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Closer Look at Patriots’ Coming 2017 Defensive Restart

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I touched on this a little bit yesterday, but wanted to go into a bit more depth today to illustrate just how many choices the Patriots will have to make with their defense in 2017.

Yes, they’ll return everyone next year and with so few free agents in 2016 it will be a prime time to start filling in the numerous holes that they’ll have in 2017. But with a ton of cap space the Pats have a ton of freedom.

First, let’s mention the offense in 2017 which would be in relatively good shape outside of depth. But the front line should be excellent with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis all locked up. And there would be some great pieces up front to block for them – including Solder, Fleming, Klein, Stork and this year’s three rookies Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews (an RFA). The offense could also keep Danny Amendola around, albeit at a high cost.

So offensively the major pieces are in place, but now let’s took a look at a depth chart of the defenders who are currently slated to be under contract in just two years:

That’s it. Nine guys, and Mayo, who is almost certainly cut this offseason, though he could certainly return on a team-friendly deal. Butler is a no-brainer to retain as a restricted free agent as well, though keeping him long term will be a headline issue for 2018.

So tell me exactly how the Pats can’t afford to re-sign Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Jabaal Sheard? Because there’s only one guy on this defense that will be playing on a significant non-rookie contract.

The only real question might be if Flowers surpasses Sheard and then makes better financial sense as the starting LDE. Either way I think it’s a good bet that Ninkovich is phased out (unfortunately). Perhaps Rufus Johnson can continue to ascend as well, he’s a exclusive rights free agent after next year.

Really, what are the other options to re-signing the big three? Fill all these holes with external free agents? Or second-year guys and rookies acquired in the next two offseasons? That’s impossible and has no chance to form a defense anywhere close to what it would be with Jones/Hightower/Collins. You need all three of them. It’s in the best interest of the team both financially and on the field.

The real question marks are the second tier guys at less valuable positions like Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Jones. I’d also lock up Justin Coleman for this mix as well.

Then Jones/Hightower/Collins would perfect round out the defense, much in the same way the offense looks at this point – just in need of depth but certainly not lacking top-end talent.

Patriots History of Defensive Front Seven Extensions Bodes Well for Jones, Hightower, Collins.

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Today the Pats extended Josh Kline, who has followed a tried and true path from practice squad offensive lineman, to spot starter, to solid starter. Kline is arguably the most improved player on the Patriots offense this season and was probably the only key free agent next offseason.

Of course the contracts that are on everyone’s mind are those of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, who are all free agents in 2017. The Pats have plenty of cap space, as essentially this year and next we’ll keep the current defense intact and then they can pick who they want to keep and who they want to let go.

Some are skeptical that Chandler can be kept but I think if we look at Belichick’s history it shows that defensive linemen are really what he values most, so don’t rule out the Pats giving Chandler a big deal.

First consider that all the defensive linemen Belichick has drafted in the first round have received sizable extensions. Richard Seymour had his contract squabbles but the Pats still held onto him for eight seasons before sending him to Oakland. This included a  three-year, $30million extension in 2006.

Then there’s Ty Warren who received a five-year, $35 million extension the year before his rookie deal expired.

And Vince WIlfork got 5-years, $40 million in 2010. That he even got to the end of his rookie deal was a surprise.

Also consider linebacker contract extensions Belichick gave out: Vrabel (2005, 5 years, $16.4 million), Bruschi (2004, three years, $4.6 million (!!!!!!)), Mayo (2011, 5 years, $48.5 million). Or consider the 5-year, $35 million they gave Adalius Thomas in free agency, the biggest free agency whiff of the Belichick era, but still one that shows big money going to a defensive front seven spot.

All of these deals were significant money (except for Bruschi and Vrabel who embodied “team-friendly” deals) and though none saw the end of their deals, it shows that defensive line and linebacker positions are where the Patriots are willing to pay.

Everyone might scoff at how many good players have walked from New England over the years, but there isn’t a single good defensive linemen or linebacker who has gotten away and it doesn’t take a football pundit to recognize that these are the positions Belichick values most.

So don’t assume Chandler Jones
 is walking after 2016. The more likely scenario is that he receives a three-to-five year extension this offseason that will still give him a chance to cash in on another contract. That’s the one that will be with another team and he’ll likely underperform how much he gets at that point in his career.

With no pending monster quarterback deal to give out any time soon, the Patriots have an incredible amount of flexibility as they head toward 2017. Jones, Hightower and Collins can all be retained, and if you add in McCourty (signed through 2019), Easley, Malcom Brown, and Sheard and all the pieces are in place at the most important spots on the defense.

