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Pats Posits: We Escape Rex Once Again

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I know it’s fun to crap on Rex Ryan but once again he showed why he’s the only coach who has consistently given Tom Brady
a tough time. He always seems to fall just short in the end, but he knows how to slow down New England’s offense. It also helps when Julian Edelman’s not there.

I’d just like to go one week with an important piece limping to the sideline or getting checked out on the bench. 

Now we’re at double digit wins without a loss. In 2007, I was so intrigued by 16-0 because it really looked like no one could stop the Pats until early December, and the only siginificant injury loss was Rosevelt Colvin
.

Imagine that team without Welker, Faulk, Light and Bruschi. 

So this time around at 10-0 I’m just hoping we can lock up the top seed asap and get healthy in the right spots at the right time. But make no mistake, these final six games will be a total grind, every single one of them.

Let us dive into a very Thanksgiving-y Posits…

Defense Wins Championships

This was the most comfortable seven-point final-drive lead I’ve experienced since the mid-2000′s. If this was 2010-2013 Patriots defense we were going to overtime. 

Say what you will about the injuries this year, but what we’ve still got is Tom Brady and a pass-rushing, run-stopping defense. Those are the two biggest ingredients for a Super Bowl winning team. 

The defense held the Bills to 3-of-15 on third down. Five three-and-outs. Seven punts. Under 100 yards rushing for the fifth-straight weeks. Don’t look now people but we have a defense.

Brady Toughing It Out

The protection was terrible at times, with the line (and Brady) were confused about who was coming or going. As Jon Gruden pointed out in his only correct statement of the night, the Bills played a lot of zone and were spinning the dial as hard as Rex could spin it. Edelman out. Amendola down. Brady just hung in there and willed the team to win. 

LaFell Down the Depth Chart?

Strange to see LaFell not starting and only getting significant reps once Dobson and Amendola both went down. Something strange there and I’d bet there’s some digging by the beat crew. I don’t want to speculate but either his foot (or something else) isn’t right or it’s disciplinary. Can’t imagine any world where Dobson (who was suddenly on the injury report Monday morning with a back injury before leaving the game not being able to walk on his ankle) is suddenly ahead of LaFell on the game day depth chart. We’ll see, but obviously we need him more than ever if Amendola’s out for any length of time.

Wilson at Linebacker

Curious to see in film review how the Pats used Tavon Wilson, who suddenly appeared after being MIA through nine games. My guess is that Chung took over the slot spot over Melvin (smart), so the trickle down was who played the box safety spot (which has been essentially a linebacker role). He flashed in a couple different instances, reminding me that if Chung was just a better fit in this spot, maybe Wilson might be too. Something to monitor because he’s got a little more size and thump than Chung. The Cardinals have been using safety Deon Bucanon at a linebacker spot with great success. This is where the game is headed.

Mayo at OLB

I’ve been critical of Mayo but I thought this was his best game of the season. Not that he played a ton, but he finally made an impact on the game with some big stops. They shifted him to outside linebacker it appeared at times. Something to take a closer look at. But Mayo made plays and that bodes well coming down the stretch with Collins poised to come back.

Blount can’t get going

I always liked Blount with someone like Ridley in front of him. Even Dion Lewis seemed to soften up defenses just enough for him. But this just playing him as the lead back style has not looked good. Unfortunately there’s not another option really. Hopefully he shows he can get going in Denver, but remember in 2013 when Blount ran roughshod over the Colts and then did zippo in the AFC Championship in Denver? I hope this doesn’t make us one dimensional because teams can go with light (pass-stopping) boxes.

Free James White

The feel good takeaway from this one (besides the defense) has to be James White’s two touchdowns. Again, White wasn’t a huge part of the gameplan, but he came through in a couple spots. He’s not electric like Dion Lewis, but he can make defenders miss. That’s more than I can say for Bolden. Hopefully White continues to see more touches as he and the coaching staff gain confidence. 

Hello Chris Harper

It’s a shame Harper’s first catch had to be negated by a Marcus Cannon penalty. It was a spectacular play, while Harper also did job fighting (though losing) for the ball on the gross Brady interception.  Now if Amendola is out he’s going to have a monumental opportunity to step into a role that many seem to think is “plug-and-play”.

Little Things

What’s the difference between the Patriots and the other 31 teams? It was on display last night, as it usually is against Rex Ryan. They are simply all on then same page. They are sound in all facets and they will not beat themselves. The faces have changed over the years but that’s the Belichick aspect that has not. Everybody knows the situation and exactly what to do. The line is thin between winning and losing, but the Patriots are consistently so solid and clean with their football it almost always puts them on top. That’s really what it comes down to.

