pats

The final quarter of the 2015 season begins with the Patriots needing a win to get back on track against a team filled with their former coaches and players in Houston. We’ve seen former Patriot games in the past – Mangini with the Jets, Romeo Crennel with the Browns, Matt Cassel has popped up a couple times as well, along with Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons, but this is the most fascinating one yet. 

Obviously so much of what Bill O’Brien is trying to build with the Texans is influenced directly by Bill Belichick and O’Brien’s time in New England. That message is only reinforced by defensive coordinator RAC, linebackers coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator George Godsey. So in many ways, the Patriots are facing a slightly distorted mirror image of themselves with one major difference at the quarterback position.

Of all Brady’s former backups Hoyer has always been my favorite. Not that he’s the best, but I like the way he competes and I’ve been rooting for him to catch a break for a long time. So it sucks that we’re going to have to destroy him this week but that’s how it goes.

Beyond the similarities and connections, both of these teams really need this game. Houston is on the bubble for the playoffs, while the Patriots are on the bubble for a bye. Neither team has much margin for error left, so if you’re a fan of football this game should be interesting to watch on a number of levels.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats to break their two-game losing streak at the expense of some old friends.

Offensive Gameplan

When the Giants were looking at how to slow down the Patriots in Super Bowl 42 one game they studied was the Pats 34-17 win over Romeo Crennel’s Browns. Now that score doesn’t look like the Browns had Brady et al figured out, but Moss and Welker combined for just 7 catches for 65 yards. 

Obviously things are much different now, but it shows that Romeo Crennel has a good feel for what the Patriots like to do on offense. Has that changed now? Yes, but Crennel has plenty of pieces to give New England problems.

The biggest one is of course JJ Watt who will be playing despite a broken hand. The thought of Watt one-on-one against Marcus Cannon gives me the spins. But they’ll move Watt around as well, and really, any matchup along our offensive line, outside of maybe Vollmer, isn’t ideal. After seeing Fletcher Cox abuse Josh Kline and Shaq Mason especially last week, I’m not feeling great about taking Watt out of the game.

Then there’s old pal Vince Wilfork who must be looking forward to his own interior matchups against two rookies at guard, though I will say that Brian Stork is playing like a maniac right now and should hold up well against Wilfork.

Add in Jadaveon Clowney and the Pats have plenty to worry about with the Texans’ front. The ideal way to take them out of the game, especially if Gronk is out again, is the quick passing game.

That’s always the bread and butter, but the Pats have gotten away from it in recent weeks because guys like LaFell, Chandler and Martin just can’t get open as quickly as Edelman, Lewis and Gronk could.

Teams with dynamic run games have run well on the Texans this year – Buffalo put up 187 yards last week – but let’s not kid ourselves, we haven’t had a dynamic run game since Lewis went down. Blount showed signs of life last week, but the Pats ignored the run in the early third quarter and abandoned it entirely as the Eagles’ lead grew.

So as I see it, let’s finally commit to the James White spread offense with 11 personnel. Use Michael Williams as an extra blocker. LaFell on the outside, Martin and Amendola on the inside, and let Brady go to work with the quick passing game.

Defensive Gameplan

Two big things to watch in this one – whether Dont’a Hightower is back and whether Malcolm Butler gets DeAndre Hopkins.

If Hightower is back we can finally start building the defense back up for the playoffs. He and Collins are devastating together. They’re both good on their own of course, but having them both out there makes them both so much better. We might have to wait another week on Hightower though.

There’s no question, the Texans offense is Hopkins. He has 10 TDs and twice the targets, catches and yards of any other weapon on their roster. We talk about Belichick making teams play left-handed, well that means taking Hopkins out of the game. 

But my question is can Butler do it alone, or is Hopkins such a big part of the offense it’s worth putting Harmon over the top of him as well? Hoyer isn’t afraid to take shots to Hopkins and whether or not the Texans get any big plays out of them will define how successful they are on offense.

