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3 GIFs that Defined Patriots Win Over Colts

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Lots of great plays to choose from this week, but here are three that summed up the game most succinctly in my view.

We start off with a carry on third-and-1 in the first quarter that Jonas Gray took for 20 yards. The Pats had struggled in recent weeks when running ball on short yardage third downs. Against Denver and Chicago they were 0-for-3 in those situations.

But this play illustrates the kind of night it was going to be: Gray running roughshod over the Colts and the Pats converting 9-of-13 third downs.

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Next, we skip to the fourth quarter, with the Pats up by eight, still anyone’s game. Brady finds Brandon LaFell, who makes a ridiculous catch to take the Pats into scoring range to put the game away. LaFell has been the player the Patriots have lacked since Randy Moss. Not to say LaFell is Moss-esque, but he’s the first physical mismatch at receiver the Pats have had since him. Add in circus catches like this and it’s easy to see why Brady has finally found a free agent wide receiver he likes for the first time since 2007.

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I could’ve chosen quite a few third-down stops, or even the McCourty interception, but instead we’re going with this game-sealing fourth-down stop. Reggie Wayne has put some final fourth-quarter daggers in our backs plenty of times over the last decade, but this time Darrelle Revis sticks with him like glue and forces the incompletion.

This Patriots defense is finally no longer the weak link, as it has been since 2010. Now they’re every bit the strength the offense is.

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And of course, I couldn’t not put this play by Gronk up. Just the ultimate exclamation point. 

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Previous Three GIFs:

Denver Broncos

Chicago Bears

New York Jets

@ Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

@ Minnesota Vikings

@ Miami Dolphins

Pats Posits: The Merciless Patriots are Back

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There was plenty of talk last week about how the Patriots hadn’t beaten a playoff opponent on the road since 2011, and even then it was the Tebow-led Broncos. So there’s no question, this was the biggest road win since 2010’s 39-26 demolition of the Steelers.

Hard to remember a bigger set of back-to-back wins than the two we’ve just seen, against the other two best teams in the AFC. Yes, we’re all feeling pretty good about the Patriots today, but the hard road continues, with Detroit coming to town and then a trip to Green Bay for a potential Super Bowl preview matchup.

Here are the things that stuck out to me about last night’s win…

This game wouldn’t have even been close if Brady hadn’t been so bad in the first half. Those two interceptions were both really poor decisions, the kind of thing we don’t see out of TFB.

But the good news is that this Patriots team is unflinching. Even when they’ve had bad plays the last two games – like the poor end of the first half last night, or the interception to start the second half against the Broncos – they’ve come right back out with dominant drives. They don’t blink, in a way that isn’t as common for a Patriots team as you might think.

There’s just something about this team that plays angry, with something to prove. They are merciless in a way reminiscent of 2007, and that’s a very good sign.

The biggest questions about this team coming in were whether they could really pound the football when the power run game was required and if they were the kind of fearless team that could beat a good quarterback in his home stadium.

Both were answered with a resounding yes against the Colts.

One of the keys to the bye week was doing some self-analysis and getting the guys who have been thrust into the fire more time to get up to speed. I thought we might see a little more Jonas Grey in this one but obviously I didn’t expect him to suddenly look like LeGarrette Blount circa last year.

This of course tells you how Belichick feels about the Colts’ run defense. Spoiler – he thinks they suck.

Gray’s emergence really rounds this offense out into probably the most balanced attack since 2007. And it’s not just Gray who proved something last night, so did the offensive line, especially in the the short yardage situations where they’ve struggled all year.

The Pats ran the ball 15 times with 1-5 yards to go and picked up a first down 13 times. They hadn’t done that more than four times in a game yet this season.

Seeing what a difference healthy Gronk makes just makes me wonder what could’ve been the last three playoff runs if he had been in the lineup at full strength. He changes the entire offense, not only with his play, but with the energy he brings.

If Gronk is healthy to the final snap this season, it will be in the Super Bowl.

As for the defense, it starts with how they stopped the run. The Colts had 19 yards rushing on 17 attempts. That’s 1.1 yards-per-carry. Seriously. Not a typo. 1.1.

