PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Will the Black Unicorn mean the return of the 1,000 yard Rusher?

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That’s idiotic, you say, the Patriots haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher in 4 years, that’s not how their offense functions. BB and McDaniels never feed the rock to an RB enough for that to happen and the short passing game is essentially the running game. The additions they made in their offense (Hogan, Bennett, Washington, Lewis back from ACL) are in the passing game not rushing. And for God’s sakes, the offensive line was atrocious last year, they can’t put on Sunblock, let alone run block (you’re right that was a lazy joke). And now Jimmy G is starting, they’ll load up the box. You’re a dickhead, Conway.

All of those things can be true and there will still be a 1,000-yard rusher on the team.

A bit of history: the last time the Patriots had a 1,000-yard rusher was 2012 with current Detroit Lion and failed Jets experiment, Steven Ridley. Before that, the last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2010 with out-of-the-league Benjarvus Green Ellis. How did those two deadbeats gain 1,000 yards. I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “Baron Fernandez and Slob Bonks-out-see”.

That’s right it’s the return of the 2-tight end sets with 2 elite tight ends!

At least on paper, the “Bennett and Gronk” 2 TE set has a fair chance of being better than “Hernandez and Gronk“ (i.e. the most-efficient offense in NFL history according to DVOA). But even if it doesn’t match those levels, it all but guarantees that the Pats running attack will be elite. With Gronk and the Black Unicorn (best nickname in the NFL), the Pats will have dynamic playmakers that also happen to be complete and total football players. They can run block, pass block and run precise routes. BB favorites. Also this creates the perfect set of training wheels for Garropolo.

The reason why this is so important is Garropolo now has options at the line of scrimmage, lots and lots of options. For obvious reasons, two-TE sets with two good-to-great tight ends create more offensive mismatches than any other formation. You can leave both in and run with seven blockers or you can send them both out and have essentially a 4/5 WR set, or you can leave one in to block, send one out on a seam route. This forces a huge decision for defenses pre-snap because they have to declare how they’re going to defend the match-up with their on-field personnel 15 or so seconds before the play begins or risk an incredible mismatch.

Tom Brady eats this type of fear like dripping kale Froyo, Jimmy will eat them like deep dish pizza (he’s from Illinois). And because NFL coaches are a bunch of risk-averse checkers players, they will show their hand and likely bring in safety help.

An extra safety sprints on the field, then another. Very few safeties in the league can handle Gronk or Bennett one-on-one in run blocking. Or if a bolder coach, like Rex decides to leave an extra linebacker on the field to try to maintain some strength against the run, Brady and Garropolo have options: run the ball away from the linebacker, play action to freeze him, or attack him with one of the 20 quick release receivers currently on the roster. And if defenses actually show respect for the run and leave two extra linebackers on the field, Brady and even Garropolo will eat and eat well. Hell, even, Tim Tebow would eat well if he could hit Buzzards Bay.

The last concern is the O-line. 2012 had Solder and Vollmer at the Tackle spots (sound familiar?), Mankins at LG was an upgrade over whoever takes over, but Wendell and Connolly at C and RG are both downgrades to Stork or Andrews and the crew at RG. Scar’s back and the team will run block well. But the truth is that defenses will be so worried about getting burned that running lanes should amply open up. Scar will be declared a genius and he is, but not because of how well the Pats run this season, that will all be because of Bennett’s addition.

So all of this boils down to the question: who gets those touches. Who better to follow in the footsteps of Green Ellis and Ridley than LeGarrette Blount? In fact, that’s the kind of runner he is, he will have a hole at the line of scrimmage and we all know he has straight line speed that can take it 50 yards. Talk about hot takes: LaGarrette Blount on the docket for a cool g.

A few Residual notes: a.) 25.7% of Green Ellis’ 3,914 career yards came during the ’10 campaign! #FeelTheBenj!

b.) Steven Ridley has rushed for 2,907 yards in his career. He gained 1263 in 2012. 43% of his career happened that year.

c.) If Isaiah Crowell becomes available, and by all accounts he will, the Pats should pounce. He’s a perfect compliment to their RBs and would allow them to move on from Blount. He’d likely have 1,500 All purpose as a competent receiver as well.

