tom brady

Pats Posits: Music City Disaster

November 12, 2018 by Mike Dussault

There’s simply no way to put a silver lining around the Patriots completely flat performance against the Titans. They were bad in all three phases and made just a handful of plays over the course of the entirety of the game. The up-and-down secondary, which had recently strung together some solid performances, fell down hard yesterday, led by Stephon Gilmore, just as everyone was becoming assured he was a superstar shutdown corner.

The kickoff and punt teams, sub-par all year, once again were bad, giving the Titans favorable field position all day and putting the defense even more in the crosshairs of a balanced offensive attack that the Pats had no answer for.

Then there was the offense, which went 3-15 on third down and put up just 40 rushing yards. Yes, those things go very much hand in hand, as the smoke and mirrors offense finally collapsed against a team that knew Tom Brady through and through.

Unfortunately, we’re at the phase of the Patriots dynasty that every bad game will be touted as the end, the cliff, the harbinger of doom for Belichick and Brady. This one will certainly get that treatment over the bye week as I’m sure the radio airwaves are full of long-held bile that has been waiting to explode.

There’s no question, the 2018 Patriots were not on the upward trajectory I assumed they were. They continue to be two different teams at home and on the road, a strange dichotomy for a team that went undefeated on the road for a season-and-a-half from 2016 to 2017. And now, they’re behind the eightball when it comes to homefield and the playoffs, meaning that their road woes must be fixed or their chances of getting to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons will be severely in jeopardy.

Still, they’re a better team than what we saw yesterday. And not every team will play as flawlessly as the Titans did, especially with their inside knowledge of Brady and the Pats. Let’s dive in and vent and try to find some meaning and maybe just maybe, a glint of hope?

Pats Posits: Is this just fantasy?

November 5, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Last night I had the chance to sit in the Draft Kings luxury box for the game and well, this was a night that may never be topped in my Patriots fandom. I was able to bring my wife to her first game and let’s just say the bar that was set will be near impossible to top for her. Free food, free drinks, free programs and the best seats I’ve ever watched a game at Gillette from. I’m still processing the night and hence, a delay on the posits about the game.

Stack this one right up there with my best live game memories — 2006 AFCDG in San Diego, the 2009 opener, 2014 vs Broncos and now this one, 2018 vs Packers. Wow, a huge night on and off the field!

The game itself was another nice reminder that the Patriots are on an insane sports run. They’re stepped outside their box on defense. Gave Cordarrelle Patterson a bunch of carries and watched Josh Gordon put up his best night yet. I don’t want to call it Gordon’s breakout game yet because even at five catches for 130 yards and a touchdown I’m not quite sure we’ve seen the ceiling with him yet.

The Pats were undermanned, didn’t play all that great without Michel and Gronk, but they did what they always do. Execute the gameplan. Play good fundamental football across the board. Don’t beat themselves. That was enough to beat another historically great player, Aaron Rodgers.

Here are some quick posits as I remain in recovery mode from a perfect evening. Thank you again to Draft Kings!

Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Green Bay Packers

November 2, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Games like the Patriots vs. the Packers is why I write all these blogs. If you can’t just sit back and enjoy a great football matchup then I’m not sure what you’re doing. There’s not the underlying sense of stress that comes before a playoff game. I learned a long time ago if you only get excited for those, most seasons are going to be pretty depressing.

With no more Brady-Manning, we’re left with Brady vs. the mostly new guard, save a few select holdovers from the early days, the Roethlisbergers, the Flaccos and the Rivers’. Brady and NFC counterpart Aaron Rodgers have met but once, back in 2014 with Rodgers and the Packers beating the Patriots in what would be their last meaningful loss of the season. That just goes to show that even Sunday Night’s loser can take solace that losses can be the spark to a Super Bowl title.

As for the great Brady vs. Rodgers debate that has raged so fiercely this week, I can take appreciation in both quarterbacks. I do think it can largely be boiled down to the same Brady-Manning argument. Manning was bred to be a quarterback. Rodgers was bred to be a super athlete. Tom Brady didn’t have either of their natural gifts. Super Bowls are also largely team-dependant, but when you look at the overall body of their work, I’m a Brady guy through and through, and if that includes a little bit of Bill Belichick mixed in too I don’t really give a shit.