Another interesting matchup is Cecil Shorts in the slot. I’d assume Logan Ryan gets Nate Washington, but can the Pats continue using Patrick Chung in the slot corner role vs. Shorts? Justin Coleman could be back, or new signee Leonard Johnson could get thrown into the mix as well, but Shorts seems like he’d be a mismatch with Chung, who missed Wednesday practice with a foot injury (he was back Thursday).

Otherwise up front the Pats will do what they do. Malcolm Brown gets better each week and forms a solid interior with Alan Branch. Dominique Easley missed last week’s game but should be good to go this week. Would love to see him start making a consistent impact one of these games. He’s flashed at times, but was largely invisible against the Broncos when he was really needed.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Hopkins – This is probably a two-man job with Butler getting him in man coverage and Harmon going over the top. The drop off to Washington, and Shorts is that extreme, and with the way Logan Ryan is playing it’s really Shorts that could be the problem. We’re well-familiar with this result – the Pats take away the star receiver and then some nobody kills them. I don’t think Hoyer/Shorts have that game in them.

2. Help with Watt – Even with one bum hand, the Pats need to find Watt on every snap and make sure there are two guys to block him, especially when it’s Marcus Cannon on the edge. I’d basically make Michael Williams into Watt’s shadow, whether he has to be on the edges or even in the backfield. Watt cannot destroy this game.

3. Aggressive Defense – The Pats aren’t a very aggressive defense, at least in terms of sending blitzers, but I think this is the week to throw the sink at Hoyer. Of course it’s a lot easier if Hightower and Collins are out there, they’re devastating when it comes to the A-gap blitzes. Hoyer struggles most when he feels the pressure coming so forcing him to make the right read for the quick throws should force him into mistakes.

4. Brady Trust the New Guys – I saw quite a few instances of Brady ignoring Chandler or Martin when they were open last week. He needs to stop trying to force things and return to his old strategy of his favorite receiver being the open one. He has to stop forcing things to LaFell to try and get him on track. Lean on Martin and Amendola, and most especially, James White. This offense is best when the 3rd down back is heavily involved, so the more touches for White, the better.

5. Win – The down period for this season is over. It’s time now to start getting healthy and re-establishing our identity on offense and defense. The Texans are not pushovers and they should come out with a fearless gameplan with some unexpected twists that old Pats coaches always seem to break out. Most of all I just want to see a full 60 minute effort out of the 2015 Pats. It seems like they haven’t put one of those together in forever. Hopefully a two-game losing streak has captured everyone’s attention and with the playoffs approaching, now is the time to kick our best football into gear.

Prediction – Patriots 24, Texans 13

It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 13 and we’re on the verge of the last quarter of the 2016 season! Each week the playoffs get a little bit closer and hopefully the return of some of our key players who have been lost since the Week Four bye week.

This Patriots offense is now a shell of what it was in those first three weeks when they looked unstoppable. The NFL season is one of attrition and more often than not it’s the healthiest teams that make the biggest pushes to the Super Bowl. But the Pats keep grinding regardless of their personnel losses and this week figures to be maybe their biggest test yet without Rob Gronkowski.

The only silver lining is that there really isn’t anyone for defenses to key on anymore, and there’s no longer anyone for Brady to really lock in on either. The current shape of the team reminds me a lot of the 2001-2004 teams where there weren’t really any “elite” weapons, just guys who got open and made plays on offense, and a defense that was in its prime.

The Eagles season is hanging by a thread. Yes, they’re still within striking distance of the NFC East title, but they’ve lost three in a row and looked listless in their latest loss to the Lions, generating just 227 yards of offense. Meanwhile their defense has given up 951 total yards of offense the last two weeks.

Here’s the gameplan to dispatch the Eagles and get back on track as we hit the three-quarter point of the season…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite getting lit up the last two weeks, the Eagles defense is not as terrible as it would seem and with the Patriots depleted weaponry it’s not a stretch to think moving the ball will be tough for Tom Brady.

