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5 Keys for Patriots vs. Bills

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It would be hard deny I’m a little worried about this game in Buffalo. Yes, the stats look nice for the Pats vs. the Bills over the past decade, Tom Brady has only ever lost twice to them. But those who have watched the games know how close most of those have been, and it’s a pretty sure bet we’re in for another close one this weekend.

Now the Pats come into Buffalo at 1-2, with the closest thing resembling an early season “must win” in the last decade. And make no mistake the Bills are a team that have been constructed in recent years with taking down the Patriots in mind, and they’ve done it in a way that a Patriots uber blogger like myself can appreciate. If I was building a team to take down my beloved team, I’d do it the way the Bills are, though I’d surely still wish I had a couple more weapons on offense and maybe a slightly more consistent quarterback.

They can rush the passer with four, are not afraid to play press man coverage and they have a quick passing game that can eat the soft zone “bend don’t break” defense up. All of these things have given the Patriots fits over recent years.

So this should be an excellent game, and one that requires the Patriots turn in their most complete team effort of the 2012 season. Here are my weekly five keys as to what they’ll need to do to pull out the win and get back to .500.

1. Defensive Disguise: The thing that stands out most with Ryan Fitzpatrick is just how quickly he gets the ball out. He rarely holds it longer than 3 seconds and as a result he is barely ever sacked. He can however be fooled into making some bad throws, especially with such an accelerated decision process, so the Patriots must try to force those throws to the wrong places by disguising what they’re doing. From a personnel standpoint the Patriots have been fairly straightforward on defense, but this week we could finally see some switches, or at the very least, some guys in spots we haven’t seen before, especially from the usual edge rushers. Don’t be surprised to see Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich standing up and walking around. We saw the premiere of the “five and dime” defense against Buffalo a few years back and could see something similar this time around.

2. Interior Chaos: Another way to force Fitzpatrick into his interception-throwing ways is make sure his sight lines are not clear. This is done with an interior rush that can push the pocket and run stunts to keep the throwing lanes murky at best. It’s not something the Patriots have excelled at since losing Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, and they might be hard-pressed to find the personnel to pull it off this week but they’ll have to try something. Part of me wonders if newly-signed Terrell McClain was brought in just for this purpose. Even so expect to see a good dose Jermaine Cunningham and perhaps Brandon Deaderick to try and cause some disruption inside. And if Vince Wilfork could turn in a game like he did in last year’s AFC Championship that would be extremely helpful.

3. Believe it or not, a lot of Ridley: The Bills will run nickel personnel on defense as their base and that will tempt the Patriots to run on them, as it should. The Bills were built to combat Tom Brady’s aerial assault but can the Pats finally break through with their power running game and have that lead the way like the passing game usually does? It would improve their chances in Buffalo by not playing into the strength of their defense. The problem is that the Pats have lacked a significant push from their offensive line in the running game, and Dareus, Williams, and Williams are no pushovers. Still, if the Bills think they have the answer to Tom Brady it might be time to change the question. Ridley has an explosive playmaking ability that the Pats have lacked on the ground in recent years. If he can get going it will take the Bills out of their comfort zone and the Pats could roll.

4. Neutralize Kyle Williams: Anyone who reads this blog knows how much I covet an interior rusher and Kyle Williams is arguably the best penetrator in the NFL. I believe Solder and Vollmer will be able to hold down the edges from the pass rushers but it’s the inside guys of Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and (hopefully) Logan Mankins (who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) that concern me. The problem with an interior guy like Williams is he takes away Brady’s ability to step up, and we’ve seen numerous times when he can’t step up he’s not nearly as effective. If Mankins can’t go this becomes even dicier. Connolly has struggled, Wendell has been inconsistent, and Mankins is still getting back into form before sustaining a hip injury that has limited him. The success of the Patriots offense might very well rest in the hands of how well they deal with Kyle Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent Marcel Dareus.

5. Win: As always it’s the only thing that matters. This is arguably the toughest division game the Patriots will have this season (depending on where the Jets are at come Thanksgiving) and it comes at a critical time for the Patriots. The Bills know the Pats are on the early season ropes, and there’s no question what dropping New England to 1-3 could do for their confidence. The Patriots need to find their identity still on offense, defense and special teams. They’ve had their moments in all three phases but there is still an element of unknown across all of them. 1-3 is not an inescapable hole but things will certainly not get easier with Peyton Manning coming to town next weekend. The Patriots need to send a message to the AFC East and the rest of the NFL that they’re still a team that can win the close ones, especially against a tough divisional opponent on the road. This could really be the game that puts the 2012 Pats on the right track.

Could Patriots make some defensive changes vs. Bills?

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One of the most interesting things about the Patriots defense three games into the 2012 season is how straight forward their personnel groupings have been. If you look back at the last couple years (2010, 2011) you’d find almost wholesale changes from week to week and even down to down.

But this year the Patriots have morphed into a lighter, nickel-front 4-3 base defense that is better equipped to defend the pass on all downs. The result is that while in 2010 and 2011 the Patriots were trending toward nearly two-thirds of the snaps in their sub-defense, this year the trend is going back down toward fifty percent (52.9).

