indianapolis colts

Rise and shine, it’s the day we say goodbye to 4th and 2 and punish the Colts for letting the Jets into the playoffs.

Let’s start the day off with the two greatest let’s make some glue videos out there, a little M-M-M-ManningFace and The Pats Are Comin’!

There’s nothing more interesting to me than how Bill Belichick tries to shut down Peyton Manning. Obviously early on in the rivalry Peyton looked as confused as the Steelers defense did last weekend, but lately Manning has been just about unstoppable when it counted most.

The hard part is that in the first half the Pats D actually looked pretty good. And they even held the Colts to just 5-12 (41%) on 3rd downs for the game. The problem is that the Colts no huddle went through the Pats D just like the Steelers’ no huddle did in the 4th quarter last week, and barely saw any third downs.

Bill Belichick mentioned earlier this week that with the Colts no huddle you have to be ready to roll with whatever personnel you put out there for the first down of the series. With that in mind here’s what the Pats D did in 2009 that almost worked.

They were almost entirely in a nickel package the entire game that looked like this to start:

Burgess – Wilfork – Wright – Banta-Cain were the down lineman.

Mayo and Guyton were the linebackers, with Guyton primarily covering the running back.

Leigh Bodden was matched up on Pierre Garcon (or Peter Garkon as my dad calls him). Jonathan Wilhite was matched up on Reggie Wayne. You probably remember seeing Wilhite helplessly trailing Wayne on most of his ten receptions. Unlike most Pats defensive plans they kept these matchups no matter where they lined up.

When Austin Collie came in Darius Butler had him, when Collie wasn’t in Butler came out for Patrick Chung. Oh yes, remember the days of Patrick Chung part time player. Those days are gone.

Brandon McGowan covered Dallas Clark a lot and did a decent job, holding him to just four catches. The Pats almost always made sure to jam Clark at the line and deny him a free release. Free releases equal completions with Manning and Clark. Brandon Meriweather played deep safety on almost every snap.

While there were substitutions for injuries and to keep guys fresh this was pretty much the defense they rode with.

So now in 2010, with new personnel for the Pats, how might they match up if they keep a similar game plan? Well here’s what I would do, with some slight tweaks based on what the Pats do well.

Similarly we’d see these down lineman:

Cunningham – Wright – Wilfork – Banta-Cain

I think Cunningham is an upgrade over Burgess, the rest remain the same as last year so that experience should serve them well. Sub runs were an issue for the Pats earlier in the year, this is one game that problem cannot pop up again, especially given crappy Colts running attack.

Expect to see Gerard Warren as the first interior lineman in the game next, with perhaps Brandon Deaderick following him. I think we’ll see less of Ron Brace and Kyle Love, if they even dress. 

Rob Ninkovich can spell Cunningham and Banta-Cain as needed. This game plan also shows us a little bit of why Shawn Crable wasn’t needed. He would’ve been a liability against the run.

Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton both return and with Mayo healthy and Guyton coming off a great game I expect they should be ready. Don’t expect to see much of Brandon Spikes.

Reggie Wayne had a field day on Jonathan Wilhite in 2009 and it remains to be seen if the Pats will pick matchups over sides again in 2010. If they do I expect to see Kyle Arrington on Wayne. Arrington is more physical than Wilhite and should have plenty of help from a safety.

That leaves Peter Garkon for Devin McCourty, and I think that’s a matchup that favors the Patriots.

Now we have a concussed Austin Collie and Dallas Clark replacement Jacob Tamme to deal with. What seems to make most sense is to have Patrick Chung on Tamme. Chung is quicker and better in coverage than McGowan was, and it also helps that Tamme isn’t as good as Clark was.

When Collie comes on (assuming he plays) we can put Wilhite (or Darius Butler if Wilhite’s absence from practice Friday is serious) on him and pull Gary Guyton.

Expect Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders to be playing the two deep safeties role for most of the game. Special attention must be paid to Wayne so there should definitely always be over the top help on him.

So the packages look like this:

Cunningham – Wright – Wilfork – Banta-Cain

Mayo – Guyton

McCourty – Chung – Arrington

Sanders – Meriweather

Sub Wilhite for Guyton or Wilfork depending on down and distance when they go to a multi-WR set. Segio Brown could also be worked in for another wrinkle, especially in long 3rd down situations.

It’s safe to assume the Colts are probably expecting this game plan or something similar, so any deviation will not only be a surprise to me, but hopefully to them as well.