PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Tavon’s time? Rookie could start – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

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Tavon’s time? Rookie could start – New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

If Gregory can’t go Sunday it should be interesting to see how things trickle down in the secondary, especially in the dime. Nate Ebner and Ras-I Dowling could see some more snaps. Personally I’d prefer moving Moore back to safety, keep Wilson at Money, and stick Ras-I on the outside in the dime only. Nate Ebner on the back end against Peyton Manning is not what I want to see.

Through four games, Wilson has logged 38.8 percent of the defensive snaps. His primary role has been at the “money” position in the dime defense (6 defensive backs), which is a linebacker-type responsibility. He also has rotated into the mix in the base defense, and overall, he has shown a nose for the ball at times (2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries). The trickle-down effect of not having Gregory, whose smarts have been lauded by the coaching staff, would also likely impact the dime defense. If Wilson remains in the traditional safety role, rookie Nate Ebner could get bumped up the safety depth chart and play the “money” position. The Patriots have other options, as cornerback Sterling Moore has safety experience, and Ras-I Dowling has also played the “money” spot this year.

Bruschi’s Breakdown: New England Patriots must match wits with Peyton Manning – ESPN Boston

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Bruschi’s Breakdown: New England Patriots must match wits with Peyton Manning – ESPN Boston

You have to match wits with the mind that a quarterback like Manning has, to be able to take control at the line of scrimmage like he does. If you give him the answers to the equation pre-snap, and you just stand there, he will switch the play to the best possible play that has the highest possible percentage of being successful against that defense. For example, if you have only six men in the box – because Peyton has you spread out with those Colts-like formations – he’s going to run the ball. In this case, that means Willis McGahee is going to get the handoff. Once that gets established, you might see a defense bring a safety down to help that, as the Steelers did in the season opener with Troy Polamalu. When that happens, Manning switches to a pass play. With the passing game – one-deep, a two-shell look with two safeties high – there are certain answers to those types of defenses that Manning knows. With two-deep, try to attack the middle of the field in that Cover 2. In Cover 3, attack the outsides. It’s things like that, reading your leverage pre-snap. You can’t give Manning that because he’ll tell his receiver what to play. If it’s obvious man coverage, he’ll run that tear screen that Pierre Garcon ran, that Reggie Wayne ran, and now Demaryius Thomas is running. So you just can’t show him the same thing every time.

As someone who’s not familiar with the X’s and O’s of the game, I’m reading Bedard and others comment on how our corners are giving up too much space to receivers off the line of scrimmage – thinking back to Torrey Smith’s red zone TD in week 3 – and how the Pats seemingly refuse to revise that approach in coverage. Do you think it’s a product of BB not adjusting his game to modern O or a deeper philosophy permitting short-yardage gains vs. the deep ball? Maddening to watch at times.

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Excellent question and yes, absolutely maddening to watch at times. I think it’s fair to question this tactic, and I don’t really have a good answer for why they continue to run this off-man style of coverage at times.

The simplest guess is that it’s part of the bend-don’t-break style the Pats have been fond of. But the problem in the last few years is that the defense is breaking. They’re getting beat long more than ever. So if you’re bending and breaking you’re not really doing anything. But perhaps the first step should be to shore up deep pass defense and then worry about giving up the short stuff because the corners are five yards off the receiver at the snap.

There’s absolutely no question that Belichick has a conservative defensive philosophy overall, he’s never going to be one to dial up major blitzes and take an overly aggressive approach. He prefers disguise and picking his spots, and forcing continued execution by the opponent.

So on some level we just have to accept that, but it certainly seems clear that they need to be more careful about when and where they use this off-man technique for their corners. Either they’re not equipped to effectively run it, or the quality of quarterbacks is too good now.

The real head scratcher about it is that Brady must be eating it up in practice as well, so I’m not sure where they see it working. It would be nice to see more press man, but we saw the experiment go up in flames last year. We’d wondered if Ras-I Dowling might make a difference this year and allow them to experiment a little more with that this year but obviously he’s been missing in action.

So ultimately this is year three of the Chung/Arrington/McCourty trio. The front seven is showing signs of coming together, but if the back end can’t do the same there need to be changes, whether it’s personnel, scheme or both.

What are your early impressions of Devin McCourty this year? He dropped a couple (few?) interceptions, but he’s looked better in coverage than last year overall.

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McCourty’s few errors this year have been ones that have drawn a lot of attention, but overall he’s really bounced back strong this year. Let’s compare his completions allowed percentage over the past three seasons for the first four games.

