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Inside the numbers: Five stats that reveal more about 2013 Patriots – WEEI | Christopher Price

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Inside the numbers: Five stats that reveal more about 2013 Patriots – WEEI | Christopher Price

Great stuff from Chris Price. We’re starting to ramp up on the stats a bit…

Time of possession

• 2012: 31:15

• 2013: 32:15

Points by the offense

• 2012: 82 (27.3 per game)

• 2013: 59 (19.7 per game)

Points allowed

• 2012: 64 (21.3 per game)

• 2013: 34 (11.3 per game)

Third-down defense 

• 2012: 13-for-36 (36 percent)

• 2013: 15-for-45 (33 percent)

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Subjectively, it seems like Brady in the last couple years has started to struggle with stretches of inaccuracy, and that he’s taking more hits than in past seasons. Our stats seem to disagree. As you can see from the numbers above, Brady has been an efficient machine, even better than his standard numbers would indicate because the Patriots keep playing harder-than-average defensive schedules. The difference in his DVOA between plays with pressure and plays without is roughly equal to the league average. Between hits and sacks, he was knocked down on just 10.4 percent of pass plays, the fifth lowest rate in the league. And Brady’s completion rate would be even better if Patriots receivers didn’t drop 6.5 percent of passes (fifth highest in the league). At age 36, and with so much of his receiving corps turning over, you can expect a little bit of decline, but not much.

Football Outsiders 2013 Almanac

https://www.patspropaganda.com/subjectively-it-seems-like-brady-in-the-last/

Some Pats nuggets from Football Outsiders’ 2013 Almanac

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One of my favorite days of the offseason is when Football Outsiders drop their almanac. There is not a better advanced statistical preview out there, and it always sheds a final bit of light on the previous season.

Here are some nuggets I took away that I hadn’t known beforehand…

– First, I love it when stats back up what I’ve been writing about all offseason. I touched on first down being a priority to fix for the defense, and I think they addressed it with the additions of Tommy Kelly and Adrian Wilson. FBO’s metrics back up my argument. Here are the DVOAs on each down for the defense last season (the lower the better, especially into the negative numbers):

  • 1st Down: 17.7% (31st in NFL)
  • 2nd Down: -19.7% (3rd in NFL)
  • 3rd Down: 1.7% (19th in NFL)

– Is Belichick losing his aggressive streak? He was in the top 6 for aggressiveness index from 2004-2010, but was 11th in 2011 and 23rd last year. This is a measure for going for it on 4th down.

– Pats went from 74% in 2-TE sets in 2011 to just 49% last year.

– Pats led NFL with 59 defensive penalties. Yikes! Didn’t realize that one.

– Patriots rushed 4 or 5 guys 87.9% of the time. Just 4% of their blitzes were by a DB (31st in NFL). Only rushed 6+ 5.3% (23rd in NFL).

Highly recommend you pick up the almanac at FootballOutsiders.com if you’re into this kind of stuff.

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Patriots defensive DVOA against different types of receivers.  TEs and slot receivers killed them, with running backs just behind them. 

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-defensive-dvoa-against-different-types-of/