1st POST MEA CULPA: I’d like to apologize to my family. I had a goal to quit the NFL and I fell off the wagon, barely made it through training camp last year, Goddammit I was right back in the mix to hear Mike Tomlin bitch about communications systems. Helped that TB beat Goodell in court. I love football and hate the NFL. Anyway, I’m back I understand that makes me some kind of hypocrite, but I’m good with it, I hope you are too. Gonna be a great season! And now we get to evaluate Jimmy.

Just more fuel to Brady’s fire.

Deflategate Day 535: En Banc Hearing Denied

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Deflategate En BancIt’s looking more likely that ever that Tom Brady will be sitting the first four games of the 2016 season. The second circuit court denied Brady and the NFLPA’s appeal for an En Banc hearing on Deflategate, leaving limited options for the defamed quarterback. Brady could try to take it to the Supreme Court, but he’s just about out of options.

For Pats fans, there are so many emotions. Everyone is sick of Deflategate. Even those of us who are apoplectic at the way the NFL treated their star player are ready to be done with it. And by now it’s easy to find the silver linings.

Jimmy Garoppolo is now poised to play at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston and vs. Buffalo. Three home games, but four defenses that are daunting. In the long term, it’s great for the Patriots to get a look at Garoppolo now, in his third year. Next offseason will be the last time the Pats could move Garoppolo and get something for him. So this will be an audition as much as anything.

And really, even with Brady, the Pats usually sputter a bit out of the gate. Even a 1-3 record wouldn’t be insurmountable, while 3-1 or 2-2 are usually par for the course anyway. So to the 31 teams who are reacting like the Bills, nah-nah-nah-poo-poo the Patriots are still going to be fine, not only this season, but for future seasons because they’ll truly know what they have in their backup QB.

Plus Brady gets a lighter training camp and shortened season which can only benefit the soon-to-be 39 year-old. He’ll have four weeks to stew and will be ready to unleash hell on the Cleveland Browns on October 9th, before making his first home appearance against the Bengals. I’m most curious how Brady studies the offense in those first four games, what he sees and how he can help implement ways to use new players like Martellus Bennett.

But it still sucks. The NFL played dirty from the start with this whole affair. From refusing to correct false information in the media, to planting lies in the media to support their version, to moving the goal posts after the appeal, the NFL was in it to win it the entire time. Forget the actual truth and evidence. They saw their chance to finally get those Patriots, and pulled out all the stops to make sure they prevailed.

Maybe Brady tries to go to the Supreme Court. He certainly has the legal team in place for it. Maybe, like many would love, he opens a defamation lawsuit against the NFL (that’s where things would get uber interesting). Or maybe this really is the end of a crazy charade that lasted over a year-and-a-half all over footballs that were .4% below what the Ideal Gas Law predicted they would be.

Malcolm Butler Named 8th Best CB on Ringer NFL Show

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I think that Malcolm Butler is sort of a laboratory to prove how much confidence has to do with the Cornerback position. I remember speaking to him the Thursday before the Super Bowl…and he lacked confidence, he was not brash or bold or anything. I talked to him before the season last year, 8 months after he made one of the biggest plays ever, and there was just a different air about him. That showed on the field and now I think he’s a top ten player. I just don’t think you can put any sort of quantitative value on confidence.

 

-Kevin Clark: The Ringer NFL Show
July 8, 2016

I found the nugget about Butler’s growth to be interesting. I love the energy and confidence Butler plays with and I think it’s been one of his best allies on the field. Butler said himself after the Super Bowl he knew he was gonna make a play. A little swagger seemed to be his secret weapon.

A Look Back at the Patriots Silent Snap

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When we last left our beloved Patriots, this is what we were left to chew on for 7 months:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFFZws3Apbo

Some of the plays made here can be attributed to this fact: Von Miller was the second overall pick in the draft in 2011. Many players live up to the expectations of being a high draft pick. Many other players do not. Some, like Von Miller, end up good enough that in hindsight that even using #1 overall pick seems like a steal. The interception and the open field tackles that Miller made throughout the game speak for themselves.

His major effect, though, came through rushing the passer. He appeared to be as dialed in as any single top-tier pass rusher the Patriots have ever faced in a big game…and there have been many. Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, Justin Tuck/Jason Pierre-Paul/Michael Strahan, Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril/Bruce Irvin, Terrell Suggs, JJ Watt, Jason Taylor…some had great games, some were completely neutralized, and again…there was Von Miller.

