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Patriots vs. Packers All-22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

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Starting off with the offense this week because I never got a chance to go All-22 on them after the Lions game. Tedy Bruschi mentioned the gameplan called for more downfield passing in this one, so that’s the area I’ll keep an eye on because it sounds kind of crazy to decide the game against Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers is the time to put pressure on your OL.

First Half

Pats open in a 2-RB set with Bolden and Vereen, an instant surprise considering Bolden hasn’t had a carry in what seems like months. Always curious why the Pats pull stuff like this. Is it to instantly give the Packers something to think about? Or perhaps it’s as simple as Bolden has been practicing well. 

Then on the next play they shift gears to a 6 OL with Gronk on a wing and Blount in the backfield power formation. This is such a Pats offense thing to do – testing out matchups, seeing what the Packers counter their groupings with. Tough run by Blount too, burrowing through the pile to get an extra 3 yards.

Pats sub in Vereen/Wright on the next play and the Packers counter with their nickel. That has run written all over it, yet Vereen only gets 2 yards. Results like this are partially why the Pats “got away from the run”.

Then comes the dreaded hurry-up run on third-and-2 to Blount that gets stuffed. Simply put the Packers were ready and their defensive line was too much for the Pats’ offensive line here. And we’re punting.

Next possession and the Pats open in the Vereen/Wright package again. Play action works on the LBs, and LaFell has separation but the CB closes quickly and breaks the pass up. Good recovery.

They stick with this grouping, but spread the field on the next play, sending Gronk out wide after keeping him in to block last play. He picks up five yards with the catch, but no YAC. Vereen might’ve been an interesting target here with Clay Matthews in space covering him.

On third down, same package, Brady finds Edelman but he’s tackled just short. Packers made more of these kind of plays. Nice job by Stork picking up Matthews one-on-one as he blitzes. Punting again…

Back to power for the third possession, as Cannon declares eligible with Blount in the game. Packers go back to their base.  Cannon gets olayed by Peppers, who closes down and makes the tackle, but Solder got no push either.

Pats pull Cannon for Hooman and the Packers stay in base as Brady finds Gronk for 29 yards, their first big play of the day. Great protection here.

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Vereen comes in, as Pats go to a Double Y with Gronk/Hooman to one side, Edelman/LaFell to the other. Packers go to nickel. Brady climbs the ladder to avoid the edge rushers and finds Hooman for his annual catch. Gronk took all the attention from him.

Pats bring in Bolden/Wright on the next play and Bolden picks up 12 yards on Just a ton of space and some actual YAC from Bolden.

Pats run the exact play again and Bolden takes it in for the score. Love when the Pats do that. Great pulling block by Wendell to make it happen.

Pats get the ball back with 5:54 remaining in the half, down 16-7.

They wanted to take a shot here, rolling with third tackle Cannon and Blount and then using play action. However Brady’s arm/ball is hit as he throws. Edelman wasn’t really open anyway.

After a nice gain of 12 yards to Tim Wright and an incompletion to Edelman, the Pats go to the WR screen to Edelman and pick up 17. I like those plays when used like this – occasionally. They haven’t gotten to overreliant on the screens this year, but I’d like to see more of them to Vereen.

After another play to Edelman that picked up 5, Brady finds Vereen with Matthews in coverage on him and it goes for 26. Was waiting for that matchup to get exploited.

Now comes the Power I with Develin leading the way for Blount, but it only picks up 5. Packers closed well at the second level, but the blocking up front for NE was good at the point of attack. Just couldn’t get that extra block to spring Blount on the second level.

Third-and-3 from the 13 at Brady finds Gronk on a square in from the outside. Gronk had been quiet on this drive until now but that’s his second catch running the square in route from the outside. So hard to stop him on that route for a cornerback.

Hate the 2nd-and-goal from the 7 call –  a draw to Vereen. Not his game at all. By the 3 yard line there were 3 Packers waiting for him.

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Comes down to a third-and-goal and Brady finds LaFell for the TD. Just a great route by LaFell and perfect throw by Brady, who looked to Gronk in the middle first, but he was triple covered.