Through three weeks we’ve seen minimal changes on defense. The only notable exception being Sterling Moore passing Ras-I Dowling on the depth chart at nickel corner. But outside of giving guys occasional rest what we’ve seen is:

Ninkovich-Wilfork-Love-Jones

Hightower-Spikes-Mayo

McCourty-Chung-Gregory-Arrington

In the nickel either Spikes or Hightower comes off and Moore comes on. In the dime Spikes, Hightower and Love are replaced by Moore, Tavon Wilson (money position), and Jermaine Cunningham (interior rusher). And that’s pretty much it.

As someone who has been tracking the Patriots defensive personnel and packages extensively over the past three seasons I can tell you it’s never been this straightforward and simple.

But Sunday night’s defensive performance was a nightmare, so could that prompt the first real significant changes to this simplified defensive approach? Unlike the Ravens, who like to take shots down the field, the Bills get the ball out in a hurry, so perhaps some tweaks are needed to better defend them.

Here are three possibilities as I see it:

1. Moore in for Arrington –  Arrington was picked on early and often against the Ravens and perhaps he would excel if he could just focus on nickel back duties. Moore has had a knack for making plays and seems to be on the rise since the start of season. Maybe it’s time to give him a shot at starting on the outside.

2. Tracy White in at nickel linebacker – Spikes and Hightower have been rotating at this spot, but both really struggled in coverage against the Ravens. This could be where the Pats miss Dane Fletcher the most, and an area where everyone assumed Bobby Carpenter was going to help out before he got cut. The Pats threw White into this spot in the Super Bowl, along with a couple other times late last season. He’s not ideal, but against the quick-throwing Bills he could have a quickness and experience edge that could helpful.

3. Newly-signed Terrell McClain in for Cunningham at interior rusher – The interior pass rush was a position we talked a lot about this off-season and Cunningham was somewhat of a surprise to win the spot. So far Cunningham has one sack, and no QB hits or pressures despite showing some flash in the preseason. Perhaps McClain, who is known to have some get-upfield burst and is a more traditional inside pass rush presence, should get a shot. Against the Bills the Patriots must cause some interior disruption even if they don’t get to the quarterback. If there’s one area we could see some changes this week I think this is it. Perhaps even Trevor Scott getting a chance, or Brandon Deaderick if he can get healthy.

Quick hit reaction to the Patriots 20-18 loss to the Cardinals

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I’m a big picture guy so I hope no one’s expecting me to overreact to today’s stinker. In simplest terms the Patriots lost Aaron Hernandez to an injury and seemed unprepared to alter their game plan accordingly. In the first half especially they looked disjointed on offense.

At one point it felt like Stevan Ridley making something out of nothing was the only offense they were getting. 

Brandon Lloyd made some great catches but I wouldn’t call him and Brady “deadly” just yet. Still, he seems to be getting it, and is showing that he can be a threat outside the numbers that we so badly need.

The defense had some patches on inconsistency but ultimately they made enough plays to still keep the offense in it. This is a positive sign. Spikes’ forced fumble is a big play to build on.

Special Teams was somewhere in between the offense and defense. Gostkowski made four field goals but the only one we’ll remember is the one he missed. And obviously the blocked punt, was a huge play that basically won  it for Arizona.

We’ll have all week to speculate about why Edelman is playing over Welker. Is Welker dinged? Are they just trying to manage him? Or is Edelman simply outplaying him? I’m sure we’ll get plenty of this over the next six days.

Sterling Moore looks to have overtaken Ras-I Dowling for the time being as the third cornerback. That could just be a game plan thing though I’m not sure how much we saw of Dowling.

I’ve just never felt comfortable criticizing an offensive coordinator for play calling, but I will say a lot of Josh McDaniels calls left me scratching my head. It was like without Hernandez they lost 80% of what they wanted to do.

In my game preview I thought the Pats would move fast and try more hurry up. It seemed to work later in the game, but where was it early on?

I just can’t get caught up in debating the replacement refs calls. We’ve had good calls and bad calls for us and against us over the years, it’s up to the players to adjust to how the game is being called.

Losses like these will happen early in the season. We see them (almost) every year. Jets in ‘09, ’10. Bills in ’11. It’s a little troublesome that this happened at home, but in the long term an out of conference loss in week two isn’t going to have overwhelming ramifications.

I have no doubt they can overcome the loss of Hernando, they’ll just be a little more conventional. I don’t think there’s any reason to be overly concerned that this offense is in trouble long term. They still need to figure out how to beat teams that aggressive man with them, but it seems like they have the pieces in place to challenge it better this year. Things just went wrong from the start and kept going wrong, and they couldn’t get the ship righted.

The main issues to focus on now:

  1. How long is Hernandez out for?
  2. How will the offense adjust without him?
  3. Can the defense continue to build on these two games?

Now we move on to an AFCCG rematch with the Ravens in Baltimore. Both teams are coming off losses, as if it wasn’t going to be a total war already. Hard to believe us or the Ravens will be 1-2 by next Monday. 

Hats off to the Cardinals for a well-executed game plan. There’s no doubt they were the better team today, but there’s still plenty to be optimistic about in New England.