  • 2010: 63.7%, 0 ints, 3 passes defended
  • 2011: 65.4%, 0 ints, 3 passes defended
  • 2012: 41.4%. 2 ints, 5 passes defended

It’s pretty clear his performance thus far in 2012 has been the best start to any of his seasons, giving up catches on just 41.4% of the plays he’s targeted is impressive. For comparison, Revis is usually around 40% for his full season ratings.

McCourty’s ratings across the board per ProFootballFocus.com have not just been all positive, but in the green, signifying they were well above average. Four games, four green grades in pass coverage. He’s been consistent and making plays on the ball, that’s all you can ask.

The end of the Baltimore game and the deserved pass interference call put a bad taste in a lot of Pats fans mouths, but overall McCourty looks better than ever. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his return to 2010 form has the defense looking like the ball hawks they were in 2010.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Broncos

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It’s time to begin a new chapter in the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning annals, and personally I’m glad that the scheduling gods lined things up just so it would happen. There are only so many times these two legendary quarterbacks will face each other again so we should take a moment to enjoy what we’re seeing.

Of course having Peyton on the Broncos certainly gives it a new flavor and the fact that the Patriots torched Denver in the playoffs has to give New England an underlying confidence.

Still, the Pats have not seen many quarterbacks with the skill of Manning in recent seasons so he should provide an excellent test for a secondary that remains the only major question mark for this 2012 edition of the Pats.

Even if a lot of Manning’s balls wobble, they still get to where they need to be.

Here are my Five Keys for the Pats to heehaw the Donkeys.

1. Secondary in Sync: The defensive line and linebackers are really starting to come into their own but Peyton knows how to get rid of the ball so you can’t count on the pass rush to be what slows him down. So it comes down to is Pats secondary all being on the same page, disguising their coverages, and most of all not making mental errors. The pass defense is giving up more deep passes per game than they have in a decade plus, so it’s hard not to look at the safety play first and foremost. Devin McCourty, despite a few bad plays, has really bounced back. Now the rest of them need to pick it up. Kyle Arrington finally has been able to move inside to star in nickel packages, a spot he seemingly is perfect for. He’s been in the system for a while now, yet his inconsistent play is continues. Sterling Moore surpassed Ras-I Dowling as the outside corner in nickel and dime. Ras-I remains an enigma more baffling (due to his 32nd overall draft slot) than Shawn “Crazy Legs” Crable. The Patriots pass defense could prove a lot this week, or they could show they’re the same old squad that gives up passing yards by the bushel.

2. Take our “Ridlen” (h/t @DanteSterling): Last week’s emergence of the run game was extremely positive, though I wouldn’t call the Pats a ground and pound team just yet. They won’t be afraid to run when opponents play them with DB-laden defenses, but whether or not they can exert their will, like they did against the Bills, against a top notch front like Houston or Baltimore remains to be seen. With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil they’d love nothing more than to be able to pin back their ears and get after Tom Brady in the pocket, so you’ve got to get them on their heels a bit. The Pats had 280 yards rushing in their two games against the Broncos last year, so “Ridlen” and Woodhead could really do some damage this year, and if they do look out.

3. Brady goes deep to Lloyd: While the run game should be effective the Broncos can be susceptible to the pass as well, and the deep ball especially. As Greg Bedard has been saying all week, the shots down the field should be there, just like they were there for the Texans, now it’s just a matter of Brady and Lloyd finally connecting. This is the last missing ingredient on offense, a couple caught long balls would add another dynamic for opposing defenses to worry about. We haven’t seen a 50+ yard touchdown this year. It’s time for that to change. And you can’t tell me Lloyd and McDaniels would enjoy anything more.

4. Finish him!: As we’ve seen in the last five Pats games against him you have to finish Peyton Manning, and finishing is something the Pats have struggled with in recent years. So regardless of a lead or deficit, it’s going to take four quarters, and ultimately pounding the final nail in the coffin when the opportunity is there. Whether that’s picking up a gotta-have-it first down, or getting a critical third down stop, players will have to step up and end the game on the Patriots terms. If they do not they could face yet another horrible last minute defeat that we’re all too familiar with, especially against the Manning brothers.

5. Win: As always this is all that matters, especially in a conference game against an opponent you could see again down the road. There is little doubt the Patriots should be able to move the ball, the question is whether their defense can make enough stops to put some distance in between them and Manning. Personally I relish the chance to have one of our greatest weaknesses tested by an excellent quarterback. He might still not be full capacity, but he’s a lot better than most of the schmoes we’ve seen around here lately.

If the Pats want to get back to the Super Bowl they’re going to have to knock off some combination of Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, or even Peyton again, and getting lucky again with a sub-par pass defense is unlikely to happen for a second year in a row. The time for the secondary to start improving is now, and getting a win against an elite passer would be a big first step and a confidence-boosting sticker on the helmet.