Should’ve been just a two point game going into the half, but we’ll see why it wasn’t tomorrow in the defensive film breakdown…

Second Half

Is there a worse way to start off a second half than with a holding penalty and then burning a timeout two plays later? Slow starts have haunted this team in the past and though they’ve been better this year, it really puts the offense in a hole.

It seemed like the Pats WANTED to go max protect and take a shot to Edelman, but yeah, HOLDING!

The next play they switched to the Wright/Vereen package but Connolly was beaten soundly once again and Brady was nearly intercepted. 

Oh and now they complete a pass but Edelman injures his ankle. I forgot how horrible this first possession was. Hard to be much worse in any regard.

Brady had Amendola on third down, but was on the move and couldn’t put the ball where it needed to be. Mostly on Wendell here as he gets beat. If Brady doesn’t have to scramble that’s probably a first down. Ugh…

Pats get the ball back after the missed GB field goal, down 23-14.

It’s back to the Double Y power game with Blount now, but just no seams opened up by Hooman and Solder and the backside pursuit swallows up Blount. The run has not been abandoned yet, but plays like this make you want to abandon it.

Gronk goes into the backfield for the first time I can remember and Brady finds him for a 10-yard gain as he beats Hawk in coverage. Interesting twist I didn’t notice before.

Another power grouping shot, this time to Gronk but it’s not even close.

After a failed draw to Vereen, it’s third-and-9. Packers rush three off the snap, with a fourth coming, but Peppers up the middle is too much for Connolly without help. Falls incomplete. Brady had Gronk, but felt more pressure than there was.

2:21 in the third left, Pats down 23-14 as they get the ball back after a punt *gasp* by the Packers.

Pats go spread and Brady finds LaFell but good tackling holds it to a 4 yard gain. If LaFell breaks that tackle he has 20 yards.

Spread again and here’s the shot to Dobson, who injures his hamstring as the ball falls incomplete. It’s the right throw for Brady, but Dobson got no separation.

Spread for a third-straight down as Edelman draws an illegal contact.

More good tackling from the Packers as LeFell gets just 5 yards on a WR screen on an island.

Blount powers for 13 out of the jumbo package, then for another 14 off the same play, but only because he can break tackles at the second level. His addition to the team was really needed. Why does he run so hard for us? Does he not do it for anyone else? And I don’t think these two plays constitute abandoning the run…

Touchdown to LaFell and what a throw and catch it was. Perfect back shoulder throw without putting it up like a fade. Pats within two and would get one more drive to take the lead…

After a field goal, the Pats get the ball back with 8:35 left, down five. This is prime Brady time.

Spread with Hooman/Bolden is an interesting package to start with, as the Packers counter with their base defense (probably by design from the Patriots). This means Gronk gets a DB covering him out wide. Brady finds him off the curl for 14 and the Pats are in business near their own 40.

Draw to Bolden against the Packers nickel loses yardage. Why is Bolden getting the ball in this situation? That run should’ve been abandoned, or at least gone to Vereen. Gotta keep the clock running though…

After a drop by Vereen, Edelman finds a hole in the zone and picks up 8 yards on third down, setting up a 4th-and-3 attempt at the 50.

Pats go spread, motioning Edelman from outside into the slot, where he gets a stack release with LaFell. Brady needed an extra moment and got it, with Edelman making a fantastic quick-adjustment catch. Packers sent 6 here, credit to the OL and Vereen for picking them up. The drive continues…

Back to the power run game with Blount, but no OL gets to the second level once again.

Another perfect throw picks up a first down to Gronk. Just so hard to stop. Pats at the 33 and closing in…

Blount peels off 12 yards and at this point I’m already wondering what the two-point conversion call will be for the three-point lead.

This where the drive stalls as Blount gets just one yard on the next play. On 2nd-and-9 Brady takes a shot to Gronk in the end zone, and he almost comes up with it. In retrospect, a more conservative play might’ve been better, as this went for everything and left them with a third-and-long.