In the following days, several writers and radio hosts attempted figure out what went wrong (many of them simply blaming the entire game on Marcus Cannon), with the most brief but most likely accurate assessment coming from a Matt Light interview on WAAF:

“[Denver] is a horrible place to go play, especially in that circumstance,” he said. “You’ve got the best defense in the league. You’re in their place. And you don’t practice a snap count? It blows my mind that, really, the game was lost because of a snap count. I don’t think that they practiced their snap count at all, really, to any degree. We went into a game being able to snap silent count five different ways. Not two. Five. And in that game, I watched them on the snap count and I was blown away. You’re handcuffing your tackles, and that’s what happens when you don’t effectively run a silent snap count. And it was terrible to watch.”

This was regarding not just a standard snap count, but specifically, the silent snap. The silent snap is a tool for catching the defense off guard when crowd noise is a factor. The essential signal for a silent snap is typically some sort of head move by the center to alert the offense to “snap about to happen!”. If your silent snap is effective, it can do a great job to keep the offensive line in charge…if ineffective, well…scroll up. Video. Hit play again.

These revelations had fallouts on other outlets that caused the blame to be redirected to Bryan Stork, such as this video from an Inside The Pylon article:

This same snap happened multiple times, but made me wonder: Did this same snap happen in the past? As a former center myself (though never past the high school level, being 5’10 and 145lbs at age 18 has some limitations), I’ve always dialed in on movement of the offensive lines, and always thought to myself while watching Patriots games “how is nobody keying on this?”, dating back to the Dan Koppen era.

Let’s take a look back at some other Patriots away losses in big games and see what we have…

Patriots Silent Snap
Dan Koppen at center vs the Broncos in 2005. Several instances of this timing throughout the game, same “tip” as Stork was accused of.

colts 06 snap
Also Koppen, same head bob immediately before the snap. Occurs multiple times.

broncos 13 snap
This is with Ryan Wendell at center. Almost identical timing to the Stork and Koppen snaps, with a very tiny delay between head bob and snap. Perhaps enough to draw a defense offside? Perhaps what Light was referring to? Or simply an idiosyncracy of Wendell vs the other two? This snap happens on seemingly every silent snap throughout the game, and was the last game with Dante Scarnecchia as the offensive line coach…and no Von Miller, as he was injured midseason.

When you dial in on a center’s head bob at youtube quality video for a couple hours, you really start to feel like some sort of 9/11 truther, just digging for clues that don’t exist.

Hopefully, with the return of Scarnecchia and perhaps a few less injuries, we can consider this mystery solved and an offense that runs on all cylinders, with the several types of silent snaps that Light referenced.

Patriots 2016 Preview: Defensive Overview

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We’re just 17 days away from the start of Patriots training camp! The offseason always seems so long but somehow goes by so quickly. As we gear up for a huge new season here on the blog (more on that in the coming days), I’m posting some excerpts from my 40-page Patriots 2016 preview.

Here’s my defensive overview,  you can buy a digital copy of the preview book its entirety here for just $4.

2015 Defensive Statistical Rankings

Overall DVOA – 12th           Yards-per-Game – 24th (339.4)

Passing DVOA – 10th           Points-per-Game – 10th (19.7)

Running DVOA – 13th          Third Down – 10th (37 percent)

Fourth Down –  10th (44 percent)

The Patriots had perhaps their best defensive season since the dynasty days in 2015. After much concern about transitioning from Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats seamlessly transitioned to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, and saw their third down defense enter the top-10 in the NFL after being ranked 16th in 2015.

Most encouraging was that the Pats stuck primarily with the Cover-1 Robber defense that they used most often in 2014 as well. Man defense is critical in today’s NFL and the Pats held up well minimizing zone defenses that can be picked apart.

Jamie CollinsWhile the offense was decimated with injuries, the defense had better injury luck. Both Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower missed some games, but everyone was available for the playoffs and they turned in two solid performances.

With everyone returning except Chandler Jones, there’s little reason to think they won’t be even better this year.

One factor could be a significantly tougher schedule in 2016. Instead of cake walks with the AFC South and NFC East, they’ll now have to face the daunting NFC West and AFC North, which feature a number of top quarterbacks and difficult matchups.

The major additions on defense include Chris Long, Shea McClellin and Terrence Knighton. While Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should take the starting defensive end roles, Long is more than capable as the designated pass rusher and rotational defensive end.

