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CHFF: Brady Passed Manning?

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CHFF: Brady Passed Manning?

I’m posting this link not because I think it’s a definitive conclusion to the great Brady-Manning debate, but because of the stats laid out showing how Brady has faced the toughest slate of defenses in the NFL this year. Check this:

Seven of Brady’s 14 games this year were played against the six stingiest scoring defenses in football (Co-No. 1s Green Bay and Pittsburgh, No. 3 Chicago, No. 4 Baltimore, No. 5 N.Y. Jets (twice) and No. 6 San Diego).

Brady and the Patriots shredded almost all of them. They scored:

• 31 points against Green Bay Sunday night, the most any team has scored this year against the league’s stingiest defense (15.7 PPG)

• 39 against Pittsburgh, the most any team has ever scored in a regular-season game at Heinz Field

• 33 points in the first half alone against Chicago; the Bears have not surrendered more than 26 total points in any other game this year.

• 45 points in their second meeting against the Jets; the team has otherwise not given up more than 31 points in a game in two years under Rex Ryan.

To be honest I don’t really give a crap about the great Manning – Brady debate, as I’ve said many times before. So is this article moot if Manning and the Colts upset Brady at Foxboro this year?  Hoodie forbid, of course.

When both their careers are over and all the Super Bowl trophies, MVPs, and stats are tallied then we can have a legitimate debate about who was the better quarterback. Trying to do so now is like trying to pick a winner while the race is still going on.

Ranking the Patriots Potential Playoff Opponents

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Of the potential playoff contenders in the AFC, here’s there the order from team I think the Pats matchup best with all the way down to the team I least want to see.

  1. Jaguars – Brady might not have an incompletion if the Jaguars end up traveling to Foxboro. They’ve had a good season but there’s no way I can see David Garrard taking us down.
  2. Jets – We all saw what happened last time the Pats played the Jets. When you know a team as closely as BB knows the Jets it’s a lot easier to prepare for them. And we know the Pats would have no trouble getting uber motivated to crush the Jets again. I like this match-up and would feel really confident that Mark Sanchez would have another craptastic day.
  3. Chiefs – what an interesting match-up this would be! Cassel, Vrabel, Pioli, Crennel and Weis all return to New England to face BB and the Pats? The Chiefs are talented but away from home they’re a different team. Just for nostalgia factor alone I’m rooting for this game to happen. Also because I don’t think the Pats lose to the Chiefs in Foxboro.
  4. Steelers – It’s strange that every playoff game the Pats have played against the Steelers in the last decade have been in Pittsburgh. But I stick with the notion that the Patriots just know how to beat the Steelers when it counts most. It will just come down to execution.
  5. Colts – Peyton Manning always scares me. He makes defenses look stupid and Patriots fans everywhere were probably at least 90% sure we were headed to overtime before James Sanders got that interception. The Colts have holes but they know how to play the Patriots and would surely give us a run for the money. Ultimately it would come down to whose defense got that critical stop just like it did in November.
  6. Ravens – I’m not sure Joe Flacco has that “it” factor just yet. In the game against the Pats he went cold when they needed him most, and anyone who saw last night’s game against the Texans knows their defense is not the shutdown elite one it once was. But if the Ravens can peak they’ll be dangerous, and their three veteran wide receivers could be match up problems. Top to bottom probably the most talented team in the AFC, they just don’t have the qb… yet.
  7. Chargers – number one offense and number one defense. Yes the Patriots beat them once but that was without Vincent Jackson and it came down to the final play. The Pats would definitely have a big advantage in the cold outdoors of Foxboro. The crazy part is that if the playoffs started today they wouldn’t even be in. 

Ranking the Patriots Potential Playoff Opponents

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Of the potential playoff contenders in the AFC, here’s there the order from team I think the Pats matchup best with all the way down to the team I least want to see.

  1. Jaguars – Brady might not have an incompletion if the Jaguars end up traveling to Foxboro. They’ve had a good season but there’s no way I can see David Garrard taking us down.
  2. Jets – We all saw what happened last time the Pats played the Jets. When you know a team as closely as BB knows the Jets it’s a lot easier to prepare for them. And we know the Pats would have no trouble getting uber motivated to crush the Jets again. I like this match-up and would feel really confident that Mark Sanchez would have another craptastic day.
  3. Chiefs – what an interesting match-up this would be! Cassel, Vrabel, Pioli, Crennel and Weis all return to New England to face BB and the Pats? The Chiefs are talented but away from home they’re a different team. Just for nostalgia factor alone I’m rooting for this game to happen. Also because I don’t think the Pats lose to the Chiefs in Foxboro.
  4. Steelers – It’s strange that every playoff game the Pats have played against the Steelers in the last decade have been in Pittsburgh. But I stick with the notion that the Patriots just know how to beat the Steelers when it counts most. It will just come down to execution.
  5. Colts – Peyton Manning always scares me. He makes defenses look stupid and Patriots fans everywhere were probably at least 90% sure we were headed to overtime before James Sanders got that interception. The Colts have holes but they know how to play the Patriots and would surely give us a run for the money. Ultimately it would come down to whose defense got that critical stop just like it did in November.
  6. Ravens – I’m not sure Joe Flacco has that “it” factor just yet. In the game against the Pats he went cold when they needed him most, and anyone who saw last night’s game against the Texans knows their defense is not the shutdown elite one it once was. But if the Ravens can peak they’ll be dangerous, and their three veteran wide receivers could be match up problems. Top to bottom probably the most talented team in the AFC, they just don’t have the qb… yet.
  7. Chargers – number one offense and number one defense. Yes the Patriots beat them once but that was without Vincent Jackson and it came down to the final play. The Pats would definitely have a big advantage in the cold outdoors of Foxboro. The crazy part is that if the playoffs started today they wouldn’t even be in. 

