People are probably sick of me harping on the Patriots third down defense but today I give some historical perspective and show it’s not unprecedented for a team that stinks on third down to win the Super Bowl.
To give some starting context the range of third down percentages generally run from 30% (really good) to about 50% (really bad). Of course the numbers some times skew outside that range but in the big picture sense 90% of the NFL defenses will fall in that range in any given season.
Here are the Patriots third down percentages through the last decade:
- 2001 – 37% (15th)
- 2002 – 43% (26th)
- 2003 – 34% (7th)
- 2004 – 39% (21st)
- 2005 – 42% (29th)
- 2006 – 26% (8th)
- 2007 – 34% (4th)
- 2008 – 44% (26th)
- 2009 – 37% (12th)
- 2010 – 51% (32nd) (thru 11 games)
To put 2010’s number in even more perspective, the 31st ranked team (Buffalo) is ahead by 6 full points points (45%). Take 6 percentage points off the Bills’ score and they’d be ranked 18th! The Pats are 32nd by a mile.
In the years the Patriots have gone to the AFC Championship game they were 4th, 7th, 8th, 15th and 21st. So it does seem like a good third down defense does correspond somewhat to a Super Bowl contender.
But the Patriots are at the dead bottom right now. And there isn’t necessarily evidence that it’s getting better if you look at the Patriots performance on third downs over the course of the season. It has been consistently inconsistent.
The difference has been key interceptions at key times. Getting turnovers is always nice, but sometimes just forcing an incomplete pass is pretty good too.
Interestingly enough there was a team that won a Super Bowl recently with the lowest ranked third down defense in the NFL. The Colts won a Lombardi Trophy (Peyton Manning’s only one, btw) in 2006 getting off the field just 47% of the time on third down.
So it’s not unprecedented, but for New England to make noise in the playoffs they must continue to force timely turnovers and on the biggest stages when it’s all on the line. Do the Patriots have the playmakers who can make those championship caliber plays?
We’ll know a lot more after Monday night.
Dial something up, Matty P.