bill belichick

Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

October 24, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

Pats Posits: Balanced Pats Show They Can Play with Anyone

October 15, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots outlasted the Chiefs on Sunday, delivering the shootout everyone thought they saw coming with a 43-40 win. Not to toot my own horn but I feel like my gameplan was especially accurate this week, right down to the final prediction. I’ve got a good bead on the team this year and while you never want to give up 40 points, I still believe this is one of the most solid Patriots teams in recent seasons.

This is a new NFL, and all that really matters is surviving against an offense as good as the Chiefs, just as the Chiefs must’ve felt the same way about the Patriots. Defenses can’t dominate anymore. It just comes down to getting red zone stops and making the plays that matter at the end. That’s what the Patriots did last night and they continue to show great mental toughness as all Belichick teams tend to do.

The offense continues to make strides behind Sony Michel‘s running and the development of Josh Gordon. The defense had three bad plays but otherwise did everything you can ask from a defense facing such a diverse and explosive offense. The special teams were great as far as field goals go and terrible at kickoffs.

So yeah, it wasn’t all rainbows but the corrections are extremely specific and fixable. This Patriots team executed the gameplan nearly perfectly for 90 percent of the game, but even just those few plays where they messed up were enough to take the contest down to the final possession. If this team stays intact for the next few months they’re going to be right there in the hunt at the end per usual.

More on everything from the first epic regular season win of 2018 in the Posits…

It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

October 11, 2018 by Mike Dussault

As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

Film Review: Patriots vs Colts

October 9, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots rolled to a second impressive win in a row, beating the Colts with their second 38 burger in a row. With Julian Edelman back, Josh Gordon immediately working his way in and Sony Michel‘s continued improvement, the chatter about a lack of weapons has quieted down. Which could only mean one thing, it’s time to complain again about the defense.

After watching the All-22 I continue to really like what I’m seeing from the Patriots defense and despite some holes in the win over the Colts, they are playing as simple and fast as I can remember them. The tackling is locked down. The edge is being set. The extra yardage and busted coverages are slowly disappearing. It all looks impressive and was on good display for most of Thursday night.

The Patriots should have earned a ton of confidence after the last two wins have wiped out the bad taste of back-to-back road losses. Still, there will always be questions about the defense because this league is designed for offenses to succeed. The question is whether or not the defense makes the key plays down the stretch and that will most likely be the case against the Chiefs this weekend.

Here’s a bunch on what else stood out from the film review.

Belichick Hoodie Update: A New Cut Hoodie Rises

October 2, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots bounced back after two road losses with a merciless domination of the Dolphins back in the friendly confines of Foxboro. Getting into stats before October is a sample size recipe for overreaction, but now in Week 5 let’s take a quick look at the signature statistic of PatsPropaganda, the Bill Belichick Hoodie Database.

Last season, the Hot Jacket surpassed the infamous cut gray hoodie in wins and win percentage. It was once again the centerpiece of the Belichick gameday attire. The biggest twist of the year was when Belichick wore the old blue Reebok Hoodie under his winter jacket in the AFC Divisional game against the Titans.

Pats Posits: Order Restored

October 1, 2018 by Mike Dussault

And just like that the New England Patriots reminded everyone what they seem to forget every single year no matter what — that a well-coached football team can quickly go from looking terrible to dominant when everyone is playing on the same page. The Patriots didn’t suddenly go out and grab a bunch of new more talented players, they just all did their job and the result was a confidence-restoring win over the Dolphins.

The defense didn’t allow a drive over five plays long and forced two turnovers. The offense got Sony Michel going and the positive effects trickled down through the rest of their game, as they converted 10 of 15 third downs and put up a season-high 38 points. It was a total team effort and was beautiful to watch.

Yes, it feels like order has been restored to our lives. The Patriots are not done and with the promise of Josh Gordon, who showed some flashes in 18 snaps with two catches both coming on third downs, along with the return of Julian Edelman, it’s hard to feel anything but good vibes now about this Patriots team and that’s a welcome relief after the last two weeks.

It’s a quick turnaround to face the Colts on Thursday night and there are still areas to improve, but at 2-2 the Pats are still very much in control of their season and showing signs of how high the bar should be set for this team despite what all the critics murdered them for over the past two weeks.

More on that and everything else in the Posits…

Pats Posits: This Feels Different

September 24, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots have had plenty of September stinkers over the years where an average-to-terrible team goes toe-to-toe with them and either flames out right at the end or dispatches the Patriots, and the punditry gleefully jumps to pronounce the dynasty dead.

Usually, in those games, it was just a case of a good football team playing bad football and the Pats would snap out of it with a statement win near the end of the month and then they’d cruise into the playoffs, constantly getting better and fighting through the kind of injuries that would derail every other team.

I’ve spent the early parts of those seasons being level-headed, reminding everyone how hard it is to win in the NFL, how amazing it was that we just took for granted that the Pats had been doing it for going on two decades. Because it was always clear to me that those Patriots teams that sputtered in September were far better than they looked on the field. I still believed that last week after the perfect storm loss to Jacksonville, but now, after an all-around flat performance in Detroit, even I’m starting to wonder if this is finally the year the Patriots just don’t have it.

Boil it down and we’re seeing a team that lost some key clutch playmakers while none of the replacements have stepped up. Aside from Dietrich Wise, no other young player has shown anything. Coming off the Jags loss it was easy to just assume the Pats would bounce back, but that meant brushing aside the losses of Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers, arguably their two best defenders.

So yes, this looks exactly how you’d expect a team to look that doesn’t have Amendola, Edelman, Lewis, Chung, and Flowers, while Dont’a Hightower, Duron Harmon and Devin McCourty have begun to regress and none of the developmental players have developed. No one outside of Brady-Gronk-White and Wise for a down or two were able to make any impact.