The real guy to be concerned over is Malcolm Butler in 2017. 

Patriots Film Review vs. Redskins: Defense Edition

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Always tough to focus on one specific area when the defense turns in a solid performance like this one, so we’re stick to a general overall review of the All-22 film for all the things that we might missed.

Schematically the Pats stuck with what they’ve been doing this year, mostly Cover-1 Man coverage with Patrick Chung in the box, morphing to more Cover-2 as the lead increased and they continued some use of the four-safety package designed specifically to put physicality in the seams of the defense.

Right now the Patriots defense looks locked in with what they are doing and there’s excellent balance on most downs between the rush and the coverage.

Most impressive has been the emergence of a dominant run defense that has been ignited by Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown. Both players were winning at the line of scrimmage and making plays in the backfield on multiple occasions. 

Brown has really improved through his first eight games. He’s really a unique defensive tackle, with an incredibly low center of gravity and surprising quickness that has him slipping blocks and getting to running backs. 

Once again Dominique Easley and Geneo Grissom are the pass rushing tackles, although we did see a bit of Grissom at defensive end near the end of the game. 

Ninkovich had some trouble at the start of the one long meaningful drive the Redskins put together, but he was generally solid otherwise. Seems like he had a bit more coverage responsibility in this one, as the Pats were dropping one of their edge players into the flat pretty consistently. Easley has a relatively quiet day I thought.

With no Jamie Collins, Jonathan Freeny stepped into play a majority of the snaps, and as the game progressed the Pats started pulling Dont’a Hightower and giving Jerod Mayo and Jonathan Bostic more of a look. Clearly Freeny is the best backup right now as he’s the only one who doesn’t look tentative. Mayo just lacks any pop to his game right now and I’m losing hope that he’ll get it back at all this season. Bostic was similar, looking a little unsure of where he’s going. Of course, he just got here, so that might not be due to his previous injuries like it is with Mayo.

A lot of people want to talk about trading for a corner but I have to say Butler/Ryan/Coleman have been as good as any corner group we’ve had not including last year. Even when they give up plays they are usually right there and usually make the tackle immediately. All are physical and good tacklers and that makes them perfect fits in this defense. Coleman had an unnecessary penalty at the end that cost them the touchdown, but for an undrafted rookie who got here way late, he’s been very solid.

Butler played perhaps his best game. Now I know it was DeSean Jackson’s first game back, but Butler gave up nothing to him, while also being physical against the run. Butler will get a much harder challenge this week against Odell Beckham Jr. Meanwhile Ryan continued to play the best ball of his career with another interception. He always just seems to be in the right place and yes, he might give up some catches, but they’re almost all contested.

A big part of the great secondary play has to be McCourty/Chung/Harmon/Richards, who all seem to have carved out their roles and are executing them at a high level. Though I did think McCourty missed a couple plays he usually makes.

Things seemed a little more relaxed and rotational this week, probably due to the quick and commanding lead right out of the gate. Still, the defense looks strong at all levels and once Jabaal Sheard gets back, he should really help them hit a new level. His return this week would be huge.

Patriots Lose Dynamic Dion Lewis to an ACL Tear

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The Boston Globe’s Jim McBride reports that Dion Lewis did tear his ACL and is done for the 2015 season. Lewis was like the new awesome toy you get on Christmas morning, only to have it break before the end of the day.

First, you have to feel horrible for Lewis, who’s been battling injuries constantly in the NFL. He finally just got healthy enough to show what a thrilling player he was and down he goes again with the dreaded ACL tear. 

Lewis truly made the Patriots offense almost unfair and his absence leaves a huge hole. The Pats were leaning on him more than any running back they’ve had in a long time and now the passing down role once again needs to be filled.

Unfortunately I kept worrying we were on borrowed time with Lewis considering how much he was getting the ball and how many tackles he was taking. The biggest bummer is just how much excitement Lewis brought to an offense that already had it’s fair share of playmakers.

At least once a game Lewis made something out of nothing or made a play that made you stand up out of your seat. Players that can do those things are rare and that element of the Patriots offense is now gone.

The page turns to James White now who has seven catches this season. He’s got quickness and talent, but just not the kind of special quickness and talent that Lewis had. 

White didn’t get the ball much against the Jets but made me feel better about him in those limited touches than I had before. 

