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Preliminary Patriots draft notes and thoughts on “value drafting”

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We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.

This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.

What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.

This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.

A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.

Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.

This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.

In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.

My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.

So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.

There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.

Notes on Needs

X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have "The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.

Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.

Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.

DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.

OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.

25 Patriots thoughts to kick off the off-season

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We’ve shifted fully into off-season mode here at the Ministry of PatsPropaganda, and we’ve begun with thinking long and hard about the current Patriots personnel and where the biggest areas of need really are.

As evidenced in Michael Holley’s War Room the Patriots evaluate their off-season acquisitions specifically against the current Patriots roster and we try to do the same thing here.

Here are some general thoughts as we get going on our Free Agency and Draft research, specific to the Patriots.

  1. In the great debate of 4-3 or 3-4 I expect that the Patriots will try to round out their personnel to fit the 3-4 a little better. That doesn’t mean we’ve necessarily seen the end of the 4-3, but I expect that the Pats will go back to depending on the 3-4 against heavy run teams as they’ve done in the past.
  2. Therefore my early feeling is that the defensive line, especially a potential 3-4 defensive end,  should be priority number one. But I think defensive line in general is the area that needs the biggest talent infusion.
  3. Moving back to the 3-4 should give Jermaine Cunningham and Ron Brace a chance to contribute more.
  4. The status of the Pats best interior line rushers Mike Wright and Myron Pryor will be something to monitor. The Pats have gone two seasons without much interior rush at all.
  5. Sadly, I think Mike Wright’s career could be done. Back to back season ending concussions is nothing to mess with.
  6. I am not sure I agree with those saying CB is a major need. Say what you will about Ras-I Dowling and his injury bug but he started the first two games of his career with limited training camp. It’s a fact that the Patriots like what they see in him.
  7. I see the Pats willing to go into 2012 with a McCourty-Dowling tandem on the outside, with Kyle Arrington at star.
  8. I expect McCourty to at least have the chance to bounce back. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. But I think he has a good chance to get back to where he was as a rookie.
  9. Sterling Moore should provide good depth giving the Pats a solid tandem of young corners who can develop. Adding another veteran/rookie corner will be necessary, but not as an expensive Free Agent or first rounder. Preferably a physical slot corner.
  10. Safety is an area where I think we need a “Throw it all at the wall approach”. Unfortunately there are no primetime free agent or draftable safeties so there needs to be competition to bring out the best in everyone they bring in. 
  11. I expect they try to at least replace Sergio Brown with a rookie safety who could project to start long term while playing special teams immediately. Not sure there’s anything long term to be excited about with Sergio.
  12. The key to finding a safety to play next to Chung? Someone who excels in coverage and has a nose for the ball. Barrett or Ihedigbo can be the situational box safety, but stabilizing the back end is the biggest issue facing the safety group.
  13. Assuming Guyton is gone, I like the Mayo-Spikes-Fletcher core of the inside linebackers. Bring back Tracy White too. Maybe even Niko too.
  14. Markell Carter is the real wild card for how big of a need outside linebacker is. Ninkovich has cemented his spot. Mark Anderson should be a priority signing on the other side. They should add another body to the mix, but Carter will affect if it’s a prime free agent/high draft pick, or another developmental guy.
  15. Either way I think they won’t hesitate to grab a prime OLB high in the draft if they like him. But they’re very very picky when it comes to those guys so I won’t hold my breath.
  16. Will Brian Waters retire and can Marcus Cannon play guard are two of my biggest questions when it comes to the offensive line.
  17. I expect both Koppen and Connolly to be back.
  18. I also expect an interior lineman to be drafted higher than anyone expects. The middle of the pocket needs long term reinforcements.
  19. Rich Orhnberger is the most hilarious Patriot on Twitter, but I’m not sure how he fits into the long term plan.
  20. Though the odds are slim, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Chad Ochocinco reduces his salary and returns. 
  21. But Brandon Lloyd is proven in the system so he’s probably the better choice.  I just don’t know if everything can come together for them to sign him. Regardless the Patriots need an X receiver and that should be the biggest offensive priority this off-season. 
  22. Randy Moss isn’t coming back. Love what he did in his time here, but they’ve turned the page and as much as he might be able to run down the field pretty fast still, he’s a one trick pony at this point and one trick ponies don’t have a home in Foxboro.
  23. I’d be surprised if they don’t re-sign the Law Firm. He might not be flashy but he’s reliable. Shane Vereen is a real wild card. I think a lot of people are forgetting how much speed and skill he has.
  24. Deion Branch comes back on a 2-year, low cost deal. Good insurance and leadership ala Kevin Faulk this year and Troy Brown in 2006/2007. But I expect the Pats to make every effort to replace him on the depth chart.
  25. Praying they’re able to lock Welker up with a three year deal. An off-season without a contentious negotiation would be fabulous.

