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third down

Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

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The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

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Third-Down Offensive Personnel Deep Dive

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It shouldn’t be a surprise the Patriots’ third-down offense suffered without Julian Edelman in 2017, they fell from 4th to 10th in the league. Now they’ll be without Danny Amendola as well.


Using the impressive Sharp Football Analysis, I took a quick deep dive into how the offensive personnel changed between 2016 and 2017. How they compensated without Edelman…what worked, what didn’t.

Here’s what I found:

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Breaking Down Patriots’ 3rd Down Nose Dive on Offense

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Third down is the most critical down in football and usually the Patriots are one of the best offenses in the league. In the last four seasons they ranked 6th (2014) and 4th (2016) when they won the Super Bowl and when they didn’t they ranked 16th (2013) and 11th (2015).

This season the loss of Julian Edelman loomed large for then third down offense. Edelman was then most targeted and reliable receiver with the game on the line. However early in then season the Pats didn’t fare too badly,

Through the first eight games, the Pats ranked 3rd on third down, converting 45.9 percent of their chances.

But since then they’ve fallen off dramatically, to the point where over the last four games they’ve converted just 30.2 percent of their third downs, second-worst in the league. All of Tom Brady‘s five interceptions in the last four games have come on third down.

These struggles are coming at the wrong time of year. Is this a critical flaw? Is there any hope in sight? Let’s take a deeper look.

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Patriots-Browns Film Review: Third Down Defense Edition

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In this week’s film review I’m going to take a little more micro look at the third downs that the Patriots failed to get stops on against the Browns. Right now the Patriots are 27th in the NFL in third down defense (44.6 percent, worst since 2010) and 30th in red zone defense (80 percent).

Combine the two and the Patriots are by far the worst third down defense in the red zone in the NFL, giving up a first down 83.3 percent of the time. The second-worst team in the league, Baltimore, is at 70 percent, while the third-worst, Houston, is at 57.1 percent. That shows just how far below the rest of the league the Patriots have been in the critical area of their beloved bend-don’t-break, which depends immensely on third down stops in the red zone.

Now I’m not here to go all doom and gloom on the defense. These stats are certainly concerning, but there’s a long way to go and with Tom Brady back in the mix, we’re just getting our first taste of the real 2016 Patriots. So we can reserve some judgement at this point.

Here’s a look at five third downs against the Browns with what went wrong and how the Pats might fix it.

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It Is What It Is » Patriots’ improvement on third down helped pave way to Super Bowl title

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It Is What It Is » Patriots’ improvement on third down helped pave way to Super Bowl title

If there’s one point I feel like I’m constantly hitting on, it’s the importance of third down on both sides of the ball. Defensively the Pats have struggled in recent years to get off the field, and even this year they were only 16th in the league. But that all changed in the playoffs when that rate dropped to 23.3%.

Offensively they were the best in the playoffs as well, with the two notable fourth quarter conversions to Edelman that basically saved the game.

Patriots defense can’t get off the field on third-and-long

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The Patriots defense has been destroyed by analysts for the better part of three years now for a myriad of specific reasons, and lately the big problem everyone wants to talk about is the back end of the defense.

There’s no question the Pats have struggled against the deep ball, however another area that they’ve had problems in is their defense in third-and-long  situations. For our purposes here we’re defining “long” as 6 or more yards.

Here’s a look at some Patriots teams in the past, and how they’ve fared on 3rd down with 6 or more yards to go. These numbers signify the percent of time the Pats defense failed and gave up a first down:

  • 2001 – 30.2%
  • 2003 – 29.1%
  • 2004 – 28.4%
  • 2007 – 24.8%
  • 2008 – 35.7%
  • 2009 – 28.2%
  • 2010 – 34.5%
  • 2011 – 30.9%
  • 2012 (thru 7 games) – 41.7%

As you can see so far in 2012 getting off the field on third and long has been a problem. And even when you look at the Pats in situations where it’s 3rd-and-7-plus yards they’re still at a 41.0%.

Let’s compare to a few other teams around the NFL this year for some more context:

  • Ravens – 23.6%
  • Saints – 27.9% (32nd in yards/game given up)
  • Bills – 32.7% (32nd in yards allowed)
  • Texans – 15.4% (what a match-up vs Pats O this will be)
  • Jets – 41.1% (well that makes me feel slightly better)
  • Dolphins – 22.0% (what?)

Ironically the Pats have had fewer 3rd-and-longs than any of the other teams mentioned above, which is clearly indicative of how many long balls they’re giving up. But even when they do get teams in a favorable 3rd down situation, where they can force a punt and get the ball back to the offense, they’re not delivering like they have in the past.

Of course for me this comes back to getting more pass rushers on the field in these situations, however at this time the Pats just don’t have the personnel to be able to replace Vince Wilfork with a more up-the-field type.

It seems that Wilfork has been left out there for protection against the run, but it’s not the run that’s been the problem. Just once has a third-and-long been converted via run this year and that was a scramble by Jake Locker. Otherwise no team has even attempted a run when it’s less than 10-yards to go.

Perhaps Myron Pryor is the answer, but who knows if/when he’ll be back and at what capacity. This should surely be an area the Pats need to address during the bye week.

Let’s Get Historical with the Patriots Defense and Third Down

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People are probably sick of me harping on the Patriots third down defense but today I give some historical perspective and show it’s not unprecedented for a team that stinks on third down to win the Super Bowl.

To give some starting context the range of third down percentages generally run from 30% (really good) to about 50% (really bad). Of course the numbers some times skew outside that range but in the big picture sense 90% of the NFL defenses will fall in that range in any given season.

Here are the Patriots third down percentages through the last decade:

  • 2001 – 37% (15th)
  • 2002 – 43% (26th)
  • 2003 – 34% (7th)
  • 2004 – 39% (21st)
  • 2005 – 42% (29th)
  • 2006 – 26% (8th)
  • 2007 – 34% (4th)
  • 2008 – 44% (26th)
  • 2009 – 37% (12th)
  • 2010 – 51% (32nd) (thru 11 games)

To put 2010’s number in even more perspective, the 31st ranked team (Buffalo) is ahead by 6 full points points (45%). Take 6 percentage points off the Bills’ score and they’d be ranked 18th! The Pats are 32nd by a mile.

In the years the Patriots have gone to the AFC Championship game they were 4th, 7th, 8th, 15th and 21st. So it does seem like a good third down defense does correspond somewhat to a Super Bowl contender.

But the Patriots are at the dead bottom right now. And there isn’t necessarily evidence that it’s getting better if you look at the Patriots performance on third downs over the course of the season. It has been consistently inconsistent.

The difference has been key interceptions at key times. Getting turnovers is always nice, but sometimes just forcing an incomplete pass is pretty good too.

Interestingly enough there was a team that won a Super Bowl recently with the lowest ranked third down defense in the NFL. The Colts won a Lombardi Trophy (Peyton Manning’s only one, btw) in 2006 getting off the field just 47% of the time on third down.

So it’s not unprecedented, but for New England to make noise in the playoffs they must continue to force timely turnovers and on the biggest stages when it’s all on the line. Do the Patriots have the playmakers who can make those championship caliber plays?

We’ll know a lot more after Monday night.

Dial something up, Matty P.