The Pats could also explore bringing back Travaris Cadet, who did have over 70 catches last season with the Saints yet remains a free agent despite taking a number of visits around the league since being cut by the Pats.

The likely solution will be more of a combination of White and someone like Cadet to replace what Lewis did so well. But there’s no question it’s vital that the Patriots find a way to get production out of this role in the offense because it’s a big piece. 

Neither White nor Cadet are going to step in and do what Lewis was doing right out of the gate, but White certainly has the potential to shore things up well enough to keep this offense functioning at a high level. Sometimes players just need an extended chance to show what they can do, and now will be James White’s chance to put together 11 games to help get the Pats a Super Bowl title.

Lewis is looking at a significant recovery but all things considered, he should likely be back and ready to go for training camp. It will truly be tragic if he can’t regain the magic he flashed this season in his first real opportunity to showcase his talent, but with a new deal that keeps him in New England through 2017, he’ll definitely get the chance and will be one of the great unknowns in the Pats’ offense.

Pats Posits: Dion Lewis Buzzkill Edition

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The Patriots pretty easily handled the Redskins as expected on Sunday, but once again were dealt more problems in the injury department.

Still, the Pats rolled, the defense played well even without Jamie Collins, and they’re headed to another date with Eli sitting at 8-0.

But 2015 has quickly become a war of attrition since the Pats early bye week, when offensive linemen started dropping like Redskins receivers. We’re down to one healthy tackle and we’re only halfway to the playoffs.

Here are the somber Posits…

Where else to start but Dion Lewis
 and Sebastian Vollmer
? 

We’ll all be holding our breath on both early this week, hoping that somehow Lewis only has an MCL sprain and Vollmer is at practice Wednesday. Lewis had an almost “too good to be true” feel to him and unfortunately I think the odds are against us seeing him again this year.

You have to feel for a guy who was finally just coming out of the woods on the injuries that hurt him early in his career. He was electric and putting him into an offense that won the Super Bowl last year was almost unfair.

Regardless of this season, hopefully Lewis can get back to the level he played at. He seems like a truly special playmaker. If there’s just a chance to get him for the playoffs it’d be a win at this point.

As for replacing him, I think James White is next in line despite Bolden’s appearance on Sunday. White isn’t as elusive as Lewis, but he’s shown some flash here and there in limited spots this season.

Some are already speculating Travaris Cadet could make a return and that makes a lot of sense. The Pats aren’t dead in the water without Lewis, but there will be a bit of dropoff that’s for sure.

– Yes, it’s the year of the Tackle Apocalypse with Sebastian Vollmer being the latest victim to go down with what is likely a concussion. But in comes Bryan Stork to save the day, playing tackle for the first time in his career and doing a pretty good job.

I don’t know how things can get much worse at the tackle spot. Praying the Cannon re-appears this week, Vollmer’s okay and then we’ll okay if we can just keep them healthy til the end. I’m definitely not convinced we can.

– Gotta love the balls of the onside kick early in the game. That’s the kind of “take control” performance you want against an inferior team at home and I thought it sent a strong message.

– We were all worried about losing the legend Vince Wilfork, but what a job Alan Branch and Malcom Brown are doing inside. Branch forced a fumble and blew up a couple runs by himself. Brown gets better each week and plays with excellent pad level and strength. Along with solid edge play from Ninkovich (who did lose the edge a couple times on the Redskins only drive) and Chandler Jones, the Pats run defense has been as good as it’s been since 2012, when they were the 6th best run defense by Football Outsider’s DVOA metric.

– I think I’ve finally figured LeGarrette Blount out. If it’s a tough front that likes to stop the run, he’s not very good. But against a run defense that’s middle of the pack or worse, or especially poor tacklers? He gonna eat.

– The Pats put Ryan on Garcon and Butler on Jackson. He was just coming back from injury, but Jackson was eliminated by Butler. Might be an area to examine in A22 Review, but Jackson had six targets, three catches, 15 yards with a long of nine yards. After getting torched in training camp last summer as a rookie, Butler showed some progress against the speedy deeeeeep threat.

– Predictable breakout game for LaFell as he looks to be back in sync with Brady. Nine targets, five catches for 102 yards for the physical receiver. It sucks to probably lose Lewis but it’s nice to have LaFell back to bring his outside presence.

– You the sign of a good pass defense? When they play action then check back down to the running back they didn’t hand off to. Seeing it more and more the last couple years and it’s a nice sign no one is open.

