PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Deflategate is Over, Tom Brady will Sit Four Games

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Tom Brady posted the below message on Facebook today, putting an end to Deflategate once and for all.

Tom Brady Deflategate

It’s hard to believe this thing dragged on for as long as it did, and you can revisit all the choice Deflategate posts from PatsPropaganda here. The 2014 AFC Championship seems like a lifetime ago now.

While it will suck not to have Brady for the first four games of the season, and my disgust for the NFL’s handling of the entire affair burns brighter than ever, I’m glad to get away from labor law. This blog has always been a football-first blog. Now we can go back to that. In fact, it really already started yesterday, taking a look at how Garoppolo is better prepared than Matt Cassel was in 2008, but faces a far more daunting slate of games.

Brady will sit those four games, one more lost draft pick will go by in April of 2017 and then Deflategate can fade into a footnote of Brady’s career. But it certainly sets the stage for one more necessary championship run. That fifth Super Bowl means everything now. Not only would it put Brady in a class by himself as a quarterback, it forces Roger Goodell to hand over the Lombardi trophy to Tom’s awaiting hands one more time.

That might be a hollow victory, watching Goodell Bot act like it’s no big deal. Like it was all business. That Brady doesn’t want to murder him. But it would mean something to all the Patriots fans who have passionately defended Brady from the start to get one more moment like that.

Now we can move on. Kind of. There will always be the idiots who make air pressure jokes. Who think this was about the Patriots and Brady cheating and not a corrupt NFL office. But when the NFL punishment circus comes their team’s way all we can say is “told ya”. I think more and more fans are aware of this now. John Cena’s joke at the ESPY’s confirmed that for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00sRBDl1J2I

This is really nothing new for Patriots fans. We got through it with Spygate and we’ll get through it with Deflategate. Because we have the best coach, quarterback and team in the NFL and their run is not yet over.

I leave you with the first ever piece I wrote that got any internet attention. I wrote it over eight years ago and it’s just as true as ever.

Embrace the hate. We’re Darth Vader. And the rest of the NFL is living on Alderaan.

Got Hair?: Report from Patriots’ Celebrity Bartender Event with Dr. Robert Leonard

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Bar View

Thanks to the site, I was able to attend Dr. Robert Leonard’s celebrity bartending event on Tuesday night. Dr. Leonard is the founder and chief surgeon of Leonard Hair Transplant Associates and New England’s primary hair restoration doctor. He has helped a number of high-profile athletes including Wes Welker, Rob Ninkovich, Sebastian Vollmer, and Chris Gronkowski.

The aforementioned four are the “faces” of Leonard Hair Transplants and were the celebrity bartenders for the evening. It was my first experience like this, and it was extremely worthwhile. I really had an unbelievable time not only meeting the players, but other media members as well. Dr. Leonard also gave me hope for my own personal hair longevity, as he refuted my original thought that the gene is strictly from your grandfather on your mother’s side, in which case I’d probably be bald already. He did mention however that I still could be screwed, so we exchanged contact information.

I was hoping to get a little more individual time with the guys, but it was a regimented event, with a segment of signing autographs and taking pictures for the first half of the night and bartending for the second half. Over the course of the evening, I made several observations…

Observation #1: Sebastian Vollmer is freaking huge. For perspective sake, that’s me in the middle (se below) and I’m 6’1 200+ pounds. While the other guys would be fairly tough to pick out of a crowd if you weren’t familiar with their face, Sebastian sticks out like “The Hound” in Game of Thrones. Whatever height/weight “Seabass” is listed at, he’s absolutely all of it. His hand essentially absorbed mine as we shook, but he seems like the nicest guy on the planet, off the field that is.Players

Observation #2: Chris Gronk’s mannerisms, humor and voice are identical to Rob’s. When I asked him how the “Gronk Party Cruise” was, he answered, “It was crazy, everything you could imagine really…and more.” His expression as he proudly blurt out “and more” was so enigmatic I was afraid to ask a follow up question on the cruise. I immediately regretted not doing so…

Luckily, I was able to get a piece of football substance from Chris when I asked him about the landscape of the game, its transition to a passing league, and how it affects his position, fullback. Chris responded, “It has definitely affected us (fullbacks). Teams are opting for those big tight ends now, like you see on the Patriots, with Rob and the other guys. They can do a little more in the receiving game in most cases.” Chris and I agreed that the Pats undoubtedly missed injured fullback James Develin last season, especially during the winter: “Oh yeah, he’s a bad ass. You need that toughness. He plays with an edge.”