Run defense was the biggest concern with this defense earlier in the season. Miami gashed them for 191 yards on the ground. The Chiefs had 207.

I never thought it was time to panic. What I saw were just physical mistakes like missing tackles or losing contain. Now they’re not missing those tackles and keeping contain and the run defense is light years better.

Now we see that those who wanted to judge how good Revis is after the Bills and Jets games were a little premature. Revis’ impact the last three weeks, against very good quarterbacks has been on display and it’s time to start banging the “long-term extension” drum.

Like many Pats pundits, I thought Browner would stay as an outside corner this season, but after the last two games it’s clear the Patriots want to use him against receiving tight ends, even in the middle of the field.

Thought Alan Branch played hard in his 15 snaps and was a good compliment to Vince Wilfork inside. When Siliga gets back they can ease Wilfork’s load a bit and try to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 

Really started to see some burst and power from Dominique Easley. He’ll be one to focus on for the All-22 review. If he can get some interior pass rush going in concert with how the defensive backs are playing, look out.

Nothing against Jerod Mayo, but I just like the Dont’a Hightower Patriots defense better than the Mayo defense. Hightower moves incredibly well for his size, is a physical tackler, and really, I think he has better instincts than Mayo in the passing game.

And Jamie Collins seems to keep getting better each week. Granted these last two games play right into Collins’ style, but he’s been much better against the run than he was early in the year.

At this point it’s hard not to want to just shut it down for the season in an effort to keep everyone healthy. Because at this moment it feels like that’s the only thing that could really keep the Pats from being the favorites to represent the AFC in Glendale in February.

We know what can happen all too well – Andre Carter going down in December of 2011, losing Gronk each of the last three years… There’s a ton of football left and hopefully the Football Gods will be nice to the Patriots this year.

But for right now, in late November, the Patriots sit atop the football world and all is right.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 at Indianapolis Colts

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These are the games that define your season. The Patriots have had plenty of success at home, against the good and the bad, but on the road, in their recent house of horrors (4th and 2, SB46), against a team that badly wants to beat them to prove they’re “elite”… this is where a good Pats team can prove they’re great.

The last time we saw the Patriots, they were clicking on all cylinders against the Broncos and getting all the bounces. That tends to happen less often on the road.

It’s not surprising that Rodney Harrison said earlier this week that Belichick is treating this like a playoff game. Maybe it doesn’t have the same buzz as Brady vs. Manning, but this game is every bit as big as far as the AFC goes, and it will definitely have an impact on the playoff seedings.

What do the Pats have to do to get out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a win?

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats have had an extra week to do some self-reflection so there could be some new wrinkles, or perhaps some expanded roles, for guys who got here late.

While Jonas Grey has shown some decent power, Shane Vereen is essentially the lead back now. Since Stevan Ridley went down, Vereen has played 65 percent of the snaps. With Gronk drawing coverage, things have only been getting easier for Vereen in the passing game. Look for him to be a key contributor.

The Pats’ success with play action has been well-documented this week. For all the talk of the two tight end sets of 2011 and 2012, now the Pats are having success with fullback James Develin and/or Michael Hoomanwanui joining Vereen in the backfield. Simply put, the threat of a fullback/halfback tandem has been enough to put defenses on their toes against the run game and that has helped the passing game. The Patriots have a miserable ground attack, Football Outsiders has them 31st in rushing DVOA.

The Colts should focus on two things – stopping Rob Gronkowski and pass coverage. Force the Pats to beat them running the ball or squeezing it in tight windows to someone other than their dominant tight end.

Will the Pat take the cheese and run the ball? This could be a game that tells us a lot about their balance on offense. But it’s a passing league and in a dome the conditions are perfect, so look for this to be a Vereen/Edelman/LaFell heavy attack.

Defensive Gameplan

The bye week was much-needed for the Patriots defense because it gives in-season newcomers likes Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas and Casey Walker a little extra time to get up to speed.

The Pats had Ayers in a full-time edge role against the Broncos and I can’t see why that would change now, the only other option is to play the injured Dominique Easley out of position.