Prior to two years of injury, Long showed little sign of dropoff in an otherwise healthy career. He’ll surprise anyone writing him off and I expect this trio to be even better than they were with Chandler Jones. By the end of 2015, Sheard had surpassed Jones on the depth chart anyway, playing more snaps in both playoff games.

McClellin gives the Patriots a third linebacker/edge hybrid player who can do a little of everything like Hightower and Collins, though he worked with the defensive ends in minicamp. He also gives them long term insurance as both Collins and Hightower enter the final years of their deals (though I’d expect both to re-sign before the 2016 season is done).

Acquiring Knighton, picking up Alan Branch’s option, the release of Dominique Easley and the drafting of Vincent Valentine all signal the direction of the Patriots’ defense schematically. No longer are they interested in undersized three-technique penetrators.

No, now it’s now all about size in the middle and essentially a paired down version of Belichick’s old 3-4 defense. Malcom Brown is an outstanding athlete, and though he doesn’t quite have the height of the other three tackles, he and the others will be able to occupy the middle of offensive lines while the linebackers and defensive ends make the plays.

It’s exciting to return nearly the entire defense, along with some solid additions in both free agency and the draft who should contribute immediately. Expectations should be through the roof, but they’ll be tested right out of the gate and see every variation of offense that exists in the NFL. They’re built to deal with all of them.

Brady (2) and Gronk (9) top NFL’s Top 100 of 2015

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The NFL wrapped up their Top-100 of 2015 last night with Tom Brady coming in second (to Cam Newton) and Rob Gronkowski coming in ninth. You’ll have to click through to YouTube to watch the segments (Brady / Gronk). While the NFL has taken great steps forward making their content available online, they still won’t let you embed their stuff. Baby steps I guess.

Of course there’s some outrage that Brady wasn’t number one, but as someone who really doesn’t invest much time or energy in rankings, I say whatevs. Brady was brilliant in 2015, his second season in three years where his offense was effectively dismantled by injuries. Even in games where he lost key guys and the team was deflated (sorry), he still produced.

Most QBs would’ve folded after seeing Gronk go down like he did in Denver. Not Brady. Still led an epic drive with scrubs to force OT. As we saw in 2014, with a little injury luck in 2016, the Pats will be hard to keep out of the Super Bowl. Brady’s shown no sign of slowing down.

Despite Brady’s brilliance, which, let’s face it, everyone’s used to, it’s hard to say this wasn’t Cam Newton’s year. Yeah I know he sucked in the Super Bowl, but Brady also sucked in the 2010 AFCDG after being the unanimous MVP of the regular season. He still was #1 on the Top 100 that year. Everyone loves new flashy objects. That’s what Cam was after his superstar breakout season, so kudos to him.

And what does it matter? Not a whole lot. At least we get an extended segment on Brady since he’s in the Top 10. Other than that I don’t really care who was ranked where.

As for Gronk, he clearly belongs in the Top 10. It’s especially encouraging that he’s had two healthy seasons after 2011-2013 all ended with him in major surgery and rehab. You need to look no further than the final drive of the AFC Championship to see how unstoppable Gronk is. Huge fourth-down catch, huge touchdown and was open for the two-point conversion as well. That was all him and Brady, in a huge moment, doing what Top-10 players should do.

At that point Edelman was on one leg and everyone knew it was going to Gronk. They still couldn’t stop it.

If Gronk has the same injury luck for the third year in a row, the Pats offense will once again be a mostly unstoppable force.

 

 


#1 – Tom Brady – The Top 100 Players of 2011 by joshespinoza2

Cardinals All or Nothing Review

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Binged Amazon’s All or Nothing series all last vacation week, which followed the Arizona Cardinals all of last season. It’s yet another fantastic production from NFL Films. I’ve long since given up hope that the Patriots would ever allow this kind of access, although Bill Belichick’s A Football Life came pretty close, but it’s always fascinating to see the inner workings of an NFL team going through the treacherous grind of a full season.

I can never get enough of this kind of stuff. It’s clear that NFL Films is the true propaganda wing of the NFL and it’s why many of us got hooked on the game to begin with. Here’s what stood out to me, partially from a Patriots perspective, but mostly as a football fan.

You have to start with Bruce Arians whose colorful language might distract some from the excellent football coach that he is. It’s incredible that someone like him could kick around as an assistant for so long before getting his shot, while the same old head coaches keep getting recycled over and over again. I won’t say Arians makes the whole show, but there’s no question he’s the star and his attitude and football mind permeate throughout the organization.