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Have to give a tip of the cap to the defensive line and linebackers. Easley, Brown, Branch, Hightower, Nink and Chandler right down the line played fast and aggressive. It was fun to watch and something I feel like I’ve been waiting a decade for again.

Malcolm Butler

Butler took Sammy Watkins out of the game, just like he took Odell Beckham out of the last game. It’s clear that Bill Belichick was keeping the best cornerback on the roster last year, and at 1/32nd the cost of Darrelle Revis. 

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We didn’t even know how good of a left tackle Marcus Cannon was while we were all waiting for him to get over his supposedly minor toe injury. Well he didn’t look too good there last night, with multiple penalties and blown blocks. Honestly Cameron Fleming looked better there than Canon did. Maybe he was just “rusty”, or maybe it’s time to look at Fleming (or Vollmer) at LT. 

Brady- Manning Osweiler

Now that next Sunday’s game isn’t a Brady – Manning one, it’s taken a different gleam. I like our defense over their offense, but this will be Brady’s hardest test of whatever meaningful regular season games are left. If we roll into Denver with Harper and LaFell starting we could struggle to move the ball. Badly. But we know what kind of fight this team has so it should be a battle.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills

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It’s been just two months since the Patriots last saw the Bills and put 500 yards up on them, but now the Patriots are a different team, especially on offense, and must find new avenues to deal with Rex Ryan.

The good news is that Sebastian Vollmer
, Marcus Cannon
and Tre Jackson all returned to practice this week, meaning the Pats could have a healthy offensive line for the first time since losing Nate Solder in Week 5. Since Solder went down it’s been a tackle apocalypse and we certainly don’t want to keep rolling out the makeshift offensive line against a defensive front like Buffalo’s.

The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season over the Jets and have won two-straight. They’re currently 3-1 in the division and very much in the thick of the wild card hunt, so this will be a confident team that should play loose.

Here’s the gameplan to put them down in front of a national audience.

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Offensive Gameplan

Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis accounted for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills in the first game and now the Pats have to figure out a way to replace that production. The biggest issue is that when you look back over the years at how the offense has faired against Rex Ryan’s defenses, it’s the shifty receivers, tight ends and running backs doing most of the damage in the passing game.

Outside receivers like Randy Moss, Brandon LaFell and even Aaron Dobson are just complimentary pieces in these gameplans usually. What gets it done against Rex’s scheme are the quick man-beaters and I wonder how the Pats can adjust without their most reliable man-beater.

The Bills will likely overcommit to take Gronkowski out of the game. Which means LaFell, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin will have to step up and play bigger roles.

By the same token, the Pats must find some passing production with their running backs. They didn’t do much with James White or Brandon Bolden against the Giants, but this gameplan is going to require them to be involved. The Bills are 32nd in the NFL covering running backs by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They must be attacked there.

The Pats ran the ball just 15 times in Week 2, a sign of respect for the Bills’ defense, but with reduced passing weapons will they be forced to feed LeGarrette Blount a bit more? Blount was just coming off his one week suspension in Week 2, and that could’ve been a factor as well.

Still, this is Rex Ryan and we know how he will attack Brady and it’s often effective. Their corners Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore are playing very well right now, and you have to wonder if one of them sees significant time on Gronk, likely Gilmore.

There’s no question LaFell and Amendola are the big keys if the Bills are actually able to take Gronk away. But the two guys I’m more interested in are Dobson/Martin and Scott Chandler. Dobson intrigues me with his size, but no one knows for sure if he or Martin is higher on the depth chart at the moment.

Yes, the Pats lose a significant player without Edelman, but what they’ll be forced to evolve to is a bigger lineup. This could be the game we’ve all been waiting for from Chandler. 

But even if it’s not him, someone is going to have to step up and play a bigger role, especially on third down. If I was Rex I would double Amendola and Gronk on third downs and force Brady to go anywhere else.

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Defensive Gameplan

The Bills moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive in Week 2 with the Pats playing their usual Cover-1 Man defense, but then the Pats shifted to a Cover-3 for most of the rest of the game and it shut the Bills down until they started letting Tyrod Taylorout of the pocket.

Yes, the BIlls had three touchdown drives with some explosive plays to make the game appear closer than it was. Still, those plays are concerning and should give the Bills more confidence coming into this one than they might’ve had if the Pats kept the throttle down when they were up 37-13.