– The defense still really needs Sheard back. Chandler and Ninkovich are going to wear out playing every snap again. Initial reports were Sheard’s ankle was minor, but here we are a month later and he still hasn’t been seen on the field. Off it he looks fine, no limp, cast or otherwise. So the wait continues…

– Duron Harmon went down too but walked off and seemed okay after the game. Losing him would really limit what McCourty could be used for, so hopefully he just took one in the jewels or something. But after Sheard/Cannon’s “minor” injuries who knows.

– I can’t even get through an entire Posits and not mention those we sometimes take for granted like Edelman and Gronk, but both were clutch per usual. Getting to the playoffs with them healthy matters above all else. I’m not sure there’s a tougher receiver in the NFL than Julian Edelman. Fierce, quick, he’s a nightmare to cover and play against no matter what you want to label him.

– And then, there’s Tom Brady who finally threw his first shitty interception of the year. I’m glad that’s out of the way! 

– Always nice to see the Broncos lose, even if it was to the Colts. That’s a good tie breaker, the Pats could be a win in Denver away from a solid two-game lead for homefield advantage.

– Guess what? The Patriots haven’t beat Eli Manning since the 2007 16-0 game! This includes SB42, 2011′s regular season matchup, and SB46, all of which featured Eli making a late drive to pull out the win. I’d love to put a couple demons to rest this Sunday!

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Washington Redskins

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These are the weeks that the Patriots’ “one game at a time” and “everyone is good and capable of beating us” mantra must really be put to the test. Look, it’s nothing against the Redskins, they’re not that terrible and I’m sure if the game unfolds in a specific way they very well could hand the Patriots their first meaningful home loss since 2012, but it’s just so hard to see that happening and thus hard to get fired up for this game.

I do try to cherish every regular season game, because in two short months we’ll be hitting the playoffs and before you know it the offseason will be upon us. There are just so many storylines with just about every other team in the NFL that give you something to get at least a little bit excited about, but with the Redskins I got zippo.

Still it’s a chance to get better and see some of our weak spots challenged a bit. But really all I care about is getting a win without losing anyone to injury for the season. 

With that in mind, here’s the gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

These offensive gameplans get easier to write every week. I could just write, “Do what we do, see if they can stop it or we have an off day” and then that’s it. But schematically the Patriots don’t really need to adjust their gameplan each week because it simply boils down to getting the ball in Gronk/Edelman/Lewis’ hands as much as possible and then finishing teams off with the power rushing of Blount.

Maybe a defense can force the Patriots to go to Amendola or Chandler in some key moments, but when those guys come through in those moments there’s really not much else an opponent can do.

What I think is important to focus on are the areas that I’m not quite sold are rock solid yet. The offensive line would be the place to start, although they’re really just a Marcus Cannon return away from still having their most experienced line possible. It’s likely Jackson and Mason are out, and we know we’re getting Fleming at RT again, but an interior line of Kline-Andrews-Wendell is solid, and I’m curious to see how they deal with the size of Terrence Knighton who did give them some problems in the past.

The big question is what happens when Stork comes back. Can you work a center rotation in-game, or is that undesirable? It’s hard to yank Andrews, even for the biggest Stork supporter like myself, but if the Pats get a comfortable lead this week, it could be the right time to give Stork some snaps. It’s still pretty strange to have no depth at tackle or guard, but too many good centers.

Hopefully Cannon gets back soon, Vollmer can go back to right tackle and then they can figure out how everything in the middle will work.

The Redskins are 10th in passing yards allowed-per-game (that’s certainly going up after this one) so I’d like to see more of Brandon LaFell getting involved in the offense. Lewis has been the biggest addition this year, but if/when LaFell gets back to his 2014 level I shudder to think about how potent this offense will be.

Ryan Kerrigan’s availability is a big storyline in this one because without him I’m mainly thinking about targeting the Redskins’ run defense, ranked 30th in yards-per-game. It would be nice to protect Gronk, Edelman et al with just a good old fashioned ground-and-pound with Blount, who has been somewhat quiet in recent weeks.

Defensive Gameplan

DeSean Jackson (most likely back from injury) and tight end Jordan Reed are the headliners for the Redskins offense and I think they present some interesting challenges for the Patriots’ defense, while Pierre Garcon is their reliable chain mover.

Covering tight ends has been markedly improved this season, as the Pats have gone from 30th last year to 5th this year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. Credit has to go to Patrick Chung, who’s been remarkable in his second stint with the Pats now that they’re not asking him to be a Cover-2 deep safety anymore, nor are they asking him to cover slot receivers. McCourty also gets some credit as he’ll come down and cover TEs on clear passing downs as well, so expect some combination of them on Reed.