It’s understandable why guys want to play for Arians, and that’s why it was even more shocking to see the Cardinals completely collapse in the NFC Championship.  Still, Arians can coach my team any day and I am fascinated to see what kind of game plan he puts together for the Patriots in Week 1.

That’s where I found my mind drifting during the show — Week 1, Patriots @ Cardinals.

The biggest problem is going to be David Johnson, where I’d expect Dont’a Hightower to have his hands full with the second-year back who was told by his position coach during his 2015 exit interview that his career should end with a bust in the Hall of Fame. Johnson’s a big back who can catch and that will pose a number of problems for the Patriots. The first defensive key to the game will be to stop Johnson.

On the other side of the ball the biggest question is of course which quarterback the Cardinals will be seeing in Week 1, whether it’s Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo. But the Cardinals have some questions of their own, including how ready Tyrann Mathieu will be coming off a torn ACL late in the 2015 season.

The Cardinals defense was worlds different once Mathieu went down. His leadership both on the field and off it was apparent over and over during the course of the series. And as good as Patrick Peterson is, he and the rest of the Arizona secondary are a far less intimidating squad with the Honey Badger.

Cardinals All or Nothing

Chandler Jones should be a big piece for the 2016 Cardinals defense.

The Cardinals will also welcome Chandler Jones into their mix and I’m sure the former Patriot will be fired up to play against his old team. The Cardinals are the most blitz-happy team in the league which could be extremely dangerous if they’re seeing Brady, who torches heavy blitzing teams, or extremely effective if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t seeing his hot reads clearly in his first start.

One thing to watch though, as Chandler is being moved to outside linebacker in Arizona, is that I expect the Patriots to get him in coverage against their tight ends as much as possible. And if you see Gronk or Bennett split out wide and Chandler going with them, look out (if you’re a Cardinals fan).

I was also extremely impressed with the management of the Cardinals, led by President Michael Bidwell and GM Steve Keim. Every time NFL Films captures the owner/management relationships, it’s always pretty awkward. Bidwell’s interactions with Keim and Arians was every bit as cringe-worthy as Robert Kraft trying to talk to Belichick at times in his A Football Life.  The owners always seem to come off like I worry I would come off to the “football guys”, like a fan whose genuine enthusiasm just doesn’t get the true respect of those who have been grinding in the NFL for decades.

But of course, the owners are the bosses leaving the “football guys” no choice but to accept all the tepid observations and awkward fist bumps. Although Bidwell has the eccentricity you’d expect from the latest in a long line of fortunate heirs, his love of his rescue dog who died during the show after a long bout with kidney disease humanized him. By the end of the show, he seemed more a valued member of the Cardinals organization than he did at the start, even if he was a little goofy.

Larry Fitzgerald only further cemented his place as a Hall of Famer during the 2016, capped off with amazing catch-and-run in the divisional round that set up a shovel pass touchdown to win the game on the next play. Larry has always had a reputation as one of the game’s good guys and that was on full display in the series.

I couldn’t help but find most of the player-only meetings consistently awkward. Patrick Peterson, Carson Palmer and Tyrann Mathieu were just a few to step up and address the team at various points of the season. I never felt even close to inspired or moved with them like I was when Arians spoke. It always feels forced when players try to talk to the team. Even when it was Ray Lewis. You just always get the feeling these guys are professionals and don’t truly respond when their teammates get rah-rah on them.

One conspicuous absence was any sight or mention of Jen Welter, the Cardinals’ female coaching assistant last season. I had spoken with Jen a couple times before she became an NFL coach and she is a truly passionate football person. Just watch some of the highlights from her playing days. Would’ve been nice to see a little bit on her and the significant step she took for women in the sport last season.

Overall, this was every bit the perfect production that we’ve come to expect from NFL Films. They are masters of truly capturing and framing the epic “good vs. evil” narrative we all to apply to our beloved football teams. It was stylized in the right spots, humanizing beyond football in the right spots and left you with the all-too-familiar feeling of how there’s only one happy team at the end of each season.

It may not be the Patriots, but All or Nothing is a great way to get you through the last couple weeks before training camp. It certainly got me even more fired up for the season opener on September 11th in Arizona. The Cardinals will have their best shot waiting for the Patriots.

Get a free trial of Amazon Prime and check out All or Nothing!