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Thursday Pats Stat Pack

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Now that we’re a quarter of the way into the season I feel comfortable diving into some of Football Outsiders’ DVOA stats and the early numbers for the Pats are pretty outstanding. 

Remember, these numbers are adjusted for the matchup and situation, so go easy on the “Pats haven’t played anyone good” outrage.

First we have our overall DVOA on both sides of the ball, where the offense is hitting a level that puts it on par with Brady’s MVP seasons of 2007 and 2010. Defensively, they’re better overall but a little worse against the run, though I’d say that’s party by design.

Here’s a closer look at how they’re matching up with various receiving threats:

The improvement against tight ends is what stands out most, while there a bit of drop replacing Revis with Butler, the rest is pretty much the same. And again, they’ve been better overall.

Finally comes what I call the “bend-don’t-break chart” where they’re looking far less bendy after last week’s performance against the Cowboys. We’ll see how that holds up.

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Patriots DVOA Rankings Since 2001

I’ve been saying this week that this is the best defense since the mid-2000s and Football Outsiders’ DVOA stats back that up. The running game is up from 31st to 24th this week after Jonas Grey’s 200-yard day. 

Perhaps the most amazing thing is that no matter who changes faces on offense they just keep on rolling in the passing game.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-dvoa-rankings-since-2001-ive-been/

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To put how unusual this is into context, take an average team that beats the spread by 17-plus points exactly 10 percent of the time. What is the chance that team would beat the spread by 17-plus points five (or more) times out of ten? 0.2 percent! So this is a case where a small sample size really does tell us something. Over the last decade, the Patriots have been completely on their own island in their propensity for following big losses with surprisingly strong wins. And it looks like more than randomness. Note that I am counting 2008, too. If we only include the Brady era, following big losses the Patriots have beaten the point spread by more than 17 points four out of seven times.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Any Given Sunday: Patriots over Bengals

https://www.patspropaganda.com/to-put-how-unusual-this-is-into-context-take-an/

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: 2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: 2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Well, believe it or not but the Patriots are the number one defense in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVOA metric. They have the best pass defense by far, while their rushing defense ranks just 18th.

The offense? 23rd overall, being 20th in both rushing and passing. This is just about a complete reversal of where things have been in recent seasons. I’m a defense guy so maybe I should enjoy it? The problem is I’m also a Brady guy and I’d really prefer he not get killed before the bye week.

Against specific receivers the Pats are:

vs. #1 WR: 6th
vs #2 WR: 3rd
vs. Other WR: 3rd
vs. TE: 14th
vs. RB: 4th

We’ll see how these numbers stack up once we hit the iron of the schedule which is coming quickly at us.

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On the season, the Patriots have run 19 of their 211 plays out of no-huddle (9 percent) and 67 snaps in shotgun (32 percent). By way of comparison, over the course of the 2013 regular season, the Patriots were in shotgun for 42 percent of their offensive snaps and they ran no-huddle on 11 percent of their snaps.

It Is What It Is » In Focus: Charting offensive opportunities for Patriots skill position players

Makes sense, move Brady into shotgun to help the protection and let everyone get on the same page before pushing the no huddle. And I still think 9 percent is almost too high when you look at those failed ‘run to the line, run the ball for a loss’ plays.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/on-the-season-the-patriots-have-run-19-of-their/

we normally don’t see the patriots blitz often if at all in games. with at least 3 corners that can play man should we expect a little more blitzing(not every play but more then we normally are accustomed to) this year

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It’s an interesting question that will be something to really monitor this season because BB has never had the quality of corners on paper that he has right now.

One thing about defense though is that you never want to have to blitz. You want to get pressure with four. Of course that’s easier said that done. And really, the mainstream definition of a blitz is sending more than four guys, but some would tell you a real blitz is only when defensive backs are getting sent, which we saw occasionally with Arrington and Ryan last season.

Belichick is and will likely always be a fairly conservative defensive coach and it’s hard to argue with the results. But now that his theoretically has multiple corners who can man-up receivers and take them out of the equation, does he start sending more blitzes? Certainly seems like there’s a good chance.

But if I was a betting man I’d bet his blitz rate remains nearly unchanged.

Here’s the percentages of blitzes from last season. While some of it is dependent on how the games unfolded, the Pats are unlikely to ever blitz more than 30% of the snaps.

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