It would really help to get Danny Amendola back, and from the sound of it, there seems to be a good chance he’s back. That would leave him, Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler as the offensive core, with a sprinkling of Keshawn Martin. I think it’s just too soon to expect anything from newcomers Trey Williams (RB) or Damaris Johnson (WR).

The good news is that with Sebastian Vollmer moving to LT it seems like the offensive line is starting to settle in and that’s what it all starts with. If Brady feels comfortable it won’t really matter who he is throwing the ball to. Playing at home I expect the offensive line to really start looking good, but the Eagles’ pass rushers like Connor Barwin (who has always seemed like a perfect Patriots fit to me btw), Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are talented and can cause problems.

The bad news is losing Gronk really kills what the Pats can do, especially without his blocking. Chandler would seem to be the top fit, but he’s not the blocker Gronk is, so you can’t just slide him into the Y-TE spot and expect him to seal the edge or dominate his man like Gronk could in the running game.

And yes, it’s the running game that has been the biggest significant problem for the 2015 Patriots post-Dion Lewis. So now, if the Pats want to establish the run, they’ll like have to three tackles out there, or Michael Williams at TE if he is back in the lineup. So their intentions will be clear by their personnel and given the struggles with the run game even with Gronk, it’s unlikely it can be a run-heavy attack with Chandler in there.

So this all points me to the direction of leaning toward a spread approach, but again, it’s not like the wide receiver depth is great right now. But if you have Amendola and LaFell that’s a good start, but the real key will be Chandler because the tight end spot is so vital to keep the chains moving.

Perhaps we see James White get thrown into the fire, but at this point I’m no longer holding my breath and would love to at least see Trey Williams thrown into the fire ala Danny Woodhead in 2010 sooner rather than later.

There aren’t a ton of options and this will make the Patriots intentions clear from the start of the game. Still, if the OL protects Brady, they should be okay.

Defensive Gameplan

Dont’a Hightower has been at practice this week with his sprained MCL, wearing a brace, and signs are also pointing to Jamie Collins finally coming back as well this week. If those two guys are back in, we’ll finally have our defense back.

Collins is the gamechanger, not only for what he can do, but what he then allows Hightower to do. Collins is also a huge upgrade on Jonathan Freeny who’s been playing a ton in Collins’ absence. Freeny has been serviceable but is not a dynamic playmaker in any aspect of the game.

With their full complement of pass rushers, except for possibly Dominique Easley who has missed practice this week with an ankle injury, the Patriots should be able to attack the Eagles quarterback and force mistakes. Expect rookie Geneo Grissom to see some time as a third down pass rusher.

Due to the lack of depth at cornerback with Justin Coleman still out with a hand injury, it’s likely the Pats will match up on the Eagles’ wide outs. Butler on Jordan Matthews would make sense to avoid allowing him to matchup on Patrick Chung from the slot on third downs.

With their defense just about fully intact the Patriots should be well-prepared to counter the Eagles no huddle pace. As always, the biggest key is winning the one-on-one matchups up front. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should be ready to make some noise and it can only help by having Jamie Collins back behind them.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Force Feed Chandler – I’m not convinced Julian Edelman is going to just step back in and be the unstoppable playmaker he was before. Hence if this team is going to make a Super Bowl run they’ll need to develop another weapon to go with LaFell/Amendola, hopefully a fully good-to-go Gronk and whatever Edelman can bring with his foot still not 100% (assuming that he even does come back for the first playoff game). Chandler has to be that guy, and now with Gronk out, Brady and Chandler have no choice but to find some chemistry. They’ve shown flashes of it at times, but Chandler’s drops and the other targets have made it easy for Brady to look away from him. Chandler has the size and talent to be far better than he’s been. It’s now or never.

