collins doesn’t play. Running back coverage is often how Collins is deployed and his familiarity with Vereen would’ve been helpful. There just isn’t another linebacker after Collins that is a favorable matchup with Vereen which means the duties may shift to a safety.

Eli has 19 touchdowns and is experienced enough to confidently attack the Patriots’ secondary. The Patriots just haven’t been able to put him on the “bad” Eli track early in their games against him. Now the remade secondary gets one of their biggest quarterback tests of the year and I think they still have something to prove.

Not to take away any credit from the solid job the overall defense has done this year, but it hasn’t been a murderer’s row like last year was. Roethlisberger and Luck (injured) are the only quarterbacks they’ve faced that I’d consider good. Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are okay and maybe capable of beating the Patriots, but more often than not the Pats will force them into game-deciding amounts of turnovers.

Eli has some really good weapons and he’s not going to be afraid of the Patriots. Plus he’s at home, so he should be turn in a good game. How the Pats shut him down this time will tell us a lot about them. Let’s just hope it doesn’t come down to one final chance for Eli to win the game again.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ball Security – The Giants lead the league in turnover differential (Pats are second). They’ve forced 13 turnovers in their last four games. So really, that’s as big a reason why they’re 5-4. The Pats ball security is very good. In fact it’s so good people think they’re cheating, but it’s just that they know how important not turning the ball over is and it’s a huge key this week. 

2. Take Away Odell – It’s no secret what a dynamic player Beckham is and the Patriots always excel at taking away a team’s primary piece. Beckham will still make a couple plays (did you ever hear about that one-handed catch he made last year?) but the key is tackle him and prevent the yards after the catch. The Pats have been excellent at this in 2015, but this might be their biggest test yet.

3. Protect Tom – Maybe you do have to lean a bit more on Gronk as a pass blocker this week, but we all know what happens when the Pats’ offensive line has one of those games where they look completely out of sync. We all just assume that any offensive line injury can be overcome because the Pats have been doing it for so long, but this year’s tackle injuries are as bad as it’s ever been. Luckily the interior guys are in good shape at the moment and that helps but this will be a game if the Pats makeshift line isn’t on point. 

4. Attack Deep – It’s hard to watch Drew Brees throwing downfield to wide open targets and not think the Pats can do the same thing. Maybe that means LaFell and Dobson on the outside, but Meriweather and Collins, the two Giants safeties, looked like Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum out there, blowing coverages and playing clueless. Of course, throwing deep balls require good protection so that is what they’ll have to do first.

5. Win – This is a mental game this week. Yes, the Patriots can say all they want about this being a different Giants team, but I think a win over them still means a lot psychologically. I am hopeful that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon, but until then the Pats must find a way to make their offensive line work on the edges. I don’t think it’s a lock that they just line up anyone at the tackle spots and everything keeps clicking. It could, but there will likely be moments where the offense sputters because of edge pressure. We’re on to the second half of the season, time to start defining who this Patriots team will be when the playoffs hit.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Giants 21

New England Patriots Mid-Season Regroup

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Since Belichick went off on midseason grades I’m going to avoid that here, but it’s a good time to take inventory of what we now know about the 2015 Patriots, and look down the road to what they’ll have to overcome to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

First, let’s take a look at the major unknowns entering the season:

Cornerback Turnover

The biggest storyline entering the season was the purge of all the cornerbacks and the anticipated move back to more zone defense. The good news is that Malcolm Butler looks like the best young corner we’ve had since Ty Law, Logan Ryan has finally found some consistency, and rookie Justin Coleman has be surprisingly solid as the slot corner. The better news is that the Patriots have stuck with a majority of Cover-1 Man defense, something that I feel is vital in today’s NFL. Maybe the overall great play of the front seven has hid some of the deficiencies at cornerback, but they’ve also managed to incorporate a lot more three (and even four) safety packages. 