Brady gets sacked for the first time on third down and that was it for the Patriots. It was just a four-man rush, but Solder was beaten cleanly. Brady seemed to think he had plenty of time as he waited for LaFell’s downfield route to develop. The safe play was to Gronk and he would’ve barreled to a first down.

It seems like there was definitely more of focus on trying to hit the deep balls in this one, but the problem was that they weren’t hitting them. How much was that by design and how much was it that the defense wasn’t showing a lot of multiple deep safety looks, I’m not sure.

The Packers are a sound and tough defense who made the Pats earn just about every yard. Not all defenses have the talent and discipline to play New England like that.

I don’t think the “getting away from the run” storyline holds water at all. They had two of their best runs of the day in the fourth quarter. 

The only criticism in hindsight was trying to target the deep passes too much. It’s not what the Pats do best and on most of the plays where they looked deep, they had underneath guys open.

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Loss to Packers

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This was one of the easier weeks to pick out three plays that defined the game for the Patriots.

As is the case when two good teams meet, it’s the big plays that define the game and the Packers made more of the big plays, especially in the first half when they got a lead and never let go.

It’s not surprising that the first two plays I picked were the longest two plays of the game – both 45 yards apiece.

The first comes on a third-and-two late in the first quarter with the Packers up 6-0. Logan Ryan was in off-man coverage here to accommodate the stack release of the wide receivers. Ryan looks for the out route just a moment long enough for Adam to cut upfield. Rodgers shows great arm strength, winging it off his back foot and placing it perfectly. The Packers would score a touchdown on the next play and the 13-0 hole was built. The Pats talked all week about not letting the Packers get off to one of their signature fast starts. That all went to crap after this play and the one that followed it. A punt here and the game could’ve unfolded a lot differently.

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It won’t be a surprise for anyone to see Jordy Nelson’s touchdown just before the half here. Just unacceptable on so many levels. Yes Revis got beat but McCourty needs to make that tackle, and I’m not even sure the Pats should’ve been in Cover-1 here anyway, though it was the catch-and-run that burned them, not getting beat deep. This was shades of the old Patriots defense – the ones who would always give up points before halftime if there was even close to enough time left. Giving up a touchdown like this is the kind of situational football that will give Belichick an ulcer. A huge momentum play, taking the game from effectively a tie at the half to putting New England in a two-score hole. This would be the last time the Packers would see the end zone in this one, so that’s a small silver lining.

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Finally we close on the only sack the Packers got in the game, but it came at a critical moment, with the Pats on the edge of the red zone, poised to take a late lead. Most Patriots fans were probably pretty confident Tom Brady would deliver a touchdown here, I know I was, but the drive stalled, setting up this third-and-long, a down-and-distance they’ve been successful on lately. 

I’ll need to see the All-22 to know if Brady would’ve had anyone open, but Solder is beaten soundly while Connolly gets beat quickly as well, giving Brady no chance. Tough time for a protection breakdown. It’s moments like this you have to win in the playoffs or else it’s lights out.

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Previous Three GIFs:

Detroit Lions

Indianapolis Colts

Denver Broncos

Chicago Bears

New York Jets

@ Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

@ Minnesota Vikings

@ Miami Dolphins

Pats Posits: A Resolve-Hardening Loss

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Back in the blogging saddle today after my Thanksgiving weekend was ruined by a stomach bug that killed my appetite for the past four days. Perfect timing for that.

Anyway, I can’t remember feeling better about a loss than I do about the Pats’ third one of the season in Green Bay.

Those trying to rush to judgement about anything we “learned” in this one are fooling themselves.  The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL and just as unbeatable at home as the Patriots are. 

Still, the Pats took them down to the wire and showed they’re not the pretenders they might’ve been in years past. It would’ve taken a perfect game yesterday and the Pats did not have a perfect game. 

Really, if you take back Devin McCourty’s poor angle on Jordy Nelson’s long touchdown near halftime, a play he’s made every time this year, and this one would’ve been even closer. 