Jamie Collins had a breakout game against the Colts last year in the playoffs and there’s every reason to think he’ll once again be a big key. Despite some knocks on him in the run game early this season, he’s looked better recently, likely due to his thigh getting fully healthy. Collins was drafted for games like these.

As always the big question is how the Pats deal with explosive deep threat T.Y. Hilton, old nemesis Reggie Wayne and the Colts’ strong duo of tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There’s little question that Hilton will get over-the-top focus, so is it worth using Revis on him? Perhaps letting Browner kill him at the line, while putting Revis on Wayne is a better use of resources. 

Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower and Collins will have their work cut out for them, not just with the tight ends, but with resurgent running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has over 700 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns this season.

Disguise, and forcing Andrew Luck into the kind of mistakes he’s made in his first two games against the Pats are key, but those games were in Foxborough and Luck cannot be counted on to hand the game over in Indy.

This one will take a total defensive effort just like the Broncos game did. Do the Pats have another one of those in them, this time on the road?

It’s a great test.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Keep the Gronk Times Rolling: The Colts are 29th in DVOA covering tight ends so that’s an area to attack. However I believe the Colts will give extra attention to Gronkowski, even if it comes at the expense of weakening their defense elsewhere. Still, it doesn’t really matter. Gronk makes plays no matter how many guys are on him and there’s no reason to shy away from him now.

2. Stop Bradshaw In Sub: I could probably write the same keys every week for the Patriots – stop the run in sub-defense and protect Tom Brady. The matchups at wide receiver versus the Pats’ secondary are favorable, but it’s Ahmad Bradshaw who could ruin the game. The defensive tackles and ends must build the wall and contain him, while the linebackers must stick with him in pass coverage. Even giving up a bomb or two to Hilton is preferable to letting Bradshaw put up 150 yards of offense.

3. Fast Start on Offense:  I have a feeling this one is going to be a high-scoring affair and the Pats would be well-suited to get some points on the board early. So far, they’ve had really good in-game perseverance this year – bouncing back after slow starts and mistakes in recent weeks, but it would be preferable to avoid the drama of trying to come back on a Colts team that specializes in comebacks.

4. 60 Minutes: Along those same lines, this one is going to come down to the end and no lead is safe against Andrew Luck in Indy. If the Pats snag a lead for the second time in two games, they might be feeling pretty good about themselves and take their foot off the gas.  That’s just what the Colts love. The Pats must finish.

5. Win: The Pats lost to the Panthers coming out of their bye last season, looking flat and needing a late comeback that probably should’ve happened. They should be better prepared and more focused against a conference rival this year.

A win would seal the Patriots’ spot atop the AFC, and give them the inside track on a bye, owning a direct tie-breaker over the other two best teams in the conference.

A win over a very good team in a very tough place to play would say even more. 

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Josh McDaniels’ offense has consistently made it difficult for opponents to know if the Patriots will run or pass out of the backfield formation. Of 144 plays run from the setup, the Patriots have run the ball on 84 and used play-action on another 30. That means they have run the ball a fairly balanced 58 percent of the time but have run or sold the run on 79 percent of such formations. That makes it difficult for opponents to diagnose the play call. Their passing game has been even harder to identify, since they used play action on 30 of 60 dropbacks out of the backfield formation. That’s a 50-50 balance, which means opposing defenses needed to prepare equally for either possible outcome on such plays and would have had no statistical advantage in their corner.

Good stuff on the rise of the double backfield set.

Patriots’ new-look offense working – Stats & Info Blog – ESPN

https://www.patspropaganda.com/josh-mcdaniels-offense-has-consistently-made-it/

Patriots vs. Broncos All 22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

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With the bye week I’m taking a little longer to look back at the Broncos game film. So let’s put a final bow on what is hopefully not the best win of the season (but very well might be).

Some interesting twists on the first drive – Gronk staying in to block Demarcus Ware stood out. Especially because they ended up having to check down on the play, would’ve thought they’d take a shot when not putting Gronk into a route.