Observation #3: While Gronkowski was going with strictly Miller Lites, Nink and Welker were diving into some interesting pineapple cocktails. Stress on the plural. I can confirm these drinks packed a punch, because by the time Wes was serving drinks behind the bar, he had a nice glaze over his eyes reminiscent of your favorite doughnut. I was able to snag a quick picture with Wes, pre-glaze:Welker

Observation #4: Tom E. Curran from CSN and Rob “Hardy” Poole from 98.5 the Sports Hub are really approachable guys, and I enjoyed meeting both very much.

Hardy Tom Curran

I asked Hardy where his co-worker and everybody’s favorite broadcaster Scott Zolak was, and he responded, “Oh come on man, you really think we want ‘Zo driving home from this thing?!”

Curran reiterated to me his disgust with Dictator Goodell and how he’s handled you know what. He guessed Tommy B has a ‘50/50’ chance to suit up week 1, but admitted the entire thing is a crapshoot at this point. This was before we heard of the 2nd circuit’s decision, however, so his tune unfortunately may now have changed with this new information.

Overall, it really was an incredible experience and one that I’m very thankful for. Down the line, if you’re starting to lose your hair, call up Dr. Leonard at 1-800-GET-HAIR, or visit his website: https://www.hairdr.com/

Who knows? You might see me there!

What does Cassel’s 2008 mean for Garoppolo?

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Cassel 2008

Cassel celebrates a third quarter touchdown pass during their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday, Sept. 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

One of the common refrains you’ll hear with Tom Brady potentially sitting the first four games of the 2016 season is “well Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 in 2008, so Jimmy Garoppolo will be fine!” I agree to an extent, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dry and it’s worth taking putting that season into context and how different things will be in 2016.

We all remember that fateful opening game in 2008. The Pats were in white jerseys at home. Like Belichick’s SB42 way-too-short cutoff red hoodie something seemed off from the start. Then there were the big GU patches to honor Gene Upshaw that would forever make this game instantly recognizable. Brady hadn’t played at all in the preseason and Matt Cassel looked terrifyingly awful.

When Brady went down after Bernard Pollard dove into his knees then limped off the field, we knew it wasn’t good. Anyone who had watched the preseason thought we were dead meat with Cassel. But Cassel managed to put together a solid season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3693 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That included two fourth quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives.

But the problem, as Bill Belichick said himself in his episode of A Football Life, was that the Patriots could not beat the good teams in the AFC. Their only win over an AFC playoff team was in Miami, in a Wildcat revenge game. They lost to the Steelers, Chargers and Colts, the only three teams outside their division that they faced with winning records, not including a 9-7 Cardinals team that never got off the bus in Foxboro. They feasted on the terrible AFC and NFC West divisions.

Had the Patriots faced a more daunting schedule, we likely wouldn’t have the 11-5 argument to make.

Still, Cassel did far better than anyone would’ve expected based on his preseason. He had a veteran cast of weapons around him including Wes Welker in his prime, Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney. The defense however was at the end of the line. 2008 was their final gasp before the full turnover began the next offseason. Had Brady stayed healthy this probably would’ve been their downfall.

The 2016 Patriots are a little different. While they have a lot of veterans in place on offense, their defense is just hitting its prime. That’s what stands out to me most. The 2008 defense was not one that could singlehandedly win games. The 2016 should be.

Garoppolo also seems a far better fit for the Patriots’ offense at this stage. Simply put, he’s more talented than Cassel and his quick release should fit what the Patriots do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett extremely well. He also has some of the athleticism that Cassel displayed which gave teams used to facing the statue-esque Brady a new twist.

Garoppolo’s first TD pass.