But most important is the lesson the Patriots should’ve learned yesterday – what it takes to beat the best teams and the kind of effort they’ll need in the playoffs. Even better is that the Pats will stick together as they head directly to San Diego.

That kind of trip, especially after a loss, can really forge a team’s resolve. Now they’ll get a chance to regroup together and they should be a better team for it.

Once again, as we learned in 2007, it’s not about going undefeated in November/December, it’s about putting together three near-perfect games in January/February. 

Of course, the one rub is that they are now clinging to a tie-breaker lead over the Broncos for the top seed in the AFC. With the final quarter of the season to go, their margin for error is zero.

My Pats Posits after the jump…

Posits

The defense was so inconsistent in the two most important areas, in the red zone they stopped the Packers all four times in the red zone, but on third down they gave up first down 10 of 17 times. They had been on a third down tear the last three games, not surprising they fell back to earth against that offense.

So it was just those quick-scoring drives in the first half that were the difference that included big-plays of 45, 32, 28 and 45 yards. Those four plays really won the game for the Packers.

Let’s not forget scoring in the second half was Patriots 7, Packers 3.

The Pats offense was not clicking like they usually do. Some of the problems stem from the interior of the offensive line, who once again played less than their best on a big stage. There’s no quicker way to give Tom Brady and the running game problems that when the guards and center are struggling.

Dan Connolly received a team-worst -5.0 pass blocking grade from PFF. Wendell had a -1.5.

Unfortunately with the way the game unfolded, with the Pats getting behind early, they were never in position to really get their ground game going.

I just don’t know how or why Brandon Bolden was suddenly getting carries again, though he did look good on his touchdown run.

Same thing with Logan Ryan, I don’t know how he continues to see time over Kyle Arrington. Not that either of them, nor Dennard were particularly good.

Once again this game came down to their #3 and #4 receiving options against our #3 and #4 coverage options and they beat us. Specifically Ryan/Arrington on Davante Adams and Patrick Chung on Quarless.

Hard to write a much worse season story for Aaron Dobson who finally got in a game, promptly hurt his hamstring and left the game. Maybe it’s the curse of #17. 

Edelman is really taking a pounding the last couple weeks. I hope the cumulative effect doesn’t add up to something more significant. He could use a break, but he won’t get one until the playoff bye week.

Jamie Collins continues to impress me with how physical he’s playing. He’s taking on blockers with force, especially when blitzing, while he used to try to duck around everyone with his athleticism.

Another solid showing from Hightower, who picked up a sack on a strong blitz.

More credit for the Pats run defense who bottled Eddie Lacy up after the first drive for the most part. Seemed like Hightower/Collins/Chung were in on every run tackle, swarming the ball.

As I kind of expected, this was the game that made everyone realize we need a player like Chandler Jones who can get pressure by himself. Ayers has been solid but he’s not the force Chandler can be. If they can get to a three-man rotation with Ninkovich for the playoffs, it should really benefit the pass rush.

Don’t really understand those complaining about the Pats not blitzing enough. I thought they did a good job picking their spots, but against a great quarterback you can’t just send 5 and 6 rushers every down. The problem was the three they sent couldn’t win the individual matchup to finish Rodgers after the secondary took away his initial reads.

Felt like the offense was a little too top-heavy, and as the Packers did with Adams, they needed someone like Wright, Amendola or Vereen to have a big game. None of those matchups were exploitable it seems.

If the Pats had gotten a lead I shudder at the thought of what Blount would’ve done to the Packers run defense.

Overall it was just nice to enjoy a game of two really good teams going hard at each other. You have to adjust your expectations against a good team and not read too much into the stats. They’re going to make plays and put up points, but it’s about holding them to field goals and getting off the field on third down. The Pats did one of those things consistently.

It’s also nice to not have a “What does it all mean” day today. The Patriots are still a very good team capable of beating anyone in the NFL in any location. 

But I’m glad we won’t have to go through Lambeau again to get to Arizona, that’s for sure.

Patriots vs. Lions All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

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The Patriots turned in another stellar defensive effort against the Lions, not allowing a touchdown for the second time this season. 