When Brady did take a shot on third-and-10 he would’ve had Amendola for the first down. Can’t blame him for trying to hit LaFell, taking a shot in the first quarter is a strategy, even if it isn’t completed.

Impressive run stop by Talib on the first play of the second drive, with the Pats running a big sweep. Talib is underrated as a run-stopper as that one could’ve got a way if he hadn’t tripped Gray up.

Broncos weren’t jamming Gronk much in this one and paid the price for it. Yeah, he’s kind of open here:

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Broncos were faking Cover-1 above, but tipped their hand it was really a Cover-2 look. When Brady sees that it’s too easy.

Edelman has perfected the Wes Welker go-to route, where you fake inside then spin back to the out. So hard to stop.

I do think the play below was a misread by Tyms, who got hung up on the jam and didn’t run the out. That’s where Brady threw to, but as you can see, he threw it before Tyms broke.

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Talib trying to jam Gronk, get’s shoved out of the way with one hand.

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Broncos got steamrolled in this one, but they certainly had their moments of solid play on defense. But major credit to the Patriots offensive line. Brady looks very comfortable with them blocking for him now, so you can sense it’s just a matter of time as the Pats kick their second field goal.

Pats didn’t get a lot of push in the running game and if there’s one area I still have concerns about, the power run game is it. It was apparent one one play for no gain after the Ninkovich interception – Wendell pulls around and is stone-cold stopped by Von Miller who then pinched off the running lane. The guard play has been better but I still don’t think we’re in mauler territory with either of these guys.

On Edelman’s touchdown catch, Gronk had the attention of three Bronco defenders. That’s the kind of impact he makes, leaving three of the Pats playmakers with just single coverage.

Brady’s trust with LaFell was clear on the final drive of the first half, throwing a strike as LaFell ran a quick inside slant. He looked like Deion Branch if Branch was six inches taller.

For all those longing for a TJ Ward signing last offseason, I think this game shows what the Pats thought of Ward in coverage as it seems like they attacked him constantly. And not just with Gronk. Any time there was an extended play, Ward lost his man.

Again, here’s the Gronk effect as the Broncos only rush three, yet Vereen is still wide open because three guys are covering Gronk.

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Edelman had a TD called back, but Bruschi was sure celebrating it like he was still on the team.

Closing out the half with a TD to Vereen was so clutch. Such a sign that this offense was clicking on all cylinders in this one. Again, a team meeting around Gronk:

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Second Half

Really not how you want to start the second half off with an interception. In the past, the Pats haven’t been able to overcome those kind of starts. And they were off to a good start with a completion and penalty for Brandon LaFell that got them close to midfield. Say this – they came out aggressive.

On the interception itself, it was an off-balance throw from Brady, how had immediate pressure right in his face. Amendola lept for it, but I won’t put the pick on him. Good pressure from Denver.

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a play action game be so effective without a successful run game.

As we’ve heard all week, Gronk was all but uncoverable in this one.

Just not much to work with here, no blockers getting up the second level. Credit to the Denver DL.

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It’s really quite insane how much coverage Gronk pulls. To say he improves the entire offense is an understatement.

A field goal on the second drive was really huge. I had nightmares of a 28-27 final at halftime. But to bounce back and get points on a long drive after the Broncos got a touchdown off the interception was big.

Then came Browner’s interception. Complimentary football at its best.

A touchdown to LaFell on a slant on the next play and the blowout was on. Amazing how fast it went from almost being a game, to not being one.

Monster drive when the Pats took over with 5:50 left in the quarter, one that would take us into the fourth quarter. You can’t draw it up any better.

Brady converted a 3rd-and-11 to Danny Amendola, continuing his trend of converting long third downs. Amendola is getting lost in the shuffle sometimes and has become an really solid slot receiver in this offense. I know his play leaves some wanting more, but comparing him to guys like Jabar Gaffney is more apt and he’s coming through in clutch moments.

Let’s end this with Gronk toasting Von Miller for the final touchdown. 

What a total team win. Not sure the Pats will get all the breaks like this in a potential rematch, but it’s clear that this might be the most balanced Patriots team in some time.