Patriots Confused the Receivers and the Quarterback

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One of the elements that made the Patriots successful in intercepting Peyton Manning three times was a good job disguising their coverages. You can see Brian “Baldy” Baldinger break it down here. Try not to get distracted by Badly’s loose pinky that just sort of flops around while he’s making his points.

While we often hear about confusing a quarterback with disguised coverages you don’t hear much about confusing the receivers. In today’s NFL, and especially with a team like the Patriots, the receivers have to make pre-snap reads and adjust their routes accordingly.

On two of the three interceptions Manning threw, he saw one thing and his receiver saw another. This shows that you don’t necessarily need to fool Manning. He has young and fairly inexperienced receivers, except for Reggie Wayne. Confusing them and forcing them to make the wrong sight adjustment is probably a little easier than trying to do it to Peyton.

Seems like the Patriots knew that and exploited it. Those three interceptions ended up being the difference in the game.

Fooled You, Peyton!!

Mike D note: consider this my last post about the Colts game. I’ve tried to turn the page like the players and coaches have had to do but there’s just been so much interesting stuff to break down over the last three days. As an uber fan blogger I can afford that luxury. So that’s it. On to the Lions…

ProFootballFocus.com: Patriots – Colts ReFocused

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Here are some stats from the ProFootballFocus guys…

In stark contrast to the Colts, Brady didn’t have an O-lineman avoid a positive grade, with Dan Koppen (+3.9)having the strongest day, comfortably handling the Colts’ defensive tackles all day long.

Jermaine Cunningham (+3.0)had a fine game, with positive scores in both the run game and rushing the passer. Cunningham was able to generate three pressures on Manning over the course of the game, including the key pressure on his final throw that forced the interception.

Danny Woodhead ( +3.2 )is fast becoming a major weapon for the Patriots, a true Wes Welker in the backfield. With his experience as a slot receiver, Woodhead can be motioned out into the slot where he becomes a matchup problem, or keep him in the backfield where he is a dangerous runner behind a powerful O-line. His 36-yard touchdown run was a thing of beauty, and then Woodhead was the player flying downfield to make the tackle on the ensuing kickoff.

For the Patriots, Devin McCourty (+0.8)is clearly the best corner they have at the moment, and he made some plays in this game, even if he did allow five of nine passes into his coverage to be complete. … Rob Gronkowski ( +2.2) had a fine game, mostly as a run-blocker, while Aaron Hernandez (+0.3)was largely anonymous. … Brandon Spikes (+0.8) saw only eight snaps against a pass-heavy Colts team, and did his damage as a run stopper. … Punter Zoltan Mesko (+0.0)averaged 44 yards a punt, and had a 4.7 second hang-time high.

Football Outsiders: What Happened on Brady’s Last Three Pass Attempts?

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It was troubling to see that the Patriots offense went cold in the clutch again versus the Colts. All they needed was one more drive to ice the game, something they were able to do against the Vikings, but this time they failed on two possessions, only gaining one first down. This of course put the game in the hands of the defense.

Here’s what Football Outsiders saw when they broke down Brady’s final three pass attempts during those failed drives…

Brady had exactly three incompletions on his first 24 attempts before finishing his game out with four consecutive incompletions, including a would-be interception that Tyjuan Hagler was nice enough to show to the turf. Aaron Schatz and Bill Simmons wondered about what happened to Brady on those final attempts during the former’s appearance on the B.S. Report, so I decided to take a look at the final three.

On the first play, the Colts lined up with linebackers in both A-gaps, leaving six guys in the box against an empty backfield for the Patriots. The Colts lined up with man coverage across the field and no safeties deep. The blitzers came, which forced Logan Mankins to take one of the blitzing linebackers and Matt Light to grab the right defensive tackle. That left Dwight Freeney with a free rush at Brady, which forced an early throw to Brady’s hot read, Wes Welker, who hadn’t turned around yet.

Two plays later, Brady lined up with one linebacker in the A-gap and Danny Woodhead in the backfield. The Colts brought five and Brady wasn’t significantly pressured; he got off a clean throw, but it was thrown slightly behind Deion Branch, which allowed Cornelius Brown to knock the ball away. Branch suggested that there was pass interference committed on the play, but there was no such call.

Brady’s final throw came with 2:38 left; on third-and-7, the Colts lined up with three down linemen and two linebackers in a “mug” look, while the Patriots went with a Trips Bunch left alignment that had Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, and Aaron Hernandez in a group and Woodhead in the backfield. The Colts only brought four and Brady had a perfect pocket; he just missed his window to Welker. The throw itself seemed like something was off; even if Hagler hadn’t been there, it would have been well behind both Welker and the defender that was trailing him.

A Closer Look at Kyle Arrington the Pass Rusher

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In the video below you’ll see Kyle Arrington (#27) putting his hand down and rushing Peyton Manning from the defensive end position. It’s pretty rare to see a cornerback, much less a cornerback on the small side, engaging with linemen in the trenches.

In this play Arrington begins to lineup as if he is going to be covering the slot receiver, but given that he had blitzed on previous plays, Manning points him out as a rusher. Once called out Arrington concedes his intentions and puts his hand down to help him get a quicker burst. 

In the previous pass rushes he made he tried to beat the tackle wide, dipping his shoulder and trying to get underneath the block, but this time he fakes outside and cuts inside. The combination of this good move and Tully Banta-Cain’s impressive Freney-esque spin move on the other side forced Manning out of the pocket and to make a poor throw on the move.

This was one of the few third downs that the Pats were able to get off the field. This was an interesting wrinkle that Bill Belichick threw at Peyton Manning this time around, and this is one crucial play where it helped the Patriots get off the field.