defense

Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

November 21, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

Patriots Film Review: Defense Strangles out Pack

November 8, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Upon further review, the defense’s performance against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense was a classic kind of win. Did they give up a few long scoring drives? Yup, three to be exact. But they kept the ground game under control, didn’t allow any big scoring plays and withstood the storm until the second half when they grabbed a turnover, forced a timely three-and-out and set the stage for the Patriots’ offense to pull away.

This is always how it seems to go when the Pats face classic QBs like Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger to name a few.

Despite the Jaguars and Lions hiccups, this has been a defense reborn and they getting better every week. It’s impressive and exciting to watch. Especially the Trey Flowers part of it.

No doubt there are still improvements to be made but this is a solid defense no matter how you slice it. Here’s how the Pats D strangled out the Pack.

Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

October 24, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

October 23, 2018 by Mike Dussault

If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

October 11, 2018 by Mike Dussault

As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

Patriots Off-Season Football Review

July 24, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The 2018 offseason was workmanlike for the Patriots, sticking the same philosophy they’ve mostly gone with over the last 18 seasons. There wasn’t a seismic free agent pickup like Randy Moss or Darrelle Revis,, nor did they roll the dice on a former star veteran in search of a title like Chad Johnson, Albert Haynesworth, Fred Taylor and others.

They watched some steady and beloved players walk to lucrative contracts and traded their way out of having to watch the same thing happen next offseason with Brandin Cooks.

The subtractions, including Nate Solder, Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler and Danny Amendola stung on multiple levels and will leave the 2018 Patriots with significant questions about who will replace them, but there is good overall depth that should make for good competition for those spots. There is a lot of potential in this 2018 Patriots roster that has not been tapped.

The additions and draft picks were surgically targeted at places of weakness but now those new players must take advantage of the opportunity and that all starts Thursday. There are still questionable areas, but with the best coaching in the league and high standards there will certainly be some new faces that excite us.

For those of you who checked out during the offseason, or just want a clean and easy football-only review of the comings and goings, here’s a quick run-thru of the Patriots’ offseason.

Patriots Over Investment in Secondary Didn’t Pay Off

February 21, 2018 by Mike Dussault

I started blogging about the Patriots around the time that the old dynasty defense was dying. The 2007 defense squeezed the last bit of life out of Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and other supporting members who helped define the Pats teams of the 2000s. Then the retirements and departures began and I realized that if Tom Brady was to ever get four or more Super Bowls, Bill Belichick would have to build him a new defense, mostly from scratch.

It was fascinating to see them emerge from the depths of the 2010 defense that needed turnovers to survive, to the 2014 and 2016 Super Bowl-winning squads that made huge key plays under the most pressing circumstances. But there’s no denying that 2017 was a step backwards. Yes, injury attrition had a lot to do with that, but it was just as much a string of missed draft picks and decisions to cut ties with the picks they did hit on.

I really don’t want to kick a dead horse, but I can’t help but need to vent about how this all unfolded over the past few seasons. How did the Patriots go from having the most promising young defense in the league in 2014 to what’s looking like another rebuild in less than three seasons? But is this even a rebuild this time around? Let’s dive in.