The coverage in the secondary is the thing sparking this new and improved Patriots defense, but the front seven are no slouches either, as they’ve been downright dominant in the running game.

They’ll face a great test this weekend in Green Bay, but until then, here are my All-22 thoughts on the defense’s performance against Detroit.

The Lions’ first drive might’ve been their best of the game and it started with a 24-yard WR screen to Golden Tate. Kyle Arrington’s overpursuit is what sprung it, but impressive speed by Dont’a Hightower to run down Tate.

Tate had another nice gain off a rub play that opened just enough space for a perfect pass. They were hitting these early, but not later.

The Patriots base, or “regular” 4-3 defense appeared on this drive, with Patrick Chung coming into the box as is often the case in almost a linebacker role. Casillas and Collins play OLB, but are at the end of the line with Hightower in the middle. We first saw this look in 2009, with six guys along the LOS and one linebacker and safety ready to make the play.

The Pats’ run defense has been among the best in the NFL the last three games, and the reason why is apparent from this regular defense play – no ground given, all taking on blocks with Hightower making the play. Just like you draw it up…

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With Easley out, Chris Jones was the sub-rusher on the interior. Alan Branch had more snaps this week, but it could’ve been somewhat a trickle-down effect of Easley being out and Jones having to take his role over.

Pats double Calvin Johnson with Browner/McCourty on the final third down of the Lions’ first drive, with Revis defending the pass to Golden Tate underneath. Hightower took the RB, while Collins dropped to a short middle zone. Ninkovich/Jones/Ayers pressure was okay.

Impressive back-to-back plays by Browner on the second possession, first causing enough disruption on Calvin to force an incompletion and then coming down and supporting the edge against the run. The Pats DBs have really been great in run support lately.

On Ayers’ third-down sack, Stafford was looking to Tate coming out of a double stacked combination, but Revis got enough of a jam to force Stafford to hesitate. And Stafford probably could’ve made the throw, that kind of indecision crept into his game this day. Ayers had a nice outside-inside move and got under the left tackle to record the sack. Team defense.

Ninkovich recorded a sack on the first play of the next possession, off a great stunt with Alan Branch, who just plowed the guard into the backfield and the running back didn’t touch Ninkovich as he cut in behind. It looked like the Lions were trying to hit Tate on a double-move as Stafford pumps and goes to reload but it’s already too late. And Revis didn’t bite on the double move anyway.

Caught Wilfork talking to Raiola a bit after that sack too, planting the early seeds that would later grow into a cheap shot attempt at the end of the game.

This is a bit blurry but look at how the Pats are taking on blocks and holding their ground against the run and then getting off those blocks to make the tackle. There’s just nowhere for the RB to go.

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Third-and-long, Pats in zone and no one is open. 

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Lions tried to get back to their run game on the next possession and had a bit of success against the Pats, who were in their nickel defense. They had runs of 6, 5, 4, then 0 yards. 

Then comes one of the most frustrating kinds of plays –  a broken play third-down conversion as Stafford slips out of the pocket and Zack Moore misses an open field tackle on him. I wanted to dive at Moore’s knees after that one.

Moore dropped into coverage and the pressure should’ve gotten there, but Moore dropping off killed the edge of the front, allowing Stafford to scramble. Really not sure how Moore misses the tackle, it’s exactly what he’s supposed to do and as straight-on as the come.

Tate picked up 42 yards on the next play as Stafford found him in a hole in the Pats’ zone defense. Collins probably should’ve picked up Tate, but didn’t see him until it was too late. Not out of the question to expect Collins to turn and pick this had he seen Tate earlier.

Impressive goalline stand on the next set of downs, that was made more difficult after a PI call on Chung in the end zone. Lions tried a run left, a fade to Calvin (Revis in coverage), then a fade to Fauria (Chung in coverage). Good tight coverage on both fades, not an easy play to defend especially against big guys like that.

Chung and Hightower are in on pretty much every single running play.

Casillas showed up with good read-and-tackle after Stafford had to take the checkdown to the runningback. Over the top Revis and Browner did a good job playing the Calvin/Tate stack with McCourty over top.