2. Witness the Power of a Fully Operational Defense – I know Hightower might not play and even if he does he might be a little hobbled, but if he does suit up along with Collins it will be the first time we’ve had them both out there in over a month. Yes, the Pats have plenty of talent, but the combo of Hightower and Collins is transformative and opens up the full bag of tricks the Patriots have on defense. Is this the week we see that peak defense? Maybe. But it’s coming and once they’re all back at full power we’ll see just how far they can take us.

3. Protect Brady – This should always be a key, but without Gronk or Edelman it’s especially true this week. If the offensive line has a bad game the Patriots could very well lose this game. Their run game has been anemic and it’s hard to argue they can suddenly be better this week. Maybe if the game unfolds just right they can get LeGarrette Blount going, but what we can’t expect is them to come out an “establish the run”. So it looks like a heavy throwing game for Brady, and without guys who can get open quick (outside of hopefully Amendola), Brady will need time. It’s up to the pass protection to give it to hime.

4. Find a Gem – Maybe this one is just wishful thinking but the offense really lacked playmakers against the Broncos, leaving the Pats to cobble together a competent performance from guys who can’t make defenders miss in space. I don’t know if Keshawn Martin or the new guys Trey Williams or Damaris Johnson are those kind of guys, but at this point there’s no reason not to throw them into the fire and see what they can do. Probably a long shot wtih Williams and Johnson since they haven’t even been in New England a week, but maybe if the Pats get a bit of a lead, it couldn’t hurt to get the ball in their hands and see if they can break a tackle or two.

5. Win – As always, it’s the most important thing and with a shrunken lead in the AFC the Pats need to get back on track with their 11th win of the season. But it won’t be easy, that’s for sure, especially with the Eagles needing a win to save their season. But if the Pats can put some points on the board early it’s possible the Eagles will roll over. The better thing for the Patriots overall might just be needing a sixty minute effort, something they didn’t turn in against the Broncos. As much as I’d like a stress-free blowout, winning a close contest might be a better building block toward a Super Bowl run. But honestly, just give me a game without a major injury. I’m praying Gronk’s survival last week will turn the tide.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 13

How quickly the dynamics of this game have changed. Instead of another Tom Brady
– Peyton Manning duel we’re getting a defensive battle that could see the over/under remain below 40.

Regardless of who is or isn’t playing, this is an important game in the AFC and if the Pats are without Danny Amendola
, they’re going to have to find a way to move the ball on a very stout defense that has all the pieces necessary to stop them.

But the Patriots’ defense are no slouches either and they should give Brock Osweiler plenty of problems in his second start, even if the Pats are still without Jamie Collins , as expected.

The Patriots have had their struggles in Denver, winning there just once (2011) since Tom Brady lost his first playoff game there in January of 2006.

What do the Pats need to do to get to 11-0 and put a tight grip on the top seed in the conference? Here’s my gameplan…

Offensive Gameplan

The entire offensive gameplan really hinges on Danny Amendola’s availability, and if he can’t go things are going to be a little scary against a defense with as much talent as we’ve faced.

But here’s the thing, in three games since 2007 Brady has thrown for 1028 yards, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against Wade Phillips (’07 HC Cowboys, ‘12 DC Texans (x 2)). And none of those teams were exactly pushovers. So it would seem Brady has a pretty good handle on Phillips’ scheme.

Replicating that kind of execution with Chris Harper as the primary chain mover might be a little tough and that illustrates the bigger problem – the Broncos man coverage. The hardest skill for a wide receiver is beating man coverage before the pass rush gets to the quarterback. Can the Pats’ receivers defeat Talib/Harris? They’re gonna need Amendola.

My gameplan offensively is simple and the big piece is giving James White a chance to start. Don’t run Blount into the teeth of the defense right out of the gate. Spread them out and try to establish the quick man-beating passing game. Don’t completely ignore the run, but let White run some screens and draws before moving to any power game with Blount.