Belichick and Josh McDaniels had to adjust on the fly when Brady went down. Now they have an entire training camp to cater the offense to Garoppolo’s strengths. This is vital because 2016’s schedule is far more daunting than 2008’s was. This is why the comparison is a hard one to make. There are six 2015 playoff teams on the docket this year, including two (Cardinals and Texans) which Garoppolo would have to face.

And the other two matchups against Miami and Buffalo feature defenses that would push even Brady to the limit. Luckily three of the first four are at home. That counts for a lot against defenses that love to blitz.

Garoppolo should be ready for this. Most quarterbacks are thrust into the fire long before they’ve had a chance to apprentice for two seasons under a Hall of Fame quarterback. And if the Patriots are ever going to be able to get something for Garoppolo, now is the time to showcase him.

Cassel’s 2008 has some similarities, but he was a less-talented player facing less-talented teams. He performed as you’d expect a Belichick-prepared player would, and probably would’ve made some noise in the playoffs had the Jets just beaten the Dolphins in Week 17, allowing the Pats in.

It’s a tall order for Garoppolo facing four very good defenses, but should be better prepared than Cassel was with all this time to prepare. I have no doubt Belichick will have Garoppolo ready to go with a plan that suits his strengths, which just happen to be very similar strengths to Brady’s.

And in the long run, getting a look at Garoppolo now is really what’s best for the Patriots organization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KvrEZOaR6Q

Will the Black Unicorn mean the return of the 1,000 yard Rusher?

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That’s idiotic, you say, the Patriots haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher in 4 years, that’s not how their offense functions. BB and McDaniels never feed the rock to an RB enough for that to happen and the short passing game is essentially the running game. The additions they made in their offense (Hogan, Bennett, Washington, Lewis back from ACL) are in the passing game not rushing. And for God’s sakes, the offensive line was atrocious last year, they can’t put on Sunblock, let alone run block (you’re right that was a lazy joke). And now Jimmy G is starting, they’ll load up the box. You’re a dickhead, Conway.

All of those things can be true and there will still be a 1,000-yard rusher on the team.

A bit of history: the last time the Patriots had a 1,000-yard rusher was 2012 with current Detroit Lion and failed Jets experiment, Steven Ridley. Before that, the last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2010 with out-of-the-league Benjarvus Green Ellis. How did those two deadbeats gain 1,000 yards. I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “Baron Fernandez and Slob Bonks-out-see”.

That’s right it’s the return of the 2-tight end sets with 2 elite tight ends!

At least on paper, the “Bennett and Gronk” 2 TE set has a fair chance of being better than “Hernandez and Gronk“ (i.e. the most-efficient offense in NFL history according to DVOA). But even if it doesn’t match those levels, it all but guarantees that the Pats running attack will be elite. With Gronk and the Black Unicorn (best nickname in the NFL), the Pats will have dynamic playmakers that also happen to be complete and total football players. They can run block, pass block and run precise routes. BB favorites. Also this creates the perfect set of training wheels for Garropolo.

The reason why this is so important is Garropolo now has options at the line of scrimmage, lots and lots of options. For obvious reasons, two-TE sets with two good-to-great tight ends create more offensive mismatches than any other formation. You can leave both in and run with seven blockers or you can send them both out and have essentially a 4/5 WR set, or you can leave one in to block, send one out on a seam route. This forces a huge decision for defenses pre-snap because they have to declare how they’re going to defend the match-up with their on-field personnel 15 or so seconds before the play begins or risk an incredible mismatch.

Tom Brady eats this type of fear like dripping kale Froyo, Jimmy will eat them like deep dish pizza (he’s from Illinois). And because NFL coaches are a bunch of risk-averse checkers players, they will show their hand and likely bring in safety help.

An extra safety sprints on the field, then another. Very few safeties in the league can handle Gronk or Bennett one-on-one in run blocking. Or if a bolder coach, like Rex decides to leave an extra linebacker on the field to try to maintain some strength against the run, Brady and Garropolo have options: run the ball away from the linebacker, play action to freeze him, or attack him with one of the 20 quick release receivers currently on the roster. And if defenses actually show respect for the run and leave two extra linebackers on the field, Brady and even Garropolo will eat and eat well. Hell, even, Tim Tebow would eat well if he could hit Buzzards Bay.

