Nice work from Frenz as always…
The Patriots blitzed a decent amount in the first half — bringing at least one extra pass rusher seven times on 19 dropbacks. The result, though, was a 17-3 deficit and zero sacks as Ryan Tannehill got into a rhythm with short passes and the Dolphins ran the ball 22 times for 103 yards. So Belichick went blitz crazy in the second half. He called for extra pressure on 22 of 31 dropbacks, and the result was six sacks, no points, 126 total yards and one frustrated Tannehill in the second half. For the game, the Patriots blitzed on 29 of 50 dropbacks (58 percent).
https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-patriots-blitzed-a-decent-amount-in-the-first/
The play didn’t count due to a holding call, but Brady threw an absolute dart on a 30-yard pass to Gronkowski in the end zone during the third quarter with Miami safety Chris Clemons coverage. It was perhaps the best pass he’s thrown all season.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-play-didnt-count-due-to-a-holding-call-but/
It’s hard to determine how to divy up the blame pie for Tom Brady’s massive decline this year. Is his lack of accuracy related to the fact that he doesn’t trust his new receivers? Is it related to age? An injury to his hand? How much do we blame the new receivers and how much do we blame Brady himself? What we do know is that Brady’s year-to-year decline is one of the biggest for any quarterback in history.
For now, let’s just look at quarterbacks since 1989 using DVOA ratings. After Week 8, Brady’s DVOA rating stands at -16.6%. That’s actually lower than replacement level, which is astonishing for a player who has led the league in passing DVOA three times and passing DYAR four times. As of right now, Brady’s drop of over 50 percentage points in DVOA trails only Brett Favre’s final season in Minnesota as the biggest year-to-year drop in DVOA for a quarterback with at least 300 passes in two straight seasons.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 8 DVOA Ratings
Sorry if this made you throw up in your mouth a little. Here’s the thing, I’m still not really that worried about Brady. Look at what he’s had to work with in the first half. His protection has been spotty at bad times. His best receiving back played one game (and dominated). He essentially had NO tight end. The best free agent has missed five games.
Essentially Brady has had to get by without much help from anyone. But things have already started to change. Gronk and Amendola are back and getting up to speed. The protection will be better as it always is. Vereen should be back after the bye.
Let’s just say it wouldn’t be crazy to see a huge turnaround in Brady’s stats this year and a lot of these “Has Brady Lost It” articles will look pretty silly.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/its-hard-to-determine-how-to-divy-up-the-blame/
What is Belichick’s influence on the offense given how he is a situational coach and a defensive guy and then brady and mcdaniels are already taking care of the offense
I think it’s pretty clear that BB gives a little more attention to the defense and that he trusts TB and JM with the offense. That said, he oversees it all and all the major game-planning certainly has BB’s blessing and handprints all over it.
I usually refrain from specifically criticizing offensive coordinators. There’s just too much that we as fans don’t know. But at the same time I think there needs to be some serious evaluation of some of the Pats’ method of attack this season.
I think they’re getting caught thinking they’re still the 2010-2012 Pats and trying stuff like the quick snap runs, which, haven’t been too successful.
Tweeted this late last night: Brady is 28 of 44 (64 pct) for 292 yards out of no huddle. Running backs are averaging 2.92 yards per carry.
— Nick Underhill (@Nick_Underhill) October 29, 2013
I think the Pats are still looking for their identity on both sides of the ball. What can they hang their hat on? What are their best personnel packages? Now that they’re getting healthy, it’s time to figure it out.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 8 DVOA Ratings
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Week 8 DVOA Ratings
Lots of Pats stuff in here, we’ll get into the ratings in another post. Interesting breakdown of Tom Brady’s down season as well.
The idea of the Patriots as the most consistent team in the league seems ridiculous, because they seem so inconsistent from drive to drive. Nonetheless, the Patriots may not be the enigma that everyone thinks they are. The Patriots are not suddenly a bad team. They seem to be a slightly above-average team that plays most games slightly above-average. Maybe the reason the Patriots are so hard for people to judge is that their performance this year is so different from what we’ve come to expect from the Patriots in recent years. Their defense ranks sixth in DVOA and has been the most consistent in the league (variance of only 2.0%) despite all the injuries in recent weeks. The offense, on the other hand is just 20th in offensive DVOA (12th in variance). Even stranger, the offense is being carried in part by the running game. The Patriots rank 12th in rushing DVOA but 24th in passing DVOA.
Do you think it is possible to have an aggressive defense while still being a situational defense
Not really. There are times to be aggressive like we saw this weekend and that was really because the situation (wind, shitty o-line) called for it. But I don’t think you can have an all-the-time attacking defense and still be situational because there are more times when just playing sound coverage can get the job done.
It relates back to the talent level. Ideally any football team wants to generate pressure with their front four, but you need talent to do that. When you don’t have talent you have to get creative to generate pressure.
Then it just comes down to simple math. The more guys you send to attack, the more holes you open up in your defense. If your blitz doesn’t get to the quarterback in time, you’re going to give up a big play.
So Belichick is really more of a conservative coach. Content to give up first downs in the middle of the field as long as they’re only at a 4-6 yard clip. By forcing continued execution it often leads to turnovers.
The problems occur when the opposing offense doesn’t turn the ball over. Then the Pats lose.
But here’s the thing I could never resolve from all this. You have the Patriots bend-don’t-break, that would give up a lot of yards and usually stiffen in the red zone. On the flip side of the coin you had the 2010-2012 Patriots’ offense, that would pick up yards at a 4-6 yard clip consistently, but rarely attacked downfield.
So their defense’s job is to prevent explosive plays, but their offense lacked the ability to make explosive plays. Just an interesting dichotomy that makes me think Brady must’ve just shredded the Pats defense in practice from 2010-2012. Now it’s probably the other way around.