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Pats Posits: Bring On The Ravens

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In Bill Belichick’s episode of A Football Life, which had inside access to the Patriots’ 2009 season, he told his team before their regular season matchup with the Ravens that this was a team that was “in it for the long haul. I know it. You know it. They know it”.

Belichick probably didn’t realize how true his words were. This will be the fourth time the Ravens have come to Foxboro in the last six playoff seasons, and really, they’ve outplayed the Patriots in all of them despite having lost the 2011 AFC Championship.

In 2009, the Ravens hit the Patriots in the mouth on the first play, as Ray Rice went 80-plus yards for a touchdown on a carry right up the middle. 

In 2012, the Patriots simply had no answer for Joe Flacco in the second half as he marched right down the field on them, outscoring the home team 21-0 in the last two quarters.

The Patriots broke up a potential Ravens game-winning touchdown in the end zone in 2011, and got a huge break when the game-tying field goal was missed. That was New England’s only win and it was far from convincing that the Pats were the better team.

This is what has a lot of Patriots fans skittish about the Ravens coming to Gillette this Saturday. The main points of concern are Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs matching up with the Patriots’ tackles – Nate Solder, who has regressed in his fourth season, and Sebastian Vollmer, who recovered after a rough start to have a solid season.

The Patriots’ offensive line is always a huge focus of a playoff run, because let’s face it, every time New England has bowed out of the playoffs, it’s been a leaky line, usually in the middle, that is the culprit.

The way I see it, Solder and Vollmer are going to have to have great games at some point if the Pats are going to win the Super Bowl. Whether it’s this week against the Ravens or next week against the Broncos (hopefully), there will be no free passes.

Otherwise, this playoff matchup really flips the script on what we saw from 2009-2012 when these two teams played. 

The biggest difference for Tom Brady is Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are no longer around. I think a lot of Baltimore’s “fearlessness” we hear being talked about with them coming to Foxboro, was from Reed and Lewis.

Reed was the best free safety in the history of the game in Belichick’s view. A player he and Brady would dedicate entire meetings to. The lack of that kind of player, and the time needed to focus on him, is an immediate bonus for New England.

Baltimore has a good defense, led by their front seven, but it’s not the kind of Hall of Fame defense we saw two years ago that was ready to meet Brady head on. Pats O vs. Ravens D was a push back then, now the advantage is on the Patriots side.

We saw a taste of this in 2013’s Patriots blowout of the Ravens in Baltimore. And that was with Logan Mankins playing left tackle and no Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Brandon LaFell or Tim Wright.

On the other side of the ball, there is no comparison to this Patriots defense now and the patchwork squad they were putting on the field from 2009-2012. This is now a defense with one of the best secondaries in the game and a front seven that is just hitting its prime.

Can anyone really argue that the Ravens’ offense now is better than it was with Ray Rice, Anquan Bolden and even Dennis Pita in their prime?

I love that the Patriots will get a shot at ending the Ravens season and putting an end to the Ravens’ dominance over them of late in the playoffs. There’s something about the Ravens that will immediately get the Patriots attention and that’s a good thing.

Not that the Pats wouldn’t be locked in on another opponent, but with the Ravens there’s just a little something extra.

As much as some might want an easier first playoff game, it’s going to take three great games from the Patriots, regardless of their opponent. They’ve been up for every challenge the last two months and this game will be no different.

It will be a fun week of hype, but remember, this isn’t 2009-2012.

Pats Posits: If Not Now, When?

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I’m not sure how much we really need to talk about yesterday’s game against the Bills. The only thing that really matters is that the Pats got out of it without a catastrophic injury. Yeah, a couple guys limped off but I’d think with the bye week, everyone should be ready to go for January 10th’s playoff opener.

So let’s talk a bit about 2014 with today’s Posits, a season where the Patriots returned to a level of dominance not seen since 2007. As I’ve said before, the Patriots’ teams of 2010-2013 always felt flawed on the defensive side of the ball with a dash of limitations on offense.

2010 was the best example of this – a defense that had to rely on turnovers to preserve wins and an offense that was almost entirely based on the short passing attack.

The 2014 Patriots finally turned the page to a defense that can win simply with their red zone prowess, while their offense can challenge all levels of defense. They still have the deadly “scalpel” (aka dink and dunk) that they can run at a devastating pace, but the health of Gronk, emergence of Brandon LaFell and rotating backfield have given the Pats some new dimensions.

2013 was about overcoming injuries. We knew the Pats were on borrowed time, so when they lost in the AFC Championship in Denver, no one was overly disappointed. The 2013 team took things as far as they could.

But now our expectations are high and it’s hard to to think “if not now, when?”.

The 2014 Pats are not without their weaknesses, but short yardage situations on both sides of the ball are hardly glaring problems. They also appear to be susceptible to tight ends, and can have periods of ineffectiveness on offense, but overall this Patriots team is as strong going into the playoffs as we’ve seen under Bill Belichick.

Some quick hit thoughts on the players and schemes of 2014 before we jump into the playoffs.

The emergence of Hightower and Collins as legitimate NFL stars will be somewhat overshadowed by the Revis and Browner of it all. They came of age against the Broncos where the Pats started really employing double A gap pressure (or at least faking it) with their linebackers. I’m left wondering how the rotations would’ve worked if Mayo hadn’t gotten hurt, because I can’t imagine taking Collins or Hightower off the field. Mayo will be a major storyline this offseason, but I’d be fine to turn the page to Hightower being the full-time defensive leader. He might not be as fast as Mayo but his physical strength makes more of an impact than Mayo’s speed. I also think Hightower just has a better feel in coverage that makes up for that extra step Mayo might have.

