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Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Patriots’ 2017 season is finally here. Yes, there’s been plenty of ups and downs already, as there often are during the summer and fall, but really, for the Patriots the regular season doesn’t truly start until December and here it is.

So now things get real. Had the Patriots won Monday against Miami this game in Pittsburgh would’ve had a little less flair. But now, it’s everything. The Pats are still very much in the driver’s seat of their own destiny, but a loss would set a nuclear bomb off with just two weeks to go, possibly sending them all the way down to the third seed below, gasp, Jacksonville.

In a season that largely felt like going through the motions suddenly things could take a drastic left turn into unfamiliar territory. The good news? The Patriots have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers in every meaningful game during the Belichick/Brady dynasty. Brady has feasted on the Steeler defense, going 3-2 in the Steel City and 4-0 at home.

There’s no question where we’d all prefer the AFC Championship to be should there be a rematch, although the Pats have beaten the Steelers in two AFC Championships in Pittsburgh. I’d prefer not to have to try and make it three.

What the Patriots have to do to define their season with a back-against-the-wall win this weekend in then gameplan!

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Scouting Report: Pittsburgh Steelers

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Fresh off being completely dominated in Miami against the Dolphins (what a weird sentence that is), the New England Patriots now turn their sights to their biggest test of the year: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner of Sunday’s game will almost assuredly have home field for the inevitable title game between these two teams (knock on wood). While the Steelers do boast the best record in the AFC, four out of their last five games have been decided by game-winning field goals in the final minute, coming against the 3-10 Colts, the 7-6 Rodgers-less Packers, the 5-8 Bengals, and the 7-6 Ravens. This team is good, for sure, but I don’t think they are nearly as good as their record and their stats suggests.

The Steelers offense has put up the 4th most yards in football and 2nd most pass yards in the NFL, just behind the Patriots in both stats. They possess the NFL’s rushing yards leader in Leveon Bell, but strangely rank just 23rd in the league in total rushing yards (Bell has accounted for 85% of their rushing yards). Bell leads the league in rushing because of volume, not efficiency; he is first in the NFL in attempts with 283 (shoutout Atlanta), but is just 21st in yards per carry (of rushers with at least 100 attempts). The Patriots locked down the Steelers daunting running game in the AFC Championship Game, but, as Steeler fans are ever so quick to mention, Bell played just 11 snaps in that game, and the now-retired DeAngelo Williams was tasked with leading the Steelers rushing attack, which only gained 54 yards on 20 carries, good for just 2.7 yards per carry.

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Pregame Meal: Thoughts on Injuries, Steelers and Pats’ Battered D

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Another Sunday, another major injury that is a major blow to an NFL desperately in need of young stars. The Eagles losing MVP candidate Carson Wentz alters the landscape of the NFC and once again proves there is no greater opponent during an NFL season than attrition.

The pundits spend all offseason making projections and rankings, and then it all goes out the window as star player after star player go down to season-ending injuries. The Patriots have had it just as bad as anyone, but because they haven’t missed a beat in the win column no one really ever gives them credit. It’s not a new thing, plugging undrafted rookies like Randall Gay in when starters like Ty Law are lost has been happing for over a decade.

But for whatever reason it just seems even worse this year, across the league. Maybe it’s the turf. Maybe it’s the size and speed of the players finally reaching a literal breaking point. For a league that really needs to find their next generation of stars, there does’t really seem to be any way to curb the tide, especially for ACLs.

Yesterday was a stiff reminder how even an MVP-worthy season can be ended in an instant. No one is safe and as the Pats take the field in Miami tonight, I’ll have Suh-Kiko-induced heart palpitations.

Couple notes on where the Pats are now standing…

— The Steelers stole another one last night, making for their third-straight win of three points or less. What scares me about this is that it’s very similar to the 2015 Broncos who just seemed to pull game after game out of their asses despite an inept offense. Pittsburgh’s offense is far from inept, but their defense, one which Tom Brady usually tears apart even when they’re good, has struggled.

As much as I can’t look past tonight’s game in Miami, I can’t help but wonder if the Pats-Broncos narrative of 2015 could play out again. I truly felt the Patriots were better than the 2015 Broncos, but for whatever reason, things just seemed to unfold perfectly in their favor in the two meetings that season. That was a theme for the Broncos that entire season, and maybe this is the year the Steelers have a steel horse shoe up their asses.