The last concern is the O-line. 2012 had Solder and Vollmer at the Tackle spots (sound familiar?), Mankins at LG was an upgrade over whoever takes over, but Wendell and Connolly at C and RG are both downgrades to Stork or Andrews and the crew at RG. Scar’s back and the team will run block well. But the truth is that defenses will be so worried about getting burned that running lanes should amply open up. Scar will be declared a genius and he is, but not because of how well the Pats run this season, that will all be because of Bennett’s addition.

So all of this boils down to the question: who gets those touches. Who better to follow in the footsteps of Green Ellis and Ridley than LeGarrette Blount? In fact, that’s the kind of runner he is, he will have a hole at the line of scrimmage and we all know he has straight line speed that can take it 50 yards. Talk about hot takes: LaGarrette Blount on the docket for a cool g.

A few Residual notes: a.) 25.7% of Green Ellis’ 3,914 career yards came during the ’10 campaign! #FeelTheBenj!

b.) Steven Ridley has rushed for 2,907 yards in his career. He gained 1263 in 2012. 43% of his career happened that year.

c.) If Isaiah Crowell becomes available, and by all accounts he will, the Pats should pounce. He’s a perfect compliment to their RBs and would allow them to move on from Blount. He’d likely have 1,500 All purpose as a competent receiver as well.

1st POST MEA CULPA: I’d like to apologize to my family. I had a goal to quit the NFL and I fell off the wagon, barely made it through training camp last year, Goddammit I was right back in the mix to hear Mike Tomlin bitch about communications systems. Helped that TB beat Goodell in court. I love football and hate the NFL. Anyway, I’m back I understand that makes me some kind of hypocrite, but I’m good with it, I hope you are too. Gonna be a great season! And now we get to evaluate Jimmy.

Just more fuel to Brady’s fire.

Deflategate Day 535: En Banc Hearing Denied

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Deflategate En BancIt’s looking more likely that ever that Tom Brady will be sitting the first four games of the 2016 season. The second circuit court denied Brady and the NFLPA’s appeal for an En Banc hearing on Deflategate, leaving limited options for the defamed quarterback. Brady could try to take it to the Supreme Court, but he’s just about out of options.

For Pats fans, there are so many emotions. Everyone is sick of Deflategate. Even those of us who are apoplectic at the way the NFL treated their star player are ready to be done with it. And by now it’s easy to find the silver linings.

Jimmy Garoppolo is now poised to play at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston and vs. Buffalo. Three home games, but four defenses that are daunting. In the long term, it’s great for the Patriots to get a look at Garoppolo now, in his third year. Next offseason will be the last time the Pats could move Garoppolo and get something for him. So this will be an audition as much as anything.

And really, even with Brady, the Pats usually sputter a bit out of the gate. Even a 1-3 record wouldn’t be insurmountable, while 3-1 or 2-2 are usually par for the course anyway. So to the 31 teams who are reacting like the Bills, nah-nah-nah-poo-poo the Patriots are still going to be fine, not only this season, but for future seasons because they’ll truly know what they have in their backup QB.

Plus Brady gets a lighter training camp and shortened season which can only benefit the soon-to-be 39 year-old. He’ll have four weeks to stew and will be ready to unleash hell on the Cleveland Browns on October 9th, before making his first home appearance against the Bengals. I’m most curious how Brady studies the offense in those first four games, what he sees and how he can help implement ways to use new players like Martellus Bennett.

But it still sucks. The NFL played dirty from the start with this whole affair. From refusing to correct false information in the media, to planting lies in the media to support their version, to moving the goal posts after the appeal, the NFL was in it to win it the entire time. Forget the actual truth and evidence. They saw their chance to finally get those Patriots, and pulled out all the stops to make sure they prevailed.

Maybe Brady tries to go to the Supreme Court. He certainly has the legal team in place for it. Maybe, like many would love, he opens a defamation lawsuit against the NFL (that’s where things would get uber interesting). Or maybe this really is the end of a crazy charade that lasted over a year-and-a-half all over footballs that were .4% below what the Ideal Gas Law predicted they would be.

