December 16, 2010

Usually it takes until after a good team that looks unbeatable gets beaten that we hear the “blueprint” song and dance, but this week NFL Network busts it out on the Patriots. Not that anyone actually believes there is a blueprint that the Packers minus Aaron Rodgers are capable of executing since they don’t have Peyton Hillis.

I’m going to let everyone in on a little secret. As someone who follows the Patriots as closely as anyone the blueprint to beating them is actually quite simple.

Don’t Turn The Ball Over
Force Turnovers

It’s really that simple. Of course it’s easier said than done, but the Patriots do not have a suffocating defense by any stretch of the imagination. They probably will in 2011, and definitely should by 2012, but right now in 2010 you can move the ball on them.

If/when the Patriots lose again you’ll see it coming because Brady will throw an interception, somebody will fumble, and the Pats defense won’t get any turnovers of their own.

Yes, as with any team, the key is running the ball on them like the Browns did. I chalk that performance by the Pats D up to just being a really bad day. Anyone who’s played sports knows that some days you just don’t have it. And that day in early November the Pats just didn’t have it. But generally the Patriots run defense has been solid despite what the statistics say.

But let’s remember that this weekend the Patriots starting down lineman in the 3-4 base defense, the one they use to stop the run, will likely feature Vince Wilfork with two rookies, Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick. There’s a chance we see Gerard Warren out there, but Ron Brace was concussed against the Bears and we haven’t seen Mike Wright or Myron Pryor in weeks.

The presence or absence of Warren could really be a huge factor in the game. Especially if Brace is out.

They’ll also be without their 3-4 Strong Inside Linebacker (aka the “Mike”) Brandon Spikes. So if ever there was a time that the Patriots might be a little weakened in their run defense this could be the game.

Even with Matt Flynn at the helm the Packers scare me. How many times have we seen a backup quarterback tear it up against our defense? Just off the top of my head I can remember the Eagles and Ravens in 2007, the Seahawks in 2008, the Panthers in 2009, and the Bills, Browns and Lions in 2010. Of course the Pats were 6-1 in those games but it was scary every time!

I don’t know how good Flynn is, but I’ve seen enough know that even backups can elevate their games against New England. So don’t take Rodgers sitting out as a sign it’s going to be an automatic domination.

There is a blueprint to beating the Pats, but it’s the blueprint to beating any good team. Don’t make mistakes.