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The Best of PatsPropaganda This Week

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It’s a slightly-less-than-exciting Saturday without the Pats in action tomorrow, but here’s all the best Pats reads from the past week.

PatsPropaganda/Mike D’s Analysis

Are the Patriots going “all in” acquiring Aqib Talib?

Counting Down the Top 5 Patriots 4th Round Draft Picks | Bleacher Report

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. the Bye Week

Where Are the New England Patriots Struggling Most on Defense?

All new PatsPropaganda & Frenz Podcast! 11am EST Halloween Patriots Bye Week Spooktacular!

Notes on PFF’s Patriots grades: Week 8 Rams

Breaking Down Biggest Differences Between 2011 and 2012 New England Patriots | Bleacher Report

Trying to remain calm after an impressive Patriots victory

Local/National Pats Coverage

Patriots defense improved with more exotic pressure packages – Patriots – Boston.com

New England Patriots smart to gamble on cornerback Aqib Talib – ESPN Boston

Scar: Center decision as tough as any – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

Tom Brady: Bye week a great time to self-evaluate – Patriots – Boston.com

Lethal Patriots show zig, zag instead – BostonHerald.com

Patriots Pass Rush Behind Last Season’s Pace Despite Adding Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower – New England Patriots – NESN.com

Feasting when it comes to the spread – Patriots – Boston.com

The Red Do Your Job shirts are selling like hot cakes, pick one up for yourself and show some support for BB!

Are the Patriots going “all in” acquiring Aqib Talib?

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On Thursday the Patriots acquired Aqib Talib and a 2013 seventh-round pick for a 2013 fourth-round pick, in a move directly aimed at improving their single biggest trouble spot.

A fourth round pick is fairly significant compensation for a player currently serving a suspension, and with a history of meatball moves.

But at this point in Tom Brady’s career, why not?

The secondary is clearly a weakness for this team and let’s be honest, the only missing ingredient from being a real Super Bowl favorite.

Talib might work out. He might not and walk at the end of the season leaving the Pats holding on to a seventh round draft pick that they gave up a fourth for. We can worry about that in February.

But let’s imagine a world in which he does work out. Most experts seem to think he’s the best defensive back on the Patriots roster the day he walks through the door. That might be a little bold, but there’s no question Talib has talent and size.

To get back to the Super Bowl the Pats will have to shut down some combination of Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub. All of those teams can fling it.

The Pats won’t be so lucky to get a Tim Tebow quarterbacked team in the divisional round. And you can bet whoever they face is going to go after them through the air.

Some think a 4th round pick is too much to give up, but since they lack a 5th and 6th rounder in 2013 it’s not like they had a lot of options. And those picks in the first three rounds could easily be traded down to acquire more mid-round picks if the Pats want to round out their selections.

The Pats history of poor drafting has left me viewing draft picks more as raffle tickets anyway. And at this point the Pats can no longer continue to select ten players every April. There’s not going to be same turnover of veterans like there was in 2008 and 2009. The Patriots are young now, and better served to target specific selections like they did in 2012 with Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower.

If Talib can just solidify one corner position the trade will be well worth it. You can’t underestimate the impact having one good corner can have through the rest of the secondary. Not to say Talib is Revis, but it certainly would allow the Patriots to roll coverages and give help in other areas.

The outcome of this trade cannot be solely judged on whether or not the Pats win the Super Bowl. If their pass defense improves, and they’re able to knock off a couple pass-happy teams I will consider it a success.

But winning a Super Bowl takes 53 guys all on the same page. Can Talib get on the same page? That’s the question. But I like the aggressiveness, especially since Brady isn’t getting any younger and the secondary seemingly not getting any better.

The Best of PatsPropaganda This Week

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Every Saturday we bring you a post only of the best links from here on PatsProp and from around the internet. It’s not often you’ll find a fan base as bummed out after an overtime win over their most hated rival as you did this week with Patriots fans.