3rd-and-11 and the Pats were in Cover 2 Man. Ninkovich gets the sack as Jones and Higtower crash down on the right side of the line, allowing Nink to loop around and get a clean sack. Too bad Jamie Collins “held”. Drive continues…

Tate picked up 13 yards on a reverse as Hightower lost contain and Chung lost his contain with a couple false steps inside.

A quick bit on tactics – Collins and Hightower are both really good on the line of scrimmage, something the Pats lost the ability to do full time when Mayo went down. However now they’re doing a good job of moving the around and using them in all manners of ways. Both are on the LOS sometimes, both will blitz sometimes. Part of what is making the Pats defense so good is having these two versatile LBs who can do it all.

Good job getting off the field on third-and-3, one of my plays that defined the game. Just perfectly played by Revis who backed up off the line and avoided the stacked receivers trying to rub him off.

Nice gain of 18 on a screen pass to Riddick on the final drive of the first half. Hightower read it well, but Ayers did not as Riddick ran right past him on the way to get the pass. If he reads that right the play is dead.

Stafford just keeps looking more and more unsure on his deep throws as this game goes along, throwing it up off his back foot consistently. The in-time comebacks are about the only thing working for him that he looks comfortable throwing.

It does seem like they were just going after Arrington on every play here on this drive.

The missed field goal, then the Pats turning around and putting up a field goal of their own pretty much sums up what kind of game this was.

Second Half

Quick change to start the third quarter, just like the Broncos game and the Pats defense responds.

Raiola once again getting into it, now with Chris Jones.

Revis with another beauty pass defense, making it look like it ain’t no thang on what would’ve been a long 50+ bomb to Ebron.

Third-and-11 for another one of my plays that defined the game. Stafford throws a strike, but the gang tackling Pats hold him short of the first down. Just love how this defense is swarming the ball with such energy. Fun to watch.

Looks like the Lions were starting to pack it in at this point, with a three-and-out featuring three incompletions. First one hits Tate in the chest, second one the Lions WRs get caught up with themselves on the rub combo as Browner puts Calvin directly into Tate, and on the last one Chung comes in clean on a blitz forcing a bad throw by Stafford.

Next possession opens with a great play action that Ebron flat out drops.

Ugh, third down QB scramble for a first. I hate when that happens so, so much. Great coverage though.

Subtle play by Revis showing his genius as he’s in the slot faking like he’s playing man but really in zone. Sees Stafford wants Fauria on the post and drops perfectly into position to take it away.

Pats have really improved their coverage against stacked releases from earlier in the year. Forcing perfect throw-and-catches to beat them.

I like Sealver Siliga, but it’s looking like Alan Branch is just the better player given his height. Siliga still has long-term potential, but for this year I think he might be taking a back seat.

I also don’t really care about all these penalties the Pats have been racking up, because they’re playing on the edge and that will be more beneficial than the calls that might hurt them. 

Pats’ great coverage continued to close out the game. It’s amazing to see how many times Stafford had to reload/reset after his preferred target was covered. That kind of coverage works magic for the pass rush.

If Chandler Jones comes back, ideally at least for the season finale, it could really put the defense over the top. They’re playing great.

Pats Posits: The Most Balanced Patriots Team Ever?

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It’s not often that I make predictions, but this weekend I had a feeling the Pats would beat the Lions pretty easily. I didn’t think it would quite be the domination that it was, but it seemed clear he Lions didn’t really want to win the game that bad – they packed it in early.

After the Jets game in Week 7, the Pats had lost Chandler Jones and were facing a gauntlet of legit quarterbacks. But the Patriots haven’t blinked. They’ve gone 4-0 since then and been dominant in all three phases of the game.

Only their playoff finish will determine how the 2014 Patriots stack up compared to previous teams, but right now this looks like the most balanced Patriots team we’ve seen since Bill Belichick took over, capable of breaking a game on any side of the ball.

