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An Independent Patriots Blog

Pats Potential Playoff Primer: The AFC Elite Scouting Report

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The bye week is often a time to reflect on the first chunk of the games a team played and to look forward to what is to come. I’ve been thinking a lot about the scope of the league and how the Pats will fare come playoff time. It has seemed for a while now that the regular season is just one big warm up for the real show in Foxboro, the playoffs. So let’s dive in, shall we?

Here’s everything you need to know about the best of the best of the AFC aka, “The Teams Just Trying to Keep Up.”

This is where the AFC stands as of today in terms of playoff seeding

Credit to CBSSports

Credit to CBSSports

The Patriots are at the top of the conference at 7-1, followed closely by the Raiders, only 1 game back. The Steelers being behind the Texans is a little shocking, and you’d think you could pin that on Ben Roethlisberger being out injured, but he was only out a game against the Patriots, a contest Pittsburgh was hardly guaranteed to win with Roethlisberger. Clearly, the best QB of these six teams belongs to Pats Nation followed by a (when healthy) Roethlisberger, and then Oakland with Derek Carr. The other three are serviceable QBs ranging from inconsistent to above average. Looking beyond these 6 teams, the only other teams with at least 4 wins are the Bills, which received a thrashing from TFB last week, and the Tennessee Titans who still feel one season away before being competitive with the top of the AFC.

All these teams have their strengths, and how exciting that the Raiders are relevant in the NFL again, but now let’s look at how they might match up with the Patriots.

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Ranking the Patriots Impending Free Agents

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Dont'a Hightower

Dont’a Hightower

The Patriots are set for a major re-evaluation of their defense this offseason with a number of key free agents that will force them to determine the direction they want to go. The offensive free agents won’t be far behind. Of course, things certainly look a lot easier now (unfortunately) than they did when both Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins were still on the team. Two less major pieces to worry about paying.

And really, the poor overall performance of many of the impending free agents still on the team make it easier too. Again, unfortunately. But of course things can change quickly as the important part of the season and playoffs roll around. A huge playoff performance by one of these players could up their importance and price tag.

We’re at the halfway point of the season, so why not take stock of where we’re at?

One note before we dive in, Malcolm Butler is a restricted free agent. The Patriots should, in my opinion, pursue a long-term extension with him, but the team can easily slap a first round tender for around $3.6 million and retain his rights unless someone wants to give up a first rounder for him, which I wouldn’t entirely rule out.  So for our purposes here, I’m leaving him off this list, but if he was on it he’d be second.

Let’s do it, starting from the lowest priority, counting down to the most important.

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5 Patriots Defensive Fixes for the Bye Week

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The bye week is a time to take a step back and reflect on what the team needs to do better moving forward into the second half of the season. Never has that been more true than with the Patriots defense, now that they’ve traded away one of their key contributors. There are holes to fill and improvements to be made.

Aside from replacing Jamie Collins from a personnel perspective, it’s also worth taking a look at the scheme and what things haven’t quite been working out the way the Patriots coaching staff might’ve envisioned them.

Here are five moves for the Patriots defense that should help them moving into the winter months.

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Patriots Film Review: Defense Got No Juice Edition

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In today’s film review I’m going to try to ignore Jamie Collins. It would be easy to make this all about Collins and how his play in this single game may or may not have impacted him getting traded. But here on the blog I’m about the future and without Collins there’s plenty of work to be done. What exactly the remaining players need to do to pick up the slack is what I prefer to focus on.

Let’s take a look at what went down in Buffalo.

— Alan Branch should’ve had two sacks on the first drive but Tyrod Taylor twice evaded his finishing grasp, including one on third down that allowed the drive to keep going. At least he was winning his matchup. That’s the biggest thing that hasn’t been happening. And yes, as it’s been said this week, Branch might be the Pats best defensive player the first half of this season, at least in the front seven. Put me down for Malcolm Butler overall.

— After giving up a BDB (Bend-Don’t-Break) first drive, allowing three points, the Pats forced a three-and-out on the next drive but the third down should’ve been converted if not for a Buffalo drop. The Pats rushed five and again, nobody got home, including, uh, #91, who was stopped stone cold coming off the edge by a nice block from the running back. Lucky stuff.

But let’s cleanse the palate with another of what are becoming weekly Elandon Roberts GIFs. Watch him push the lead blocker #70 back into the hole and use him to help make the tackle.

Elandon Roberts

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Why Did This Patriots Defense Need a Message Sent to Them?

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Bill Belichick GIFSo by now you’ve heard the news, the Patriots traded Jamie Collins yesterday and because of the bye week, we get to spend the next two weeks doing nothing but trying to figure out why. The resulting media maelstrom was entirely predictable since this is the biggest BB shocker move in the age of social media over-saturation, where everyone has an opinion and will express their outrage.

Yesterday, I wrote some initial thoughts, but as things have simmered and the talking points have coalesced, it’s time to wade into the fray again to try and make some sense it.

