PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

It’s Finally Time for Some Pats Stats

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As a rule, I try to hold off jumping into any kind of season stats as long as I possibly can. It’s too easy to overreact to a small sample size. Sometimes those early season blips become trends, both good and bad. Other times they don’t. So you just sit back for September and then in October check in to see if the numbers back up what you think you’re seeing.

Now, with a five-game sample size, it’s finally time to dip my toe into the waters of statistics regarding the 2018 Patriots. Would the results back up what I think about this offense and defense? How do the weaknesses and strengths stack up historically? It’s always fun when it comes down to finally start tallying.

There are a collection of stats that I rely on — POINTS, TURNOVERS, THIRD DOWN and RED ZONE. I also have my own Bend Don’t Break index that measures yardage- and plays-per-drive against points- and turnovers-per-drive. Altogether I feel like these stats give me the best sense of how good a team is and I’ve got them all going back to 2001, so they also provide a historical perspective.

Let’s dive in!

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Can the Pats Defense Stop KC?

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If there’s one thing that was clear from the 2017 Patriots’ bookend losses to start and end the season, it’s that they lacked athleticism at the second level to counter the explosion of versatile offensive attacks. Plays like the read option, a nightmare for a slow linebacking corps, got the Patriots off balance early and opened up the playbook to a variety of other things like the Philly Special.

This offseason my biggest goal for the team was to get more athletic at linebacker. It looked unaddressed until Ja’whaun Bentley burst onto the scene, bringing some hope that the Pats finally had a second-level player who could make plays sideline-to-sideline. But alas, Bentley was lost for the season with a torn biceps, Dont’a Hightower has seemingly lost a step, and the Pats are dead in the crosshairs of an offense that has opened the season on fire, with the same defensive weaknesses they had last year.

The Chiefs have torched the Pats before, in 2014 and the 2017 opener, but with Patrick Mahomes under center they are playing at an even better level than either of those Alex Smith-led squads. They have speed, they have quickness, they have power and they have a quarterback that can not only throw the ball to any spot on the field, but one who excels making plays outside the pocket on the move.

The Chiefs pose a myriad of problems for every defense in the league and on paper, it would appear the Pats are really lacking what they need most to slow them down. But the Pats do have the pieces in front and on the back end to win this game, even if they do give up their share of plays. Spoiler alert — they will.

Here’s a pre-gameplan feel for what the Pats need to focus on to beat Kansas City.

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Film Review: Patriots vs Colts

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The Patriots rolled to a second impressive win in a row, beating the Colts with their second 38 burger in a row. With Julian Edelman back, Josh Gordon immediately working his way in and Sony Michel‘s continued improvement, the chatter about a lack of weapons has quieted down. Which could only mean one thing, it’s time to complain again about the defense.

After watching the All-22 I continue to really like what I’m seeing from the Patriots defense and despite some holes in the win over the Colts, they are playing as simple and fast as I can remember them. The tackling is locked down. The edge is being set. The extra yardage and busted coverages are slowly disappearing. It all looks impressive and was on good display for most of Thursday night.

The Patriots should have earned a ton of confidence after the last two wins have wiped out the bad taste of back-to-back road losses. Still, there will always be questions about the defense because this league is designed for offenses to succeed. The question is whether or not the defense makes the key plays down the stretch and that will most likely be the case against the Chiefs this weekend.

Here’s a bunch on what else stood out from the film review.

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Pats Posits: Full Speed Ahead

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The Patriots put together another impressive performance, winning their third game of the season with a 38-24 trouncing of the Colts on Thursday night. Tom Brady threw his 500th touchdown pass, a 2007 Moss-esque connection with Josh Gordon that saw the receiver outleap three nearby defenders. Meanwhile Julian Edelman returned to his first game action since Super Bowl 51 and the defense had three takeaways, leaving everyone to rest assured that the Patriots are still very much the Patriots.

Sony Michel took some monster strides as well, rushing for 98 yards and a touchdown that featured an impressive stiff arm. James White caught a team-leading 10 balls as everything seemed to finally be coming into focus for the Pats offense. It wasn’t all perfect, games on Thursday nights never are, but there was enough carryover from the bounce back Dolphins win to feel like the 3-2 Pats are starting to establish a true identity.

More on it all in a bleary-eyed Posits as I get ready to head out to shoot episode two of Foxboro & Friends.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 vs Colts

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This post is sponsored by Goldberg and Wiegand.

Just like that there’s another game for the Pats, a Thursday night meeting with the Colts who we haven’t seen since Week 6 of 2015. The Patriots-Colts rivlary certainly needed a little cool down period after a decade of Brady-Manning then Deflategate. Two seasons have passed and it’s a good time to renew those old bad feelings.

The Patriots once again staved off their annual demise in September and bounced back with a dominant win over the Dolphins that reassured everyone that the New England Football Machine roars onward. Teams truly have to prove it every season and that’s why the Patriots continue to be the class of the NFL.  Some teams may play perfect and catch them early in the season and get lucky, but like the house in Vegas, it’s just a matter of time before the Patriots start winning again.

The return of Julian Edelman and the hopefully-continued development of Josh Gordon are what we’re all watching fro tonight. Those two players could put the Patriots back in the conversation about the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the defense has two lights out games, and two stinkers. On a short week, things won’t be any easier on them, at least they’re at home.

What do the Pats need to do to get the win before an extended off-week at 3-2? Here’s the gameplan.

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Film Review: It All Goes Right for Pats D vs. Phins

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I am pretty sure this was my favorite defensive football film watch of all-time. Simply put it was the second time in four weeks that the Patriots defense executed across the board. The pressure was consistent even with four, they were tough on first down, they got takeaways. I’m not sure what more you can ask from a defense and that’s almost a little scary.

It really puts a spotlight on how inexcusable the two performances on the road were, but those are done and the Pats need to figure out how to live up to the performances against Houston and Miami every week. Here’s a bunch of rapid-fire thoughts as I digest the brief and spectacular film review.

— The defense was just totally in sync as it was vs the Texans. It’s beautiful to watch as the coverage perfectly matches the receivers and the pocket breaks apart forcing an uncomfortable throw. Again and again, we’re reminded that when defenses simply get off blocks and make tackles they can look monumentally better. That was the case in this one.

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