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Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks

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After a bye week and an exhausting election, I think we’re all ready for Patriots football to be back and it would be hard to ask for a better game than a rematch of Super Bowl 49 against the Seattle Seahawks.

Let’s face it, the competition in the NFL stinks this year. Many teams have regressed and only a couple have risen to new heights. But the Patriots and Seahawks are two well-coached teams that play a physical brand of football. It should be a fantastic game and one of the last/only true tests for this New England team.

Here’s my gameplan, with some help from Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl 49 gameplan.

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Patriots’ Do Your Job Keys vs. Seahawks in SB49

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If you haven’t watched the Do Your Job documentary from NFL Films above, stop reading this blog and get on it right now. This, along with Bill Belichick’s A Football Life, are the two most critical must-watch pieces about the dynasty Patriots. Nowhere else will you find the kind of look behind the curtain that these two shows provide.

One of my favorite parts (and no, it’s definitely not the Deflategate act) was where the Patriots coaches talked about their keys to the game going into Super Bowl 49. It’s worth a quick look back since this Seahawks team is very much like the one they saw in Arizona and the keys are likely to be very similar.

If you want to hop to the part where they talk about these keys, fast forward to 22:30.

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The Rematch: Week 10 Seattle Seahawks Scouting Report

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It’s been a while since Russel Wilson has seen Malcolm Butler (outside of his nightmares of course), but the time is now for a Super Bowl rematch. While the teams are not the same as they were that fateful night, the concepts and key players remain largely the same. Belichick himself said that there was much to glean from their last meeting so let’s hope the result is the same.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Seattle Seahawks, aka, “The Dirty Birds”

Week 10 vs Seattle Seahawks

Sunday November 13

8:30 pm EST, NBC

Low 40’s 0% chance of rain, 6 mph winds

Opponent/Patriots Stats
Seahawks: 5-2-1

Notable Games: A nail biter Monday night against Buffalo, the team squeaked out a win over Rex Ryan’s squad. The game was marred by bizarre officiating and a controversial foul where it appears Richard Sherman lunged at Dan Carpenter‘s legs during a kick. The team also played in one of two (!) ties in the NFL this season versus the Cardinals with 6 (!!) points apiece.

Common Opponents: Arizona Cardinals (Pats win, SEA tied), Miami Dolphins (Both teams won), Buffalo Bills (SEA won, Pats won 2nd time, lost 1st match up).

History vs. Pats: Super Bowl XLIX in 2015 (Pats won 28-24). This is Seattle’s 2nd game at Gillette Stadium, the first coming in 2004. The last 3 contests between the teams have been away from Foxboro. The most recent Seattle victory against the Pats was a 24-23 game in 2012.

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Examining Dion Lewis’s Role in the Patriots Offense

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With reports that the Patriots are holding out hope that Dion Lewis will be able to return in a limited fashion this Sunday against Seattle, I thought I would examine his role in the offense last season and the difference in usage between Lewis and his replacement, James White. The Patriots have until next Thursday to take Lewis off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list in order for him to be able to play at all this season.

In Lewis’s absence, James White has done a more than admirable job filling in as the receiving back. Last season, in nine games without Lewis, White had 40 catches for 410 yards, good for 10.3 yards per catch, and added four touchdowns through the air. While Lewis had nine more catches in two fewer games, White’s average yards per catch was just a half yard behind Lewis’s 10.8 mark. He even had Pro Football Focus’s third-best receiving grade by running backs last season, trailing only former Patriot Danny Woodhead and the Lions Theo Riddick.

While White’s numbers in the running game were far worse than Lewis’s (22 carries for just 56 yards last season, and averaged a paltry 2.5 yard per carry following Lewis’s injury), he was not really asked to fill the void Lewis’s injury left in the running game (as evident by the fact he averaged only 2.4 carries a game). White is a back who thrives in one area, the passing game, but is unable to shoulder the type of load Lewis was able to take on because Lewis is simply the more well-rounded back with a higher talent level. White is tremendous at what he is asked to do, and remains near the top of PFF’s receiving grades for running backs (he ranks 3rd again this season), but Lewis still has a far greater influence on the offense as a whole.