The one thing I keep coming back to is the famous “we’re building a team, not collecting talent” quote. Whatever the reasons may or may not be, and there are plenty of them, Belichick believed the team, and specifically the defense, would be better without a super talented player like Collins.

We can talk about him being inconsistent at times (who isn’t?) or that he wanted a monster deal the Patriots would never get him, or whatever else has popped up over the last 24 hours, but no one outside the building has the full picture like Bill Belichick does. No one knows the internal team dynamics nor the true X-and-O’s like him.

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Breaking Down the Patriots’ Cornerbacks

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Patriots Cornerbacks

The Patriots came away with yet another relatively easy victory Sunday, this time dispatching the Bills thanks to another stellar performance by Tom Brady and the offense. The defense held its own after a discouraging opening drive, but issues remained throughout the game that have been evident throughout the season. While Malcolm Butler is playing at an Pro-Bowl level, the player across from him, which has rotated between Logan Ryan and Eric Rowe, has been subpar at best. Looking at the Patriots roster, the second corner spot seems to be the teams biggest weakness, and it seems to be the one spot that has the potential to cripple the Patriots when the playoffs come around.

The most surprising thing about the struggles in the secondary is that the unit was ranked third coming into this season by Pro Football Focus, trailing only Denver and Arizona, and ranking ahead of units like the Legion of Boom in Seattle and the star-studded secondary in Minnesota. The Patriots secondary was ranked so high in large part due to the play of Logan Ryan last season, who actually ranked ahead of his teammate Butler in 2015. Ryan finished as PFF’s 11-best corner in the league, with Butler coming in as the 24th ranked corner. Remember, last season Ryan effectively shut down the likes of Deandre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, and seemed to be trending towards the elite status that Butler has reached this season (Butler is PFF’s 4th-best corner this season, with a 86.7 grade). Instead, he has gone in the opposite direction, getting beat time and time again, leading to a benching in Week 7 against the Steelers, and getting replaced by Eric Rowe in the starting lineup this past Sunday.

So far this season, Ryan has allowed a 63% completion percentage when targeted, giving up 33 catches for 403 yards on 52 targets, allowing 12 yards per catch. He has also given up two touchdowns. The past three weeks Ryan has been even worse, allowing a completion percentage of 70%, and averaging 16 yards per catch when in coverage. His performance this season is so far removed from his outstanding play in 2015 that has regressed from 11th-ranked corner last season to 59th in 2016.

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Shock Report: Patriots Trade Jamie Collins to Browns

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Bill Belichick and the Patriots have a long list of bombshell trades over the past 16 years and today’s reported trade of Jamie Collins to the Cleveland Browns for a third round pick is right up there with the 2009 Richard Seymour trade to Oakland and the 2010 mid-season Randy Moss trade to Minnesota.

Jamie CollinsUpdate:

Collins was a rotational linebacker on Sunday against the Bills, playing in passing situations. He was just taken off the injury report on Friday so initially I assumed he was still just being managed. But apparently there was something more going on behind the scenes. Collins has certainly been up and down this season, but never did I suspect the Patriots would trade him mid-season like this.

I don’t want to speculate, but the lower value of a third round pick (likely high in the third round, not much lower than Chandler Jones’ price) indicates the Patriots weren’t just thinking they couldn’t re-sign Collins, they didn’t really want him or think they needed him anymore. The speculation in the coming hours and days will be fascinating, because unlike Seymour and Moss, there’s no easy assumption why the Patriots would move on from a player many thought was one of the best linebackers in the league.

It’s safe to say though that Belichick must be unhappy with the defense. The message is clear. Yes, they’ve made incremental process each week recently, but that doesn’t look like it’s good enough for BB. My first instinct is that this goes toward the old Scott Pioli quote — “we’re building a team, not collecting talent.” Jamie Collins is the kind of talent anyone wants to collect, but how this plays out in building a team will be seen over the next three-plus months.

We’ve known that 2017 would be a reset year on defense with so many free agents and with the trades of Chandler Jones and now Collins, they’ve jettisoned more key players than they’ve extended.

Mike Lombardi’s take:

This now means that Elandon Roberts will be thrust into an even more prominent role, while Kyle Van Noy could find himself playing quite a bit after the bye week. And there’s even more pressure on Dont’a Hightower to not only stay healthy, but for the Patriots to re-sign him.

Another jaw-dropper in a long list of jaw droppers, and maybe the most jaw droppiest. Going to take a while to process it, and with the bye week there’ll be even more time to speculate just what the hell is going on. Now you wonder if Collins disappears into the mess that is Cleveland, perhaps never to attain the elite linebacker level most had him pencilled into already.

Or does he hit free agency this offseason and join up with a team where he could come back to haunt the Pats? That’s a frightening Halloween thought.

Some tweets coming out that put things in a bit of context…