Malcolm Butler Named 8th Best CB on Ringer NFL Show

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I think that Malcolm Butler is sort of a laboratory to prove how much confidence has to do with the Cornerback position. I remember speaking to him the Thursday before the Super Bowl…and he lacked confidence, he was not brash or bold or anything. I talked to him before the season last year, 8 months after he made one of the biggest plays ever, and there was just a different air about him. That showed on the field and now I think he’s a top ten player. I just don’t think you can put any sort of quantitative value on confidence.

 

-Kevin Clark: The Ringer NFL Show
July 8, 2016

I found the nugget about Butler’s growth to be interesting. I love the energy and confidence Butler plays with and I think it’s been one of his best allies on the field. Butler said himself after the Super Bowl he knew he was gonna make a play. A little swagger seemed to be his secret weapon.

A Look Back at the Patriots Silent Snap

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When we last left our beloved Patriots, this is what we were left to chew on for 7 months:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFFZws3Apbo

Some of the plays made here can be attributed to this fact: Von Miller was the second overall pick in the draft in 2011. Many players live up to the expectations of being a high draft pick. Many other players do not. Some, like Von Miller, end up good enough that in hindsight that even using #1 overall pick seems like a steal. The interception and the open field tackles that Miller made throughout the game speak for themselves.

His major effect, though, came through rushing the passer. He appeared to be as dialed in as any single top-tier pass rusher the Patriots have ever faced in a big game…and there have been many. Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, Justin Tuck/Jason Pierre-Paul/Michael Strahan, Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril/Bruce Irvin, Terrell Suggs, JJ Watt, Jason Taylor…some had great games, some were completely neutralized, and again…there was Von Miller.

In the following days, several writers and radio hosts attempted figure out what went wrong (many of them simply blaming the entire game on Marcus Cannon), with the most brief but most likely accurate assessment coming from a Matt Light interview on WAAF:

“[Denver] is a horrible place to go play, especially in that circumstance,” he said. “You’ve got the best defense in the league. You’re in their place. And you don’t practice a snap count? It blows my mind that, really, the game was lost because of a snap count. I don’t think that they practiced their snap count at all, really, to any degree. We went into a game being able to snap silent count five different ways. Not two. Five. And in that game, I watched them on the snap count and I was blown away. You’re handcuffing your tackles, and that’s what happens when you don’t effectively run a silent snap count. And it was terrible to watch.”

This was regarding not just a standard snap count, but specifically, the silent snap. The silent snap is a tool for catching the defense off guard when crowd noise is a factor. The essential signal for a silent snap is typically some sort of head move by the center to alert the offense to “snap about to happen!”. If your silent snap is effective, it can do a great job to keep the offensive line in charge…if ineffective, well…scroll up. Video. Hit play again.

These revelations had fallouts on other outlets that caused the blame to be redirected to Bryan Stork, such as this video from an Inside The Pylon article:

This same snap happened multiple times, but made me wonder: Did this same snap happen in the past? As a former center myself (though never past the high school level, being 5’10 and 145lbs at age 18 has some limitations), I’ve always dialed in on movement of the offensive lines, and always thought to myself while watching Patriots games “how is nobody keying on this?”, dating back to the Dan Koppen era.

Let’s take a look back at some other Patriots away losses in big games and see what we have…

Patriots Silent Snap
Dan Koppen at center vs the Broncos in 2005. Several instances of this timing throughout the game, same “tip” as Stork was accused of.

colts 06 snap
Also Koppen, same head bob immediately before the snap. Occurs multiple times.

broncos 13 snap
This is with Ryan Wendell at center. Almost identical timing to the Stork and Koppen snaps, with a very tiny delay between head bob and snap. Perhaps enough to draw a defense offside? Perhaps what Light was referring to? Or simply an idiosyncracy of Wendell vs the other two? This snap happens on seemingly every silent snap throughout the game, and was the last game with Dante Scarnecchia as the offensive line coach…and no Von Miller, as he was injured midseason.

When you dial in on a center’s head bob at youtube quality video for a couple hours, you really start to feel like some sort of 9/11 truther, just digging for clues that don’t exist.

Hopefully, with the return of Scarnecchia and perhaps a few less injuries, we can consider this mystery solved and an offense that runs on all cylinders, with the several types of silent snaps that Light referenced.