new england patriots

Forgive me for not posting much by way of original content the last week or so. It’s not because I don’t care, nor have I given up being an uber Pats blogger, I’ve just been buried in draft research and before I come out and write a post like this one from four years ago (ignore me fawning over Vernon Gholston please) I like to really have a good sense of the prospects before I start commenting on them.

This will be the fifth draft that I’ve blogged about exclusively from a Patriots perspective. I don’t do mock drafts because I don’t know enough about the other 31 teams needs, and ultimately the only thing I really care about when I see a mock draft is who they have the Pats taking. What I do instead is a Patriots-only big board that lists prospects that I think fit what the Pats do (here is last years), ranked in order of value to the Pats and the Pats only. We’ll also do one final Pats-only mock draft the week before the draft.

Last year we had a pretty good year as far as predicting which prospects had Pats potential. Here were our stats:

• Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees correct
• Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked
• Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)

I can say now that I highly doubt I can match hitting 2 of the Pats picks this year (Nate Solder & Ras-I Dowling), but that won’t stop me from trying!

Here’s some of the nuggets that I’ve learned over the years of studying the Pats drafts.

Never discount a player based on a combine number

I see a lot of my fellow amateur draft pundits discount a player based solely on random stats like their 40 time, or 3-cone time, or their arm length, or anything else that gets measured in Indy. Ultimately I don’t think any stats you’ll find, especially at the combine, are the key to unlocking the secret code to a Belichick draft. They are pieces of the puzzle, but smaller ones on the periphery. For every “a player needs to be X, Y and Z to be drafted by the Pats at that position” there’s an exception, and if there hasn’t been one yet it doesn’t mean it’s set in stone.

Versatility/Football intelligence are prime factors

There’s no place for a one trick pony on the draft board. Receivers/Defensive Backs with return ability get a big check. Linemen who can play multiple spots do as well. The Patriots run thinking-man schemes on both sides of the ball. If the player doesn’t have the FBI to keep up he’s going to bust, no matter how talented he is physically.

Remember where Belichick comes from

Bill Belichick is the son of the guy who literally wrote the book on football scouting. Ultimately game film and production during the season are the most important factors. Also remember the kind of players Belichick grew up around at Navy. Those type of guys are the originators of the now cliched “Patriot Way”.

This all feeds back into the infamous Scott Pioli quote, “we’re building a team, not collecting talent”. There’s no set formula for building a resilient team like the 2011 Pats were, but we all know the kind of positive, hard working guys that fit best. I won’t necessarily take a guy off the board if he’s made some bad decisions in the past, but it’s usually apparent when a guy is a consistent meatball.

Be on the look out for freaks

Belichick has such a sense of history with the game of football, I believe he truly enjoys finding players who are freakish in one way or another. Just having that one unique skill gives Belichick something to play with and use to his advantage, so when a player has unique size/movement skills (Marcus Cannon) or unique ways of reading/reacting (Brandon Spikes) I believe BB finds himself intrigued.

Know exactly how the prospect fits on the Patriots

This nugget originally comes from Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, where this factor is hit on multiple times as something Pioli/Belichick demand. If you like a prospect you must know exactly how they fit in on the current Patriots and how they stack up. This why things like “pass rusher” or “safety” are too general when talking about the Patriots needs. 

What kind of safety would work best next to Patrick Chung? Or James Ihedigbo? Would they compliment each other? Would playing to the prospect’s strengths adversely affect the other DBs? Or would his strengths fill a need seamlessly?

How would this OLB conversion project be worked into a rotation with Rob Ninkovich and Mark Anderson (hopefully)? And how does that guy stack up against Markell Carter? How will they contribute in year one and is that a necessary missing ingredient for the team?

This year I find this is a big issue for those who project corners that they like. Not enough time is spent telling how the corner would fit in on the 2012 Pats. I can say right now that I have McCourty and Dowling penciled in on the outside, with Arrington in the slot. So will this corner compete to take one of their jobs? And if so does that reduce the value of the pick or even hurt the development of a guy like Dowling who was a high pick himself and might just need playing time to blossom?

So, as you can see a lot of thought needs to go into these projections and that is why I’m building my knowledge base before I start saying who I like or don’t like. Of course I only focus on the draft for three months per year. There are plenty of year-rounders out there that know their stuff, but very few know the Patriots depth and needs as well as they really should to make projections.

Now I don’t claim to be an expert. I have no formal scouting experience. All I can claim is that I’ve been paying attention and I love the challenge of trying to crack the BB code on draft day. I welcome all feedback during the draft process, whether you agree or not with my rankings and thoughts. Too many bloggers get overly offended if you disagree with them, but in the end none of us really know anything about what the true Patriots big board inside Gillette Stadium looks like, so let’s all just get along and have fun with it.

Patriots-only Big Board will be unveiled in 10 days!