5 keys for Patriots vs. Cardinals

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As required by the NFL blogger code of content here are our five key areas to watch this weekend when the New England Patriots take on the Arizona Cardinals.

1. Challenge the edges of the Cardinals defense – There’s no question the strength of the Cardinals defense is along their defensive line, but their outside linebackers struggled in week one. Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield are inexperienced and haven’t seen a precision offensive attack like the Pats’ blitzkreig. The Patriots were extremely successful against the Titans running Stevan Ridley at the edges and I’d expect that to continue this week. So whether it’s on the ground or through the air, challenging the outside linebackers looks like the way to go, especially if we can get them matched up on Gronk or Hernando. What they’ll want to avoid is trying to run right into the teeth of Calais Campbell, Dan Williams, and Darnell Dockett.

2. Jam Larry – I’m most looking forward to seeing how the Pats take away the Cardinals top weapon, Larry Fitzgerald. Regardless if they have one cornerback on him regardless of where he lines up or just roll coverage to him it will be important to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage. A common strategy against the Pats defense is to attack them with short passes and with Kevin Kolb’s experience in the west coast offense in Philly I’d expect we’ll see a good deal of this from the Cardinals. The Patriots defense cannot allow Fitz to make quick catches and then make plays with his feet. Force Kolb to hold the ball, and allow some time for the pass rush to get there. If Larry is given a cushion he’s going to eat us alive.

3. Spread and Dead – The Cardinals defense cannot be allowed dictate what they want to do. Going to the no-huddle will allow the Pats to counter the defense’s aggressiveness, while also testing the conditioning of the Cardinals d-line and the communication amongst some of the more inexperienced players.  I’d expect this means a little more of Woodhead than we saw last week, but Ridley should still get his fair share of touches. This could also be where we truly see how close Brady and Brandon Lloyd are to being on the same page. Don’t be surprised to see Wes Welker with 8+ catches either.

4. Protect our Tommy – Yes, this is somewhat of a generic key but it’s really true for this weekend. Campbell and Dockett combined for 10 QB pressures and 4 sacks against the Seahawks. Using the no-huddle can help keep them at bay, but the Patriots offensive line must play up to the task. There’s no secret that when teams get to Brady the Pats offense becomes very ordinary. The Cardinals will throw a fair share of blitzes as well so the communication must be airtight. The entire key to the Cardinals game plan should be to get to Brady by any means necessary, and it’s up to the o-line to make sure that doesn’t happen. It’s a new group, and Dan Connolly may or may not be out there. This will be an excellent test for them, against an experienced and physical three-man front.

5. Win – As always, this is all that matters. The Pats have always been tough to beat in Foxboro and the last thing they want to do is allow an NFC West team to come in and push them around on their turf. We know they’re probably due for a dud sometime in September but with a challenging three weeks ahead the Pats can’t afford to slip up against a team they should really beat.

Will Patriots attack the Cardinals like they attack the Steelers?

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There’s been a lot of talk this week of how much like the Steelers the Cardinals are in their scheme and style, and thus it’s been helpful to take a look back at the Pats games against Pittsburgh recently to get a sense of what the game plan might be.

The tough thing is that the Pats are one of the few teams not afraid to try and run on the Steelers. In 2010 the Pats averaged 4.3 yards per carry and went over 100 yards. But will they be willing to do the same thing against Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell, the unquestionable strongholds of the Cardinals D? Tough to say, especially since they lack a true power back like they had with Benjarvus Green-Ellis who pounded the Steelers in 2010.

Offensively the one element that has almost always been present against the Steelers is the use of misdirection and trick plays, most memorably the Brady-Moss-Brady-Gaffney TD bomb from 2007. This can be a good way to get an over-aggressive defense to hurt themselves, and it’s a safe bet the Pats will have some surprises ready for the Cardinals.

But the biggest element offensively to me seems that we should expect a lot of spread and hurry up. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to line up across from the Pats and have a drag-out fight, and what the Pats usually do against teams like that is never give them a chance to get settled.

Force Campbell and Dockett to be on their heels, spread their defense out and pick the best match-up. So for this reason I think it’s safe to say we’ll see a lot more of Wes Welker this week.

Defensively I think we’ll continue to see what we’ve seen all year from the Pats. Their Double Nose 4-3 was dominant against the Titans in every facet so there’s no reason to try and protect that from the Cardinals running or passing games.

The most interesting match-up of the day will of course be Larry Fitzgerald against the Pats secondary. We can’t forget New England was the worst team in the NFL last year against #1 wide receivers, so this is a real chance to show some improvement over 2011.

The question will be if they try to match up one DB the whole time on him, or maintain sides like they usually do and just try to execute regardless of who is on him.

There’s no question that Pittsburgh is a more talented team than Arizona, especially on offense, but the principals that have made the Patriots so successful against Pittsburgh (6 wins, 3 losses since the 2001 AFCCG) should remain in place. There’s a reason the Patriots have lit up the vaunted Steelers defense more than anyone else, they know how to play against them. It’s just a matter of execution, just like it will be Sunday.