Here’s what you might’ve missed:

PatsPropaganda Analysis

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. Rams

Patriots defense can’t get off the field on third-and-long

PatsPropaganda & Frenz Podcast NEW

Notes on Football Outsiders Patriots DVOA Rankings: Week 7

Notes on PFF’s Patriots grades: Week 7 Jets

Trying to keep a positive Patriots perspective

Under-reaction to the Jets gift to the Patriots

Local/National Analysis

October surprise: Five reasons to be excited about the Patriots prospects

One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Rams: Another NFC West test for New England – WEEI | Christopher Price

Fourth-and-wrong – BostonHerald.com

Patriots pass rush will have to get better – Patriots – Boston.com

Breaking Down Rob Ninkovich’s Clutch Plays for New England Patriots | Bleacher Report

Late execution is killing them – Patriots – Boston.com

5 takeaways from Patriots-Jets – Extra Points – Boston.com

Lastly, the greatest Madden prediction of all time:

Patriots defense can’t get off the field on third-and-long

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The Patriots defense has been destroyed by analysts for the better part of three years now for a myriad of specific reasons, and lately the big problem everyone wants to talk about is the back end of the defense.

There’s no question the Pats have struggled against the deep ball, however another area that they’ve had problems in is their defense in third-and-long  situations. For our purposes here we’re defining “long” as 6 or more yards.

Here’s a look at some Patriots teams in the past, and how they’ve fared on 3rd down with 6 or more yards to go. These numbers signify the percent of time the Pats defense failed and gave up a first down:

  • 2001 – 30.2%
  • 2003 – 29.1%
  • 2004 – 28.4%
  • 2007 – 24.8%
  • 2008 – 35.7%
  • 2009 – 28.2%
  • 2010 – 34.5%
  • 2011 – 30.9%
  • 2012 (thru 7 games) – 41.7%

As you can see so far in 2012 getting off the field on third and long has been a problem. And even when you look at the Pats in situations where it’s 3rd-and-7-plus yards they’re still at a 41.0%.

Let’s compare to a few other teams around the NFL this year for some more context:

  • Ravens – 23.6%
  • Saints – 27.9% (32nd in yards/game given up)
  • Bills – 32.7% (32nd in yards allowed)
  • Texans – 15.4% (what a match-up vs Pats O this will be)
  • Jets – 41.1% (well that makes me feel slightly better)
  • Dolphins – 22.0% (what?)

Ironically the Pats have had fewer 3rd-and-longs than any of the other teams mentioned above, which is clearly indicative of how many long balls they’re giving up. But even when they do get teams in a favorable 3rd down situation, where they can force a punt and get the ball back to the offense, they’re not delivering like they have in the past.

Of course for me this comes back to getting more pass rushers on the field in these situations, however at this time the Pats just don’t have the personnel to be able to replace Vince Wilfork with a more up-the-field type.

It seems that Wilfork has been left out there for protection against the run, but it’s not the run that’s been the problem. Just once has a third-and-long been converted via run this year and that was a scramble by Jake Locker. Otherwise no team has even attempted a run when it’s less than 10-yards to go.

Perhaps Myron Pryor is the answer, but who knows if/when he’ll be back and at what capacity. This should surely be an area the Pats need to address during the bye week.

Under-reaction to the Jets gift to the Patriots

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“They are who we thought they were.”

That’s what I kept thinking as I watched Sunday’s ugly win unfold before me. It was almost cruelly the exact same set up we’ve been watching for what seems like years now.

Pats up by double digits. Pats slowly wilt, only to see it stolen away at the last possible moment. Unless they get a turnover, which they did.

Offensively I am encouraged. Slightly. Their performance with the game on the line cannot be swept under the rug. But otherwise it was generally gross, with a slew of drops and an inconsistent line that was missing two starters.  They got the job done, barely, with it all on the line.

So it’s a positive to build off of, however small. Let’s give Mankins next week off too and come back blazing after the bye.

Defensively they’ve still got a ways to go. Obvs. It’s so frustrating to see a weakness exploited again and again, no matter the quarterback or receiver. By this point you’d have hoped for at least a bit of improvement. But no, it’s the same old story with the 2012 Pats, adding another 6 to their average 5.5 20+ plays per game.

They show flashes at times, but it’s never sustained. Stopping the run they’re fine. But when Mark Sanchez is completing 68% of his passes you know something with the pass defense is wrong.

The only thing Pats fans can hope for is that Gregory and Chung come back soon and remain healthy and starting together the rest of the year. If we have to endure another season of hodgepodge on the back end it’s going to be a long season that isn’t going to end pretty.

I believe the offense will start to hit their stride after the bye. They’re still searching for an identity. I don’t know what to expect from the defense. You’d like to think they’ll start to catch on, but at this point it looks like a long shot.

But hey, maybe this is one of those Giants-type seasons where we finish 9-7 but get uber-hot at the right moment?

The Best of PatsPropaganda This Week

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There was lots of good stuff this week if you’re a big fan of bad secondaries and teams that can’t close games out.

