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A Closer Look at Patriots’ Advanced Defensive Stats

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rob ninkovichStats are for losers, right? Far be it from me to disagree with BB, but stats can give us a bigger picture. I always wait until four gams into the season before I jump into the stats. Anything before that is just simply too small a sample size.

As most of you know, the Patriots defense has been my long term pet project here on the blog. When you line up the 2016 stats and compare them to recent years it becomes even more clear that while the Patriots defense is good at preventing points, they’ve been pretty terrible at everything else.

I know there are plenty out there banging the “points allowed are all that matter,” but I disagree. Football is a complimentary game. Points allowed is certainly an important stat and the one at the bottom line, but the rest of the stats paint the picture of a defense that isn’t forcing turnovers, isn’t getting off the field and allowing far too long opponent possessions. That isn’t holding up their end of the bargain with the offense and special teams.

That said, it’s four games in. With Tom Brady back we can expect far more out of the offense going forward. That should help the defense. But still, every time in the first four games the Patriots have needed the defense to step up, they have failed to do so.

Let’s hope that changes in the coming weeks.

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Tweets of Note: Patriots Training Camp Practice #12

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After Julian Edelman went down yesterday I went through a similar range of emotions as when Rob Gronkowski was writhing in pain on the field in Denver last season. You quickly run through all the stages of grief, accepting that Edelman was very possibly done for the year.

But then, just like Gronk, the news was actually better than expected. Then Edelman suddenly appeared at practice today, and though he wasn’t a full participant, it’s an incredibly good sign. Especially when I had already basically accepted I wouldn’t see him on a football field until the winter at the earliest, if not 2017.

The news wasn’t as great on Rob Ninkovich, but four-to-six weeks from early August is nothing. Just like the Jimmy Garoppolo experiment, Nink’s absence should ultimately be a good thing for the Patriots. They can develop Shea McClellin and Tre Flowers, while also giving looks to Geneo Grissom and Rufus Johnson.

Ninkovich is in the last year of his deal and is 32 years old. While I think he’ll return on a new deal next season, the end is coming, just like it is with Brady. Getting the chance to throw some young guys into the fire at this point will ultimately help the Pats in the long run.

Here are the tweets from Wednesday’s practice that stood out, and, oh yeah, THERE’S A GAME TOMORROW!!

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Report: Rob Ninkovich Tears Triceps, Won’t Need Surgery

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And here we thought we were losing Julian Edelman today. Nope, turns out it’s Rob Ninkovich that had the more significant injury, tearing his triceps according to Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com.

Ninkovich has been an ironman for the Patriots since signing with the team in mid-August of 2009. Since 2010 he’s played in every game and been a true stalwart in every sense of the word. Losing him for any length of time is a big blow, both off the field and on it. But with no surgery required, Ninkovich could be back as early as October which will give the Pats a chance to develop more depth at a critical position. 

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Tweets of Note: Patriots Training Camp Practice #11

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By now you’ve probably heard, Julian Edelman left practice on Tuesday after throwing his helmet down in frustration with an apparent injury. Trainers were looking at Edelman’s left foot, the same one that he broke last season. Edelman did walk to the locker room under his own power, a better sign than if he was carted off, but it appears he’s suffered a setback, though Ian Rapoport is reporting that it’s not serious (phew?)…

That wasn’t the only injury buzzkill on Tuesday, as Rob Ninkovich also left practice with trainers looking at his upper arm. Arms are usually less worrisome than feet when it comes to injuries, however Nate Solder was lost to IR last year due to a torn biceps.

So we hold our breath and wait to hear what the prognosis on both is. Unfortunately, since it’s training camp, we might not get any immediate answers. Edelman and Ninkovich will likely be missing from practice tomorrow and we’ll have to wait for sources to leak what’s going on before Bill Belichick will tell us anything.

Here are the tweets of note if you want to re-live the first shitty practice of training camp.

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Should the Patriots Trade Chandler Jones?

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It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.

Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:

Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.

Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.

Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.

Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.

Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.

Patriots In Control

The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.

With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.

There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.

I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.

But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.

For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.

 

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infinityandcyanide:

Best birthday gift I’ve ever had right here. (February 1, 2015)

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