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Schlereth: The Patriots Can’t Play Smashmouth

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Here’s Mark Schlereth’s take on the Pats – Jets.

* ESPN NFL analyst Mark Schlereth: Jets over Patriots. There are a lot of defensive questions with that Patriots team, but offensively, they are a rhythmic offense. They are not a team that can line up and play smash-mouth with you. If they are off rhythm for even a minute you’re going to have troubles. I like the cornerbacks of the New York Jets to get them off rhythm. 

Personally I think the Patriots can play smash mouth and I know for a fact that this Patriots blog can play it.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think much, but everyone else picks the Patriots to win.

Let’s Get Historical with the Patriots Defense and Third Down

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People are probably sick of me harping on the Patriots third down defense but today I give some historical perspective and show it’s not unprecedented for a team that stinks on third down to win the Super Bowl.

To give some starting context the range of third down percentages generally run from 30% (really good) to about 50% (really bad). Of course the numbers some times skew outside that range but in the big picture sense 90% of the NFL defenses will fall in that range in any given season.

Here are the Patriots third down percentages through the last decade:

  • 2001 – 37% (15th)
  • 2002 – 43% (26th)
  • 2003 – 34% (7th)
  • 2004 – 39% (21st)
  • 2005 – 42% (29th)
  • 2006 – 26% (8th)
  • 2007 – 34% (4th)
  • 2008 – 44% (26th)
  • 2009 – 37% (12th)
  • 2010 – 51% (32nd) (thru 11 games)

To put 2010’s number in even more perspective, the 31st ranked team (Buffalo) is ahead by 6 full points points (45%). Take 6 percentage points off the Bills’ score and they’d be ranked 18th! The Pats are 32nd by a mile.

In the years the Patriots have gone to the AFC Championship game they were 4th, 7th, 8th, 15th and 21st. So it does seem like a good third down defense does correspond somewhat to a Super Bowl contender.

But the Patriots are at the dead bottom right now. And there isn’t necessarily evidence that it’s getting better if you look at the Patriots performance on third downs over the course of the season. It has been consistently inconsistent.

The difference has been key interceptions at key times. Getting turnovers is always nice, but sometimes just forcing an incomplete pass is pretty good too.

Interestingly enough there was a team that won a Super Bowl recently with the lowest ranked third down defense in the NFL. The Colts won a Lombardi Trophy (Peyton Manning’s only one, btw) in 2006 getting off the field just 47% of the time on third down.

So it’s not unprecedented, but for New England to make noise in the playoffs they must continue to force timely turnovers and on the biggest stages when it’s all on the line. Do the Patriots have the playmakers who can make those championship caliber plays?

We’ll know a lot more after Monday night.

Dial something up, Matty P.

Building a Defensive Game Plan For the Patriots to Stop the Jets

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Over the course of these season we’ve charted the defensive game plans and defensive packages the New England Patriots have used. This has been an insightful lesson into what the Patriots do and who they do it with.

This week against the New York Jets the Patriots are presented with some unique challenges. Based on the fact that top interior rushers Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, as well as top nickel corner Jonathan Wilhite missed Thursday practice it’s very possible that the Pats will be without the services of all three.

Of course it’s impossible to predict what Bill Belichick will do, but here’s our best crack at it.

The Patriots were in their base 3-4 defense for 66% of the snaps in week two and I’d bet they will stick to a similar plan on first and second down. I expect this will be the run-stopping personnel:

  • Brace – Wilfork – Warren
  • Ninkovich – Spikes – Mayo – Cunningham
  • McCourty – Meriweather – Sanders – Arrington

Brandon Deaderick should be well rested so expect to see plenty of him on the defensive line as well. Vince Wilfork was used in every spot on the line the first time around, expect that to happen again, especially with Kyle Love’s progression at nose tackle.

The Jets didn’t see much of Cunningham in week two, that is another difference that hasn’t gotten much mention this week. Brandon Spikes will have to be on his toes for play action passes, that has been one of his biggest challenges in his progression.

McCourty will take on Santonio Holmes, while Arrington will take Braylon Edwards.

On third down (short – medium) the Pats will have to get a little creative since with the injuries to Wright, Pryor and Wilhite. I expect the personnel to look like this:

  • Cunningham – Wilfork – Love – Banta-Cain
  • Guyton – Mayo
  • McCourty – Meriweather – Sanders – Chung – Arrington

Wilfork and Love maintain a presence versus the run as the Jets did have some success on the ground the first time around against the Pats sub-packages.

I see the coverage match-ups as so:

  • McCourty – Holmes
  • Arrington – Edwards
  • Chung – Cotchery
  • Guyton – Keller
  • Mayo – Tomlinson

In third and longs, with a lesser threat of a run, the Patriots could bring in Darius Butler and Dane Fletcher for a dime package that looks as such:

  • Cunningham – Love – Banta-Cain
  • Fletcher – Mayo – Guyton
  • McCourty – Arrington – Meriweather – Sanders – Chung – Butler

Arrington has been used as a blitzer from this package and that’s a wrinkle the Pats could throw at Mark Sanchez. Fletcher can be used as a spy on both Sanchez or Ladainian Tomlinson, and could even be employed in the nickel package in such a role should the Pats reduce to three lineman. He will also blitz at times.

The thought of Butler lining up on Edwards could bring horrible flashbacks from week two, hopefully he’d be up to the challenge.

If the Patriots are missing their top two interior rushers in Pryor and Wright it will certainly put pressure on Gerard Warren (who had a good game week two), Deaderick, Love and Wilfork to generate some pressure up the middle on Sanchez. If he’s allowed to sit on “the spot” and get comfortable he will pick the Patriots secondary apart like most teams have this season.

Based on the game tape they’ve seen, it’s probably a somewhat safe assumption that the Jets are expecting similar personnel packages as I’ve laid out here. Of course the execution of coverages and disguises are what truly make a defense work, and that will be in the hands of the Patriots coaching staff and their players.

CHFF Quality Wins: Pats vs. Jets Comparison

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So against quality teams the Patriots are 5-1, while the Jets are 2-2. The Pats average 28.5 points for, 22.7 points against. The Jets average 17.0 points for, 14.0 points against. 

So say what you will about the Pats defense but 6 of their 11 games have been against good teams. If the playoffs started today the Jaguars and Jets would be the only AFC playoff teams the Patriots haven’t beaten.

If the Pats win Monday Night and the Colts rebound and win the AFC South, New England will have beaten every AFC playoff participant. Sorry Kansas City, I think the Chargers are taking the AFC West.