Early in the 2000s the Pats were loaded on defense and had an offense that wasn’t exactly explosive, but made all the clutch plays. The script slowly flipped as the defensive core got old and departed, while Brady and offense hit a historic level of explosiveness, then efficiency and pace.

They met in the middle in 2007, where the offense’s prolific scoring hid the quickly declining defense. In 2010, the defense hit a low point with a dearth of talent giving up tons of yards. Since then the defense has been on a slow track of marginal improvement, but now in 2014, the defense is back to the levels we saw in the early-2000’s.

And I must mention special teams, as they’ve been solid throughout Belichick’s coaching reign, but they’ve seemed to hit a new level this year. It was on display yesterday after a big punt by Ryan Allen and big return from Danny Amendola jump started an offense that started the game with two three-and-outs.

Right now it seems like the only thing standing between the Patriots and Glendale in February will be injuries. If they stay healthy and keep homefield advantage for the playoffs, they’ll be extremely tough to knock off. The Broncos might be the only team who could have a chance in the AFC, and that would depend on non-January-like conditions in Foxboro on gameday.

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Pats Posits

We can talk all about the superlative play of the secondary yesterday, but the tangible effect has been on third down. This is an area I’ve talked about ad nauseum the last five years. The Pats third-down defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL over the time, but over the last three games they’re the third-best third down defense in the NFL.

For the season they’re now 13th overall, they’re highest ranking since 2009.

In recent years, the Pats would have occasional good games on third down, but never did they have the kind of consistency we’ve seen the last month or so.

Yesterday’s game was a head-nodder for me because a lot of things I’ve been waiting for finally happened. Tim Wright became more involved. Danny Amendola showed up again. The team is rounding out and getting contributions all over the place.

It’s nothing short of amazing how much better the Patriots run defense has been compared to earlier in the season. They’re not just good against the run right now, they’re dominant.

In the last three games, they’re giving up an NFL-best 51.0 yards-per-game. Jamie Collins and Akeem Ayers are two guys who are expectedly doing a great job. I expect Ninkovich/Wilfork/Hightower to be good and they’ve been great.

I’m getting 2007 flashbacks a bit for the first time since then, where I just hope the team can still play this well in January and February. We’re used to the Patriots looking good this time of year, but in most years since 2007 there’s always been a weakness that they’ve been able to cover up – an Achilles Heel that we knew could come back to bite them against the good teams.

Not this year. I don’t t know what the weakness of this Patriots team is right now. Before the bye I might’ve questioned their run defense, if their offensive line could get it done against good interior rushers and their ability to win when Gronk and/or Edelman were taken away.

I don’t question either of those things anymore. We’ll see if the Packers can expose something.

I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it – Where have you been the last five years, Brandon LaFell?

Games like yesterday’s were what I was looking forward to when the Patriots signed Revis. It’s been so long since we’ve had a playmaker like him in the secondary. And he makes it look so easy. I really hope this isn’t the only year we get to cheer him on. This offseason will be intense.

It’s somewhat cathartic to see Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung being key players on this defense after they were such whipping boys for the 2010/2011 defensive problems.

It once again goes to experience, one of the most underrated aspects of team-building that gets no credit in the offseason.

Now we turn the page to what will be hyped as a Super Bowl preview. Win or lose the next two weeks will be good Super Bowl prep for the Pats. They’ll have two tough road games, but they’ll also be on the road the entire time for both (they’re heading straight out west after Green Bay).

That kind of experience is a good chance for the team to bond a bit before the stretch run and should get them ready to play in hostile environments against good teams.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 vs. Detriot Lions

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The 8-2 New England Patriots welcome the 7-3 Detroit Lions this weekend in another great test for the streaking Pats, winners of six straight.

The Lions have actually pounded the Patriots pretty good in the 2011 and 2013 preseasons, but those games were in Detroit and without the usual kind of gameplanning that goes into the regular season contests.

Still, the Lions feature an impressive defense and have enough weapons on offense to challenge the Patriots suddenly stout defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats:

Offensive Gameplan

The Lions have the #1 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are 3rd against the pass and 1st against the run, but have they faced the kind of gameplan-oriented offense like the Patriots in non-ideal conditions yet? Nope.