The Patriots do prefer man defense, so it will be interesting to see if they start out immediately with the Cover-3 coverage that was successful for them. With mobile quarterbacks it’s often better to be in zone anyway since all the coverage defenders aren’t totally consumed with their receiver, allowing the quarterback to make a break for it when he sees an opening.

For that same reason expect a steady and disciplined pass rush designed to keep Taylor in the pocket with one spy dropping off the rush and mirroring him.

But the biggest aspect of the Bills is their run game, ranked #1 by Football Outsiders DVOA and 2nd overall in rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ run defense has been outstanding in recent weeks after being a big question mark early in the season and are currently ranked #1 in rushing yards allowed but only 12th in DVOA. This is likely where the game is won or lost and will definitely prove whether or not the Patriots’ run defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL.

Shut down McCoy and Williams, and force Taylor to beat you from the pocket on long third downs. That’s the recipe for success.

One other interesting area is the Bills are just behind the Pats, ranking 6th in turnover differential. The Patriots often rely on turnovers and if the Bills play as safe with the ball as they have been in recent weeks they might hang around until the end.

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Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Easily a cliche that could be used every week, but this week it’s an essential key given the run game is the lifeblood of the Bills offense. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch have been outstanding in recent weeks, as have the other rotational DTs. This week we’ll see just how good they really are.

2. Brady-to-Chandler: With Gronk likely doubled and Amendola likely to be locked in a tough matchup with Darby, the Pats must find another reliable option to carry them to January. Scott Chandler has been just a bit out of sync with Brady so far, hitting a few good plays, but also missing some. Chandler could be the forgotten man in Buffalo’s gameplan, opening the door for a breakout game against his former team.

3. Jame White, Now is the Time: For similar reasons to the matchups above, and the Bills’ struggles to cover running backs in the passing game, this is a good time to see what we have with James White. He was solid in a limited role against the Giants, but I’d love to see him get thrown into the fire against the Bills. He might very well make some noise.

4. Disciplined Rush: If they’re stopping the run, the next step is to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and few teams have the kind of discipline to do so like the Patriots do. The Pats shut down Taylor last time until he started getting out of the pocket and making plays downfield. Containing him is vital.

5. Win: Always the fifth key because it’s all that matters, a win here would essentially seal the AFC East title and it’s not even December yet. But most important is finding out how the offense will evolve now without Edelman. They need another threat to step up to stress the defense. Whether it’s White, Chandler, Dobson or Martin who will have Brady’s trust? Then, when Edelman gets back for the playoffs, the Pats will be even deeper and more difficult to stop.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 9

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Caption Contest for Tickets to the Patriots – Bills Monday Night Football clash!

I’ve got another pair of tickets to give away this week courtesy of @NRGEnergy and their #FanEnergy promotion. The rules are simple. Send me your best Rex/Tom captions, I’ll pick a few favorites and everyone can vote for theirs. 

Tweet and tag @patspropaganda​, @nrgenergy and #FanEnergy. Finalists announced tonight at 9pm EST, voting closes Wednesday 9pm EST.

Good luck to all!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/caption-contest-for-tickets-to-the-patriots/

Patriots-Jets Frenemy Ticket Giveaway!!

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Very excited to have a couple tickets to give away to this weekend’s game between the Patriots and Jets, courtesy of NRG! Now we’ve done plenty of ticket giveaways before but this one is a little different because it’s for a Patriots fan AND a Jets fan! 

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Yes, what we’re looking for are a fan from each team who are friends and want to go together, aka Pats-Jets Frenemies! So what we need is a picture of you and your friend in Pats and Jets swag showing your #FanEnergy!

Rules:

1. Tweet a picture of you and your friend in your respective Patriots/Jets gear! The more the fun the better!! You love football, you just root for different teams!!

2. Make sure to tag me, @PatsPropaganda and use the hashtags #FanEnergy & #Patriots.

3. Finalists will be picked Tuesday at 8pm EST, at which time voting will open on PatsPropaganda.com to pick the winners.

4. Winners will be announced Wednesday at 8pm EST.

And this is just phase one of our Frenemy FanEnergy giveaway as two lucky Pats-Jets Frenemies at this weekend’s game are going to win tickets to the rematch in New York in December!! Details to come on that one.

Good luck to all the Pats-Jets fans out there!!