Brady has shown historic resilience when it all comes down to him. Those numerous times simply seal it for me, regardless how big a part Belichick played in the game-planning, team-building, etc. Brady has done it over and over with different guys everywhere.

Is Rodgers a better athlete? In a test tube, is he the guy you’d create? For sure. And I love watching him do what he does just like I enjoyed Peyton playing whenever it wasn’t against the Patriots.

But give me Tom Brady and his unstoppable quest from the doughy middle school kid to the GOAT every. single. time.

As for the teams on the field who will actually play against Brady and Rodgers and will decide the game? Here’s that gameplan!

Pats Posits: Pats Are Who I Posit They Are

October 30, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Pats pulled away late to close out the Bills as Tom Brady extended his dominance over Buffalo to a whopping 29-3. Brady has more wins over them than any other quarterback over any other team. The Bills Mafia has been left to just throw dildos on the field and accept their loss.

Without Sony Michel it was the grind that I thought it possibly could be in the gameplan:

For the past two seasons, it’s been clear that the Patriots are at their best when they’re balanced and establishing that balance in this game might be tougher than anyone realizes. If the run blocking isn’t on and Barner is unable to make people miss they’re going to become one-dimensional against a good passing defense and that could be cause for concern. Toss in any more strange giveaways leaving a short field for Anderson and there’s a chance this game is interesting, at least for a little bit.

So we got a heavy dose of Cordarrelle Patterson at running back (10 carries, 38 yards) and a game that was just 12-6 in the 4th quarter. The other stats that stand out due to the lack of a ground game was third down where the Pats were just 5-14 and in the red zone where they were 1-3. Just three of the 14 third downs were four yards or less. That speaks to not getting enough early down yardage.

What’s clear to me now about the 2018 Pats is that as long as they have Brady-White-Edelman-Gronk they’re going to give just about any team problems. They have less margin for error with turnovers, but they’ll move the ball. If they have Michel, or just an effective ground game, they’re at a different level of unstoppability.

As for the defense they met expectations against Derek Anderson and the inept Bills offense, holding them to just 6 points, a season low. They also forced two turnovers, returning an interception for their first defensive touchdown since 2015, a streak of 40 games. With no quick change situations, the defense showed that they’re definitely not as crappy as many were making them out to be. But again, it’s the Bills. We’ll see how they look against Aaron Rodgers, but we’ll take it.

More on it all in a halfway edition of the Posits…

High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

October 23, 2018 by Mike Dussault

If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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Pats Posits: Balanced Pats Show They Can Play with Anyone

October 15, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots outlasted the Chiefs on Sunday, delivering the shootout everyone thought they saw coming with a 43-40 win. Not to toot my own horn but I feel like my gameplan was especially accurate this week, right down to the final prediction. I’ve got a good bead on the team this year and while you never want to give up 40 points, I still believe this is one of the most solid Patriots teams in recent seasons.

This is a new NFL, and all that really matters is surviving against an offense as good as the Chiefs, just as the Chiefs must’ve felt the same way about the Patriots. Defenses can’t dominate anymore. It just comes down to getting red zone stops and making the plays that matter at the end. That’s what the Patriots did last night and they continue to show great mental toughness as all Belichick teams tend to do.

The offense continues to make strides behind Sony Michel‘s running and the development of Josh Gordon. The defense had three bad plays but otherwise did everything you can ask from a defense facing such a diverse and explosive offense. The special teams were great as far as field goals go and terrible at kickoffs.

So yeah, it wasn’t all rainbows but the corrections are extremely specific and fixable. This Patriots team executed the gameplan nearly perfectly for 90 percent of the game, but even just those few plays where they messed up were enough to take the contest down to the final possession. If this team stays intact for the next few months they’re going to be right there in the hunt at the end per usual.

More on everything from the first epic regular season win of 2018 in the Posits…

It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

October 11, 2018 by Mike Dussault

As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!