Over the course of these season we’ve charted the defensive game plans and defensive packages the New England Patriots have used. This has been an insightful lesson into what the Patriots do and who they do it with.
This week against the New York Jets the Patriots are presented with some unique challenges. Based on the fact that top interior rushers Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, as well as top nickel corner Jonathan Wilhite missed Thursday practice it’s very possible that the Pats will be without the services of all three.
Of course it’s impossible to predict what Bill Belichick will do, but here’s our best crack at it.
The Patriots were in their base 3-4 defense for 66% of the snaps in week two and I’d bet they will stick to a similar plan on first and second down. I expect this will be the run-stopping personnel:
- Brace – Wilfork – Warren
- Ninkovich – Spikes – Mayo – Cunningham
- McCourty – Meriweather – Sanders – Arrington
Brandon Deaderick should be well rested so expect to see plenty of him on the defensive line as well. Vince Wilfork was used in every spot on the line the first time around, expect that to happen again, especially with Kyle Love’s progression at nose tackle.
The Jets didn’t see much of Cunningham in week two, that is another difference that hasn’t gotten much mention this week. Brandon Spikes will have to be on his toes for play action passes, that has been one of his biggest challenges in his progression.
McCourty will take on Santonio Holmes, while Arrington will take Braylon Edwards.
On third down (short – medium) the Pats will have to get a little creative since with the injuries to Wright, Pryor and Wilhite. I expect the personnel to look like this:
- Cunningham – Wilfork – Love – Banta-Cain
- Guyton – Mayo
- McCourty – Meriweather – Sanders – Chung – Arrington
Wilfork and Love maintain a presence versus the run as the Jets did have some success on the ground the first time around against the Pats sub-packages.
I see the coverage match-ups as so:
- McCourty – Holmes
- Arrington – Edwards
- Chung – Cotchery
- Guyton – Keller
- Mayo – Tomlinson
In third and longs, with a lesser threat of a run, the Patriots could bring in Darius Butler and Dane Fletcher for a dime package that looks as such:
- Cunningham – Love – Banta-Cain
- Fletcher – Mayo – Guyton
- McCourty – Arrington – Meriweather – Sanders – Chung – Butler
Arrington has been used as a blitzer from this package and that’s a wrinkle the Pats could throw at Mark Sanchez. Fletcher can be used as a spy on both Sanchez or Ladainian Tomlinson, and could even be employed in the nickel package in such a role should the Pats reduce to three lineman. He will also blitz at times.
The thought of Butler lining up on Edwards could bring horrible flashbacks from week two, hopefully he’d be up to the challenge.
If the Patriots are missing their top two interior rushers in Pryor and Wright it will certainly put pressure on Gerard Warren (who had a good game week two), Deaderick, Love and Wilfork to generate some pressure up the middle on Sanchez. If he’s allowed to sit on “the spot” and get comfortable he will pick the Patriots secondary apart like most teams have this season.
Based on the game tape they’ve seen, it’s probably a somewhat safe assumption that the Jets are expecting similar personnel packages as I’ve laid out here. Of course the execution of coverages and disguises are what truly make a defense work, and that will be in the hands of the Patriots coaching staff and their players.