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Belichick on Patriots Injury Improvements (so far…)

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Brady after Gronk looked lost for the season in Denver, 2015.

If there’s one dead horse I’ve been beating this season it’s that all that really matters for the 2016 Patriots are injuries. We can argue about Jamie Collins, the ups-and-downs of the run game or the defense’s lack of sacks or poor start on third downs early in the season, but all that’s going to matter come January is what the Injured Reserve list looks like.

In the last three seasons, the Patriots won a Super Bowl and lost to the Broncos in Denver. One team was almost fully healthy. The other two were shells of their initial September rosters.

It’s sad that this is what football has come to in some ways… that who got hurt is nearly as important as who won. But when you have a well-oiled machine like the Patriots at this phase of Bill Belichick’s tenure, that’s what the season gets reduced to. And with the rest of the NFL withering into mediocrity or worse, I can’t help but wonder if this is the year the Patriots just go berserker right through the Super Bowl and finish the job the 2007 team fell just short on.

If the Patriots core remains intact, it’s hard finding a team that will be able to stop them, at least on paper, though history tells us any potential Super Bowl will go down to the final drive no matter who the opponent is.

The good news is at the halfway point the Patriots are pretty as close to full health as could be realistically hoped. Belichick touched on it a bit on Sunday, including how the team has made changes to try to prevent injuries.

We’ve tried every year to work a little bit harder, try to do things a little bit better, and hopefully some of those little things are paying off. I know the players work extremely hard on their training as well as their nutrition, hydration, rest, recovery, all the things that go into performance. We’re always looking to fine tune those for each individual because they’re all different. We all have different makeups and different little things that can help different players in unique ways, so always trying to stay on top of that. I think our staff has done a good job and the players have done a good job, so hopefully we’ll be able to continue that over the next eight regular season games.

I always viewed injuries as the will of the Football Gods, but it’s good to know the team is making every effort they can to prevent them.

 

Patriots Defense Setting Tone With Big Hits

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The Bend-But-Don’t-Break Defense can drive fans nuts. Thrilling, eye catching hot take, I know.

As the Patriots’ season has gone along through eight games, it certainly has become much less prone to break, and even better, less bendy. Third down defense has steadily gone up (19th in the league, 10th in the last 3 games), red zone stops have steadily gone up (19th in the league, 8th in the last 3 games), and points allowed has been a strength, the Patriots at third in the league as of this writing with 16.5/game behind Minnesota (14.9) and Seattle (15.6).

One more thing has started to tick up in recent weeks, and that is something else that makes a Bend-But-Don’t-Break defense hit the next level: Big Hits!

Not just big hits…but intelligent, punishing, and fundamentally sound big hits. Nothing dirty, nothing late, no launching. Discipline. Growing up playing football, every good coach will give some version of this instruction on hitting the opponent: Hit them clean, make them HATE football.

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Best/Worst in Weekly Patriots Links-11/5

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Wow. And here I thought we’d be getting a nice, relaxing bye week. Talk about a roller coaster of emotions. Morale couldn’t have been much higher coming out of Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Sure, the defense wasn’t great (more on this later), but the offense looked flat out unstoppable with Brady continuing to light the world on fire every 7 days. Plus, save for a handful of teams, the quality of play in the league is down (Exhibit A: AFC East). As nit-picky as we can be, and as flawed as we perceive them, the reality is the Pats are the most well rounded team with the greatest top to bottom talent in the game. Locally, Chris Price (WEEI) summarized the Patriots first half of the regular season in his “What We Learned Sunday” piece:

“It’s still pretty early, still,” cautioned Tom Brady when asked about reaching the midway point with a 7-1 mark. “We’ve got a long way to go.” 

Yes, but with apologies to Yogi Berra, when it comes to the AFC East, it’s getting late early. The Bills are starting to fade. The Dolphins are wildly inconsistent and the Jets are just lucky to be 3-5. 

In other words, rinse and repeat. Don’t be the guy that picks against the Pats in the AFC East before the season starts. Until proven otherwise, the division goes through New England, no matter what the circumstance.

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