Someone will have to step up this week with or without Amendola. White, Brandon Bolden, Aaron Dobson and LaFell all came through in key spots against the Bills (and Harper would’ve too if not for a Cannon penalty). They’ll need more of those plays from the secondary weapons. If Scott Chandler’s ever going to have a big game, now might be the time.

But really it all feeds into the offensive line. They should be better this week. Phillips won’t run the same kind of deception Rex did (though he would if he was smart), so they should have an easier time picking up the pass rushers. Still, those are some good pass rushers, even without Demarcus Ware, but this week it will be more physical than mental and usually the Pats offensive line are good in games like that.

Defensive Gamplan

It was fun watching a great cornerback like Darrelle Revis last year and Brandon Browner brought great physicality, but this is a better defense this year and I enjoy watching them far more now.

It goes back to the early and mid-2000′s when we knew the Patriots had the baddest defense on the block. On every big moment in the game you just knew someone would come through with a play and more often than not they did.

Now it’s starting to feel the same way. It’s not all about Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. There’s so much talent and depth, and with the rotation they’re able to keep guys fresh. Dominique Easley, Jabaal Sheard and Malcom Brown are causing chaos up front and it’s been so long since the Patriots have had that.

Now Brock Osweiler plays directly into what the Patriots defense does best – get after the quarterback. No longer does Bill Belichick have to rely on disguising coverage as much against a young quarterback. Now he can show it’s man defense and simply challenge the quarterback to get through his reads to find who can get open before the pass rush gets to him. This isn’t easy against the Pats’ front four now.

There’s no question the Broncos have playmakers who can beat man coverage, so the Pats will likely live or die on their pass rush in this one. But they don’t have to worry as much about containing Osweiler, they can just attack. I like that formula.

Though Malcolm Butler covered Emmanuel Sanders last year and did it well, I think he likely goes to Demaryius Thomas now, with Logan Ryan on Sanders (assuming he plays after sitting out last week).

Otherwise, I like the Patriots’ chances of shutting down the run and putting the game in Osweiler’s hands. The Pats are as stout against the run as I can ever remember, and unless they have their first bad game since September, they should give Brady and the offense a chance to win the game no matter how few points they put up.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. WRs Win Quick: Best way to attack man coverage and minimize the impact of your pass protection? Get the ball out quick with your wide receivers winning off the line of scrimmage. This is easier said than done, especially against perhaps the best secondary in the NFL. But sitting back on long-developing routes, forcing the pass protection to stop the Denver front for extended time, is not the route to victory in this one.

2. Unleash James White: White hasn’t been asked to do much in two games since Dion Lewis went down, but has done well and come through in some big spots in a limited role. Now why not just throw him into the fire? Start the game with him. See what he can do in a bigger role. He has to be confident coming off two touchdowns against the Bills.  Now is the time to start making him a bigger part of the offense, a part they’re really going to need in January.

3. Unleash the Pass Rush: Just what exactly is the ceiling of this Patriots pass rush with everyone healthy and clicking? We still haven’t seen it and won’t until Jamie Collins is back, but they looked like a really solid NFL defense in recent weeks. I truly believe the defense can (and will likely have to) win this game for the Patriots, even more so than last week against the Bills. Attack Osweiler. Force mistakes. Don’t let them have the time for the deep throws to Thomas and Sanders. That’s the formula. Once they get Collins back, look out. 

4. Win First Down: So many of the Patriots offensive struggles against the Bills were because they struggled on first down and usually ended up in third-and-longs. This week they must find a way to consistently get five yards on first down instead of two. Staying on time with the offense will keep Denver from their comfort zone with long yardage third downs.

5. Win: Yes, the Pats could clinch their division this week, but there’s still a lot to work out before the playoff run. What matters most is getting the top seed and a win in Denver would be a huge tie breaker to hold. They very well might have to play this team again, and perhaps next time they’ll have some version of Peyton Manning. It’s far better to know a potential playoff game would be in Foxboro.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Broncos 14