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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 19 DVOA Ratings

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 19 DVOA Ratings

The other item that will stand out is that the Patriots now rank No. 1 in weighted offensive DVOA, despite losing Rob Gronkowski in Week 14. The Patriots have had a consistently good but not dominating offense now for two months, though. The Pats had a season-high 74.8% offensive DVOA against Pittsburgh in Week 9, took Week 10 off, and then put up a fabulous 57.5% offensive DVOA against Carolina in Week 11. The haven’t matched those two games, but they have been between 10% and 40% on offense in all seven games since. Denver, after adjusting for opponent, has actually been below that three times since midseason: Week 12 against the Patriots (-3.2%), Week 15 against the Chargers (5.2%), and then this week against the Chargers (6.2%), although obviously part of that are huge opponent adjustments based on how bad San Diego was on defense in the first three months of the season.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 15 DVOA Ratings

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 15 DVOA Ratings

Here are the latest DVOA rankings as the Patriots defense continues their decline to an average-at-best squad. But hey, the offense still looks pretty good. 

Perhaps the most-telling offensive stat though for this Patriots team is their VARIANCE, which measures how consistent they are from drive to drive. They’re 27th.

The defense is more consistent, they’re 13th in Variance. So consistently slightly-below-average.

Overall: 6th

Offense: 5th

  • Pass 8th
  • Run 9th

Defense: 21st

  • Pass 16th
  • Run 21st
  • vs #1 WR: 13th
  • vs. #2 WR: 30th
  • vs. Other WR: 21st
  • vs. TE: 16th
  • vs. RB: 17th

Special Teams: 3rd

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 13 DVOA Ratings

Here’s the Week 13 DVOA ratings and they point out what we all know:

You can see how the Patriots have completely turned things around to become the same team they’ve been the last few years. The offense is awesome again, and the defense, now riddled with injuries, is once again below average. The special teams, as always, are excellent. 

From Weeks 1-8:

  • Offense 18th
  • Defense 11th
  • Special Teams: 2nd

From Weeks 9-13

  • Offense: 2nd
  • Defense: 21st
  • Special Teams: 9th

Still, I think if you looked specifically at the defensive breakdown, it wouldn’t be the same old “great against the run, can’t stop any legit passing attack” we’ve seen the last three seasons. Now it’s the opposite, and we’ll see if that makes any difference in the post season.

The overall season DVOA ratings:

Overall: 5th

Offense: 6th

  • Pass: 8th
  • Run: 9th

Defense: 16th

  • vs. Run: 31st
  • vs. Pass: 9th
  • vs. #1 WR: 7th
  • vs. #2 WR: 30th
  • vs. Other WR: 17th
  • vs. TE: 10th
  • vs. RB: 10th

Special Teams: 4th

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Let’s kick of everybody’s favorite half-day Wednesday of the year with the updated DVOA rankings. 

Overall: 5th

Offense: 9th

  • Run 9th
  • Pass 12th

Defense: 13th

  • vs. Run 28th
  • vs. Pass 8th
  • vs #1 WR: 4th
  • vs. #2 WR: 32nd
  • vs. other WR: 14th
  • vs. TE: 9th
  • vs. RB: 9th

Special Teams: 2nd

It’s not hard to see that this is the best Patriots team we’ve seen on DVOA in a while. Or better yet, it’s the most complete team. Yes they have problems against the run, that’s kind of to be expected without Wilfork and Kelly in there.

And yes they seem to have problems with #2 wide receivers, although that is a bit subjective.

Otherwise they are in the top half, and very likely in the top 10, in every other ranking. And given how the NFL is, I’ll take those rankings every season, especially over the recent years of struggles against the pass while the run defense was stellar.

Simply put, these rankings matchup with the kind of team you need to win the Super Bowl.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: DVOA and PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: DVOA and PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

It was a short wait this week for the latest DVOA ratings to come out and there are some numbers that should make Pats fans feel a little better.

First, the Pats still have a 93.9% chance of winning the division, though their odds for each respective seed have fallen back a bit: 1st (5.3%), 2nd (30.5%), 3rd (32.2%), 4th (25.8%), 5th (0.1%), and 6th (3.6%).

If the Pats don’t beat Denver this weekend, their chances at a bye will fall even further.

As for the overall rankings we have:

Overall: 6th

Offense: 11th

  • Pass 14th
  • Rush 7th

Defense: 14th

  • vs. Pass: 13th
  • vs. Run: 19th
  • vs. #1 WR: 4th
  • vs. #2 WR: 32nd
  • vs. Other WR: 20th
  • vs. TE: 8th
  • vs. RB: 17th

Special Teams: 3rd

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: 2013 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: 2013 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Even during the bye week the other scores will affect the Patriots rankings. Here are the latest as we head into what might be the defining two games of the season. 

Overall: 7th

Offense: 14th

  • Pass: 15th
  • Rushing:  10th

Defense: 10th

  • vs. Pass: 8th
  • vs. Rush: 22nd
  • vs. #1 WR: 1st
  • vs. #2 WR: 32nd
  • vs. Other WR: 20th
  • vs. TE: 8th
  • vs. RB: 19th

Special Teams: 5th