For anything you missed here’s the linkage…

PatsPropaganda

Should the Patriots dial up pressure and blitz Sanchez?

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Jets

Turn On The Jets Talks With Pats Propaganda – Jets/Patriots Preview

Pats playmakers need to step up in crunch time

How the Patriots defense can turn it around

Notes on PFF’s Patriots grades: Week 6 Seahawks

Quick hit thoughts on a head-shaking Patriots loss

Pats Beat

Belichick: In-game adjustments big vs. Jets – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

Playbook: Brady and the Patriots’ play action | National Football Post

Patriots coaches dropped the ball as well against Seahawks – Sports – The Boston Globe

Inside look at the Patriots’ top route concept | National Football Post

Morning after: Seahawks 24, Patriots 23 – Extra Points – Boston.com

Secondary: What goes on back there? – Patriots – Boston.com

Pick up one our new PatsPropaganda DO YOUR JOB tees, now in red! Order in the right hand pulldown.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Jets

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The Patriots are coming off one their most embarrassing losses in two-plus seasons, and who better than to help them refocus their efforts than the good old Jets? A solid win over a divisional rival could be just what New England needs to get on track. And once they do get on track they’re going to reel off a lot of wins and be very tough to beat. Just the kind of game the Hoodie ordered!

Our Five Keys to taking down Rexy’s crew after the jump…

1. Be ready for the kitchen sink – If I’m the Jets I’m not holding anything back and going with the most aggressive game plan I can put together. They’re not going to win this game by taking a conservative approach. They need to take shots down the field. They need to use every little Tim Tebow trick they’ve been saving up. They need to go for it on 4th down. Fake punts. Onside kicks. All of it. And the Patriots need to be ready in all three phases. The way to counter aggression is to turn it against your opponent. Stop them on 4th down. Don’t bite on fakes. Be ready for whatever they might throw at you. Just do not let them get rolling with all the tricks and gimmicks, because if they do this is going to be a game.

2. Three 20+ pass plays or less – I’m not so much of a blind homer to believe the Patriots pass defense will suddenly go air-tight on us, and I fully expect the Jets will actually let Mark Sanchez air it out multiple times (look out those sitting near the field). And why shouldn’t they? It’s the Patriots biggest defensive weakness. But instead of the 6 or 7 long passes the Pats have been giving up, let’s just keep it to three. Maybe we could even pick off a couple of them? Regardless the Patriots defense has to be doing a lot of back end coverage work this week, because it doesn’t happen often, but every now and then Sanchez has his deep ball working (see playoffs, 2010). They need to start showing improvement this week back there, things have been stagnant or worse since the Ravens game.

3. Fast and Furious on offense – With all this talk of the evolution of the speedy no-huddle you might remember that the Jets were a major influence on the Patriots desire to play faster on offense. In week two of 2009, with Wes Welker out, the Patriots resorted to putting play numbers on sideline signs to quickly communicate the calls to their offense. Belichick knew Rex Ryan’s style of defense, and that if you give them time to disguise their defense it played right into their hands. The answer? Play fast, force them to react and not dictate, and this should be on full display on Sunday. The Jets defense is sprinkled with youth and inexperience, and on our homefield it’s the perfect recipe for the Blitzkreig.

4. Throw it where Cromartie ain’t – AntonioCromartie has elevated his play since Revis went down, but the depth after him with Kyle Wilson leading the way, is lacking. They’ll move Cro around depending on the situation, but I’d expect to see him on Lloyd for the most part. Welker is the kind of receiver that gives Cro problems. This will likely open things up for Hernandez, who could have a big game. Perhaps the most interesting match-up will be Gronk vs. the new Jets safeties. They were brought in to stop him, let’s see how they do. But with such a talent disparity in coverage it would probably be best to generally avoid Cro whenever possible.

5. Finish – “Finish” will henceforth replace “Win” as the final key each week because that’s how the Patriots are going to start winning these close games they’ve been losing. I’m not going to point fingers at either side of the ball, it’s a team-wide problem and the only way for it to change is for playmakers on both sides of the ball to start stepping up and making plays when the game is on the line. There has not been enough of this yet from the 2012 Patriots and it’s time to re-establish that part of the team’s identity. When an opponent is on the ropes, and the opportunity is there to finish them off, the Past must do so. Whether it’s the defense getting a stop, or the offense getting that final first down or score to seal it. Finish them!