Every time NE-PIT play, I expect the Steeler defense to finally have Brady’s number like the Broncos did in 2015. And every time he has his way with them. We’ll worry about the Steelers the moment tonight’s game is over.

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Can Rivers or Roethlisberger Finally Knock Off Brady Just Once in Playoffs?

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Philip Rivers and Ben Roethsliberger were both drafted in 2004 and both have gone on to Hall of Fame-worthy careers. But they’re a combined 2-14 against Tom Brady in their respected careers. With the Chargers surging and the Steelers atop the AFC it looks like Brady is on a collision course with one or maybe both of these veteran quarterbacks.

Whether or not Rivers or Roethelisberger can finally knock off Brady should be the defining story of the AFC playoffs. And it might be now or never for both.

Let’s take a closer look at how these two great quarterbacks have fared against the Patriots, and, perhaps more importantly, how Tom Brady has fared against their teams.

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Is Patriots’ Run Defense a Fatal Flaw? — Season Film Review

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While the Patriots defense has been trending up the last few games, I was surprised to see they had fallen from a mid-season 23rd-ranked run defense to 30th in Football Outsider’s DVOA, an analytic that weighs situation and opponent. This is of course about when Dont’a Hightower went on IR, so some drop-off should be expected but it hadn’t been all that glaring to me recently.

If they do have a bad run defense it hasn’t hurt them in the win column. Last week against the Bills they gave up their second-highest yardage total this season (183) and held them to three points. Opening night against the Chiefs (185) remains the highest and only time a team actually ran to victory over New England.

Yardage wise they’re 26th, yards-per-carry they’re 32nd.

So is this a real flaw for the Pats’ defense? Will LeVeon Bell be able to exploit it? Could the Steelers ride that to victory? Miami got a season-low 67 yards on the ground vs. New England and doesn’t look like they’ll do much more this Monday night.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the bigger running plays against and how much impact they had on the game.

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Patriots-Steelers AFCCG Film Review: Defense Edition

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The All-22 came out early this week, quickly squashing my dilemma of reviewing the AFC Championship or moving on to start getting familiar with the Falcons. Overall, this was everything we’ve come to expect this season out of the Patriots defense. They bent at times, but it was near impossible to break them.

The two goal-line stands were key moments in the game and really two sequences where the Patriots defense can hang their hat. They were consistently physical at the point of attack and even when they made mistakes, those mistakes were quickly tackled and the defense was refocused entirely on the next play.

Here’s some thoughts on what else stood out from the defense in the AFC Championship…

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Pats Posits: Year of the GOAT

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The Patriots are headed to their NFL-record ninth Super Bowl after capturing their seventh AFC Championship by handily defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 36-17. It was a signature Tom Brady win, as he set the franchise playoff yardage record (384 yards, three TDs, 0 INTs) in his NFL-record 24th playoff victory.

Chris Hogan had the game of his life with nine catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns while battling through a thigh injury. Julian Edelman was reliable as ever with eight catches for 118 yards, keeping the chains moving at critical moments like he always does.

After I spent all week pumping the Pats’ diversity and depth on offense, they instead put on a surgical dissection of the Steelers’ defense leaning heavily on just Hogan and Edelman.

The running game that had been a consistent staple all season was largely missing until the very end. They had just 57 yards rushing. But it was all they needed as Brady picked apart the Steelers’ secondary like we’ve become used to seeing.

The turning point in the game came on the second play when Le’Veon Bell tweaked his groin and was done for the day. The Steelers lost the catalyst of their playoff run and once they fell behind on then scoreboard it was an impossible uphill climb.

The Patriots defense, facing questions about their level of competition all season, stepped up with a gem. Shutting down the run (54 yards allowed) was the first key. Stopping Antonio Brown was the second (seven catches, 77 yards). Two crucial goal-line defensive stands and two takeaways showed how good the underrated Pats’ defense really is.

All in all this was their best performance of the season, especially given the stage. And now, they’re on to Super Bowl 51 to face a Falcons team that is on fire. It’s hard to believe it sometimes, but the Patriots’ dynasty is still very much alive and well, and almost old enough for a driver’s license.

More on the Steelers, Falcons and legacy in the Posits…

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