Patriots’ offensive success fueled by deft play, clever schemes

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Patriots’ offensive success fueled by deft play, clever schemes

Very fun read if you like how dominant the Patriots offense has been through the first four games. Dallas got the first part of the test right against them, but didn’t have enough of a second-half change-up to put the Pats back on their toes. Brady will figure out what you’re doing, you’ve got to have a third quarter gameplan that is unique. But I still think the primary principals are press man coverage while only rushing three (but consistently disguising which three). Take away the quick passing game, even if it means giving Brady more time in the pocket.

Pats Posits: Lil’ Bit of Adversity in Dallas

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It had pretty much been smooth sailing for the New England Patriots
through the first three games of their season. But in Dallas things weren’t quite as easy as they had been and the offense struggled for extended periods to protect Tom Brady
.

The quick throws weren’t there early on but the Patriots offense remained patient and eventually found spots to exploit Dallas’ defense. 

The Patriots’ defense looked every bit as dominant as you’d hope they’d look going against this depleted Cowboy offense. But you can never dismiss a great defensive performance in the NFL and that was what this was.

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There were plenty of times no-name QBs threw for lots of yards on the Patriots defenses of 2010-2012. This is a different defense, and one that is possibly better than last year’s because of their array of pass rush options. 

There were questions about the run defense coming into this one, but it’s clear the Pats can stop the run when they want to. All the edge players were strong and the inside tackles didn’t give up a lot of ground. 

Most exciting of all was seeing the Pats play some press man like they did last year. They’ve played plenty of man defense this year, but haven’t tried to be physical at the line of scrimmage. That changed against the Cowboys and never allowed Weeden to find a rhythm through the air.

Now the stage is set for a visit to the Colts on prime time next Sunday night (followed by my yearly Pats excursion to the Jets game). It will be a fun two weeks of football. But first, the Posits…

Dont’a Hightower and Nate Solder.
That’s all I really care about coming out of this one. Yes, we saw Brady take a beating and bounce back strong, but there hasn’t really been a significant injury in a while. Hightower looked in clear pain, and I can’t imagine something like a broken rub doesn’t take at least a couple weeks. Solder spoke to the media afterwards, so that’s a good sign. And really, Cannon wouldn’t be that bad.

No season is without adversity and this team has yet to really face any. On one hand you’re just waiting for something bad to happen, but sigh relief when no one gets carted off. Hopefully Hightower is back sooner than later and the health train can keep chugging.

A lot to like from the defense, who have really been sparked by Jabaal Sheard. He’s the finisher they’ve really needed to rotate in with Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Sheard gets used all over the place. All were strong on the edges and with their rushes.

Jamie Collins is on everyone’s next superstar list and he keeps living up to those expectations. He’s simply all over the place on defense, making plays at every level with raw athleticism, speed and length.

Hard not to love the Pats showing some aggressive press man coverage and actually doing okay with it. That will need further evaluation this week. Seemed like there might’ve been more McCourty closer to the LOS, and Jordan Richards got more playing time this week after a strong debut against the Jags.

Malcolm Butler seemed like he made Terrance Williams invisible. Now it’s Terrance Williams, but still.

Jerod Mayo is likely about to be thrown into the fire and I’m not sure he’s ready for it. As soon as Bostic is ready to go, it should make for an interesting situation. Healthy Mayo is still better than Jonathan Freeny, but not by much.

Need to dive into the numbers this week, but I have some concerns about the short yardage game on both sides of the ball. 

Wasn’t a big Easley game but I saw him blow up a run pretty well. Curious the snaps on him and the rest.

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Dion Lewis
, I’m running out of things to say. What an electric, exciting player and he just keeps blowing minds and breaking ankles! Brady targeted him 11 times, more than Gronk and Edelman combined. Every time you think he’s about to go down he gets three more yards.

I’m okay with continuing the OL rotation going a bit longer, it’s why they’ll be fine has to miss time. Cannon catches a lot of crap but when he’s had to step in and start he’s been fine. It’s the experimenting at guard and the quick rotation in at tackle when he plays poorly. 

That’s a good Cowboys front and they had a good gameplan. All the tackles were beat, but it’s the inside I’m more curious to focus on. The OL will be fine.

Edelman had a couple brain farts and a couple clutch plays. Bit of a trend this season, but he’ll clean it up. Brandon LaFell will come back at a good time as neither Keshawn Martin nor Aaron Dobson can replicate his presence.

Yes, I turned the page to the Colts pretty quick. The North East Remembers.