As for Jackson, this will be another pure speed test for the defense after not really seeing someone like him since Antonio Brown in the opener. But I’d think given the rest of the threats around him that the Pats might use Ryan at the line on Jackson with Harmon over the top. Butler might be better served taking Pierre Garcon one-on-one.

Otherwise, we have a good bead on the Patriots defense now. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch are the top two tackles, with Easley coming on in passing situations, often with Geneo Grissom, who has settled into an interior sub rusher role after we thought he was more of a defensive end. 

I am also curious to see if there is more of the 4 safety/3 corner look that we saw last week a few times. This features Harmon as the deep centerfield safety, Chung and Richards covering the seams in zone, McCourty manning up a tight end and the corners manning up the rest of the receivers. I like this package because it can take away a lot of easy passes and brings an element of physicality multiple DB packages often lack.

But ultimately if the Pats set the edge, tackle well and win their one-on-one pass rush opportunities they should be fine limiting Cousins et al.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Reed: I like to start by taking away any safety blanket an inexperienced quarterback has and Reed is that for Cousins. Those are the easy throws and jamming Reed at the line is a no-brainer. Eliminating the first read and easiest throw will put pressure on Cousins that should result in turnovers.

2. Butler on Garcon: Garcon is Cousin’s most targeted receiver overall and especially on third down. The veteran should be a good challenge for Butler, but I think making Cousins beat us with DeSean Jackson is the way to go. It will also test our deep threat defense, an area the Pats have struggled the last five seasons. No better time to see where we’re at with it than in this one.

3. Let Them Pick Their Poison: Double Gronk? Double Edelman? Play Dime? Or Nickel? Whatever the Redskins choose to do the Patriots have the pieces to counter and counter hard. As I touched on earlier, Lewis and LaFell are the trickle down problems, while Amendola and Scott Chandler are ready to come through when needed. Whoever is needed will be ready and the Redskins’ in-game adjustments won’t be enough to stop everyone.

4. Chandler Jones vs. Trent Williams: As I wrote yesterday, I think Chandler Jones is the key to the Patriots’ Super Bowl hopes this year, and he gets a great challenge in Trent Williams this week. I don’t see a world where Chandler Jones has a great game and the Patriots lose. If he’s on and getting pressure, the Patriots will be nearly unbeatable. He just has to find the consistency that has somewhat evaded him so far.

5. Win: It might be hard for the fans to excited about this one, but it’s a chance for the team to get better in some areas that still have question marks and finish off half the season undefeated, no easy task that we somewhat take for granted. The page will be turned quickly to the New York Giants, who present good challenges both now and historically. But some games just feel like a no win unless they’re a stress-free blowout and hopefully that’s what this one turns into.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Redskins 13

A Few Patriots Bend Don’t Break Notes

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Hoping to get to a second All-22 breakdown today, this time of the offense, but in my stat review this week it seems like the Patriots defense is settling in as we hit the halfway point of the season.

I think the remarkable thing is how Belichick’s defenses always tend to exhibit similar characteristics and this one seemed to have “get it” pretty quick. Last year was somewhat the exception because of the quality of CB1. Nothing against the very solid job Malcolm Butler has done this year, but when you can have Revis eliminate a top threat it really has a major effect across the defense.

But this year the Patriots are playing some very good football, but it’s characterized as always by “bend don’t break”, which is considered a negative by a lot of Patriots fans, but I’m here to tell you, more teams should subscribe to it because it works.

The big key is the tackling by the Patriots secondary. You might beat them for a play but you’re not going to run and make it an even bigger play. They’ll tackle you where you catch it and then force you to keep executing to get into the end zone.

You might even break a run through their defensive line, but again, the secondary won’t let you get much further than that.

But what stands out most to me (and it’s related to tackling) is the yards-per-drive which is lower than it’s been since 2007.

Now all you “yeah but they haven’t played anybody good” people can settle down. You can only play who’s on your schedule and just because you aren’t playing Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr (?) every week doesn’t minimize what your defense has done well.

All I’m saying is the trends are pointing in the right direction. And as I continue to say, this team will go as far as Chandler Jones takes it. I hate to oversimplify it but it’s just about that simple. Hightower and Collins are great players, but stopping the good quarterbacks in the playoffs will be about Chandler winning his one-on-one matchups.