Interior OL

The retirement of Dan Connolly put a major focus on replacing a starting guard this season, but little did we know they’d also have to replace Ryan Wendell and Bryan Stork out of the gate. But the great news is the emergence of veteran Josh Kline (who just earned a two-year extension) and a trio of rookies – Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews. With Bryan Stork back, the Patriots suddenly have solid depth on the inside of their offense line. The problem has been the unrelenting injuries to their tackles.

Replacing Vereen

Like the interior offensive line, it looked like the Patriots had magically upgraded their passing down running back role with the emergence of the electric Dion Lewis, who would’ve broken records had he remained healthy the entire season. But now, with Lewis done for the year, the question of who will replace Vereen for the potential last 11 games of the season remains wide open. James White should get the first crack at it. Can he replicate Vereen’s clutch play in last year’s Super Bowl? 

Fatal Flaws?

The Patriots are 8-0 right now, but there are plenty of areas that could derail their Super Bowl hopes. The biggest is the health of their tackles and that almost entirely hinges upon the health of Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer. We’d assume both will return sooner than later, but the bigger question is keeping them healthy for the playoffs. With those two guys in the game the Pats could beat anyone. But they’re almost out of bodies at the position and losing someone else for the season could be catastrophic.

No one will admit it but the ceiling of the Patriots offense going forward rests almost entirely on James White’s shoulders. If White can’t pick up pass protection, can’t pick up those clutch third downs that are needed on checkdowns, can’t make the first guy consistently miss, the Pats offense will be hindered. For as unstoppable as Gronk and Edelman are, they need that running back element, especially when they go with a pass heavy gameplan. The good news is that we still don’t know what we have in White, and he’s shown some flashes at times in his first two years.

Reasons to Book Tix to San Fran in February

Tom Brady has mastered the game and unless his offensive line just totally lays an egg, he’s going to find a way to beat any team that is put in front of him. Obviously the health of Gronkowski is paramount. As we’ve said all along, if he’s healthy in the last game of the season, it will likely be in the Super Bowl. As good as Brady is, the presence of Gronkowski makes the Patriots’ offense truly impossible. But we’ve known about Brady and Gronk for a while now, the true difference for this Patriots team is…

The front seven. Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are the kind of talented pieces the team lacked on defense from 2008-2011. Now they are all coming into their prime and will give the Patriots at least another season of defensive dominance. Add in the solid play of Rob Nikovich, the anticipated return if Jabaal Sheard and the elevated play of Alan Branch and first-round pick Malcom Brown and this defense has more talent than we’ve seen since 2007. And it’s younger, athletic talent that can dictate, not older, savvy talent that has to rely a little more on brains than brawn as we saw in those late dynasty years.

Despite the health issues on offense, the defense has been largely lucky outside of losing Sheard for the last month and Tarrell Brown for the season. But otherwise their depth is outstanding and varied and they can play any kind of game necessary to win.

Simply put, this is a defense I would feel good about getting the last stop in a playoff game. That’s what the defenses of 2006, 2007 and 2011 didn’t do.

Conclusion

This Patriots team will remain largely intact next season, giving them a window of two years to get another title before some big decision have to be made about who stays and who goes. But with a number of high round picks on defense coming into their prime as well as Brady not slowing down and having great pieces around him, the Patriots should be favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at least once in the next two tries.

We’re only halfway through the season and what defines the second half could be much different than what has defined the first. Dion Lewis helped get the Pats to 8-0 but they’ll need someone else to step up to get them to the Super Bowl.

Still, this first half has once again proved how well the “Patriot Way” works. In hindsight the Patriots were right to let Revis, Browner and Arrington walk, and if anything their defense has been better overall this year than last.

I don’t know what will transpire before the Pats get to the playoffs, which players they will lose or get back, but it’s clear they have they should once again be in it until the end and will go down swinging no matter what. Can an opponent put together that perfect game needed to beat them? The Pats will welcome all challengers.