Patriots offense needs an X factor

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Let me begin by saying the Patriots offense was again at the top of the league in 2011. Despite the Super Bowl shortcomings, I still believe in Tom Brady and the overall philosophy of what the Patriots do. However that does not mean that there aren’t ways they can improve, and perhaps that biggest area is acquiring a true “X” receiver.

Notice I did not say “deep threat”. A deep threat is a characteristic of a player, not a position. This is why people were so confused when Chad Ochocinco was signed last off-season because he’s not a deep threat. He has, or had, the speed to get deep, but ultimately Chad was brought in because he was a true X receiver, something that the Patriots lacked in 2010 and felt they had to address.

An X receiver is one who plays on the line of scrimmage. He does not have the small cushion of the Z receiver who plays off the line of scrimmage, so he has to be able to beat press coverage quickly and get into his route. Usually the X is your traditional star wide receiver.

But an X receiver is much more than just a deep threat. And if you think the Bill Belichick would ever bring a player in for the sole purpose of just running endless go routes you haven’t been paying attention. (By the way that’s what Randy Moss had become in 2010 and a large part in why he was jettisoned and won’t return.)

The book is out on how to beat the 2010/2011 Patriots offense: Flood the middle of the field, get up on the receivers and don’t allow YAC. This forces the Patriots offense to become adept at pinpoint execution on multiple  consecutive plays. Notably this is pretty much the philosophy of the bend-don’t-break defense. Is it ironic that what BB tries to do with his defense is exactly what gives his offense fits?

Often times, like we saw on those consecutive completion record-setting two drives in the Super Bowl, they will execute flawlessly and methodically move down the field 5-15 yards at a time. But in critical moments, especially if they need a quick score, this style of offense can be unproductive.

A true X receiver, in conjuncture with Gronk, Hernando and Welker, would elevate this offense to the next level. Brady is never going to be a bombs away quarterback, but simply having the threat of an explosive outside receiver who can beat jams and quickly get open would be a game-changer.

Deion Branch was once a pretty solid X-receiver and the Patriots offense has never been better than when he was. Now that Branch has begun to slow down he just isn’t the same threat he once was and thus doesn’t require the same attention from defenses.

Of course the hard thing is actually showing the rest of the NFL that the new X is a threat. Brady tried with Ochocinco, but it was pretty clear there wasn’t a reason to fear them.

Had Ochocinco ever developed a rapport with Tom Brady it likely could’ve made a big difference in Indianapolis. Of course, that’s speculative, but it’s clear that the Patriots understood the need for an X last off-season and their efforts to fill that need just didn’t pan out. Look for them to make a concerted effort to replace Branch this off-season.

You can simply say the Patriots need a “deep threat” but that’s really underselling what they need. They need to challenge defense not only deep, but outside the hashmarks. That’s simple geometry. And in the process you open things up even more for your vaunted tight ends and slot receivers.

There’s little doubt the Patriots offense will still be productive even if they do not develop an outside receiver in 2012, though it’s also likely they’ll be slowed down considerably against good defenses with the proper personnel.

But with a true X the Patriots offense will become far less reliant on consistently flawless execution and more able to attack every square inch of enemy territory.

When they can do that, watch out.