Collins is right there with Hightower, and learning to be patient might be the best advancement of his game this year. He has the speed and athleticism that allow him to diagnose in that split second post-snap, then fly to the ball. Collins can do it all and he’ll need to be an impact player this next month for the Pats to make the Super Bowl.

They have to re-sign Revis. Belichick and Brady don’t have forever and when you have a corner like Revis in house, one who can be the center of an entire defensive game plan, you have to keep him.

Sealver Siliga and Chris Jones built on their 2013 seasons and both seem like long-term building blocks on the DL. Siliga especially is a great find and he should be able to ease the inevitable transition from Wilfork.

For Wilfork to come back from an Achilles tear like he did was amazing. And now, with a solid DT rotation around him, he should be fresher for the playoffs than he was from 2010-2012, when the Pats effectively ran him into the ground.

Chandler Jones’ injury was unfortunate, but how the Pats got by with Akeem Ayers without him was pretty amazing too. Ayers has seen his role subside since Chandler’s return, but he’ll be a big part of the playoffs against heavy passing teams. 

The offensive line might be the headline weakness of the 2014 season, led by Nate Solder’s regression Dan Connolly should hopefully be healthy for the playoffs and his presence is much-needed. But after center, I don’t think any OL spot is off the table this offseason.

Between Edelman/Gronk/LaFell/Wright, the major pieces for the Pats offensive weaponry is in good shape, but the running back position will be one to watch this offseason. I really have no clue how that will all play out. Do Ridley/Vereen come back? Is Jonas Gray a building block? How much of a role can Blount play? Great questions,  and maybe the answer lies in the draft.

Upgrading the SS spot will be another area to look at this offseason. Chung started strong and is good against the run, but he was exposed in pass coverage more and more as the season went along. Tavon Wilson seemed to be getting more and more looks as well. Maybe he’s an option. But someone with size who can cover would be ideal, not that those guys grow on trees.

Still, Revis will be the first chip to fall this offseason, followed closely by McCourty. Both are vital in my view.

Heading out of town for an overnight trip, then I’ll be back later this week with the final three GIFs of the season and some early playoff thoughts.

Here’s to a great 2014, with more big wins, especially on the road, than we’ve had in a while around here. Expectations are sky high now, but I know the Pats will bring it.

Pats Posits: I’ll Miss Rex (Kind of, but not really)

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Waking up to another vacation day, with the Pats locking up homefield advantage and the best overall record in the NFL once again, well, it doesn’t get much better than this. In a way, the season is over and it’s been a successful one, on the level with the best seasons of Bill Belichick’s tenure.

 I truly feel the Patriots have as good a shot at the Super Bowl this year as they’ve had. That excites me and scares me.

There will be plenty of time to worry though. For now, let’s wrap up some remaining thoughts from the Jets game. I expected that to be a tough game, but I didn’t think the Pats’ offense would look quite as bad as it did. 

Sure, Rex has almost always given Brady problems and the Jets front four are definitely good and Dan Connolly was out, but still… it’s a little unnerving to see them be so ineffective. Their 231 yards was the lowest output of the season. 

More on that and all the other takeaways in the Posits:

It was a pretty solid day for the defense, at least when it mattered. They seemed to be playing a little more zone as they’ve done the past two weeks, and without much pass rush, Geno was picking us apart for a good deal of the game.

But the Pats’ defense came through in the clutch, with another great performance (0-3) in the red zone. The Pats are 6th overall in opponent red zone TD percentage, and the best team in the league over the last three games.

They’re 16th overall in third down defense, but 5th in the last three games. So yes, it would seem the Pats’ defense is playing its best ball at the right time of year in the critical situations.

As for the offense, it’s understandable that there are some concerns but the offensive line isn’t a bigger problem to me now than it’s been all this season. 

The struggles against the Jets were mostly communication, which is somewhat understandable with the Jets’ complicated blitzes and the inexperience at  left guard and center. Connolly hasn’t been great physically, but he does ensure everyone will be on the same page and that is worth a lot.

This season has been a turning point for me, because I’ve ignored special teams too much. They’ve been one of the Patriots’ biggest strengths but I haven’t written enough about them. You look at the games the Pats have won by a thin margin and almost always it was a big special teams play, or even just consistency in the kicking game, that has made a big difference.

There’s no question – the Patriots are incredibly hard to beat at home, and their excellent road play this year has only helped prepare them to win the only road game they could possibly still play – the Super Bowl in Arizona.

I can’t quite wrap my brain around returning to the site of Super Bowl 42. The memory of that game is still burned in my brain and I can’t see that stadium without flashing to David Tyree. While it would be nice to have a shot to rewrite those memories, it’s a little scary too.

After last night, I sure don’t feel as scared of the Broncos as I once was. I don’t want to jump on the “Manning’s lost it” bandwagon, but I think Denver could struggle to get out of the first round, especially if the weather is bad.

We know the Pats can beat any time in the AFC at Gillette Stadium. As for the NFC, let’s just hope it’s a bloodbath.

Look for the Pats to do some resting of players this week against Buffalo. But I’d like to see the offensive line get their house in order against one of the best DLs in the NFL in the Bills.

Here’s to a great regular season! If you only determine your football satisfaction by how the team does in the playoffs you’re almost never going to be satisfied. But this regular season was incredibly satisfying. There were ups and downs, but as the season progressed we saw some of the best all-around football we’ve ever seen in New England. 

There doesn’t seem to be that one critical flaw this year like in recent years past – the one thing the Pats were able to hide all year that could come back to bite them in January or February. They have their weaknesses in small specific areas, but this is a balanced team that can beat you any number of ways.

As a defense guy, just getting to watch a defense that can win games again was incredibly satisfying. They’ll have to keep it up in the playoffs, but for now we can relish another superlative season.