The biggest key to the game might be keeping Ndamukong Suh out of Tom Brady’s face. If there’s one recurring nightmare in the Patriots infrequent losses, it’s pressure coming up the middle early and often. If Brady cannot establish an early rhythm, it could ensure the game stays close well into the second half.

However, this year’s Patriots have shown a remarkable ability to overcome bad plays and bad drives, bouncing back and looking unstoppable, even after looking gross.

Expect the Pats to shift away from the run-heavy approach they took against the Colts and move to a more spread-offense, quick throw approach. 

Once again, Rob Gronkowski will be a key, whether he’s catching the ball or just drawing excessive attention in coverage, opening things up for the other receivers. The Lions are the #1 team in the NFL covering tight ends, that should be put to the test this week.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola could be big keys in the slot, while Brady will take his deep shot to Brian Tyms, with Brandon LaFell keeping the Lions honest on the perimeter.

Shane Vereen should be the running back of choice instead of running Jonas Gray and newly-reunited LeGarrette Blount into the teeth of the Lions’ defense. The Lions are 26th in DVOA covering running backs, so throwing to Vereen makes sense.

Defensive Gameplan

The Lions have the 22nd ranked offense in DVOA, 18th in passing and 30th in rushing, but those numbers don’t match the talent they have, especially in the passing game with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate forming a tough combination to defend.

As is the case every week, the question is who will Darrelle Revis cover. While conventional wisdom might put him on Megatron, the Pats haven’t always used Revis straight-up on the best opposing receiver. 

More often they use him against the quarterback’s safety valve, so there’s certainly a case to be made for using Revis on Tate, and using Browner’s size and length (along with over-the-top help) on Calvin. 

Though Browner is former teammates with Tate, sometimes that kind of familiarity is useful as we’ve seen with Kyle Arrington covering Wes Welker.

The Patriots’ defense has found their stride in recent weeks and going against pass-happy teams like Detroit feeds right into what they are built to stop. 

With newfound confidence in their defensive backs, the Pats are more willing to send extra blitzers like Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Dominique Easley has also shown signs of recovering his elite burst and could be in for a big game.

Points of Emphasis

1. Trim the Bush: Tate and Johnson are very good players and will cause issues, but the Pats secondary is up to the challenge. Where the game could be lost is if Reggie Bush gets hot, both running against the sub defense and in the passing game. Jamie Collins figures to draw a fair amount of responsibility to cover Bush in the passing game, but it will be up to the front four contain Bush on the ground.

2. Spread ‘Em:  These are the kind of games that will bring back memories of 2007 as the Pats should get all their receivers involved. If guys like Tim Wright and Danny Amendola can snag some catches early, it will all start to unravel for Detroit, who is undoubtedly hoping to take Gronk out of the game and force the Pats to win with Edelman as the main passing focus. 

3. Top of the Pocket: Games like this are a great test for the interior of the Pats offensive line, especially rookie Brian Stork. This is where the game will be won or lost. If Brady can’t step up into the pocket things could get interesting. He’ll want to unload the ball quickly, but the only way to stop it is if there’s immediate pressure in his face. That cannot happen.

4. Force Throws to the TEs: Expect the Pats to take away the deep ball to Tate and Johnson, forcing Stafford to check down to his tight ends. While it might be by design, the Pats are 31st in DVOA covering tight ends. As we saw last week with Coby Fleener going off, but the Colts still losing, we could see Brandon Pettigren, Eric Ebron or even Joe Fauria catch a bunch of balls. Even if that’s happening, it’s playing into the Patriots game plan.

5. Win – I think this is the week the Pats expose the reality of the Lions. They’re a good team, but I just don’t think they have what it takes to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. The Pats certainly took a look at how the Lions dominated them in recent preseason games and should be motivated to send a message. With the Packers looming next weekend, moving to 9-2 while maintaining the top record in the AFC is a great way to enter the post-Thanksgiving stretch, a time when they should really start playing their best football.